Regional economy. Рубрика в журнале - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Management tools for the region's socio-economic development
Статья научная
The purpose of the research is to assess the focusing of existing management tools on socio-economic development (SED) of the Russian Federation constituent entity. The practical rationale of the research is caused by general problems of regional development and the need to develop methodological approaches to their solution. The author used qualitative methods of cross-sectoral analysis, document analysis, and quantitative methods (those of principal components, variance calculation, correlations, regressions, and index construction). The novelty of the research is related to comparing management tools at the federal and regional levels, as well as to designing a number of administrative staff based on these tools. As a result of the study, the author proposes a method of management tools evaluation (SED strategy, priority projects, state programs), approves the methods of SED indices calculation and public services development, as well as the methods of rationing the number of managerial staff in line with SED priorities. The main conclusion is that the assessment of stated goals’ achievement is complicated by a low level of program documents’ compliance with official statistics indicators. Since the sectoral distribution of a number of state apparatus employees is not optimal, the author proposes its adjustment, focusing management personnel on achieving region’s development priorities. The results obtained are correlated with the labor market trends. The applied forecasting of the employees number is limited by the correctness level of SED and labor productivity target indicators. When developing management tools, the regions are recommended to take into account statistical indicators that are relatively objective and to focus the performers on achieving final socially significant results. The proposed method has the potential to be replicated in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation addressing similar problems in the field of SED.
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Methodological approach and tools for ensuring region's balanced spatial development
Статья научная
Due to the concentration of labor, financial, and other resources in agglomerations and “denudation” of regions' periphery, a number of significant problems are becoming more acute in the transformation process of spatial economic structure. Such problems threaten the balance of intra- and interregional development. One of them is an important differentiation of Russian regions' municipalities in terms of socio-economic development level. There is a dilemma of choosing the regional spatial policy vector: either to support the growth points' development (agglomerations, special economic zones, territories of advanced socio-economic development), or to reduce socio-economic inequality through additional support for the periphery development. Using the integration of the concepts of the reference frame and sub-regional approach, the research proposes a methodological approach to the balanced spatial development of the region. On the region's territory, the research distinguishes natural sub-regions, which are the elements of the territory's reference economic frame, and artificial sub-regions, which are based on inter-municipal cooperation. The essence of the approach is to establish balance between regulation of natural economic processes in the region (for example, institutionalization and reduction of agglomerations' negative effects) and state support for depressed territories' development (for example, program sub-regions' formation). Its usage in the regional management practice allows forming methodological basis for working out strategic documents for the region's spatial development, economic, organizational, institutional, and social instruments of regional policy. The work presents a set of tools for improving the spatial development balance of the Republic of Bashkortostan, related to the development of natural sub-regions which are already objective growth points in the region, as well as aimed at stimulating the economic self-development of depressed and peripheral territories of the Republic of Bashkortostan.
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Methodological aspects of the assessment of the investment and innovation potential of a region
Статья научная
The relevance of the study is caused by the fact that the increase of the investment activity, which has remained low over the last few years, is a necessary condition for the transition of the country's economy to an innovative development path. It leads to the preservation of technological backwardness which conserves the structure of the economy with a low share of the knowledge-intensive sector. The interdependence and interconnectedness of investment and innovation processes allows us to review the investment and innovation potential as the basis of their development. While studying scientific papers, it was revealed that issues of content, structure, and the evaluation of this potential are debatable, and they require further comprehension. The purpose of this article is to develop methodological provisions for assessing the investment and innovation potential of the region. In the course of studying the works of domestic and foreign scientists, the authors of the article investigated approaches to determining innovation and investment potentials and methods of their assessment, clarified the content of investment and innovation potential, identified its structural elements, and proposed a methodological approach to its assessment, which allows establishing the relationship between used investment resources and the results of the innovation activity. During the study, we assessed the investment and innovation potential of Russian regions, identified problems of its formation and the usage, as well as trends that make it possible to determine the guidelines for the development of investment and innovation processes. The methodological basis of the research are the methods of system analysis and synthesis, comparison, generalization, grouping and statistical methods. The results of the study may be of practical interest for regional authorities' activities and the management in order to improve the effectiveness of investment and innovation processes. Theoretical generalizations, contained in the article, might be used as materials for the discussion in a scientific discourse.
