Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1745
Technological development: investment structure impact
Статья научная
The study is aimed at determining the impact of a technology investment structure on changes in technological effectiveness of the economy that should be taken into account in the medium and long term. The research methodology includes structural and empirical analysis of the distribution of investment between new and old technologies, econometric models of technological level and investment in new and old technologies that have undergone a reasonable selection procedure according to the principle of best reliability; involves formulation of general principles and substantiation of technological development goals for the medium and long term. The technology structure determines potential of technological developmentanditsdynamics. It is based on realized medium- and long-term goals and search for responses to competitive challenges. The work results in confirmation of the investments structure influence on the overall level of technological effectiveness of the economy, different sensitivity of investment in new and old technologies to changes in risk and interest rates. For Russian economy the analysis of two sectors, particularly manufacturing and transactional raw materials ones, shows that with interest rates gone up, we observe faster decrease in investment in new technologies than those in old technologies, the level of manufacturability goes down as well. Therefore, the task of Russian economy technological renewal can be solved with regard to risk reduction measures in the manufacturing sector and application of differentiated interest rates in a sectoral perspective, ensuring its overall reduction. Using the taxonomic analysis method, the author identifies key models of technological development (at a theoretical level) according to characteristics of the structure of investment in new and old technologies. This helps specify economic policy measures in terms of the impact of investments distribution on the technological level, as well as their dynamics, that is, evaluate contribution of investments in various types of technologies to the overall rate of economic growth.
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Technological sovereignty projects as a tool for innovative development of the Russian economy
Статья научная
Currently, in the new geopolitical context and amid external restrictions imposed by the West, the achievement of technological sovereignty is becoming the most important feature of a new emerging development model for Russia. In this regard, there is a need to find new and most effective ways and tools to address this problem. Our work considers the issue of implementing the project approach and the transition to a full innovation cycle economy through the formation of technological sovereignty projects that are pointed out as the main tool for ensuring technological independence as stated in the Concept for Technological Development of the Russian Federation up to 2030. Special attention is paid to the development of scientific and methodological approaches to the formation of such a tool in the context of analyzing the existing accumulated experience in the implementation of projects of a full innovation cycle, primarily comprehensive scientific and technological programs and projects implemented in the light of the objectives contained in the Strategy for Scientific and Technological Development of the Russian Federation adopted in 2016. We point out the importance of defining the boundaries of the full innovation cycle, which is interpreted by researchers in different ways. Since technological sovereignty projects are designed to turn into a tool for building their own reproduction chains, they should not end with the introduction of new technology; rather, they should enter mass production and contain a detailed investment component for the creation and reconstruction of production facilities. In this regard, we analyze the procedure for selecting priority areas for the development of technological sovereignty projects and their resource provision; we assess the effectiveness of state tools for supporting such projects; and propose measures to improve the organization of the process of formation and implementation of technological sovereignty projects. The implementation of the package of measures we put forward should help accelerate scientific and technological development and reduce Russia’s technological dependence.
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Статья научная
The article deals with technologies substituting hospitalization in the context of the overall structure of health care, discusses the prospects and problems of their introduction into medical practice of public health institutions of the Vologda region from the standpoint of economic efficiency.
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Telemedicine in modern conditions: the attitude of society and the vector of development
Статья научная
The intensive development of information technology and the external challenges, primarily the coronavirus pandemic, have caused a revision of attitudes toward telemedicine. The article is devoted to the study of problems concerning the development of Russian telemedicine, analysis of existing trends and the possibilities of its application, taking into account the development of communication technology and the legal field. Research on this issue is connected, on the one hand, with analyzing modern capabilities of telemedicine technologies and the need for their application in connection with the complex epidemiological situation in a number of Russia’s regions, on the other hand, with the assessment of the level of trust in telemedicine on the part of end users: who, how, when and where can use telemedicine services. The object of our research is telemedicine technology, the subject is the dynamics of perception of new forms of medical services by Russian society. We use a classical approach to studying the problems under consideration: at the first stage, we conduct a comprehensive desk study and analyze secondary information; at the second stage, we collect primary data: on the basis of the developed tools, we conduct an exploratory study of the attitude of Russian society toward telemedicine. The uniqueness and novelty of our findings are due to the comparison of the data concerning the attitude of Russians toward telemedicine, obtained before the outbreak of the pandemic, with the data obtained at the stage of a significant reduction in the incidence of COVID-19 in regions that have become “pilot” ones in the use of telemedicine technologies in primary care in the midst of the epidemic. During data collection and analysis, we applied statistical, mathematical and sociological methods, including content analysis to study legal issues of the possibility of using telemedicine technologies. The study has revealed the main reasons for Russians’ distrust of telemedicine, as well as possible ways and areas of its application in the future to provide medical care to the population. The results obtained can be used to study the application of telemedicine in Russia in the system of training and retraining of medical personnel, as well as by health care organizers, lawyers and other specialists who deal with the application of telemedicine technologies, including at the level of legislative and executive authorities.
