Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1763
Статья научная
Breaking out of a demographic trap is a priority of national policy in Russia. To achieve this goal, the national project “Demography” was adopted. The purpose of our study is to review current trends in European family policy in the case of Germany and to identify opportunities for applying foreign experience in improving the provision of institutional support to family policy in the Russian Federation. In our work, we use methods of institutional and statistical analysis. Unlike the studies of other authors, our own assessment of the effectiveness and sufficiency of expensive measures being developed in Russia is based on an institutional analysis that we conduct so as to reveal trends in European family policy on the example of Germany, which is characterized by an institutional logic of family policy similar to Russia. Family policy in Germany is based on increasing public spending on the creation of a developed system of social infrastructure. Both countries focus on increasing the birth rate and the development of social infrastructure that allows women not to abandon their career; but it is assumed that for Russia, the relevant implications will be more significant. As a result of accelerated construction of kindergartens in major agglomerations of Germany, an increase in the birth rate is demonstrated. However, this effect is mostly caused by the migration wave of 2015, while immigrants are insensitive to the measures being implemented. In addition, this leads to an outflow of population from other regions. The significance of the article lies in the fact that the consideration of the contradictions between various courses of family policy in Germany over the past 20 years has revealed the possibilities of using foreign experience in improving the institutional support of family policy in Russia. Based on the analysis we carried out, and taking into consideration the experience of Germany, we propose recommendations in the field of socioeconomic policy that can specify the parameters of the national project “Demography” in terms of taking into account regional demographic situation.
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The issues of asymmetry of corporate and public interests in the food market
Статья научная
The article analyzes the present-day condition of Russia’s food market from the viewpoint of coordination of interests of population and corporate interests of producers. The author points out that the provisions of the existing legal documents regulating the quality and safety of foodstuffs facilitate the growth of asymmetry in these interests. The article considers the manifestation of imbalance and the consequences of consumption of foodstuffs, produced with the use of new technology and receipts. It proposes the ways to smooth the asymmetry of interests by enhancing the role of experts in drafting the state decisions on the development the national food market from the standpoint of complying with the principles of food products safety.
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The issues of tax burden distribution in Russia's economy
Статья научная
Tax burden has a direct influence on socio-economic processes and is one of the main criteria for evaluating the current tax system. But there still exist certain simplified views on the level of tax burden, which is identified with the actual transfer of payments to the budget. The article highlights the results of a research into the tax burden of Russia’s economy. The main goal was to identify the trends in the distribution of tax burden and its actual level. The main conclusion of the study consists in the following: the ongoing tax reforms have not led to the establishment of an efficient fiscal mechanism, which will facilitate the implementation of taxation equality principle and take into consideration the opportunities of tax-payers to pay compulsory payments and develop the production. Meanwhile, there is the potential for tax maneuver with regard to a number of industries.
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The link between unemployment and industrial production: the Fourier approach with structural breaks
Статья научная
The purpose of this study was to investigate the long-term relationship between unemployment and industrial production during structural breaks in the United States. We used monthly data from the Industrial Production Index and the unemployment rate between January 1948 and October 2018 to analyze this relationship. We found the stationarity of the time series used using the Fourier KPSS stationarity test, which enabled a stationarity analysis, including with the existence of structural breaks. As a result of the stationarity analysis, we did not find any stationarity in either series. We then used a Fourier Shin cointegration analysis to investigate the long-term relationship between the industrial production index and the unemployment rate. This test demonstrates its difference from other cointegration tests considering the time and shape of these breaks in the presence of structural breaks. According to the cointegration analysis results, we found a long-term relationship between the U.S. unemployment rate and the industrial production index variables. These results indicate that sudden structural changes in the industrial production index have an effect on the U.S. unemployment rate in the long term. We then used the Least Squares with Breaks Bai-Perron break type method to determine the structural break periods and the coefficients of these periods. We found the years 1958, 1974, 1990, and 2007 to be when the structural changes occurred.
