Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1640
Socio-economic differentiation of space: inconsistencies between the theory and regulation practice
Статья научная
The article notes the inconsistency between significant efforts aimed at resolving the differentiation issue of the social-economic development and low effectiveness of countries, regions. The article analyzes the theories relating to the subject matter of asymmetric development and current reality. The author argues that the modern economic theory leaves unanswered the question concerning the possibilities to eliminate the issue of inequalities within the existing world order, which can potentially result in social tensions and conflicts. The article notes the specifics of the Russian research experience with regard to the socio-economic differentiation: great number of scientific works, extrinsic interest of the management system, lack of theoretical development, research bias. The criticism of the basic research and regulation postulates of the differentiation in Russia allowed determining the main problem - the necessity to develop the quantitative analysis of the differentiation issue.
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Статья научная
Complex socio-economic estimation of the seven preserves of the regional importance situated in the Komi Republic, including consideration of the three components (ecological, social and economic) is carried out. While analyzing the condition and the features of the particularly protected natural territories their influence on the reserves’ efficiency has been revealed. The socio-economic problems of the preserves’ territories are also revealed. The list of the territories’ ecological services is represented, and these services’ economic estimation is carried out. The alternativeness of approaches for the time factor’s account (the problem of discounting) is noted.
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Socio-economic indicators of Russia’s national development goals: trends and forecast
Статья научная
The article presents the findings of a research on the achievability of a number of socio-economic indicators that are stated in the national development goals of Russia for the period up to 2030. The aim of the work is to analyze the possibility of achieving the indicators reflected in Russia’s national development goals by individual federal districts based on forecasting and creating an appropriate rating. The study includes three stages: first, to analyze available statistical data and select indicators for analysis; second, to build three forecast scenarios (pessimistic, neutral, optimistic); third, to visualize the results obtained and design a rating of federal districts according to the achievability of the declared parameters of development goals. Information base includes Rosstat data (statistical collections “Regions of Russia. Socio-economic indicators” for 2020-2023), as well as monitoring indicators of the minimum wage for the period from 2013 to 2024. We arrange federal districts in three groups: with a high level of achievability of indicators of national development goals (Central Federal District, North Caucasus Federal District), with a medium level (Northwestern Federal District, Southern Federal District, Ural Federal District, Volga Federal District) and with a low level (Siberian Federal District, Far Eastern Federal District). According to the forecast and the generalized rating, by 2030 none of the federal districts will be able to fully achieve the required level of the indicators under consideration. The uniqueness and novelty of the results we have obtained are due to the possibility of comparing the achievability of indicators in different time intervals and the declared values of Russia’s national development goals. The proposed rating can be vertically and horizontally scaled by expanding the number of analyzed indicators. The technique we propose and the results we have obtained can be used by representatives of all levels of legislative and executive authorities when assessing the declared socio-economic parameters of national development goals, including the implementation of other national projects, as well as by a wide range of scientists and researchers engaged in forecasting and modeling at the macro, meso and micro levels.
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Статья научная
The article is devoted to the problem of interregional differences in the economic area of the Russian Federation. The research covers a long period (from 1990 to 2020), since this period saw significant changes in the economic, institutional and political structure of the country. The assessment of the level of differences of regions is based on the main socio-economic indicators, data on which are formed in the system of state regional statistics. The Theil index was used as the basic method for measuring inequality. This made it possible to assess the dynamics of the spatial localization of economic activity in terms of the main socio-economic indicators, as well as form the groundwork for continuing the research - assessing its intragroup and intergroup components in the sectoral aspect. For a structural analysis of the problem of regional differences, we propose our own algorithm that allows us to form a discrete variation series and calculate the integral decile coefficient. The numerical implementation of the proposed algorithm made it possible to compile a multidimensional classification of regions according to the level of their economic activity and calculate the decile coefficient on this basis; the decile coefficient integrates the totality of the main socio-economic indicators adopted for the research. The results of the research show the long-term dynamics of the growth of differences and its significant level in comparison with the pre-reform period. A numerical assessment of the measure of differences, measured using the integral decile coefficient for a set of basic economic indicators of the regions, has been compiled. On this basis, it was found that in the long term (1995-2020) the level of economic differences of the regions increased from 2.4 to 5.6 times. A classification of regions according to the level of economic activity has been compiled, which reflects the nature of the differences of the regions of the Russian Federation, as well as the geography of the location of centers of concentration of economic activity.
