Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1728
The EU's seventh framework programme: opportunities for Russian academic institutions
Статья научная
The article deals with the issues concerning the expansion of international cooperation in the sphere of innovation activity. The authors consider one of the main tools of its development - the EU’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7). The article presents the analysis of statistical information reflecting the degree of involvement of Russian organizations in the work on the projects in the subject area “Socio- Economic Sciences and Humanities” under FP7. The authors present the experience of participation of the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of RAS in the competitions under this program, including the project “Social Innovation: Driving Force of Social Change”. The article reveals the essence of social innovations, highlights their features, and gives their classification.
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The Epochs of Passionaries and Conservatives and the Image of the Future in Historical Processes
Статья научная
The article considers the problem of structuring history “in time and space”, i.e. constructing its schematic picture (or model) in the form of a small number of large communities, differing in types of culture and patterns of development (structuring “in space”), the development of which takes place over long periods that differ in their semantic content (structuring in time). For a long time, the functions of such a model were performed by categories of socio-economic formations and civilizations. In recent decades, the categories of formations have become less and less suitable for reflecting rapidly transforming historical processes, as shown in the paper. To address the task of structuring, we suggest using the socio-psychological type of passionaries introduced into historical science by Lev Gumilev; we also propose to introduce an alternative type of conservatives. L. Gumilev and other researchers used the psychological type of passionaries as a factor in the processes of ethnogenesis. The paper demonstrates the possibility of effectively applying the categories of passionaries and conservatives as drivers of political, ideological, economic and other changes in the social structure and for structuring much shorter periods of society’s development. The article examines the socio-psychological phenomenon of society’s attitude toward the past and the future - its role in the revival of social life and in the formation of differences in the moral and ideological foundations of Western and Russian civilizations in different historical periods. Its connection with the epochs of domination of passionaries and conservatives is shown
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The European economic slump: Between global reasons and country-specific causes
Статья научная
The European economy (in the sense of EU-27 and Euro-20) is currently experiencing a period of economic difficulties that are reflected in lower growth than that of the United States and Asian countries. It seems to be losing its relevance on the scale of the global economy. This is the immediate result of the sharp rise in energy prices induced by the sanctions taken against Russia, but also of structural factors in the EU (energy market) and the existence of the euro. To some extent, the process of economic integration pursued in the EU has contributed to spread and diffuse the energy crisis among EU members. This is in part explaining the current situation that worsen the new US policy about trade and tariffs. However, these general problems are added to crisis factors that are specific to each of the member countries, as shown by the study of the three main economies of the EU, France, Germany and Italy. These three economies are still weighting more than 50% of the EU GDP. They are facing specific crisis factors going from a strong deindustrialization, a loss in labor productivity and a strongly degraded fiscal situation for France to the combination of a weak internal demand and a long-standing crisis in Italy and to a crisis of the very model of the German economy caught between the energy crisis that hit harder a more industrialized base and a general dereliction of public infrastructures. But for Germany, the common currency – the euro – seems to have played a much negative role, particularly for France and Italy. The combination of these specific problems and general problems is proving difficult to resolve, the more so when the EU is facing President Trump’s new trade policy. One can wonder if the economic and monetary integration has not been pushed too far without a balancing global fiscal integration.
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Статья научная
The French economy, while still recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, is currently dealing with special problems that have emerged due to the new geopolitical situation. Signs of weakness in the French economy at the beginning of the year may turn into an actual recession in 2023. The latest forecasts are particularly pessimistic in this regard. Since Russia has terminated its oil and gas deliveries after the sanctions imposed by the European Union, the French economy is at risk of serious inflation issues. Delivery interruptions can have significant negative consequences for France primarily due to their indirect impact resulting from the influence on its neighbor, Germany. The inflation that has hit the French economy and other economies of the European Unions is a kind of inflation caused by deficit rather than excessive demand. The French government, which spent considerable amount of money to protect people and businesses during the COVID-19 crisis, is faced with the need to provide significant assistance again. Both fiscal and monetary policy will be disrupted. A sharp increase in public debt is also expected. France has encountered an unprecedented economic situation, when the rules of a market economy seem powerless in the face of incoming problems. Economic planning, similar to the one that was used from 1946 to the end of the 1960s, probably represents the best opportunity for the French economy to adapt to the consequences of the new geopolitical situation.