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Статья научная
The research subject in the article is the correlation between evaluation indicators of primary energy resources in the fuel and energy sector in the Northwestern Federal District of the country. The purpose for the study is to evaluate the primary energy resources of the fuel and energy sector in the Northwestern Federal District in terms of economic, technological, energy, social, and environmental parameters with the use of balanced scorecard (BSC) for sustainable development of the sector in the Northwestern Federal District as a whole. Methods. The article proposes the methodology for territorial decomposition of the balanced scorecard for evaluating primary energy resources in the Northwestern Federal District. The region's balanced scorecard decomposition of evaluation of primary energy resources in the case of the Arkhangelsk Oblast fuel and energy sector, including Nenets Autonomous Okrug, is determined; the authors identify the degree of stability of the fuel land energy sector in the Arkhangelsk Oblast, according to the following parameters of sustainable development of the energy sector in the Northwestern Federal District: economic, technological, energy, social, environmental...
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Territorial differentiation and mechanism for its reduction
Статья научная
Interterritorial socio-economic differentiation is one of the main internal challenges that hamper sustainable development of Russian regions and impede the transition of the economy to a new techno-economic paradigm. The weakening of economic ties and the uneven distribution of resources have led to an increase not only in interregional, but also in intraregional inequality in the development of territories; this disrupts the cohesion of the common economic space. In this regard, it becomes necessary to substantiate scientifically the mechanism of territorial development regulation that can reduce the scale of intraregional differentiation and overcome its negative implications; this predetermined the goal of our study. We use the data on the Vologda Oblast to systematize and analyze factors that cause intraregional differentiation; we identify the most significant of them, assess the scale and depth of socio-economic differentiation, determine the trends of change in socio-economic development of municipal districts, and substantiate the use of methods that help decrease the inequality of territories...
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Territorial mobility of population in the context of search for happiness
Статья научная
The author of the article suggests considering the territorial mobility of population as the migration, aimed at finding happiness. Such factors as ‘health’, ‘employment security’, ‘standard of living’, ‘justice’ have been examined as the components of happiness. These factors affect the psychological state of people, their positive or negative feelings. Differentiation of the given factors was revealed to influence the territorial mobility of the population of the studied territories in case of the republics and oblasts of the Volga Federal District, with the two factors, i.e. ‘employment security’ and ‘standard of living’, being decisive in shaping the direction and intensity of migration flows of population in the pursuit of happiness.
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Territorial planning and Zipf's law
Статья научная
Territorial planning is an integral part of strategic planning in accordance with the current legislation of the Russian Federation. When development strategies are elaborated, the assessment of the socio-economic situation in the region should be based on the results obtained in the course of studying the current situation in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation in comparison with its border territorial entities, as well as in comparison with indicators in the macroregion (federal district). SWOT analysis is the most common technology for assessing the situation in a region. Due to various reasons the use of this method does not provide high accuracy of the result. The use of the Zipf distribution (inversely proportional dependence) as a reference provides an opportunity for a more accurate quantitative analysis of the dynamics of indicators used to assess the socio-economic situation in territorial entities. The goal of the paper is to determine current external conditions, trends and imbalances in the socio-economic situation in a region with the use of Zipf's law. In contrast to the traditional use of the law in the study of demographic indicators, our paper aims to consider the dynamics of changes in gross regional product and in the number of jobs. The results indicate that the distribution of the value added and the distribution of number of jobs tend to an inversely proportional function. The discussion of the results is presented in the form of a discussion on the impact of socio-economic situation on the formation of long-term development plans; the discussion takes into account the positions of constituent entities of the Russian Federation on the Zipf curve. In addition, we substantiate the possibility and necessity of using the gross regional product indicator in the conditions of the Russian Federation. Our conclusions show the advantage of using distributions to study the existing external environment in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation. Practical application of Zipf's law helps define the starting conditions and forecast the consequences of implementation of socio-economic development strategies more accurately and to substantiate quantitative indicators for long-term plans.
