Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1587
Статья научная
Changing structural proportions manifested in the narrowing of domestic demand for goods and services is a trend in modern development of the Russian economy, which experiences an impact of a system-wide economic crisis and the current foreign policy and foreign economic situation. This leads to underconsumption of goods and services, and thus to a reduction of incentives for enterprises to increase production. Meanwhile, stimulation of domestic consumer demand can be considered as a factor capable of ensuring economic growth. In this regard, there is a need for scientific substantiation of measures to promote domestic demand, which in the current economic conditions can change the structural relationships and thus ensure economic growth. In our study, an attempt is made to calculate the potential economic effect of stimulating Russian citizens' consumption of goods and services produced by domestic tourism sector. General scientific methods such as analysis, synthesis, comparison, generalization and original methodological tools based on input-output models are used as a methodological basis of the study...
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Branch analysis in the context of evolutionary development of economic systems
Статья научная
Upgrading of Russian economy claims special attention to long-term problems of its development in order to make it stable and purposeful. The necessity to improve social and economic parameters and comprehensive innovation development of territorial economic systems requires elaboration of sound policy and regions' strategies in relation to regional branches that form their potential. The article proposes an approach to reform national economic sectors on the basis of their life cycle analysis and allocation of functional features of a single mesoeconomic system. The research is aimed at selecting key parameters of sectors' development at the regional level. The evolutionary approach that serves as the basis for the methodology gives an opportunity to determine the factors that have the greatest impact on life cycle dynamics. The article singles out the following main groups of factors: resources, product, technology, market, banking sector, public policy. By analyzing life cycles of the Yaroslavl region's chemical industries (synthetic rubber and carbon black production) it is concluded that the only way to ensure sustainable development of branches lies in the continuous implementation of innovations, a process affected by cyclicity and determined by factors of exogenous and endogenous nature.
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Budget capacity in the system of capacities of the territory: theoretical issues
Статья научная
The paper considers theoretical and methodological aspects of budget capacity. Our goal is to determine the place and role of budget capacity in the system of capacities of the territory by studying the essence of this capacity. We define the concept of “capacity” and summarize the content of key elements of the system of territorial capacities. We analyze the evolution and modern interpretation of the term “budget capacity of the territory” on the basis of domestic and foreign works. We find out that so far there is no unique approach to the content of budget capacity in either domestic or foreign financial science. Scientific novelty of the paper is shown in the following: we carry out systematization and critical analysis of existing methodological approaches to the definition of budget capacity, consider the conceptual content of six main and optional approaches, and identify five key issues of the budget capacity methodology. First, many scientists, as well as Russian legislation, are investigating the problems of tax capacity alone...
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Budget crisis of the regions in 2013 - 2015: a threat to Russia's security
Статья научная
The article continues the series of publications on the issues of budgetary sufficiency of the territories. Judging by the main budget parameters, the 2013 - 2015 period will be a serious challenge to the strength of sub-national budget systems. In the conditions of an acute debt crisis, Russian regions have to take up the bulk of public obligations of the Russian Federation concerning the implementation of the President’s election programmes. Of special concern is the reduction of federal financial support, which creates additional risks for the territorial budgets burdened with loans. However, despite the gravity of the situation, there still exist the reserves for implementing the President’s assignments and stabilizing the country’s budgetary system. The main of them concern the necessity of conducting the state policy in the sphere of business capital exports.
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Budget provision of municipal entities in the Vologda region: state, problems and improvement ways
Статья научная
The article is a continuation of a series of studies on the problems of sustainable development of regional socio-economic systems. The main results of the analysis of the budgetary provision of municipal entities of the Vologda region in the period from 2004 to 2009 are presented. Factors affecting the state of the budgetary provision are identified; options to improve its level are shown.
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Статья научная
According to the Budget Code the budget process in the Russian Federation includes the following stages: drafting of a budget project; consideration and approval of the budget; budget execution; preparation of a report on the budget execution and its approval. The given stages are carried out in a strict sequence and are closely interlinked. The approved budget is in force during the budget period, which in the Russian Federation lasts 12 months from January 1 to December 31. The budget is adopted for the medium- term period of three years. On December 11, 2013 the Vologda Oblast Legislative Assembly members adopted the oblast budget for 2014 and for the planned period of 2015 and 2016 in the final reading. According to the Chairman of the Budget and Taxation Committee of the Vologda Oblast Legislative Assembly A.V. Kanaev, the project of the oblast budget is drafted in difficult economic conditions due to a negative impact of a significant public debt, a need to implement the May Decrees of the President and provision of local budgets balance...
