Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Journal articles - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
All articles: 1817
Tools for state regulation of the region's agriculture
Scientific article
The article analyzes the issues of providing state support to agricultural enterprises in the Vologda Oblast. It classifies its municipal districts according to the production potential of agriculture. On this basis, the article proposes the ways of reducing the differentiation of the districts according to the level of their capacity development by using the tools of budget support, lending, leasing, and insurance. Furthermore, the article provides calculations of their efficiency.
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Topical issues of labour potential development in the Republic of Komi
Scientific article
Labour potential of the region is characterized by the size and health of the population, a progressive age distribution and economic activity ratio, an employment rate, the structure of labour resources and their professional competence, as well as the changes in these characteristics and the factors that cause them. The article deals with the trend in changing the quantitative characteristics of labour potential in the Republic of Komi for the period after the 1989 census. The current state of labour potential in the republic and its utilization level are estimated in the article.
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Topical issues of the improvement of intergovernmental dealings in the system of local government
Scientific article
The intension of “intergovernmental dealings” is expounded in the article. It deals with the main problems of intergovernmental dealings in the system of local self-government, which is a fundamental element of the budget system in the Russian Federation. It is difficult to transform the budget sphere of the country without strengthening of it. It is shown that the real local self-government in Russia is determined by the provision of municipalities with their own financial assets. The authors have analyzed the actual state of the financial relationship between the bodies of state power and local self-government. They have outlined a set of measures aimed at the improvement of intergovernmental dealings at the municipal level.
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Scientific article
The sustainable development of tourism in Russia requires expanding the supply and increasing tourism infrastructure facilities in the country’s regions. Many constituent entities of the Russian Federation have significant but unrealized tourism potential. The Vologda Region is among them, where tourism is a promising economic specialization. The multiplier effects generated by the tourism industry require appropriate measurement for national and regional economies. In this regard, assessing the economic effects of tourism development in the region and substantiating its role as a factor in regional economic growth become relevant. This necessitated the development of methodological tools for identifying promising projects, calculating their effects on the regional economy, and formulating practical recommendations based on the assessment. The methodological basis of the research was the input-output balance toolkit, including the development of authorial input-output tables. The information base consisted of official data from Rosstat and the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS), relevant analytical and expert materials, as well as intermediate tables of resources and uses of the Russian economy. The theoretical foundation included scientific works by domestic and foreign authors on tourism infrastructure development, assessment methodology, scenario modeling, and forecasting of economic processes. The scientific novelty of the work lies in the development of a methodological approach that integrates input-output analysis and scenario modeling, adapted to the modern conditions of Russian statistics, for assessing the multiplier effects of tourism on the regional economy. Using multipliers, the multiplicative effects of realizing the resource potential of the tourism industry were assessed, and ways to unlock this potential are proposed.
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Tourism development in the rural suburban area
Scientific article
The article presents the results of the assessments of the tourism potential in Vologda Municipal District: the assessment of the tourism sector; its influence on the social-economic development of the municipality; the ways to make the usage of the tourism potential more effective.
