Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1587
Territorial planning and Zipf's law
Статья научная
Territorial planning is an integral part of strategic planning in accordance with the current legislation of the Russian Federation. When development strategies are elaborated, the assessment of the socio-economic situation in the region should be based on the results obtained in the course of studying the current situation in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation in comparison with its border territorial entities, as well as in comparison with indicators in the macroregion (federal district). SWOT analysis is the most common technology for assessing the situation in a region. Due to various reasons the use of this method does not provide high accuracy of the result. The use of the Zipf distribution (inversely proportional dependence) as a reference provides an opportunity for a more accurate quantitative analysis of the dynamics of indicators used to assess the socio-economic situation in territorial entities. The goal of the paper is to determine current external conditions, trends and imbalances in the socio-economic situation in a region with the use of Zipf's law. In contrast to the traditional use of the law in the study of demographic indicators, our paper aims to consider the dynamics of changes in gross regional product and in the number of jobs. The results indicate that the distribution of the value added and the distribution of number of jobs tend to an inversely proportional function. The discussion of the results is presented in the form of a discussion on the impact of socio-economic situation on the formation of long-term development plans; the discussion takes into account the positions of constituent entities of the Russian Federation on the Zipf curve. In addition, we substantiate the possibility and necessity of using the gross regional product indicator in the conditions of the Russian Federation. Our conclusions show the advantage of using distributions to study the existing external environment in a constituent entity of the Russian Federation. Practical application of Zipf's law helps define the starting conditions and forecast the consequences of implementation of socio-economic development strategies more accurately and to substantiate quantitative indicators for long-term plans.
Бесплатно
Territorial public self-government as a development institution at the municipal level
Статья научная
Under the conditions of insufficient financial and economic independence of Russia’s municipalities, greater importance is attached to various forms of people’s self-organization created for the purpose of participating in municipal administration, in the implementation of projects and activities that ensure the achievement of strategic goals and objectives of territorial development with minimum cost. One such form is territorial public self-government (TPSG); but, despite its effectiveness, it is not widespread in Russian regions. This is due both to the passivity of the population and to the fact that the status of TPSG has not been established clearly in the system of local government. That is why it is very important to study the best practices of organization and functioning of TPSG and substantiate its role as a development institution at the municipal level. The present work uses the example of Vologda city and several RF subjects to show that TPSG can solve many local issues (in the sphere of social protection, improvement of territories, promotion of comfortable living, etc.)...
Бесплатно
Territories' predisposition assessment to “smart” companies' location
Статья научная
Currently, one of the urgent issues for the Russian economy is to create conditions for the expansion of “smart” companies in the regions on which depend the society transition to a new type of technological structure, innovative development and the country's competitiveness. The hypothesis of the study is that some regions are more predisposed to the appearance of “smart” companies on their territories, while others do not have the appropriate conditions for developing innovative and digital technologies. To prove this hypothesis, the article reveals the concept of a regional 3D model of a “smart” company and offers a methodology for assessing regions' predisposition to the emergence of such organizations. A special feature of the author's methodology is an integrated indicator which is the result of the synthesis of graphical and analytical evaluation methods. The methodology allows identifying territories with favorable conditions for expansion of organizational ambidextrity, innovative development and companies' digitalization. It was tested in Russia's regions in 2010-2017. As a result, the paper has identified the typology of regions according to five criteria reflecting the predisposition to the emergence of “smart” companies, and has built their rating. The approbation of the author's methodological developments allowed establishing that industrially developed regions can be considered digitalization poles. The work shows that the Ural Federal District acts as a stable basis for the emergence and successful functioning of “smart” companies, as all its entities, except the Kurgan Oblast, fall into the top twenty territories favorable for their development. This pattern is not typical for other federal districts. In conclusion, the authors have determined principal development trajectories of the main elements of the 3D model of a “smart” company at the meso-economic research level in the following areas: “smart” personnel, “smart” environment, “smart” innovations and solutions.
Бесплатно
The 2018-2019 regional election: voters’ trust in the authorities continues to decline
Статья научная
September 8 was a single voting day in Russia: 13 constituent entities of the Russian Federation elected deputies of state legislative bodies; 19 constituent entities elected their heads. This was one of the main events of 2019 for the domestic political life of Russia, because the results of the elections, in fact, reflect the socio-political agenda of today; they show people’s attitude toward the political and economic course implemented by the Russian government and serve as a criterion for assessing its effectiveness. The following materials provide an analysis of the electoral preferences of Russians, manifested in the level of support for the head of state and reflecting the interests of the ruling elites of the United Russia party; in the dynamics of voter turnout in Russia and in the number of votes cast for parliamentary parties representing the systemic opposition. To obtain an objective “picture” of today, we analyse the results of the previous elections (2017-2018), as well as the last three elections to the State Duma (2007, 2011, 2016) and the presidential elections in which Vladimir Putin took part (2000, 2004, 2012, 2018).