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Socio-economic issues of territories in the focus of attention of researchers in Vologda
Статья научная
Market transformation in Russia’s economy at the end of the 20th century was accompanied by the increase in the autonomy of its territories, and the establishment of the institute of local government. As a result of the separation of powers and responsibilities the local government has become responsible for strategically important and socially significant functions of the state such as preschool, primary, basic and secondary (complete) general education, physical education, social policy, organization of provision of housing and utilities services to the population. However, local government in Russia is in the process of formation, and only few municipalities are able to perform all their functions due to limited budgetary resources. Therefore there are a lot of problems in the socio-economic development of territories that need solving and that require scientific and methodological support as well. The paper describes the main stages of formation and development of scientific objectives with regard to the issues of socio-economic development of territories at the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of RAS. The author emphasizes that the scope of the research depends to a large extent on the needs of the local government.
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Статья научная
In this work, we show the formation and development of socio-economic studies in the northern periphery. The authors reflect the role of economic science and regional management in the development of territories with difficult natural conditions. During the time of capitalist colonization, socialist planned economy, revolutionary reform and the formation of market relations, scientific recommendations, regarding the forms of organizing production and improving the economic mechanism by the authorities, as a rule, were not received properly and on time. Nevertheless, as shown in the article, all scientific concepts and theories, despite a delay, somehow influenced (and are influencing) vital activity of the population of distant regions, but especially it influences the theory of initial capital accumulation, socialist accumulation, mobilization economy, regional organization of productive forces, economic federalism, a variety of forms of ownership and mixed economy, territorial management. Science forms the theoretical basis for objectively determined social transformations, which serves as a reference point for the accelerated development of productive forces and the growth of people's well-being. However, political activity often ends up in completely opposite positions, preferring to break existing economic relations to the detriment of public interests. On the other hand, the very socio-economic reality and various circumstances of life suggest the need to introduce new theoretical propositions into science, corresponding to the cyclical nature of the market economy, the diversity of its forms, and extreme political and economic situations. At the same time, the experience of the formation of economic
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Socio-economic transformation of Russian society
Статья научная
There are radical changes in Russia, which cover all the aspects of public life. They cause problems in the society and provoke conflicts in various spheres of public life. The key moment that raises tension in the society is a population living standard. In the political system there is a transformation of property institution, public living conditions and socio-political structure of the society. These changes have entailed the evolution of population mentality. The analysis and management of transformation process in all the systems allows to reduce social tension.
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Socio-economic vulnerability of regional communities: sociological interpretation and assessment
Статья научная
The relevance of the study of the socio-economic vulnerability of Russian regions is due to the need to reveal their internal characteristics, indicating unresolved and emerging social problems that weaken the possibilities of regions functioning and productive dynamics. The aim of the work is to clarify the concept of socio-economic vulnerability of the regional community; to define the possibilities of its sociological measurement based on a combination of objective and subjective data; to identify significant characteristics of vulnerability of region socio-economic sphere in contemporary conditions by the example of the regions of the Central Chernozem region. The originality of its formulation and solution is associated with the interpretation of the this phenomenon through the prism of key social problems manifested in objective characteristics and subjective assessments of the population, the promotion of a methodic approach to its sociological diagnosis based on rethinking the heuristic capabilities of the methodic tools of the interregional scientific program, the assessment of important parameters of socio economic vulnerability of the Central Chernozem regions. The empirical object of research is the Central Chernozem regions of Russia - the Voronezh, Kursk and Lipetsk oblasts. The informational basis of research is the data of state statistics (Rosstat); the empirical base is the results of representative survey (N=1200 people) based on the typical program and methodic tools “Socio-cultural portrait of the Russian region”. The paper clarifies the concept of socio-economic vulnerability of regional community, understood as its condition due to the internal characteristics of the socio-economic sphere, concentrating social problems of an objective-subjective nature. It defines the possibilities of its diagnosis based on a combination of measuring objective facts and subjective assessments on a number of indicators of the typical methodic. It reveals the key vulnerabilities of the socio-economic sphere of the central chernozem regions in contemporary conditions: the prevalence of poverty and a high degree of socio-economic differentiation of the population in a subjective measurement; the downward short-term dynamics of the material status of a population significant part. The results expand the scientific understanding of the socio-economic vulnerability of regional communities and can be used to define their social problems of objective and subjective nature and to find ways to solve them.
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Sociological analysis of human capital factors and resources
Статья научная
The relevance of the study is due to the lack of a single position in the scientific, state, and public discourse on the accumulation, development, and implementation of human capital. The article deals with the theoretical concepts of human and social capital, its main components; it presents the results of studying the dynamics and structure of socio-economic well-being and human capital resources. The sociological analysis is carried out by measuring social well-being of the population (the case of the Tyumen Oblast), namely its key components: the degree of life satisfaction, social optimism and protection from the main social dangers, generalized trust and trust in institutions. The authors have considered human capital resources through self-assessments of health, material well-being, health, education, status, and work motivation. As an empirical base, we used data from monitoring studies (2006-2019) conducted within the framework of the all-Russian project “Socio-Cultural Portraits of the Russian Regions”. We used the index method, correlation method, factor and variance analysis in the study. The results obtained made it possible to give a general assessment of the processes of human capital resources development, to identify the contradictions in the public consciousness, to determine the relationship between human capital resources and social capital. In particular, the research showed that social capital is associated with the citizens’ feeling protection from the main problems and dangers, and it has a weak but statistically stable connection with the components of social and material well-being. The authors note that life satisfaction, social optimism, self-esteem of protection from problems and dangers and trust in institutions increase with the growth of family’s material security. Achievement motivation, which is a necessary condition for the development of human capital resources, is currently not related to the status of a respondent, his or her material wealth and social capital.