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The logic of development of civil society studies at VolRC RAS
Статья научная
The article presents the formation and development of a research field dedicated to the study of civil society at Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences (VolRC RAS; previously known as VSCC CEMI RAS, ISEDT RAS). The Center's research tradition, originating in 1993 with the launch of a public opinion monitoring, has allowed for the creation of a unique long-term empirical database. Building upon this foundation in the 2010s, under the leadership of Doctor of Sciences (Economics), RAS Corresponding Member, Professor V.A. Ilyin, a systematic study of civil society from a regional perspective was initiated. The formation of this research field is revealed through three key research vectors. First, the analysis of civil society through the lens of social capital. The research team developed and tested an original indicator model for its quantitative measurement, enabling the study of the dynamics, structure, and characteristics of the bearers of this resource. The social capital of a regional community is considered a condition for civil society development. Second, monitoring and assessment of one of the key institutions of civil society – the non-profit sector – is conducted, and its role in the socio-economic development of the region is investigated. Methodologies for assessing its contribution to the gross regional product and balanced regional development have been developed; models of economic behavior of organizations and key barriers to their functioning have been identified. Third, the phenomenon of civic participation is conceptualized, external and internal barriers to its realization are identified, and mechanisms for overcoming them are proposed, including in the context of digitalization. Overall, the research approach of VolRC RAS staff to the study of civil society can be characterized as an applied, empirically rich, and regionally-oriented school. The principal value of the team's scholarly work lies in translating abstract philosophical and political science concepts into the language of concrete social indicators and practices applicable to Russian realities, especially at the regional level. The accumulated body of data and the developed methodological tools for assessing elements of civil society create a basis for evidence-based analysis and the formulation of practical recommendations for public authorities.
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The logic of withstanding between civilizational poles
Статья научная
The article proposes a conceptual scheme of historical development as a sequence of breaking points that are associated with the change of sense, ideological structure and determine the dominant attitudes of the subjects of historical activity. The time intervals between successive breaking points are epochs of relative stability of the system of ideological attitudes. The modern epoch began with a historical breaking point that came at the end of the 19th - early 20th century, replacing the epoch of classical capitalism of the 15 th - 19th century. The dominant sense structure of the modern epoch is determined by the civilizational confrontation between Western countries and a group of leading non-Western countries. In the 20th century, the main ideological contradiction of this multidimensional confrontation was the struggle of socialism and capitalism. However, at the beginning of the 21st century, the confrontation between Western and non-Western countries transformed into a struggle between supporters of a unipolar world and supporters of a multipolar world. From time to time, the civilizational confrontation experiences periods of extreme aggravation (for example, the First and Second world wars), which is then followed by “detente”. The most important factor in historical dynamics is the processes that occur in the Western power elite and that are associated with the need to maintain the dominant ideology of superiority in this part of the world. The article describes the features of economic and political processes that can lead to the emergence and acceleration of exacerbations in international relations. They include the tendency of the West losing its leadership and an uncompromising struggle with contenders for new leadership; large-scale and, in many ways, successful attempts to manipulate public consciousness through the media and the education system; emergence of powers behind the throne in Western countries; revival of neo-Nazi organizations.
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The methodical basis of estimation of flax cluster elements’ competitiveness
Статья научная
The article examines the problems of formation and development of flax cluster in Vologda region by inter-branch and inter-territorial cooperating. The effectiveness of this cluster is primarily determined by the level of competitiveness of its products, it depends on the rate of development of advanced technologies of agricultural production, industrial primary processing of raw flax and textile industry. Basing on the data available in the system of state statistics and manufacturing accounting, the author suggests the technique to reveal the competitiveness of major products made of flax and the competitiveness of flax cluster as a whole. The algorithm of this technique for vertically-oriented formations in regional flax complex has been worked out.
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The nature of large-scale financial and economic crises and latent world management
Статья научная
The material presents in abbreviated form the contents of the report, made on the basis of collective research at the Center for Problem Analysis and Public Management Projecting and submitted at the standing Research Seminar in the Center (head - Doctor of Physics and Mathematics, General Director of the Center S.S. Sulakshin)
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The need for workforce in constituent entities of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation
Статья научная
In the first quarter of the 21st century, the Arctic and everything connected with it remains a popular topic in the humanitarian, socio-economic and political spheres. It is especially relevant for Russia, which has the largest polar sector in the world. An integrated approach to the study and analysis of development prospects of the Arctic territories can create conditions for sustainable socio-economic development not only in the Arctic zone of Russia, but also in Russia as a whole. One of the elements of this approach is the need for skilled workforce at the enterprises of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation; this topic is considered in the paper. The relevance of the topic stems from the need to implement large-scale investment projects for development of mineral resources and transport infrastructure (megaprojects), the need to address long-term tasks of socio-economic development of the Russian Arctic and ensure national security in the region. All these points are contained in the strategy for development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation until 2020...
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The north and the arctic in the new paradigm of global development: current problems
Статья
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The north of Russia: distribution of productive forces and space development
Статья научная
Following the theoretical standpoints by the academician A.G. Granberg, the author considers the main problem of space development in association with the distribution of productive forces. Each of three positions of the North area (circumpolar, latitudinal and meridian) brings up to date some certain aspects of regional politics, notably its arctic vector, regulation of norms and standards of social and production activity, strengthening of integration in the line of “North - South” in order to form a full-blooded Russian market.