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Статья научная
February 24, 2022, after the recognition of the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic (February 22, 2022), Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. The head of state noted in his address to Russians that the purpose of the operation was “to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation”. The RF President’s decision announced the beginning of a new stage in Russia’s development in the 21st century and launched large-scale and irreversible changes concerning not only our country, but also the whole world. The global historical confrontation between Russia and the US-led NATO countries (between Russia and the Collective West) has entered an active phase, accompanied by a sharp aggravation of international political relations, sanctions policy, and armed clashes. We (relying, as usual, on expert opinions, official statistics and sociological surveys) express our own point of view on the events taking place in the world and in Russia, analyze their nature, causes, and implications.
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Статья научная
March 15-17, 2024, the presidential election will be held in Russia. The election will take place in a very specific context due to the ongoing special military operation, aggravating threats to national security posed by NATO countries, and a range of internal changes that Russia has been going through since the beginning of the special military operation. Against the background of the alarming situation around Russia, the RF President delivered his annual Address to the RF Federal Assembly on February 29, 2024; he presented a program of actions and specific public policy measures for the next six years (until 2030). The Address had certain aspects reminding of an election speech and was intended not only for government bodies at all levels of public authority, but also the broad strata of Russian society. In fact, the head of state outlined the contours of Russia’s future for the next political cycle, and this is important amid uncertainty and a high level of risks that the country is facing at the present historical moment (after the start of the SMO). The article presents our own approach to analyzing the current situation in the country (including the 2024 presidential election), based on our long-term monitoring of public administration effectiveness, the system-wide nature of which is determined by the comprehensiveness of the empirical base (analysis of national and regional statistics, including those of own compilation; sociological surveys, analysis of expert assessments and key decisions taken by the President and the RF Federal Assembly). Scientific novelty of the study lies in a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of public administration during Vladimir Putin’s first four presidential terms (2000-2024), that is, during the first quarter of the 21st century. In this context, we analyze general goals, objectives, and principles of public administration formulated by Vladimir Putin as he assumed office as president for the first time; key initiatives and decisions he adopted in order to address the tasks set; internal and external conditions in which the head of state had to achieve national development goals; key stages that the country went through over the past 23 years; and the main results with which it “approached” the beginning of a new political cycle.
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The Vologda region's economy in the period of Great Patriotic War
Статья научная
The article covers the organization of the regional industrial and agricultural functioning, shows the labor feat of Vologda’s inhabitant in wartime.
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The Vologda region: anti-crisis action program
Другой
We offer the Vice-Governor of Vologda Region Nikolai Kostygov's interview, in which he expresses his point of view on the anti-crisis measures taken by the local authorities.
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The Vologda region: prospects of territory's demographic development
Статья научная
The article considers the demographic situation in the Vologda region. Based on the results of variable demographic prognosis an analysis of its development prospects is made.
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The age factor in the digital divide: the edges of inequality
Статья научная
At the end of the 1990s - beginning of the 2000s, due to the spread of the Internet at an increasing rate in certain countries, while others were lagging behind, it became necessary to study the digital gap issues. At the present stage, when the existence of the digital divide in the world and individual states is obvious and proven, researchers have focused on studying its factors. The article aims to assess the influence of the age factor on the scale and prevalence of the digital divide within a three-level model. To do this, we consider theoretical and methodological approaches to studying the age factor of the digital divide; we analyze trends in the use of information and communication technologies by representatives of various age groups, and the inclusion of children, adolescents and the elderly in the digital environment. The model of three levels of the digital divide developed by modern scientists is used as a theoretical basis. According to the model, inequality manifests itself in access to technical means, differences in the digital literacy, and the benefits derived from digitalization. In the course of the work, we use a set of general scientific methods. We reveal significant differences in the practices of using personal computers and the Internet among representatives of different age groups and calculate the time periods necessary to reduce intergenerational gaps in Russia and the Vologda Oblast. We assess the impact of online habits on a person’s life, the purposes of using the Internet and the possibility of receiving bonuses from it, the availability of digital skills for various age groups of Vologda Oblast population. The scientific novelty of the study consists in assessing the influence of the age factor on the prevalence of digital gap parameters at the regional level. The results can be used for identifying the groups that are at risk of being excluded from the processes of digital development. The findings will be also useful in formulating the relevance of social retraining programs for the able-bodied population in accordance with the requirements of new jobs, in teaching older people digital skills, and in making managerial decisions for successful digital development.
