Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1692
Socio-economic indicators of Russia’s national development goals: trends and forecast
Статья научная
The article presents the findings of a research on the achievability of a number of socio-economic indicators that are stated in the national development goals of Russia for the period up to 2030. The aim of the work is to analyze the possibility of achieving the indicators reflected in Russia’s national development goals by individual federal districts based on forecasting and creating an appropriate rating. The study includes three stages: first, to analyze available statistical data and select indicators for analysis; second, to build three forecast scenarios (pessimistic, neutral, optimistic); third, to visualize the results obtained and design a rating of federal districts according to the achievability of the declared parameters of development goals. Information base includes Rosstat data (statistical collections “Regions of Russia. Socio-economic indicators” for 2020-2023), as well as monitoring indicators of the minimum wage for the period from 2013 to 2024. We arrange federal districts in three groups: with a high level of achievability of indicators of national development goals (Central Federal District, North Caucasus Federal District), with a medium level (Northwestern Federal District, Southern Federal District, Ural Federal District, Volga Federal District) and with a low level (Siberian Federal District, Far Eastern Federal District). According to the forecast and the generalized rating, by 2030 none of the federal districts will be able to fully achieve the required level of the indicators under consideration. The uniqueness and novelty of the results we have obtained are due to the possibility of comparing the achievability of indicators in different time intervals and the declared values of Russia’s national development goals. The proposed rating can be vertically and horizontally scaled by expanding the number of analyzed indicators. The technique we propose and the results we have obtained can be used by representatives of all levels of legislative and executive authorities when assessing the declared socio-economic parameters of national development goals, including the implementation of other national projects, as well as by a wide range of scientists and researchers engaged in forecasting and modeling at the macro, meso and micro levels.
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Статья научная
The article is devoted to the problem of interregional differences in the economic area of the Russian Federation. The research covers a long period (from 1990 to 2020), since this period saw significant changes in the economic, institutional and political structure of the country. The assessment of the level of differences of regions is based on the main socio-economic indicators, data on which are formed in the system of state regional statistics. The Theil index was used as the basic method for measuring inequality. This made it possible to assess the dynamics of the spatial localization of economic activity in terms of the main socio-economic indicators, as well as form the groundwork for continuing the research - assessing its intragroup and intergroup components in the sectoral aspect. For a structural analysis of the problem of regional differences, we propose our own algorithm that allows us to form a discrete variation series and calculate the integral decile coefficient. The numerical implementation of the proposed algorithm made it possible to compile a multidimensional classification of regions according to the level of their economic activity and calculate the decile coefficient on this basis; the decile coefficient integrates the totality of the main socio-economic indicators adopted for the research. The results of the research show the long-term dynamics of the growth of differences and its significant level in comparison with the pre-reform period. A numerical assessment of the measure of differences, measured using the integral decile coefficient for a set of basic economic indicators of the regions, has been compiled. On this basis, it was found that in the long term (1995-2020) the level of economic differences of the regions increased from 2.4 to 5.6 times. A classification of regions according to the level of economic activity has been compiled, which reflects the nature of the differences of the regions of the Russian Federation, as well as the geography of the location of centers of concentration of economic activity.
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Socio-economic issues of territories in the focus of attention of researchers in Vologda
Статья научная
Market transformation in Russia’s economy at the end of the 20th century was accompanied by the increase in the autonomy of its territories, and the establishment of the institute of local government. As a result of the separation of powers and responsibilities the local government has become responsible for strategically important and socially significant functions of the state such as preschool, primary, basic and secondary (complete) general education, physical education, social policy, organization of provision of housing and utilities services to the population. However, local government in Russia is in the process of formation, and only few municipalities are able to perform all their functions due to limited budgetary resources. Therefore there are a lot of problems in the socio-economic development of territories that need solving and that require scientific and methodological support as well. The paper describes the main stages of formation and development of scientific objectives with regard to the issues of socio-economic development of territories at the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of RAS. The author emphasizes that the scope of the research depends to a large extent on the needs of the local government.