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Territorial public self-government as a development institution at the municipal level
Статья научная
Under the conditions of insufficient financial and economic independence of Russia’s municipalities, greater importance is attached to various forms of people’s self-organization created for the purpose of participating in municipal administration, in the implementation of projects and activities that ensure the achievement of strategic goals and objectives of territorial development with minimum cost. One such form is territorial public self-government (TPSG); but, despite its effectiveness, it is not widespread in Russian regions. This is due both to the passivity of the population and to the fact that the status of TPSG has not been established clearly in the system of local government. That is why it is very important to study the best practices of organization and functioning of TPSG and substantiate its role as a development institution at the municipal level. The present work uses the example of Vologda city and several RF subjects to show that TPSG can solve many local issues (in the sphere of social protection, improvement of territories, promotion of comfortable living, etc.)...
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Territories' predisposition assessment to “smart” companies' location
Статья научная
Currently, one of the urgent issues for the Russian economy is to create conditions for the expansion of “smart” companies in the regions on which depend the society transition to a new type of technological structure, innovative development and the country's competitiveness. The hypothesis of the study is that some regions are more predisposed to the appearance of “smart” companies on their territories, while others do not have the appropriate conditions for developing innovative and digital technologies. To prove this hypothesis, the article reveals the concept of a regional 3D model of a “smart” company and offers a methodology for assessing regions' predisposition to the emergence of such organizations. A special feature of the author's methodology is an integrated indicator which is the result of the synthesis of graphical and analytical evaluation methods. The methodology allows identifying territories with favorable conditions for expansion of organizational ambidextrity, innovative development and companies' digitalization. It was tested in Russia's regions in 2010-2017. As a result, the paper has identified the typology of regions according to five criteria reflecting the predisposition to the emergence of “smart” companies, and has built their rating. The approbation of the author's methodological developments allowed establishing that industrially developed regions can be considered digitalization poles. The work shows that the Ural Federal District acts as a stable basis for the emergence and successful functioning of “smart” companies, as all its entities, except the Kurgan Oblast, fall into the top twenty territories favorable for their development. This pattern is not typical for other federal districts. In conclusion, the authors have determined principal development trajectories of the main elements of the 3D model of a “smart” company at the meso-economic research level in the following areas: “smart” personnel, “smart” environment, “smart” innovations and solutions.
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The 2018-2019 regional election: voters’ trust in the authorities continues to decline
Статья научная
September 8 was a single voting day in Russia: 13 constituent entities of the Russian Federation elected deputies of state legislative bodies; 19 constituent entities elected their heads. This was one of the main events of 2019 for the domestic political life of Russia, because the results of the elections, in fact, reflect the socio-political agenda of today; they show people’s attitude toward the political and economic course implemented by the Russian government and serve as a criterion for assessing its effectiveness. The following materials provide an analysis of the electoral preferences of Russians, manifested in the level of support for the head of state and reflecting the interests of the ruling elites of the United Russia party; in the dynamics of voter turnout in Russia and in the number of votes cast for parliamentary parties representing the systemic opposition. To obtain an objective “picture” of today, we analyse the results of the previous elections (2017-2018), as well as the last three elections to the State Duma (2007, 2011, 2016) and the presidential elections in which Vladimir Putin took part (2000, 2004, 2012, 2018).
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The BRICS challenge for global economy institutions. The meaning of the new development bank
Статья научная
Global economy institutions are now acknowledged to be in crisis be they the IMF, the World Bank or the WTO. The increasing role of the BRICS as a group aiming for global governance rule setting marks a substantial shift in our understanding of that system. In the path toward this aim, BRICS countries clearly moved form an “Voice or Exit” posture to an of “Voice and Exit” and then to the open creation of an alternative to “Global West” generated economic institutions. By doing so they demonstrated the accumulation of structural power leading to the creation of the New Development Bank. In turn, this creation allowed the BRICS countries to strengthen their structural power. The diminishing share of the “global West” in the world GDP and the growth experienced by “emerging powers” like China and India has pushed toward obsolescence most of the global economy institutions that were generated in the past-Second World War and the Cold War. Global economy governance has fallen from “Global West” hands partly because of these objective changes and partly because of subjective factors like an ill-fated US policy, a generalization of the practice of unilateral - hence illegal - sanctions, and partly because a reluctance, and even an open opposition, to reform existing global economy institutions. Countries from the “Global South” are now looking to BRICS countries and their structural power with an increasing sympathy.