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The agricultural sector of the Pechora-Ural North
Статья научная
The article reveals the rural sector’s role in food supply of the population of the Komi Republic arctic and subarctic territories (the Pechora-Ural North). It considers conditions, analyses resources, organizational-legal management forms in agricultural production. The study indicates the agriculture status in the pre-reform (1960-1980) and market upgrade periods (since 1992) and the reforms’ impact on socio-economic processes in the industry. The article investigates obstacles to the agricultural sector development. It proposes development directions of reindeer and cattle breeding. It recommends to accelerate the development and adoption of the law “On reindeer breeding in the Russian Federation”, a federal target program for the reindeer breeding development, and it also proposes to enhance inter-regional relations in the field of joint systems of pastures control. The research highlights the necessity to strengthen the material and technological base of the dual purpose cattle breeding, to increase financial support of traditional Northern branches.
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The anti-crisis component of regional management: composition and instruments
Статья научная
The article characterizes the composition of anti-crisis measures implemented by authorities of the Vologda region, and also usable instruments of their implementation. The main results of changes in the socio-economic situation of the region in 2009 are shown, lines of activity providing sustainable development of the region are formed.
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The assessment of the impact of the economy's development on air pollution
Статья научная
The economic growth has a negative impact on the environment, that is why the development of models, which would reveal the influence of different factors on the change of the environment, is necessary. In order to study environmental and economic processes, a new approach was proposed, and special models, which allow assessing the impact of the investment policy and environmental activities, were created. It gives an opportunity to link the change of the environment with approved management decisions. The purpose of the article is to identify reasons that cause transformations of the interconnection between economic and environmental indicators, to study the impact of the change of environmental legislation and other external shocks on environmental and economic processes in the Russian Federation and the European Union on the example of air environment. The relevance and significance of this work is determined by changes of environmental legislation in the Russian Federation, which is currently based on the best available technologies (BAT), and the need to build models that would allow predicting the development of environmental and economic processes in changing interconnections of indicators within the emerging practice of applying new legislation. The novelty of the research is the development of models, which allow analyzing the impact of external shocks on environmental and economic processes, on the basis of the proposed approach. Empirical analysis of data was carried out, and models of environmental and economic processes were constructed. It turned out that the change of EU legislation did not lead to a sharp transformation of existing interconnections between economic and environmental indicators, which were associated with economic crises. Crises may contribute to the emergence of a new trend or just bring the system out of balance for a few years, but later its development will again be described by equations similar to pre-crisis ones. The study also allowed us to explain the improvement of environmental indicators with the growth of Russian and EU economies. Its results may be used in the development of strategic documents for the development of regions and countries. Further studies are related to the assessment of various scenarios for the development of regions of the European North of the Russian Federation.
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Статья научная
In the article the comparative analysis of the basic parameters of the scientific and technical activity in the regions of the North-West federal district of the Russian Federation and in the Republic of Belarus is carried out.
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The belt and road: achievements and prospects (to the tenth anniversary of the initiative)
Статья научная
September 7, 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the Silk Road Economic Belt initiative in Astana (Kazakhstan), and October 3, 2013 the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road in Indonesia. The year 2023 marks the 10th anniversary of The Belt and Road Initiative, which has received positive feedback from many countries and international organizations. The Belt and Road strategy corresponds to the course of historical development and meets the expectations of all parties. The international community pays considerable attention to it. As of January 2023, China has signed more than 200 documents on cooperation with 151 countries and 32 international organizations. In ten years, The Belt and Road Initiative achieved fruitful results and brought tangible benefits to the population of the countries located along the route. Currently, cooperation within the framework of The Belt and Road project is facing the turbulence of the external environment, but its possibilities have not been exhausted. For citation: Lyu Hongying, Wang Chao (2023). The Belt and Road: Achievements and prospects (to the tenth anniversary of the Initiative). Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 16(5), 279-293. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2023.5.89.16 In the future, it will contribute to the development of international cooperation in more areas and at a deeper level, achieving mutual benefit. The article summarizes the achievements and experience of the construction of The Belt and Road for ten years, analyzes the problems and difficulties that have arisen, and also considers new opportunities and challenges in promoting high-quality development within the framework of The Belt and Road Initiative.
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Статья научная
The article shows that the essential tools for managing the public and municipal finances are emerged from the organization of the budget process because this process permeates all areas of fiscal activity of public and municipal authorities. The author emphasizes that the changes in the economic, social and financial policy of the state at a particular stage of development of the country influence over the budget process. The author has focused attention on determining the place and the role of local budgets in the general system of the country's budget process. He considers some new methods in budget planning and forecasting.