Бесплатно
Статья научная
National priorities in the development of Russian society in the field of demography are related to population reproduction, health preservation, decrease in working-age mortality, increase in life expectancy, etc., and also correlate strategically with the effective functioning of business. This brings to the fore the need to develop, implement and elaborate on corporate social policy in general and corporate demographic policy in particular. The aim of the study is to analyze social policy pursued by major Russian corporations (PAO Severstal, Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works PJSC, Gazprom Neft PJSC, PJSC Lukoil, JSC Russian Railways, PJSC PhosAgro, PJSC Acron) and substantiate the concept for corporate demographic policy of enterprises. We consider prerequisites for the establishment and implementation of corporate demographic policy in Russian society. We have found that at the present stage of its development, corporate social responsibility is most often reduced to cash payments and participation of enterprises in individual social projects. The article analyzes social policy practices that Russian companies are implementing and that are directly related to demographic issues (childcare allowances, employee benefits, health resort treatment, etc.). We look into the approaches to understanding corporate demographic policy and its effectiveness; we show the benefits of implementing corporate demographic policy at Russian enterprises. Such benefits include promotion of business reputation, reduction in social tension, participation of enterprises in addressing demographic development issues, etc. According to some studies, the introduction of corporate health promotion programs can reduce disability losses from a number of causes by almost 30%. The practical significance and scientific novelty of our research consists in the development of a concept for corporate demographic policy of Russian enterprises, definition of its targets, implementation mechanisms and substantiation of the expected results, which consist in enhancing the effectiveness of state demographic policy as a whole and improving the results of implementation of corporate programs.
Бесплатно
The EU's seventh framework programme: opportunities for Russian academic institutions
Статья научная
The article deals with the issues concerning the expansion of international cooperation in the sphere of innovation activity. The authors consider one of the main tools of its development - the EU’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7). The article presents the analysis of statistical information reflecting the degree of involvement of Russian organizations in the work on the projects in the subject area “Socio- Economic Sciences and Humanities” under FP7. The authors present the experience of participation of the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of RAS in the competitions under this program, including the project “Social Innovation: Driving Force of Social Change”. The article reveals the essence of social innovations, highlights their features, and gives their classification.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The French economy, while still recovering from the COVID-19 crisis, is currently dealing with special problems that have emerged due to the new geopolitical situation. Signs of weakness in the French economy at the beginning of the year may turn into an actual recession in 2023. The latest forecasts are particularly pessimistic in this regard. Since Russia has terminated its oil and gas deliveries after the sanctions imposed by the European Union, the French economy is at risk of serious inflation issues. Delivery interruptions can have significant negative consequences for France primarily due to their indirect impact resulting from the influence on its neighbor, Germany. The inflation that has hit the French economy and other economies of the European Unions is a kind of inflation caused by deficit rather than excessive demand. The French government, which spent considerable amount of money to protect people and businesses during the COVID-19 crisis, is faced with the need to provide significant assistance again. Both fiscal and monetary policy will be disrupted. A sharp increase in public debt is also expected. France has encountered an unprecedented economic situation, when the rules of a market economy seem powerless in the face of incoming problems. Economic planning, similar to the one that was used from 1946 to the end of the 1960s, probably represents the best opportunity for the French economy to adapt to the consequences of the new geopolitical situation.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
February 24, 2022, after the recognition of the independence of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic (February 22, 2022), Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the beginning of a special military operation on the territory of Ukraine. The head of state noted in his address to Russians that the purpose of the operation was “to protect people who, for eight years now, have been facing humiliation and genocide perpetrated by the Kiev regime. To this end, we will seek to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, as well as bring to trial those who perpetrated numerous bloody crimes against civilians, including against citizens of the Russian Federation”. The RF President’s decision announced the beginning of a new stage in Russia’s development in the 21st century and launched large-scale and irreversible changes concerning not only our country, but also the whole world. The global historical confrontation between Russia and the US-led NATO countries (between Russia and the Collective West) has entered an active phase, accompanied by a sharp aggravation of international political relations, sanctions policy, and armed clashes. We (relying, as usual, on expert opinions, official statistics and sociological surveys) express our own point of view on the events taking place in the world and in Russia, analyze their nature, causes, and implications.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