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Статья научная
The European North of Russia is considered as an economic region with specific characteristics of production and population settlement. A North European economy type with high natural resource potential, innovative geo- and biotechnologies, telecommunication systems and forms of organization of territorial communities of people adapted to difficult climatic conditions is being formed here. The socio-geographical aspect of the development of this economy type is manifested in the interests of the indigenous population to preserve and modernize the historically reclaimed areas of land. This involves overcoming obstacles in rational land use and forest management, reviving existence near rivers, lakes and sea gulfs, and strengthening territorial “center - periphery” ties. The choice of strategic directions for the development of the European North of Russia is significantly influenced by external conditions. They update topics related to the reaction to the world order transformation, the North Russian identity, the contact zone formation for the continental and maritime economies, food security, and the protection of Russia's Arctic interests from foreign interference threats. The issues of studying the European North of Russia are becoming more complex and require a purposeful scientific explanation, the creation of scientific and technological foundations of territorial management
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Статья научная
In this work, we show the formation and development of socio-economic studies in the northern periphery. The authors reflect the role of economic science and regional management in the development of territories with difficult natural conditions. During the time of capitalist colonization, socialist planned economy, revolutionary reform and the formation of market relations, scientific recommendations, regarding the forms of organizing production and improving the economic mechanism by the authorities, as a rule, were not received properly and on time. Nevertheless, as shown in the article, all scientific concepts and theories, despite a delay, somehow influenced (and are influencing) vital activity of the population of distant regions, but especially it influences the theory of initial capital accumulation, socialist accumulation, mobilization economy, regional organization of productive forces, economic federalism, a variety of forms of ownership and mixed economy, territorial management. Science forms the theoretical basis for objectively determined social transformations, which serves as a reference point for the accelerated development of productive forces and the growth of people's well-being. However, political activity often ends up in completely opposite positions, preferring to break existing economic relations to the detriment of public interests. On the other hand, the very socio-economic reality and various circumstances of life suggest the need to introduce new theoretical propositions into science, corresponding to the cyclical nature of the market economy, the diversity of its forms, and extreme political and economic situations. At the same time, the experience of the formation of economic
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Socio-economic transformation of Russian society
Статья научная
There are radical changes in Russia, which cover all the aspects of public life. They cause problems in the society and provoke conflicts in various spheres of public life. The key moment that raises tension in the society is a population living standard. In the political system there is a transformation of property institution, public living conditions and socio-political structure of the society. These changes have entailed the evolution of population mentality. The analysis and management of transformation process in all the systems allows to reduce social tension.
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Socio-economic vulnerability of regional communities: sociological interpretation and assessment
Статья научная
The relevance of the study of the socio-economic vulnerability of Russian regions is due to the need to reveal their internal characteristics, indicating unresolved and emerging social problems that weaken the possibilities of regions functioning and productive dynamics. The aim of the work is to clarify the concept of socio-economic vulnerability of the regional community; to define the possibilities of its sociological measurement based on a combination of objective and subjective data; to identify significant characteristics of vulnerability of region socio-economic sphere in contemporary conditions by the example of the regions of the Central Chernozem region. The originality of its formulation and solution is associated with the interpretation of the this phenomenon through the prism of key social problems manifested in objective characteristics and subjective assessments of the population, the promotion of a methodic approach to its sociological diagnosis based on rethinking the heuristic capabilities of the methodic tools of the interregional scientific program, the assessment of important parameters of socio economic vulnerability of the Central Chernozem regions. The empirical object of research is the Central Chernozem regions of Russia - the Voronezh, Kursk and Lipetsk oblasts. The informational basis of research is the data of state statistics (Rosstat); the empirical base is the results of representative survey (N=1200 people) based on the typical program and methodic tools “Socio-cultural portrait of the Russian region”. The paper clarifies the concept of socio-economic vulnerability of regional community, understood as its condition due to the internal characteristics of the socio-economic sphere, concentrating social problems of an objective-subjective nature. It defines the possibilities of its diagnosis based on a combination of measuring objective facts and subjective assessments on a number of indicators of the typical methodic. It reveals the key vulnerabilities of the socio-economic sphere of the central chernozem regions in contemporary conditions: the prevalence of poverty and a high degree of socio-economic differentiation of the population in a subjective measurement; the downward short-term dynamics of the material status of a population significant part. The results expand the scientific understanding of the socio-economic vulnerability of regional communities and can be used to define their social problems of objective and subjective nature and to find ways to solve them.