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Статья научная
Modern methodological approaches and techniques for studying agglomeration effects are aimed at determining and evaluating the spatial potentials of development and interaction of territories of various hierarchical levels. But the possibilities of modern software that allows detecting intraagglomeration spatial reserves - spatial potentials - on cartographic models are not taken into account. The work uses spatial-functional and synergetic (agglomeration) approaches, as well as potential method, statistical method and cartographic modeling. We reveal the theoretical basis for the formation of spatial potentials in the intra-agglomeration environment and propose a methodological approach to their determination based on agglomeration effects of demographic, settlement and economic structures of the Saint Petersburg agglomeration. According to the calculations obtained, we design cartographic models that correspond to the structures under consideration and reflect spatial potentials of agglomeration effects, which are represented by groups of five clusters. The levels of clusters of spatial potentials and their configurations are obtained with the help of the neural network software “Surfer Golden Software”. We find that groups of clusters within the demographic and settlement potentials structure - gravitational, high-potential, medium-potential and low-potential - have smaller territorial impact areas in contrast to similar groups of clusters of economic structure. At the same time, a very low-potential cluster of demographic and settlement structure significantly exceeds the area of the similar cluster of economic structure and spreads beyond the cities located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the Saint Petersburg agglomeration periphery. The areas for future research are related to the development of new methodological approaches and techniques aimed at searching for and modeling agglomeration effects and their spatial potentials in the functional structures of individual cities, urban agglomerations or regions (investment, innovation, environmental, transport, service, cultural and other structures). Another promising area consists in determining spatial potentials based on the agglomeration effects of individual large enterprises with the help of quantitative indicators reflecting their performance effectiveness; this direction is difficult to implement due to the lack of open statistical data.
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Статья научная
Banking capital plays a significant role in providing the financial foundations for the development of institutional sectors in regional systems, which include financial and non-financial corporations, households, public administration sector and foreign institutions. However, a study of the processes of banking capital flows between them shows that the banking sector currently does not perform its traditional functions of saving institutional sectors’ capital and providing them with loans, but carries out a speculative policy, contributing to a significant outflow of financial resources abroad and causing serious harm to the Russian economy. In this regard, the purpose of the work is to study the imbalances in the processes of banking capital flows between institutional sectors and to model the impact of bank investments attracted by institutional sectors on the socio-economic development of constituent entities of the Russian Federation. We have developed a methodological approach based on the methodology of forming balanced matrices of financial flows between institutional sectors using data from the primary accounting statements of loan institutions, the methodological principle of double entry bookkeeping of the System of National Accounts and methods of regression analysis using panel data. We built matrices of financial flows in the regions, characterizing the processes of bank capital flows between the sector of financial and non-financial corporations, public administration, households and foreign institutions, regression models characterizing the impact of bank investments attracted by each institutional sector on the indicators of socio-economic development of regional systems. The study has found that the capital raised by banks in the sector of non-financial corporations has a positive impact on the dynamics of the gross regional product of Russia’s constituent entities, leads to a decrease in unemployment in the regions, the number of people with incomes below the subsistence level, the degree of capital consumption, as well as an increase in the balanced financial performance of enterprises and the average monthly nominal wage.
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Modern development of small and medium-sized cities: trends and drivers
Статья научная
The processes of urbanization occurring in the world and in Russia, in addition to large cities and megacities, also affect small and medium-sized cities. However, while for the former there is a great deal of research on both the inner-city environment and socio-economic development in general, for the latter there is a lack of such studies. The main idea of the article is that an effective policy for the development of a city requires a comprehensive analysis of its place and role in the regional system and an understanding of the factors that ensure economic growth and create attractive conditions for the population. The purpose of the paper is to identify trends in and drivers of socio-economic development of small and medium-sized cities. The study identified problems and “bottlenecks” in the analysis of urban development. They include the weakness of methodological approaches to the assessment of current trends and factors in the development of small and medium-sized cities, taking into account their specifics, as well as the lack of necessary statistical information for a full-fledged analysis. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the fact that we propose our own methodology for determining the trends and factors in development of small and medium-sized cities, which differs from traditional approaches by including the analysis of the distribution of cities in the regional system (according to Zipf’s law) in the dynamics and constructing a system of econometric models of the influence of factors on social and economic development. Testing the proposed approach in the Belgorod Oblast revealed a trend of divergence of small and medium-sized cities, increasing imbalances in population distribution, and the growth of small urban and rural settlements near Belgorod. The scientific hypothesis of the study is that the socio-economic situation in small and medium-sized cities is primarily positively influenced by investment in fixed capital and only then by such factors as an increase in housing stock, educational development, the work of sports and cultural institutions. The factors contributing to the social and economic development of cities are investments in fixed capital, the total number of residents, especially schoolchildren, the housing supply, and the development of sports and cultural institutions. The research findings are of practical value for the design and implementation of development policies for small and medium-sized cities in Russia.