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Статья научная
The possibility of application of a new Western paradigm as to the specially protected natural territories in the Extreme North of Russia is discussed in the article. It implies the combination of nature protection and neighborhood development. The author writes in brief about the new paradigm and the system of specially protected natural territories in the Murmansk Oblast. There are such problems of specially protected natural territories in the region as conflict of interest between different stakeholders, lack of support from the authorities and weak tourism infrastructure and competence in this sphere. However, the enthusiasm on the subject of local national parks and nature parks and a growing number of tourists allow us to suppose that the role of specially protected natural territories in the neighborhood development will be more significant in future.
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The competitive status of the mining company: mechanisms of formation and management
Статья научная
The essence of the competitive status of the company is considered, the specificity of influence of the basic external and internal economy factors on formation of the competitive status of the mining company is established, the factors of institutional regulation, investment attractiveness of the industry, the structure of the industry and the markets, the degrees of integration and diversification, the type and efficiency of the company's strategy are studied. The methodical approach to formation, estimation and management of the competitive status of the mining companies is offered.
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The concept of comprehensive income in the economic theory of the state
Статья научная
The article presents a concept of the comprehensive income of producers of patronized goods; the concept helped to determine the economic content of the term “budget subsidy”, which in the Russian tradition is unreasonably interpreted as gratuitous aid from a paternalistic state. We substantiate this concept and the economic meaning of budget subsidy on the basis of a modified model of the Wicksell- Lindahl equilibrium as applied to patronized goods, the distinctive feature of which consists in their ability to satisfy the interests of individuals and the government that acts on behalf of society. We prove that such a modification of the equilibrium model is based on the use of the marginal utility theory in relation to the key term in the theory of patronized goods: public interest that is not reduced to individual preferences. Such an interpretation required that the absolutization of the marginalist principle of subjectivism based on “methodological individualism” should be abandoned. The presence of a public interest that is not reduced to individual preferences, and therefore the presence of the social utility function of the paternalistic state, fundamentally changes the content of the equilibrium. This approach resulted in the development of the concept of comprehensive income, which is defined as the sum of income from market sales and budget subsidies, deflated by different price indices. In order to summarize components of comprehensive income, we present our own methodology for constructing a “composite price index”. The normative model for budget subsidy based on the assessment of the social utility of patronized goods is the most important practical result of our work. With regard to its normative nature, the article presents a theoretical substantiation of the three normative conditions and derives the corresponding equations for model calculations of the budget subsidy value, tested on the example of national and municipal theaters using actual departmental statistics for the period from 2009 to 2019.
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Статья научная
In the article, we continue to reveal the topic related to the problem of liberal ideology, which was actually established in Russia after the adoption of the Constitution of the Russian Federation in 1993, which proclaimed a ban on official state ideology (Article 13). The emphasis is placed on the empirical results of monitoring sociological research, which allow us to see the dynamics of changes in indicators of the intellectual, creative and moral level of Russian society for the period from 1996 to 2024. The study was carried out in the Vologda Region, but a comparison of the data obtained with the results of opinion polls conducted in other regions of the Russian Federation suggests the existence of identified trends in many regions of the country. The analysis has shown that, on average, over the period from 1996 to 2024, the proportion of people interested in various topics about life, such as family, culture, upbringing of younger generations, the life of the country and society, etc. decreased by 11 percentage points. The proportion of people who do not tend to engage in creative activities in everyday life has increased by 15 percentage points. The proportion of people experiencing remorse in the case of committing certain immoral acts (deception, rudeness, injustice, etc.) decreased by 8 percentage points. The generalization of expert assessments given in the article indicates that the cause of negative trends is largely the ideology of liberalism, which is based on the ideas of consumerism and money as the leading values in life, the understanding of benefit as the only driving force of social development. Special emphasis is placed on the values and behaviors of the ruling elites, who continue to adhere to the basic tenets of liberal ideology, which, in the context of the special military operation, leads to extremely negative consequences for the country and creates real threats to national security. Some of the ruling elites are still guided by liberal attitudes that contradict traditional spiritual and moral values such as justice, patriotism, and the priority of the spiritual over the material, which are contained in Presidential Decree 809 of November 9, 2022. Therefore, there is a growing need in the expert community and among the general public for a real understanding of the answer to the question “What kind of state are we building?” Our contribution lies in the analysis and interpretation of the database of sociological data accumulated from 1996 to 2024 in the context of current problems of public administration effectiveness.
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