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Trade and investment interactions in the Asia-Pacific Region: Effects of integration agreements
Scientific article
The aim of the work is to provide a long-term assessment of the impact of integration agreements on trade and investment interactions between Asia-Pacific countries in 1992–2023. It is determined that the Asia-Pacific region accounts for the largest share of trade and investment interactions worldwide, with intraregional trade in goods and direct capital flows being the main source. The study shows that, in terms of reducing trade and economic barriers between countries, integration agreements can be classified into shallow and deep agreements, with the Asia-Pacific region taking the lead in their creation. Based on a database compiled from various sources on trade and capital flows between Asia-Pacific countries, and using gravity modeling, the long-term cumulative effects of shallow and deep integration agreements on trade and the inflow of accumulated foreign direct investment (FDI) are estimated. The general stimulating effect of integration agreements on trade among Asia-Pacific countries was identified as increasing trade by an average of 21.9%, while their influence on FDI inflow was found to be invariant. We found that shallow integration agreements between Asia-Pacific countries reduced FDI inflows by 47.5% and promoted trade growth by 46.0%; as for deep integration agreements, they increased trade volumes between Asia-Pacific countries by 15.5% and FDI inflows by 23.6%. It was shown that, within the Asia-Pacific region, shallow and deep integration agreements conflicted with each other in terms of attracting FDI. Due to the suppression of FDI inflows by trade in goods and the longer duration of shallow agreements, their long-term cumulative trade effect was greater than that of deep agreements. Deep integration agreements encouraged both trade and direct capital flows between Asia-Pacific countries, pointing to the creation of conditions for complementarity between trade and FDI within more advanced formats of economic convergence aimed at reducing production cooperation costs. Unlike trade, FDI exchange in the Asia-Pacific region proved to be more sensitive to existing barriers to economic interaction and less flexible toward recipient countries of such investments
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Trade effects in the commodity markets of the Asia-Pacific region
Scientific article
The aim of the research is to assess long-term effects of trade integration in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) at the level of commodity markets - industrial and primary goods. Over the previous three decades, trade within the APR has significantly increased, thanks to the lowering of trade and economic barriers as a result of trade agreements and the WTO accession by almost all countries in the subglobal region. We show that trade between the Asia-Pacific countries greatly exceed their trade with other countries of the world, due to the increase in the exchange of goods, both primary and industrial goods including in the production chains of transnational corporations. Estimates derived from the gravity model indicate that in the long term the overall positive effect of trade integration in the APR is manifested through the complementarity of regionalization and globalization processes, with the dominance of the latter. The regionalization process stimulates an increase in most of the aggregate trade in industrial goods, while trade of primary goods is generated exclusively by globalization, which explains the motivation of a number of countries specializing in exports, including Russia, in their reluctance to expand trade agreements with other APR countries. The article points out that along with the process of regionalization, globalization in the Asia-Pacific region contributes to the expansion of trade in industrial goods, with the production chains of transnational corporations successfully functioning within the framework of trade agreements. The assessments also point to signs of the exhaustion of globalization as a source of increasing trade in industrial goods in the APR, which may be related to the fragmentation of the subglobal region as manifested in creating trade megaformats in recent years. We assume that under the current instability of foreign policy processes in the APR, the introduction of various kinds of restrictions can lead to the transformation of trade and economic relations in the sub-global region, manifesting itself in the redistribution of the accumulated benefits of integration for the Asia-Pacific countries.
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Scientific article
The article uses the synthesis of the institutional theory tools and synergetics for analyzing the need to optimize the existing system of gender power institutions in the modern Russian economy. It is known that the performance effectiveness of the projected institutions is determined by the fact that economic agents are in need of such changes. In this regard, the article is focused on a study of the processes of transformation of the traditional type of gender power disposition in Russian families. It has been determined that they are characterized by a more equal distribution of functions in the organization of household. Therefore, currently, along with the traditional type of gender power, we define two more types: the egalitarian type, when the interests of both spouses are considered and there is symmetry in the distribution of household responsibilities, and the transitional type (interim version of gender interactions between spouses). The family is considered as a closed and an open system for determining the efficiency of reproduction of these gender power types in the modern economy...
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Transformation of investment and savings behavior of high-income groups during the crisis
Scientific article
On the basis of results of the study conducted in several large cities of Russia the article presents key models of investment and savings behavior of high-income groups in the unfolding crisis. It shows the impact on the choice of a particular model of respondents’ views about the situation in the banking sector and the economy as a whole, determines the nature of emerging attitudes and expectations. It analyses well-to-do households’ approaches to the choice of a bank and a type of deposit and their willingness to use other ways of investing, including participation in the system of voluntary pension insurance; reflects the experience of borrowing and the attitude to different credit products. Negative phenomena in the economy and the financial sector concern households, invoking parallels with the crises of 1998 and 2008 and even with the era of the 1990s. In the near future the recession is expected to worsen. The respondents, focusing on the effect of sanctions and falling oil prices, believe that it will be short...