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Modern development of the system of cities in Russia: static and dynamic approaches
Статья научная
The article raises the issues of urban transformation. The provisions of the new economic geography state that large cities get agglomeration effects from overcrowding, businesses and amenities. But practice shows that medium and small cities often have more prospects for development. Borrowed size (the location of a small or medium-sized city or settlement near a larger one) allows residents to use some of the services of neighboring cities without incurring the associated costs. The possibility of borrowing agglomeration advantages is forming a new system of cities. The distribution of population and economic activity does not always occur around administrative centers, there is a polycentricity of spatial development. To analyze the system of cities we proposed to use static and dynamic approaches that allow us to determine more fully the reasons for the attractiveness of cities and population growth. We constructed a system of econometric models of the influence of high order urban functions - factors of economy, education, culture and sports - on the number of residents of cities in the Central Federal District of Russia as a whole and by size categories. The analysis of polycentricity of cities revealed that a high level of the indicator is observed in the Moscow, Vladimir, Belgorod, Tula, Tver and Kaluga oblasts, and low polycentricity is in the Lipetsk, Ryazan, Voronezh and Orel oblasts. It was determined that the attractiveness of cities and the growth of their population are influenced by high-order urban functions (business, science, sports and culture), the ability to take advantage of “borrowed” size, the external effects of the urban network and the level of inter-city cooperation. The most significant factor in the growth of the city is the number of schools. The second factor is the possibility for children and adolescents to join sports clubs. Budget expenditures have a positive impact on the growth of large, big and small cities. Cultural and recreational activities are significant for the attractiveness of cities with a population of up to 10 thousand people and from 15 to 20 thousand people. It was revealed that more than a half of settlements in the Central Federal District are cities and urban-type settlements with population less than 10 thousand people. For this group, all the considered development factors are statistically significant and important. The results can be used to further develop the ideas of static and dynamic analysis to assess the reasons for the attractiveness of cities, substantiate the “borrowed size factor”, and determine general trends in the system of cities formation. The practical value of the work lies in a better understanding of the principles for creating an attractive city for residents at different stages and conditions of its development; it can be used in the development of appropriate socio-economic programs at the city and regional levels.
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Modernization of a region as a heterarchical system
Статья научная
Modern world is dynamic, variable and full of risks, which requires the development of flexible and dynamic mechanisms to modernize regional social systems. For modern Russian regions, different in pace of development and people's quality of life, it is important to develop such theoretical and methodological approaches to based to identify resources and problem areas of modernization. The research novelty lies in the analysis of modernization in a region using the theoretical and methodological capabilities of the system approach, the concepts of heterarchy and modernization. We emphasize the overlap of subject fields of terms “heterarchy”, “region”, and “modernization” in matters of principles (value basis) of modernization process management in the region using the heterarchy resources. Based on the results of the monitoring sociological study conducted during 2010-2016 in the Astrakhan Oblast sing the interview method at the place of residence according to the Standard Methodology of the all-Russian program “Socio-Cultural Evolution of Russia and its Regions”, we revealed the strengthening of the vertical of power, that is, hierarchical relations in the institutional and regulatory sphere...
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Modernization of the economy of Karelia
Статья научная
The article briefly outlines the main directions of the modernization policies directed on maintenance stable sustainable development of economy of the Republic of Karelia. Measures taken by the authorities and business structures to effectively manage the processes that contribute to the socio-economic development of the region are considered.