March 15-17, 2024, the presidential election will be held in Russia. The election will take place in a very specific context due to the ongoing special military operation, aggravating threats to national security posed by NATO countries, and a range of internal changes that Russia has been going through since the beginning of the special military operation. Against the background of the alarming situation around Russia, the RF President delivered his annual Address to the RF Federal Assembly on February 29, 2024; he presented a program of actions and specific public policy measures for the next six years (until 2030). The Address had certain aspects reminding of an election speech and was intended not only for government bodies at all levels of public authority, but also the broad strata of Russian society. In fact, the head of state outlined the contours of Russia’s future for the next political cycle, and this is important amid uncertainty and a high level of risks that the country is facing at the present historical moment (after the start of the SMO). The article presents our own approach to analyzing the current situation in the country (including the 2024 presidential election), based on our long-term monitoring of public administration effectiveness, the system-wide nature of which is determined by the comprehensiveness of the empirical base (analysis of national and regional statistics, including those of own compilation; sociological surveys, analysis of expert assessments and key decisions taken by the President and the RF Federal Assembly). Scientific novelty of the study lies in a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of public administration during Vladimir Putin’s first four presidential terms (2000-2024), that is, during the first quarter of the 21st century. In this context, we analyze general goals, objectives, and principles of public administration formulated by Vladimir Putin as he assumed office as president for the first time; key initiatives and decisions he adopted in order to address the tasks set; internal and external conditions in which the head of state had to achieve national development goals; key stages that the country went through over the past 23 years; and the main results with which it “approached” the beginning of a new political cycle.
Бесплатно
The Vologda region's economy in the period of Great Patriotic War
Статья научная
The article covers the organization of the regional industrial and agricultural functioning, shows the labor feat of Vologda’s inhabitant in wartime.
Бесплатно
The Vologda region: anti-crisis action program
Другой
We offer the Vice-Governor of Vologda Region Nikolai Kostygov's interview, in which he expresses his point of view on the anti-crisis measures taken by the local authorities.
Бесплатно
The Vologda region: prospects of territory's demographic development
Статья научная
The article considers the demographic situation in the Vologda region. Based on the results of variable demographic prognosis an analysis of its development prospects is made.
Бесплатно
The age factor in the digital divide: the edges of inequality
Статья научная
At the end of the 1990s - beginning of the 2000s, due to the spread of the Internet at an increasing rate in certain countries, while others were lagging behind, it became necessary to study the digital gap issues. At the present stage, when the existence of the digital divide in the world and individual states is obvious and proven, researchers have focused on studying its factors. The article aims to assess the influence of the age factor on the scale and prevalence of the digital divide within a three-level model. To do this, we consider theoretical and methodological approaches to studying the age factor of the digital divide; we analyze trends in the use of information and communication technologies by representatives of various age groups, and the inclusion of children, adolescents and the elderly in the digital environment. The model of three levels of the digital divide developed by modern scientists is used as a theoretical basis. According to the model, inequality manifests itself in access to technical means, differences in the digital literacy, and the benefits derived from digitalization. In the course of the work, we use a set of general scientific methods. We reveal significant differences in the practices of using personal computers and the Internet among representatives of different age groups and calculate the time periods necessary to reduce intergenerational gaps in Russia and the Vologda Oblast. We assess the impact of online habits on a person’s life, the purposes of using the Internet and the possibility of receiving bonuses from it, the availability of digital skills for various age groups of Vologda Oblast population. The scientific novelty of the study consists in assessing the influence of the age factor on the prevalence of digital gap parameters at the regional level. The results can be used for identifying the groups that are at risk of being excluded from the processes of digital development. The findings will be also useful in formulating the relevance of social retraining programs for the able-bodied population in accordance with the requirements of new jobs, in teaching older people digital skills, and in making managerial decisions for successful digital development.
Бесплатно
The agricultural sector of the Pechora-Ural North
Статья научная
The article reveals the rural sector’s role in food supply of the population of the Komi Republic arctic and subarctic territories (the Pechora-Ural North). It considers conditions, analyses resources, organizational-legal management forms in agricultural production. The study indicates the agriculture status in the pre-reform (1960-1980) and market upgrade periods (since 1992) and the reforms’ impact on socio-economic processes in the industry. The article investigates obstacles to the agricultural sector development. It proposes development directions of reindeer and cattle breeding. It recommends to accelerate the development and adoption of the law “On reindeer breeding in the Russian Federation”, a federal target program for the reindeer breeding development, and it also proposes to enhance inter-regional relations in the field of joint systems of pastures control. The research highlights the necessity to strengthen the material and technological base of the dual purpose cattle breeding, to increase financial support of traditional Northern branches.