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Socio-political Stability of Russian Society as a Criterion of the Legitimacy of the State
Статья научная
The paper uses the database of the all-Russian sociological monitoring “How are you, Russia?” to analyze the dynamics of socio-political stability of Russian society as a criterion and indicator of the legitimacy publicly expressed by citizens to the State, creating conditions for decent life in the present and future. By analyzing theoretical foundations of stability, we show the dialectical nature of sociopolitical stability, its predetermination by the nature of the social structure, distributive relations and the implementation of the principles of social justice in society. Based on the analysis of empirical information, we show the alienation of the majority of Russian citizens from the neoliberal government model, an expressed preference for choosing a socially oriented type of government, which leads to the people's demand for administrative socio-political management. The dynamics of satisfaction with the political system, the assessment by the population of the State's fulfillment of social, including constitutional guarantees, prove a high degree of stability of Russian society; however, this stability is based on only four factors: ethno-territorial; defense (trust in the Army); complete trust in the RF President (Vladimir Putin); social support of the population by the State, provided for in the Constitution. The factor analysis reveals the importance of various groups of contradictions in Russian society (economic, ethno-religious, class-related) that affect socio-political stability. We identify the sustainability risk zones associated with a low level of institutional trust in most government institutions and civil society structures. Based on the findings of the study, we put forward recommendations to strengthen the socio-political stability of Russian society and the State.
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Sociological analysis of human capital factors and resources
Статья научная
The relevance of the study is due to the lack of a single position in the scientific, state, and public discourse on the accumulation, development, and implementation of human capital. The article deals with the theoretical concepts of human and social capital, its main components; it presents the results of studying the dynamics and structure of socio-economic well-being and human capital resources. The sociological analysis is carried out by measuring social well-being of the population (the case of the Tyumen Oblast), namely its key components: the degree of life satisfaction, social optimism and protection from the main social dangers, generalized trust and trust in institutions. The authors have considered human capital resources through self-assessments of health, material well-being, health, education, status, and work motivation. As an empirical base, we used data from monitoring studies (2006-2019) conducted within the framework of the all-Russian project “Socio-Cultural Portraits of the Russian Regions”. We used the index method, correlation method, factor and variance analysis in the study. The results obtained made it possible to give a general assessment of the processes of human capital resources development, to identify the contradictions in the public consciousness, to determine the relationship between human capital resources and social capital. In particular, the research showed that social capital is associated with the citizens’ feeling protection from the main problems and dangers, and it has a weak but statistically stable connection with the components of social and material well-being. The authors note that life satisfaction, social optimism, self-esteem of protection from problems and dangers and trust in institutions increase with the growth of family’s material security. Achievement motivation, which is a necessary condition for the development of human capital resources, is currently not related to the status of a respondent, his or her material wealth and social capital.
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Статья научная
The article describes the capabilities of sociological analysis of condition and results of social interaction between law enforcement bodies, population, and civil society institutions; it also sets out the tasks to be solved in the course of such analysis at the regional level (case study of the Republic of Bashkortostan).
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Sociological aspects of rotational employment in the northern territories of Western Siberia
Статья научная
The article describes features of the lifestyle associated with rotational employment system in developing oil and gas resources of Northwestern Siberia. It shows the change in conceptual approaches to the organization of commuting, the dynamics of key parameters, the socio-cultural features of mobile and multilocal lifestyle of commuters. The consideration of the rotational method as complex and significant for the implementation of the tasks set for the Arctic and subarctic areas of Russia has allowed to reveal the interaction system of basic elements of commuting and offer more efficient tools and technologies as compared to traditional management. The author presents some results of the sociological research in the oil and gas companies located in Northwestern Siberia. The work discloses the factors of negative impact of commuting on health, physical and social well-being of people leading “double” and mobile lives. They are the following: need for long stay in closed space with strangers, differences in natural conditions of places of residence and work (pressure drops, oxygen deficiency in the North, light aperiodicity, food and water quality, cold and mosquitoes, separation from family, etc.), increased physical and emotional stress...