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Статья научная
National priorities in the development of Russian society in the field of demography are related to population reproduction, health preservation, decrease in working-age mortality, increase in life expectancy, etc., and also correlate strategically with the effective functioning of business. This brings to the fore the need to develop, implement and elaborate on corporate social policy in general and corporate demographic policy in particular. The aim of the study is to analyze social policy pursued by major Russian corporations (PAO Severstal, Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works PJSC, Gazprom Neft PJSC, PJSC Lukoil, JSC Russian Railways, PJSC PhosAgro, PJSC Acron) and substantiate the concept for corporate demographic policy of enterprises. We consider prerequisites for the establishment and implementation of corporate demographic policy in Russian society. We have found that at the present stage of its development, corporate social responsibility is most often reduced to cash payments and participation of enterprises in individual social projects. The article analyzes social policy practices that Russian companies are implementing and that are directly related to demographic issues (childcare allowances, employee benefits, health resort treatment, etc.). We look into the approaches to understanding corporate demographic policy and its effectiveness; we show the benefits of implementing corporate demographic policy at Russian enterprises. Such benefits include promotion of business reputation, reduction in social tension, participation of enterprises in addressing demographic development issues, etc. According to some studies, the introduction of corporate health promotion programs can reduce disability losses from a number of causes by almost 30%. The practical significance and scientific novelty of our research consists in the development of a concept for corporate demographic policy of Russian enterprises, definition of its targets, implementation mechanisms and substantiation of the expected results, which consist in enhancing the effectiveness of state demographic policy as a whole and improving the results of implementation of corporate programs.
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The EU's seventh framework programme: opportunities for Russian academic institutions
Статья научная
The article deals with the issues concerning the expansion of international cooperation in the sphere of innovation activity. The authors consider one of the main tools of its development - the EU’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7). The article presents the analysis of statistical information reflecting the degree of involvement of Russian organizations in the work on the projects in the subject area “Socio- Economic Sciences and Humanities” under FP7. The authors present the experience of participation of the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of RAS in the competitions under this program, including the project “Social Innovation: Driving Force of Social Change”. The article reveals the essence of social innovations, highlights their features, and gives their classification.
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The Epochs of Passionaries and Conservatives and the Image of the Future in Historical Processes
Статья научная
The article considers the problem of structuring history “in time and space”, i.e. constructing its schematic picture (or model) in the form of a small number of large communities, differing in types of culture and patterns of development (structuring “in space”), the development of which takes place over long periods that differ in their semantic content (structuring in time). For a long time, the functions of such a model were performed by categories of socio-economic formations and civilizations. In recent decades, the categories of formations have become less and less suitable for reflecting rapidly transforming historical processes, as shown in the paper. To address the task of structuring, we suggest using the socio-psychological type of passionaries introduced into historical science by Lev Gumilev; we also propose to introduce an alternative type of conservatives. L. Gumilev and other researchers used the psychological type of passionaries as a factor in the processes of ethnogenesis. The paper demonstrates the possibility of effectively applying the categories of passionaries and conservatives as drivers of political, ideological, economic and other changes in the social structure and for structuring much shorter periods of society’s development. The article examines the socio-psychological phenomenon of society’s attitude toward the past and the future - its role in the revival of social life and in the formation of differences in the moral and ideological foundations of Western and Russian civilizations in different historical periods. Its connection with the epochs of domination of passionaries and conservatives is shown
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The European economic slump: Between global reasons and country-specific causes
Статья научная
The European economy (in the sense of EU-27 and Euro-20) is currently experiencing a period of economic difficulties that are reflected in lower growth than that of the United States and Asian countries. It seems to be losing its relevance on the scale of the global economy. This is the immediate result of the sharp rise in energy prices induced by the sanctions taken against Russia, but also of structural factors in the EU (energy market) and the existence of the euro. To some extent, the process of economic integration pursued in the EU has contributed to spread and diffuse the energy crisis among EU members. This is in part explaining the current situation that worsen the new US policy about trade and tariffs. However, these general problems are added to crisis factors that are specific to each of the member countries, as shown by the study of the three main economies of the EU, France, Germany and Italy. These three economies are still weighting more than 50% of the EU GDP. They are facing specific crisis factors going from a strong deindustrialization, a loss in labor productivity and a strongly degraded fiscal situation for France to the combination of a weak internal demand and a long-standing crisis in Italy and to a crisis of the very model of the German economy caught between the energy crisis that hit harder a more industrialized base and a general dereliction of public infrastructures. But for Germany, the common currency – the euro – seems to have played a much negative role, particularly for France and Italy. The combination of these specific problems and general problems is proving difficult to resolve, the more so when the EU is facing President Trump’s new trade policy. One can wonder if the economic and monetary integration has not been pushed too far without a balancing global fiscal integration.