Бесплатно
The anti-crisis component of regional management: composition and instruments
Статья научная
The article characterizes the composition of anti-crisis measures implemented by authorities of the Vologda region, and also usable instruments of their implementation. The main results of changes in the socio-economic situation of the region in 2009 are shown, lines of activity providing sustainable development of the region are formed.
Бесплатно
The assessment of the impact of the economy's development on air pollution
Статья научная
The economic growth has a negative impact on the environment, that is why the development of models, which would reveal the influence of different factors on the change of the environment, is necessary. In order to study environmental and economic processes, a new approach was proposed, and special models, which allow assessing the impact of the investment policy and environmental activities, were created. It gives an opportunity to link the change of the environment with approved management decisions. The purpose of the article is to identify reasons that cause transformations of the interconnection between economic and environmental indicators, to study the impact of the change of environmental legislation and other external shocks on environmental and economic processes in the Russian Federation and the European Union on the example of air environment. The relevance and significance of this work is determined by changes of environmental legislation in the Russian Federation, which is currently based on the best available technologies (BAT), and the need to build models that would allow predicting the development of environmental and economic processes in changing interconnections of indicators within the emerging practice of applying new legislation. The novelty of the research is the development of models, which allow analyzing the impact of external shocks on environmental and economic processes, on the basis of the proposed approach. Empirical analysis of data was carried out, and models of environmental and economic processes were constructed. It turned out that the change of EU legislation did not lead to a sharp transformation of existing interconnections between economic and environmental indicators, which were associated with economic crises. Crises may contribute to the emergence of a new trend or just bring the system out of balance for a few years, but later its development will again be described by equations similar to pre-crisis ones. The study also allowed us to explain the improvement of environmental indicators with the growth of Russian and EU economies. Its results may be used in the development of strategic documents for the development of regions and countries. Further studies are related to the assessment of various scenarios for the development of regions of the European North of the Russian Federation.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
In the article the comparative analysis of the basic parameters of the scientific and technical activity in the regions of the North-West federal district of the Russian Federation and in the Republic of Belarus is carried out.
Бесплатно
The belt and road: achievements and prospects (to the tenth anniversary of the initiative)
Статья научная
September 7, 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the Silk Road Economic Belt initiative in Astana (Kazakhstan), and October 3, 2013 the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road in Indonesia. The year 2023 marks the 10th anniversary of The Belt and Road Initiative, which has received positive feedback from many countries and international organizations. The Belt and Road strategy corresponds to the course of historical development and meets the expectations of all parties. The international community pays considerable attention to it. As of January 2023, China has signed more than 200 documents on cooperation with 151 countries and 32 international organizations. In ten years, The Belt and Road Initiative achieved fruitful results and brought tangible benefits to the population of the countries located along the route. Currently, cooperation within the framework of The Belt and Road project is facing the turbulence of the external environment, but its possibilities have not been exhausted. For citation: Lyu Hongying, Wang Chao (2023). The Belt and Road: Achievements and prospects (to the tenth anniversary of the Initiative). Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 16(5), 279-293. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2023.5.89.16 In the future, it will contribute to the development of international cooperation in more areas and at a deeper level, achieving mutual benefit. The article summarizes the achievements and experience of the construction of The Belt and Road for ten years, analyzes the problems and difficulties that have arisen, and also considers new opportunities and challenges in promoting high-quality development within the framework of The Belt and Road Initiative.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The article shows that the essential tools for managing the public and municipal finances are emerged from the organization of the budget process because this process permeates all areas of fiscal activity of public and municipal authorities. The author emphasizes that the changes in the economic, social and financial policy of the state at a particular stage of development of the country influence over the budget process. The author has focused attention on determining the place and the role of local budgets in the general system of the country's budget process. He considers some new methods in budget planning and forecasting.
Бесплатно
Статья научная
The possibility of application of a new Western paradigm as to the specially protected natural territories in the Extreme North of Russia is discussed in the article. It implies the combination of nature protection and neighborhood development. The author writes in brief about the new paradigm and the system of specially protected natural territories in the Murmansk Oblast. There are such problems of specially protected natural territories in the region as conflict of interest between different stakeholders, lack of support from the authorities and weak tourism infrastructure and competence in this sphere. However, the enthusiasm on the subject of local national parks and nature parks and a growing number of tourists allow us to suppose that the role of specially protected natural territories in the neighborhood development will be more significant in future.
Бесплатно