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Transformation of labor values among high school students: A comparative analysis for 2018–2024
Scientific article
In the context of accelerating digitalization and increasing uncertainty in the labor market, labor values of high school students become a key indicator of adaptation to future professional trajectories, which determines the relevance of this study within the field of social and economic change. The purpose of the research is to analyze the transformation of the structure of labor values among school students based on a comparative assessment of data from 2018 and 2024 and to identify stable typologies of value-based strategies under conditions of uncertainty. The methodological framework includes quantitative research methods: rank analysis to compare the significance of latent value constructs over time, cluster analysis to identify typological groups, and descriptive statistics. Scientific novelty lies in the empirical identification of the “flattening” of the value hierarchy, reflecting a shift from a rigidly hierarchical model to a polycentric configuration of labor expectations. In addition, the study substantiates three distinct value strategies: investment-combinational, diffuse-adaptive, and institutional-protective clusters, which represent different modes of value-based adaptation to structural labor market changes. The results demonstrate a substantial increase in the importance of work–life balance and the stability of interest in meaningful work content, alongside a declining priority of traditional markers such as long-term employment stability. These findings indicate the growing role of flexible and situational value orientations associated with Generation Z digital socialization. The main limitation of the study is the regional specificity of the sample, which restricts the generalization of the results. Future research directions include interregional comparisons and longitudinal studies aimed at deepening the understanding of value transformation processes and enhancing the applicability of the findings for career guidance policies and educational practices.
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Transformation of machine building of the Republic of Karelia
Scientific article
The article considers the process of mechanical engineering transformation from the beginning of market reforms up to the present time. The article provides the comprehensive analysis of the republic’s machine-building sector, represented by several types of activities, and presents the dynamics of indicators characterizing its development. Besides, it defines the region’s machine building development prospects.
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Transformation of social policy in Russia in the context of population ageing
Scientific article
Modern social policy in Russia is formed under the influence of population ageing. The paper presents our point of view on the current state of Russia's social policy. The relevance of the study is due to the fact that the demographic situation is undergoing inevitable changes and the role of the elderly in socio-economic life is becoming increasingly important. The goal of our work is to investigate the specifics of social policy in Russia in the context of population ageing. The novelty of the work consists in the fact that it dwells upon the capabilities of the social group “elderly” as a social resource. We mainly use the following research methods: analysis of laws and regulations at various levels, analysis of statistical and demographic data and results of sociological surveys conducted by VolRC RAS, and content analysis of website materials. The study was carried out both at the national and regional levels (on the example of the Vologda Oblast). We reveal trends in reorienting Russia's social policy toward a broader interpretation of ageing and application of the concept of active longevity. However, the values of active longevity indices in Russia are low in comparison with European countries. According to sociological surveys, the elderly population of the region, which includes citizens over 60 years of age, preserves the values of active life, and many today's pensioners do not think their state of health can interfere with their ability to work. We show how interaction between the state, civil society and citizens is developing in modern social policy. We reveal territorial unevenness in the development of the non-profit sector that addresses social problems of older citizens. In the end, we put forward proposals on updating social policy in the country in the context of population ageing.
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Transformation of tax incentives for investments in human capital
Scientific article
The study analyzes the experience of tax support for investing in human capital in the Russian Federation, and also evaluates the effects of such support. We systematize tools for tax incentives aimed at the development of human capital by subject (organization and individual), type of taxes, and level at which they are introduced (federal, regional, local). We determine the amount of tax benefits aimed at investments in human capital per taxpayer and assess fiscal significance of the shortfall in budget revenues of Russia’s budgetary system. We put forward directions to develop the system of tax support for investments in human capital in two aspects: classical and comprehensive. The classical aspect assumes parallel tax regulation of the parties to the investment process in human capital (individuals, organizations, infrastructure entities). The complex aspect assumes simultaneous tax regulation of the parties to the investment process in human capital through the system of state support for E-STEM education. The options for making up for the shortfall in budget revenues in connection with the expansion of the package of tax incentives are proposed. Such options, in particular, include: progressive taxation of personal income using indexed graduated scales, legalization of shadow income from renting real estate to individuals through tax deductions, establishment of joint and several liability in social insurance of employees and employers. Practical significance of the work consists in the possibility of using specific proposals to amend the legislation of the Russian Federation in the field of tax incentives for human capital by public authorities in the development of public policy measures aimed at economic growth.