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Статья научная
The French economy, while still recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, is currently dealing with special problems that have emerged due to the new geopolitical situation. Signs of weakness in the French economy at the beginning of the year may turn into an actual recession in 2023. The latest forecasts are particularly pessimistic in this regard. Since Russia has terminated its oil and gas deliveries after the sanctions imposed by the European Union, the French economy is at risk of serious inflation issues. Delivery interruptions can have significant negative consequences for France primarily due to their indirect impact resulting from the influence on its neighbor, Germany. The inflation that has hit the French economy and other economies of the European Unions is a kind of inflation caused by deficit rather than excessive demand. The French government, which spent considerable amount of money to protect people and businesses during the COVID-19 crisis, is faced with the need to provide significant assistance again. Both fiscal and monetary policy will be disrupted. A sharp increase in public debt is also expected. France has encountered an unprecedented economic situation, when the rules of a market economy seem powerless in the face of incoming problems. Economic planning, similar to the one that was used from 1946 to the end of the 1960s, probably represents the best opportunity for the French economy to adapt to the consequences of the new geopolitical situation.
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Статья научная
February 24, 2022, after the recognition of the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic (February 22, 2022), Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. The head of state noted in his address to Russians that the purpose of the operation was “to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation”. The RF President’s decision announced the beginning of a new stage in Russia’s development in the 21st century and launched large-scale and irreversible changes concerning not only our country, but also the whole world. The global historical confrontation between Russia and the US-led NATO countries (between Russia and the Collective West) has entered an active phase, accompanied by a sharp aggravation of international political relations, sanctions policy, and armed clashes. We (relying, as usual, on expert opinions, official statistics and sociological surveys) express our own point of view on the events taking place in the world and in Russia, analyze their nature, causes, and implications.
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Статья научная
March 15-17, 2024, the presidential election will be held in Russia. The election will take place in a very specific context due to the ongoing special military operation, aggravating threats to national security posed by NATO countries, and a range of internal changes that Russia has been going through since the beginning of the special military operation. Against the background of the alarming situation around Russia, the RF President delivered his annual Address to the RF Federal Assembly on February 29, 2024; he presented a program of actions and specific public policy measures for the next six years (until 2030). The Address had certain aspects reminding of an election speech and was intended not only for government bodies at all levels of public authority, but also the broad strata of Russian society. In fact, the head of state outlined the contours of Russia’s future for the next political cycle, and this is important amid uncertainty and a high level of risks that the country is facing at the present historical moment (after the start of the SMO). The article presents our own approach to analyzing the current situation in the country (including the 2024 presidential election), based on our long-term monitoring of public administration effectiveness, the system-wide nature of which is determined by the comprehensiveness of the empirical base (analysis of national and regional statistics, including those of own compilation; sociological surveys, analysis of expert assessments and key decisions taken by the President and the RF Federal Assembly). Scientific novelty of the study lies in a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of public administration during Vladimir Putin’s first four presidential terms (2000-2024), that is, during the first quarter of the 21st century. In this context, we analyze general goals, objectives, and principles of public administration formulated by Vladimir Putin as he assumed office as president for the first time; key initiatives and decisions he adopted in order to address the tasks set; internal and external conditions in which the head of state had to achieve national development goals; key stages that the country went through over the past 23 years; and the main results with which it “approached” the beginning of a new political cycle.
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The Vologda region's economy in the period of Great Patriotic War
Статья научная
The article covers the organization of the regional industrial and agricultural functioning, shows the labor feat of Vologda’s inhabitant in wartime.
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