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Статья научная
The article describes the capabilities of sociological analysis of condition and results of social interaction between law enforcement bodies, population, and civil society institutions; it also sets out the tasks to be solved in the course of such analysis at the regional level (case study of the Republic of Bashkortostan).
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Sociological aspects of rotational employment in the northern territories of Western Siberia
Статья научная
The article describes features of the lifestyle associated with rotational employment system in developing oil and gas resources of Northwestern Siberia. It shows the change in conceptual approaches to the organization of commuting, the dynamics of key parameters, the socio-cultural features of mobile and multilocal lifestyle of commuters. The consideration of the rotational method as complex and significant for the implementation of the tasks set for the Arctic and subarctic areas of Russia has allowed to reveal the interaction system of basic elements of commuting and offer more efficient tools and technologies as compared to traditional management. The author presents some results of the sociological research in the oil and gas companies located in Northwestern Siberia. The work discloses the factors of negative impact of commuting on health, physical and social well-being of people leading “double” and mobile lives. They are the following: need for long stay in closed space with strangers, differences in natural conditions of places of residence and work (pressure drops, oxygen deficiency in the North, light aperiodicity, food and water quality, cold and mosquitoes, separation from family, etc.), increased physical and emotional stress...
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Sociological assessment of public administration efficiency
Статья научная
The article presents the evolution of sociology in Russia and substantiates the increasing importance of sociological science in the country's transition to innovation development. Special attention is paid to the methodological and practical aspects of regional sociological assessments that has been carried out by ISEDT RAS in the Vologda Oblast for almost twenty years. The authors prove that sociological tools allow them to make a system assessment of the effectiveness of state management, to define the main directions of economic and social development in the country and its regions. The article points out key problems, the solution of which will enhance the role of sociological knowledge in the development of the Russian society.
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Статья научная
The relevance of the research is due to the fact that the phenomenon of reintegration of migrants returning from Russia to Kyrgyzstan has not been sufficiently studied. Little research has been done on the problems migrants face when reintegrating into the society of their country of origin; such problems include, for example, economic and social situation, the socio-psychological well-being ofmigrants and the level of reintegration. The aim of the study is sociological assessment of the sustainability of reintegration of migrants returning from Russia to Kyrgyzstan. Scientific novelty consists in the concretization of the term “reintegration” as a multidimensional process that allows migrants to restore the economic, social and psychosocial relationships necessary to move forward in life; and the term “sustainable reintegration”, as the returnees achieve a certain level of economic self-sufficiency, social stability and psychosocial weh-being; in the development of empirical indicators of sustainable reintegration, such as the ability of a returned migrant to provide for themselves and their family, participate in economic activities, housing, build strong social relationships and be involved in the local community, psychological well-being, the ability to use basic services, and the absence of migration plans after return. We provide a sociological assessment of the sustainability of reintegration of migrants returning from Russia to Kyrgyzstan, based on the results of a questionnaire survey of 515 return migrants, and focus group interviews with 37 return migrants in Kyrgyzstan in October - November 2022. It has been revealed that the reintegration of return migrants from Russia to Kyrgyzstan is quite sustainable in all spheres: economic, social and sociopsychological. At the same time, the returnees have certain problems reflected in the insufficiently high level ofjustification of expectations from the return and in possible intentions to migrate again to Russia or other countries.
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Sociological research in the Soviet period in the Republic of Bashkortostan
Статья научная
The article reveals the process of institutionalization of sociological research in the Soviet period in the Republic of Bashkortostan, in particular, the scientific contribution of the first researchers - professors F.B. Sadykov and N.A. Aitov.