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Статья научная
According to some researchers, in recent years there has been an upward trend in predominant stagnating regions in Russia. The reasons for this include low innovation activity of the periphery, deindustrialization, predominant extractive industries, capital exports, growing social and property stratification and other equally important reasons. The current economic and political crisis in our country is both a threat, an opportunity and an impetus to restructuring the regional economy. In these conditions it becomes extremely necessary to search for new growth points in the regional economy, support for the most promising industries, and efficient resource allocation. Inter-regional cooperation is the most important area of the regional policy, ensuring progressive balanced socio-economic development of regions based on establishing long-term, equal and mutually beneficial relations between them. The importance of inter-regional cooperation for the development of modern Russia's constituent entities is determined by the fact that it strengthens economic ties between them, optimizes the location of infrastructure facilities based on cooperation of their activities, eliminates inefficient financial costs associated with the creation of duplicate economic structures in Russia's constituent entities and unjustified inter-regional competition, combines the regions' economic potential for implementing the most large-scale investment projects, spreads innovative experience in innovation development...
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The overdue transformation of the budget policy model in the context of growing economic dynamics
Статья научная
The changes taking place in the Russian economy under the influence of structural shifts and institutional transformations caused by external shocks determine the need to find a balance between budget planning and economic forecasting, taking into account the revealed differences in scenario approaches, deviations in the execution of the federal budget relative to planned assignments, weak connection between budget expenditures and subsequent socio-economic dynamics. It is proved that strong economic growth is associated with the liberation of the Russian economy from the dominance of foreign business in domestic markets. The problem is the discrepancy between conservative fiscal policy and the challenges of economic development, including the development of scenario conditions for a medium-term forecast for it. The unpreparedness of the public sector for high economic growth can become a brake on economic growth and institutional transformations. The directions of expanding the fiscal space in connection with the processes of adaptation of the Russian economy to external shocks are highlighted. These include differences between scenario conditions; between the GDP parameters adopted in the draft federal budget for the first fiscal year and the reporting values of this indicator at the end of the year, faster GDP growth compared with official forecasts; structural, transformational and institutional changes taking place in the Russian economy. To improve the quality of scenario forecasting underlying the development of the federal budget, it is necessary to include ambitious “target” and “crisis” scenarios in the scenario conditions developed by the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation along with conservative and basic ones. The clarification of the scenario conditions should be based on an assessment of the economic consequences of the implementation of budgetary policy measures. The composition of indicators of scenario conditions requires expansion. In addition to the current adjustments to the budget process, deeper reforms should begin to be worked out, corresponding to high economic growth and serious structural shifts in the economy.
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The paradigm of transformative investment in the context of socially oriented theories
Статья научная
The article is devoted to the study of transformative investments in the context of socially oriented theories. The growing inequality of the regions, the lack of equal opportunities in obtaining basic vital goods force society to look for new forms of overcoming social problems, which include transformative investments. The new investment paradigm, which provides for investing in solving social and environmental problems, has become widespread in many countries, the potential of this type of investment is growing every year, meeting the goals of sustainable development. Despite the fact that the investment directions of transformative investments involve investing in various spheres, this article considers only social aspects. In connection with the above, the purpose of the proposed work is to present a paradigmatic justification of transformative investments in the context of socially oriented theories. It should be noted that the phenomenon of transformative investments can theoretically be explained in the context of different theories and concepts, depending on research tasks. In this paper, the theories of social justice and social policy, the theory of the welfare state are considered. To understand the essence of transformative investments, the paper considers their main characteristics, which allowed reflecting the specifics of these investments and the features of their evaluation. Transformative projects are aimed at solving a significant social problem, they must bring financial returns and ensure guaranteed profitability, which distinguishes them from projects provided by charity or state support. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the fact that this group of theories (along with other theories) can serve as a theoretical platform for the study of transformative investments aimed at the development of the social sphere, complementing the works of Russian and foreign scientists. The results of theoretical studies conducted by the authors determine the choice of the main directions and forms of investments that allow optimizing the social policy of the state. The paper concludes that it is necessary to maintain a balance in the social and economic spheres, taking into account the already established institutions and preventing abrupt changes in the redistribution of income; providing the population with appropriate tools and its active participation in development processes.
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The phenomenon of social institution and its theoretical definition
Статья научная
Theoretical description of institutions as social phenomena requires that their adequate model be constructed. However, the concept of “social institution” has no universally accepted definition. The article discusses the phenomenon of social institution and analyzes its definitions. Researchers consider social institution from several points of view, but the existing definitions do not reflect all the features of social institutions. It has been recently acknowledged that institutions need to be developed slowly, and radical changes in social institutions often cause serious deterioration in their functioning. The theoretical model of social institution should explain the reasons for this stability. A good model should also explain other properties of social institutions, for example, their system and structural features. The paper proposes the model of institution as an open social system with blurred boundaries and an uncertain number of participants. At the macro level, institutions as social systems have a normative, ideal and organizational structure...
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