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Scientific article
The global demographic trend of the 20th and early 21st century was the process of urbanization, which manifested itself, among other things, in the concentration of the population in large and superlarge megacities with a rapid decline in the rural population. In Russia the transformation of resettlement was expressed in polarization and localized compression of the socio-economic space, fragmentation of the supporting framework of territories. Despite the fact that the issues of resettlement transformation at the national and regional level have been studied, there is still a need for in-depth research on its intraregional trends and patterns. The purpose of the work was to look into the peculiarities of urban and rural resettlement transformation and its demographic manifestations at the regional and municipal level. The model region was the Vologda Oblast, a typical constituent entity of the Russian Federation and northern Non-Chernozem region. The information base consisted of data from the All-Russian Population Censuses of 2002, 2010 and 2020, and the current statistical records of Rosstat and its territorial department in the Vologda Oblast. The methods of cartography, structural-dynamic analysis of resettlement characteristics and demographic indicators, the typology of municipal entities by the ratio of the components of population change, and the main indicators of the demographic situation were used. We have identified the following trends in the transformation of resettlement systems in the region: increasing polarization of urban and rural resettlement, expressed in the concentration of residents either in large or in small settlements; depopulation of rural areas; weakening of the supporting framework of urban resettlement (system of small towns); strengthening “focality” rural settlement. In more than half of the Vologda Oblast municipal entities the urban and rural population decrease is caused by the double effect of natural and migration losses. At the same time, the number and the share of such municipalities have grown significantly over the past 20 years. Some municipalities have the potential of migration growth or age structure, but only in Kaduysky District there is an increase in population due to the migration growth of urban residents. In the conclusion the threats and opportunities for development for different types of municipalities are outlined.
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Transitional forms of universal basic income as a real prospect for Russia
Scientific article
The article presents the research results aimed at developing the theoretical provisions of the universal basic income concept summarizing and systematizing the results of a survey of Russian experts conducted by the authors about its principles, the possibilities of introduction in Russia, priority population categories for testing it, assessing the reality of expanding the tools of universal basic income taking into account the development of transitional forms of its use during the COVID-19 pandemic. The work reveals the relevance of UBI concept development in the context of the need to overcome mass poverty in Russia. The result of the theoretical analysis shows that generally recognized UBI principles (universality, unconditionality, individual nature of monetary payments, their regularity) are justified by long-term trends in social policy evolution. The prospect of introducing universal basic income is presented as a qualitative transition (leap) in implementation of the latter. The social policy measures, closest to implementation of UBI principles, are characterized as its transitional forms including experiments on its introduction. To assess the practical feasibility of UBI transitional forms, the article uses the results of a survey of experts from different Russian regions conducted with the authors' participation and a pilot experiment and modeling of the results of UBI toolkit implementation. The paper proposes a possible scheme for implementing UBI tools in Russia, as well as pilot projects for low-income families with children, graduates of universities and secondary vocational educational institutions during the transition from study to the first place of work, the unstable employed (including the unemployed). The authors assess the paradox of activating the implementation of UBI principles in the context of the COVID-2019 pandemic under unfavorable financial conditions as confirming the reality of the prospects for its transitional forms for Russia. The results of the study can contribute to the development of discussions about the introduction of UBI tools in the Russian Federation, and to the promotion of its wide experimental testing for different population categories. It is advisable to continue research in the aspect of analyzing the experience of developing social support in the context of a pandemic and modeling the possible effects and costs of introducing UBI.