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Статья научная
The paper examines development specifics of sovereign bond markets in the CIS countries. The sample includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan, since only these countries, among the CIS members, possess enough sovereign bonds included in the global debt market. The relevance of the study is due to the increasing financial uncertainty, which attracts attention to relatively reliable means of public debt; the need to understand the functioning of debt markets against the background of antiRussian sanctions and the increasing influence of the State. The aim of the work is to empirically verify the connectivity, integration and predictability of the sovereign bond markets of Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. Empirical data include daily refinancing rates of national central banks, indices of total sovereign bond yields, G-spreads of international bonds of the countries in relation to the conditionally risk-free US bond yield curve for 2019-2023. The effects of market development features are divided into local, regional and global, such as the reaction to COVID-19 and anti-Russian sanctions after 2022. We use the following methods: dynamics analysis, correlation, factor and regression analysis. The novelty of the research lies in introducing new empirical data into scientific discourse, testing a methodology that allows us to assess the interaction of monetary policies and the functioning of sovereign bond markets, common features and differences in the behavior of these markets before and after the imposition of sanctions against the Russian financial system. We conclude that the integration of the considered markets within the CIS is violated, which poses risks to the effective economic development of the region. We consider the relatively developed and integrated, but poorly predictable markets of Russia and Kazakhstan. Unlike Russia, Kazakhstan has more connectivity regarding its monetary policy, sovereign bond yields and risks. The yield of Azerbaijan’s sovereign bonds is influenced by a more developed market of Kazakhstan, especially in terms of risk assessment, but the market itself is developed poorly. Uzbekistan’s market is even less integrated and developed.
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Статья научная
The results of the 58th US presidential election held November 8th, 2016 turned out a big surprise for many people. Numerous public opinion polls in the USA on political loyalty conducted by various researchers from July to October, 2016, demonstrated a steady trend of an electoral advantage of the Democratic Party's nominee (H. Clinton). However, during election (November 8th, 2016) the Republican Party's nominee D. Trump won with 306 electoral votes against 232. Why did this happen? Experts, political analysts have different explanations of this choice of American voters. In this article, the author makes an attempt to conduct a simple statistical analysis of the results of American electorate political preferences using basic socio-economic categories such as “quality of life”, “gross domestic product”, “employment” and “crime”. The hypothesis accepted as the basis for the author's arguments implies that the voters' political preferences greatly depend on the actual quality of people's lives, which is highly differentiated in the US states...
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Spatial and territorial development of the European North: trends and priorities of transformation
Статья научная
One of the key goals in the development of Russia, the largest country in the world, is the necessity to provide optimal and efficient usage of its huge territories. However, transformational market changes, which happened after the collapse of the USSR in the 1990s, led to a sharp decrease in the state's role in the governance of spatial development. This policy had extremely negative economic and social implications: settlement contrast increased due to the production and population's retraction into areas of concentration. Simultaneous “washing” of population out from deep regions also took place. At the same time, these problems are especially relevant for Russia's northern territories, which are characterized by focal settlement, production's placement, and for other territories, which experienced negative consequences of market transition. These factors justify the relevance of this research. The goal of the paper is to study the features and substantiate priority areas of perfecting governance of Russian European North (REN) regions' spatial territorial development. Theoretical and methodological approaches toward understanding the essence of economic space and its development, the analysis of key trends and specifics of Russian European North's spatial development in the post-soviet period were studied. Also, we prove that economic space of REN is currently linear-nodular with significant areas of economic periphery. The article shows the role of first- and second-class nods in preserving supporting carcass of territories of Russian European North. Also, it is shown that such settlement systems might be a basis for formation and development of polycentric model of region's space organization. This model is aimed at the revival and development of sustainable socio-economic and technological connections through the system “large city-small town-village”.
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Spatial aspects of electric power industry development in Russia's European North
Статья научная
The article deals with the Karelian-Kola and Dvina-Pechora parts of the electric power system located in Russia’s European North (REN) as the structures of trans-regional level. A comparative system analysis of these objects revealed their common and distinctive features, and the problems of their spatial organization. As a result, important factors of enhancing integration ties have been determined. Besides, the article highlights the main directions of spatial development of REN power supply system.
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Spatial aspects of the region's of population socio-economic differentiation
Статья научная
The article makes a comparative assessment of living standard of urban and rural population of the Vologda region in 2000 - 2008. The following indicators are used for this: volume and structure of income and expenditures, the consumption of food, housing, property security, services consumption. The study was based on statistical information and the results of sociological research.
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Spatial behavior of prices in the Russian Federation in 2003-2012
Статья научная
The heterogeneity of economic development and specifics of the spatial position of regions implies that the regional markets in the country are characterized by varying degrees and trends of price dynamics. The multidirectional and disproportionate changes in the prices in the regional markets, in turn, show that integration in the national market is poor. The work presents the results of research into the spatial behavior of prices in the Russian Federation in 2003-2012, carried out mainly using the descriptive analysis of consumer prices based on the identification of the measures of dispersion of price indicators - standard deviation and the range of variation. The analysis of consumer price indices dynamics shows that the year 2008 is a period of greatest price growth, and also proves that the prices for services and foodstuffs are subject to the highest fluctuations. The analysis of the prices for the fixed set of goods and services shows that consumer prices in the Russian Federation subjects during the analyzed period changed unevenly; however, beginning from 2009 there is a positive trend of reducing fluctuations in their growth rates...
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