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Sociological assessment of public administration efficiency
Статья научная
The article presents the evolution of sociology in Russia and substantiates the increasing importance of sociological science in the country's transition to innovation development. Special attention is paid to the methodological and practical aspects of regional sociological assessments that has been carried out by ISEDT RAS in the Vologda Oblast for almost twenty years. The authors prove that sociological tools allow them to make a system assessment of the effectiveness of state management, to define the main directions of economic and social development in the country and its regions. The article points out key problems, the solution of which will enhance the role of sociological knowledge in the development of the Russian society.
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Статья научная
The relevance of the research is due to the fact that the phenomenon of reintegration of migrants returning from Russia to Kyrgyzstan has not been sufficiently studied. Little research has been done on the problems migrants face when reintegrating into the society of their country of origin; such problems include, for example, economic and social situation, the socio-psychological well-being ofmigrants and the level of reintegration. The aim of the study is sociological assessment of the sustainability of reintegration of migrants returning from Russia to Kyrgyzstan. Scientific novelty consists in the concretization of the term “reintegration” as a multidimensional process that allows migrants to restore the economic, social and psychosocial relationships necessary to move forward in life; and the term “sustainable reintegration”, as the returnees achieve a certain level of economic self-sufficiency, social stability and psychosocial weh-being; in the development of empirical indicators of sustainable reintegration, such as the ability of a returned migrant to provide for themselves and their family, participate in economic activities, housing, build strong social relationships and be involved in the local community, psychological well-being, the ability to use basic services, and the absence of migration plans after return. We provide a sociological assessment of the sustainability of reintegration of migrants returning from Russia to Kyrgyzstan, based on the results of a questionnaire survey of 515 return migrants, and focus group interviews with 37 return migrants in Kyrgyzstan in October - November 2022. It has been revealed that the reintegration of return migrants from Russia to Kyrgyzstan is quite sustainable in all spheres: economic, social and sociopsychological. At the same time, the returnees have certain problems reflected in the insufficiently high level ofjustification of expectations from the return and in possible intentions to migrate again to Russia or other countries.
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Sociological research in the Soviet period in the Republic of Bashkortostan
Статья научная
The article reveals the process of institutionalization of sociological research in the Soviet period in the Republic of Bashkortostan, in particular, the scientific contribution of the first researchers - professors F.B. Sadykov and N.A. Aitov.
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Статья научная
The paper examines development specifics of sovereign bond markets in the CIS countries. The sample includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan, since only these countries, among the CIS members, possess enough sovereign bonds included in the global debt market. The relevance of the study is due to the increasing financial uncertainty, which attracts attention to relatively reliable means of public debt; the need to understand the functioning of debt markets against the background of antiRussian sanctions and the increasing influence of the State. The aim of the work is to empirically verify the connectivity, integration and predictability of the sovereign bond markets of Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan. Empirical data include daily refinancing rates of national central banks, indices of total sovereign bond yields, G-spreads of international bonds of the countries in relation to the conditionally risk-free US bond yield curve for 2019-2023. The effects of market development features are divided into local, regional and global, such as the reaction to COVID-19 and anti-Russian sanctions after 2022. We use the following methods: dynamics analysis, correlation, factor and regression analysis. The novelty of the research lies in introducing new empirical data into scientific discourse, testing a methodology that allows us to assess the interaction of monetary policies and the functioning of sovereign bond markets, common features and differences in the behavior of these markets before and after the imposition of sanctions against the Russian financial system. We conclude that the integration of the considered markets within the CIS is violated, which poses risks to the effective economic development of the region. We consider the relatively developed and integrated, but poorly predictable markets of Russia and Kazakhstan. Unlike Russia, Kazakhstan has more connectivity regarding its monetary policy, sovereign bond yields and risks. The yield of Azerbaijan’s sovereign bonds is influenced by a more developed market of Kazakhstan, especially in terms of risk assessment, but the market itself is developed poorly. Uzbekistan’s market is even less integrated and developed.