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Trends and promising models forming industrial clusters in the Russian Federation
Scientific article
The purpose for the research is to develop and substantiate the models forming regional industrial clusters amid modern Russian economy. The article presents performance indicators of economic space clustering in Russian regions, identifies the main stages and prospects for generating of the “fourth wave” of clustering. The study formulates the quantitative approach to identifying regional industrial clusters and their further parameterization in the framework of a comprehensive multi-level clustering model of economic space of the region. In contrast to similar studies, the research focuses on trends in the formation of innovative multi-cluster units which integrate cluster initiatives for the development of high-tech industrial production. The scientific novelty is presented by the model of inter-sector interaction between current regional industrial clusters, as well as the author's model of perspective development of cluster initiatives amid innovation-driven economy...
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Trends and prospects in sociodemographic dynamics of Russia: philosophical and economical approach
Scientific article
The study is aimed at analyzing the long-term historical dynamics of sociodemographic processes in Russia over the period of 500 years and elaborating the directions for overcoming the current sociodemographic crisis. The novelty of the research consists of considering cyclic sociodemographic processes with a significant horizon period (half a millennium), and studying the impact of government regulations in the country starting from the “the Time of Troubles”, through the reforms of 1861, the revolution of 1917 and the transformation of 1991, on demographic bifurcations. The authors introduce the statistical information regarding the population of Russia from 1500 to the present moment; the researchers propose to use the philosophical and economical approach (the theory of population economy) analyzing the population problems based on the theory of economy's philosophy and the theory of economy by S.N. Bulgakov and Yu.M. Osipov, the professors from the Lomonosov Moscow State University; and by 2025 to elaborate and adopt the social doctrine of the Russian Federation. Using the historical material the authors prove that the mechanisms and institutions of state regulation in the country can create conditions affecting the change of the population's reproductive behavior. The article presents the comparative analysis of the proposed theory of “population economy” and traditional ones of economic demography and population economics, and describes the main postulates of the theory of “population economy”. The researchers mark the factors that should be taken into account in composing the social doctrine of the Russian Federation. The research results can be used for justifying the long-term strategy of the sociodemographic policy in Russia.
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Trends in Russian education reform in the predictive estimates of demographic indicators
Scientific article
The article presents the findings of a retrospective and forward-looking analysis of transformations and reforms in the Russian education system. It provides predictive estimates of its development, taking into account the demographic indicators of various age groups. The objectives are to analyze the existing trends in education system reform and to design a methodology (mechanism) for assessing the development of, and the demand for, educational services at different levels of instruction. The object of the study is the Russian education system, and the subject is the selected demographic indicators corresponding to the relevant age groups. The research design comprised three stages: first, conducting a retrospective and forward-looking analysis of education reform trends; second, constructing predictive estimates of the development of educational levels by applying the authors' ridge model; and third, visualizing the results obtained for the Russian education system and for several of the country's regions. The information base consisted of data from Rosstat and EMISS. According to the findings, by 2035 student numbers will decline at practically all levels of education in Russia: at the preschool level, the contraction will amount to 10–11%; at the school level, the decline could reach 13.9%; the system of secondary vocational education will "lose" every tenth student, and higher education will contract by 14–15% relative to the 2025 level. The uniqueness and novelty of the methodology lie in its ability to predict, with a certain degree of probability, the demand for various levels of education, taking demographic indicators into account. The approach is universal and can be applied at the regional, oblast, and local levels. Accounting for regional specificities will make it possible to organize the process of managing and reforming the education system more effectively, with a view to training the necessary personnel. The methodology can be applied to assessing the effectiveness of federal national projects. This is unquestionably important for the pursuit of the strategic objectives of the country's socio-economic development and industrial sovereignty. The results of the study can be used by analysts, scholars, and administrators who deal with education issues.
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