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Mortgage availability vs. availability of housing. We wanted the best, but it turned out...?
Статья научная
The Russian government's decision to lower mortgage rates in the spring of 2020 was announced as a measure to support the population during the spread of coronavirus infection. However, is this decision optimal and strategically correct in terms of improving the availability of housing for Russian citizens in the future? In the context of rising real estate prices, this issue in domestic economic research is insufficiently addressed. The relevance of the research is additionally conditioned by the evaluation necessity of the “bubble” formation probability on the primary housing market due to the “double boom”. In this paper, we present the study results of availability of housing dynamics for the period from 2000 to 2020. We identified the regions with the lowest and the highest availability of housing. We have studied the current state of the mortgage lending market in Russia and constructed a multiple regression factor model for residential real estate prices on the new housing market. The scientific novelty of the presented research consists in the determination of the reasons of the rash growth of real estate prices in the spring of 2020 on the Russian housing market and their forecast for the medium term period. It is recognized that in modern conditions the key factor contributing to the increase in primary housing prices is the reduction in mortgage interest rates on loans. The decision to sharply reduce the interest rate has caused an increased demand for housing and the subsequent excessive growth of prices, which ultimately did not contribute to the availability of housing. We substantiate the absence of a “bubble” and the reasons for lower prices on the Russian residential real estate market in the short term. We have implemented the forecasting of primary housing prices through a combination of traditional economic tools and neural networks. The persistence of significant price levels on the Russian market of new buildings in the medium term can be explained by the negative trends in the development of key influencing factors and other macroeconomic indicators characterizing the socio-economic development of the country. We have proposed managerial measures aimed at expanding the availability of housing for Russian citizens.
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On the methodology of checking integral estimates of socio-economic objects
Статья научная
A reliable and high-quality assessment of scientific, technological, and innovative development of territories helps to define socio-economic conditions and forecast economic growth dynamics of a given subject. The usage of integral indicators is among the most popular approaches toward assessing science, innovative activity, and other socio-economic objects. However, since a collective synthetic category is estimated, accuracy of this metric’s characterization of an intangible subject is uncertain. In this regard, issues related to the development of methodology for checking aforementioned provisions are relevant. The purpose of the study is to define the reliability of artificially derived integral complex estimates that in turn describe various socio-economic processes and phenomena. Scientific novelty of the research is to develop an approach to determining the reliability of integral metrics based on mathematical statistical tools. We attempted to determine the quality of artificially derived integrated estimates that, according to their creators, characterize various manifestations of science, innovation, and technology. We applied corresponding methods (variance, correlation, and regression analysis) using the Innovation Development Index of RF constituent entities and assessment of territories’ scientific and technological potential. The results obtained are of practical importance in relation to the evaluation practices of the scientific and innovative sphere carried out in the Russian economy. The theoretical significance of the study is characterized by the development of an approach that can be applied to other socio-economic objects. We conclude that integral assessments become an extremely subjective tool when applied to humanitarian areas. They can be used correctly if there is a confirmed connection with the indicators: integral assessments should influence them or have a strong response from them.
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Статья научная
Effective functioning of economy is possible only if all economic sectors function successfully. However, only the regions with a developed industrial complex can provide a decent quality of life and promote economic growth. At the same time, certain systemic problems have emerged in the industrial complex during the years of market reforms; these problems can be solved only with the help of profound and comprehensive transformations, such as an extensive use of advanced scientific and technological achievements and the formation of a fundamentally new approach to the development of the industrial complex. Under current economic conditions the functioning and development of the industrial complex depends to a great extent on the efficiency of their management mechanism. Therefore, it is expedient to begin modernization of the industrial complex and enhance its competitiveness with the changes in the existing management system. The paper outlines main problems in the development of the industrial complex, presents the typology of regions according to the level of development of the industrial complex...