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Статья научная
The results of the 58th US presidential election held November 8th, 2016 turned out a big surprise for many people. Numerous public opinion polls in the USA on political loyalty conducted by various researchers from July to October, 2016, demonstrated a steady trend of an electoral advantage of the Democratic Party's nominee (H. Clinton). However, during election (November 8th, 2016) the Republican Party's nominee D. Trump won with 306 electoral votes against 232. Why did this happen? Experts, political analysts have different explanations of this choice of American voters. In this article, the author makes an attempt to conduct a simple statistical analysis of the results of American electorate political preferences using basic socio-economic categories such as “quality of life”, “gross domestic product”, “employment” and “crime”. The hypothesis accepted as the basis for the author's arguments implies that the voters' political preferences greatly depend on the actual quality of people's lives, which is highly differentiated in the US states...
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Spatial and territorial development of the European North: trends and priorities of transformation
Статья научная
One of the key goals in the development of Russia, the largest country in the world, is the necessity to provide optimal and efficient usage of its huge territories. However, transformational market changes, which happened after the collapse of the USSR in the 1990s, led to a sharp decrease in the state's role in the governance of spatial development. This policy had extremely negative economic and social implications: settlement contrast increased due to the production and population's retraction into areas of concentration. Simultaneous “washing” of population out from deep regions also took place. At the same time, these problems are especially relevant for Russia's northern territories, which are characterized by focal settlement, production's placement, and for other territories, which experienced negative consequences of market transition. These factors justify the relevance of this research. The goal of the paper is to study the features and substantiate priority areas of perfecting governance of Russian European North (REN) regions' spatial territorial development. Theoretical and methodological approaches toward understanding the essence of economic space and its development, the analysis of key trends and specifics of Russian European North's spatial development in the post-soviet period were studied. Also, we prove that economic space of REN is currently linear-nodular with significant areas of economic periphery. The article shows the role of first- and second-class nods in preserving supporting carcass of territories of Russian European North. Also, it is shown that such settlement systems might be a basis for formation and development of polycentric model of region's space organization. This model is aimed at the revival and development of sustainable socio-economic and technological connections through the system “large city-small town-village”.
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Spatial aspects in the development of the small business sector in the region
Статья научная
Using the example of the small business sector, the paper analyzes the specifics of an emerging system for managing the spatial development of the economy in one of the regions of the Russian Federation. This aspect is currently regulated by a whole range of documents at the federal and regional levels, and its features include fragmentation, both vertically and horizontally. Currently, only separate blocks of spatial management processes are identified, which are partially interconnected. The described tasks are regulated by various documents: laws of constituent entities of the Federation, target programs, strategies and concepts for spatial or agglomeration development. The federal level has the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 with a forecast up to 2036, which takes into account negative reviews of the previous document. The regional level has no unified approach to the development and implementation of spatial development documents as well. In order to substantiate the possibilities for improving strategic management in the spatial development of regions, we solved the following tasks: updating the approach to the consideration of the regional economic space; substantiating individual structural elements of the regional economic space - agglomerations and subregions - as objects of management; substantiating the possibilities of a strategic approach to managing the spatial development of the region's economy; analyzing best practices of sub-regional management in the regions; and substantiating practical recommendations to authorities on improving the regional management system at the sub-regional level
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Spatial aspects of electric power industry development in Russia's European North
Статья научная
The article deals with the Karelian-Kola and Dvina-Pechora parts of the electric power system located in Russia’s European North (REN) as the structures of trans-regional level. A comparative system analysis of these objects revealed their common and distinctive features, and the problems of their spatial organization. As a result, important factors of enhancing integration ties have been determined. Besides, the article highlights the main directions of spatial development of REN power supply system.
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Spatial aspects of the region's of population socio-economic differentiation
Статья научная
The article makes a comparative assessment of living standard of urban and rural population of the Vologda region in 2000 - 2008. The following indicators are used for this: volume and structure of income and expenditures, the consumption of food, housing, property security, services consumption. The study was based on statistical information and the results of sociological research.
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