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Статья научная
As the spatial structure of the economy is undergoing transformation, we observe the aggravation of a number of problems that hinder sustainable development of constituent entities of the Russian Federation; and a special place among them belongs to significant intraregional differences in socio-economic parameters. Overcoming spatial disparities should become an imperative for the development of the country and its regions in the long term. This confirms the need for further scientific understanding of the complex of issues related to the improvement of regulation of spatial development of regions; this determines the goal of our paper. In the course of the study conducted on the materials of the Vologda Oblast, we have found out that the majority of municipalities have an asymmetrical type of development with increasing differences between the areas of concentration of economic activity near major cities in the region and the rest of the territory; this indicates the process of compression of space. The paper proposes an approach to state regulation of spatial development of the region, based on its representation, on the one hand, as a complex system, and on the other hand, as a socio-economic area. Scientific novelty of the approach lies in the fact that it is based on principles and methods that help promote the development and self-development of municipalities, take into account their features and patterns of functioning, and orient municipalities toward solving strategic problems. The study is based on methods such as system analysis and system synthesis, generalization, comparison, and comparative analysis. The results of the study can be used in the activities of regional authorities and local government. Theoretical generalizations contained in the article can be used as materials for scientific discussion.
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Статья научная
The successful experience of France in implementing the concept of “growth poles” byF. Perroux led to the widespread usage of polarized development ideas in the elaboration of spatial strategies. The Russian Far East (FE) has accumulated considerable, and rather contradictory, experience of creating local growth points. The purpose of the study is to analyze the Far East’s experience of forming local zones with preferential economic regimes, to identify problems of its implementation, and to assess the impact of special local zones’ regimes on the economy of the macro-region. The analysis of the performance of local zones’ functioning was based on the assessment of the degree of achieving targets for creating local “growth points”. The assessment of the impact of local zones on the economy of FE was based on a comparative analysis of enterprises’ demographics, changes in the revenue structure of consolidated budgets of Far Eastern regions, and the quality of regional finances for 2013-2019. The implementation of these approaches showed that the business climate of Far Eastern local zones has a positive nature for its residents, but it has not yet been established; in the absence of a clear position of the state concerning the formation of propulsive industries in most local areas, anchor projects do not have a propulsive nature, and a significant number of small and medium enterprises is loosely connected with enterprises-leaders of zones. Orientation of specialization of Far Eastern local zones toward domestic demand and import substitution, which is objectively formed within the sanctions war, can slow down its export specialization; preferential climate of local zones has no obvious positive impact on the business climate of Far Eastern entities of the Federation, and the growing number of residents with preferential business conditions in local zones dissonant with demographics of FE enterprises. There is a deterioration of the quality of regional finances and the decrease of the taxable mass of profits. It implies the reduction of the number of profitable enterprises in FE as the result of the economic situation deterioration and the introduction of a preferential tax regime in region’s local areas.
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Статья научная
One of the priority areas in the development of municipal formations in the context of the new reform of local self-government in Russia is the transformation of the system of local self-government, including further consolidation of territorial systems at the municipal level. These issues are to a certain extent reflected in scientific studies and in the research on agglomeration processes as well. At the same time, in the methodological aspect, insufficient attention is paid to the transformation of municipal governance. We believe it is necessary to focus not only on general patterns, but also on the specifics of development of municipal formations located around a large city; these provisions have determined the relevance of the work. The purpose of our study is to develop a methodological approach to substantiating priorities and tools for the transformation of municipal governance in the context of the new reform of local self-government. To this end, we use methods such as analysis and synthesis, structural, functional, monographic, statistical methods, review of municipal practices, etc. Scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of a methodological approach to substantiating priorities and tools for the transformation of municipal governance in the context of the new reform of local self-government. We show that transformation methods such as unification of rural settlements and transition to a single-level system of organization of local self-government, transfer of powers from the level of rural settlement to the level of municipal district, development of inter-municipal cooperation provide positive socio-economic effects for municipal formations. The findings of our work can be replicated and used in the practice of managing the development of municipal formations in Russia; they can also serve as a basis for further research on this topic concerning the improvement of the management system at the local level.
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Статья научная
The challenges that Russia has to face due to the unstable geopolitical situation in the world make it necessary to search for internal sources of development and enhance the efficiency of territorial management. Under the circumstances, in our opinion, the priority object of state policy should be the Northern and Arctic territories, which have a huge natural resource and economic and geopolitical potential. At the same time, their development in the post-Soviet period has accumulated a set of issues that require understanding and development of mechanisms to address them, which is the goal of the present paper. The analysis has shown that the market reforms of the 1990s carried out in the European North of Russia and in its Arctic zone led to increased depopulation, degradation and primitivization of industrial production, curtailment of agricultural production, decline in the quality of life, growth of concentration of economic and social activity in the “nodal” points and degradation of the potential of peripheral municipalities...
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Статья научная
The intensification of structural transformation of the economy in Russia and its regions in the context of geopolitical instability requires searching for the most promising types of economic activity that could become drivers of development in the new economic conditions. This premise is especially relevant for the Northwest of Russia due to the fact that the economy in this macroregion has been subjected to the strongest negative impact of foreign trade restrictions. Thus, the aim of our study is to determine sectoral priorities of regional development in the form of promising economic specializations within a single macroregion. To achieve the goal, we address the following tasks: to develop a methodology for searching for promising economic specializations at the macroregional level; identify existing sectoral specializations in the Northwest of Russia; outline the profile of promising economic specializations in the Northwestern Federal District, taking into account possible interregional interactions. Based on our own methodological approach, which is the novelty of the study, we identify promising value chains in the timber industry, machine-building industries and the chemical industry. According to the results of the study, we compile profiles of promising economic specializations for regions in the Northwest of Russia; this is also an original scientific result. Based on the analysis of global economic development trends, we identify potential market niches for the industries under consideration. In addition, we propose measures to promote the development of promising economic specializations in the macroregion. The findings of the study can be useful to a wide range of researchers in the field of sectoral and regional economics, as well as federal and regional authorities in the development and adjustment of various strategic and sectoral documents.
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Статья научная
The development of tourism industry at the regional level is relevant for all the subjects of the Russian Federation. The issue is especially acute in those of them that do not have rich cultural-historical heritage and unique natural-climatic conditions. In particular, these areas include highly urbanized industrial regions of the country, which at present do not make an effective use of their potential for the development of domestic and inbound tourism. The subject of the research in this paper is tourist activity in federal districts of the Russian Federation. The purpose of the paper is to analyze the volume of tourist services in the Russian Federation and to substantiate the development of industrial tourism in the regions for the purpose of attracting additional tourist flows. The study uses the system approach, the basic scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, deduction and induction, and statistical analysis methods. One of the innovations in the tourism business of the Russian Federation could be the organization and conducting of excursions to the enterprises of the country not only for official delegations and business partners, but also for ordinary tourists...
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Статья научная
As an attempt to extract positive experience to overcome difficulties of an extraordinary nature, we tried to appeal to historic examples of active participation of science in solving problems of regional development due to the general national tasks. The paper deals with the experience of the Commission for Study of Natural Productive Forces under the Head of the Republic of Komi (1993-2004), which is of scientific interest regarding the use of the results of research works of strategic planning and project management, taking into account the extraordinary circumstances caused by the sharp transformation of Russia’s economic structure. The article shows that it happens in a more constructive way when researchers and practitioners are united organizationally within the framework of the “problem - program” methodology. The second line of analysis of such experience is to identify the correspondence between the scientific interpretation ofthe concept of“productive forces” and the content ofstate strategic planning documents. To return productive forces to the system “science - practice”, it is necessary to eliminate the substitution of this concept by resources and production and to select appropriate indicators of their measurement. The main subject of this dimension becomes “force”, which is presented as the force and result of natural processes, scientific and technological progress and new forms of production organization.
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Статья научная
The article is devoted to the issue of housing affordability on the Russian market. Based on official statistics, the authors reveal the main trends of the regional housing market development. The article reviews government priorities in the housing policy and presents calculations of the housing affordability index in the Vologda Oblast according to several scenarios. The authors present the results of the ISEDT RAS population survey conducted in the Vologda Oblast concerning the level of people's satisfaction with their housing conditions. The results indicate that only 37% of the population are satisfied with their housing, 13% - rated their living conditions as bad. The authors research best practices of a number of constituent entities of the Russian Federation in order to address the shortage, quality and affordability of housing. Numerous studies by Russian scientists indicate the necessity of forming and introducing new tools and mechanisms to improve housing affordability in the Russian practice...
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