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Budgets of regional centers in the north-west: tools for modernization or survival?
Статья научная
The paper opens a series of studies on the development of regional administrative centers. We put forward a hypothesizes that the budgetary policy regarding regional centers does not correspond to their current budget condition and is not focused on such development that would turn cities into the pillars of the balanced and harmonious spatial development of Russia. In this regard, the goal of the study is to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the budget system and the conditions of its functioning in regional administrative centers. We use economic and mathematical methods and reveal that the changes in geopolitical and geo-economic conditions in Russia had a negative impact on the budget systems of regional centers; it was manifested in the predominance of financial assistance in the structure of total revenues, in the stable dynamics of imbalance and in a decrease in the level of budget security of the population. We use official data of Rosstat and the Federal Treasury to find out key trends in the development of regional centers of the North-West of Russia since 2011. We conclude that the budgets of regional centers are trying to survive and are not ready to implement social transformation and promote economic growth. Based on this, we define major development directions for regional centers. The materials of the paper can be of use in the educational sphere, in the study of financial and economic disciplines; they can also be used by scientists as a basis for further research and by management bodies of various levels to substantiate management decisions. Further research will be devoted to the study of the effectiveness of management of the budget of the regional center, the level of debt burden and the state of intergovernmental fiscal relations.
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Building a conceptual model of sector development and assessment of the system-building effect
Статья научная
The article is devoted to forming a strategic vision of rabbit breeding sector taking into account the state priorities. The relevance of the topic is caused by the growing shortage of dietary meat consumption in Russia, which leads to deteriorating quality of food and reduces the quality of life. According to analysis of domestic research on the current problem, more attention is paid to studying the Soviet experience of planning, productionandresourceanalysisofthesectorandtheneedforitsdevelopment. Lackofexperience in strategic planning in rabbit breeding in domestic science has become the cause of vulnerability during the perestroika (reformation) period, resulting in a dramatic decline in production. In this regard, there is a need to improve the mechanisms of integrated development of the sector taking into account the general theory of strategizing. The purpose for the study is to develop a model of sustainable development of the rabbit breeding sector taking into account the assessment of the system-building effect of related activities...
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Статья научная
Social policy just like any other type of policy is an element of the management system. For effective social policy it is necessary to know the trends and quantitative characteristics of social development dynamics. The purpose for the research is to build an objective composite index to measure and compare the quality of life in constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Such an index is particularly useful in Russia which is undergoing the process of transformations amid increasing social and economic inequality. Objective complex assessment of the quality of life can play a major role in reducing such inequality in Russia. The author implements the algorithm of building a latent integral characteristic of system quality change based on statistical indicators for a series of sequential observations on the basis of principal components analysis given the measurement noise (SNR-based algorithm). As opposed to the classic principal components analysis where the information capacity of the calculated integral characteristic set a priori and is provided by selecting a number of principal components, in the proposed algorithm the information capacity is estimated a posteriori, based on variance criteria and the selected signal-to-noise ratio characterizing data variability...
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Статья научная
The article implements the econometric approach to the building of rating assessments of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The author defines three blocks of indicators for the construction of integral indices: “quality of the population”, “welfare of the population” and “quality of the social sphere”. They serve as the basis for determining the value of a single combined integral indicator. The author also gives recommendations on the improvement of the medical and demographic situation and enhancement of the “quality of the population” at the regional level.
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COVID-19 epidemic modeling - advantages of an agent-based approach
Статья научная
The article presents the authors’ approach to creating a model tool for predicting epidemiological development depending on quarantine measures with an assessment of peak loads on the health system. An agent-based model is proposed as such a tool, where agents-people go through the stages of disease from infection to recovery or death. The difference of an agent-based epidemiological model from the classical one is that these transitions are modeled not at the group level but at the individual one, which makes it possible to account for the heterogeneity of the population by the characteristics related to people’s sensitivity to the infection and their involvement in the spread of the disease. Thus, the probability of the agents’ severe disease complications depends on the individual basic level of health, and the infection spread is simulated taking into account the agents’ social (family) relationships. The novelty of the presented agent-based model of epidemics lies in the use of the mechanism of family formation, which makes the simulation of contacts at the level of an individual agent as close to reality as possible. The model was tested on the example of the COVID-19 epidemic in the city of Moscow. For a plausible simulation of the agents’ disease, the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 were used, set by expert practitioners involved in the examination and treatment of patients. Using computer simulations, the researchers obtained estimates of the epidemic course for various values of the model parameters, including the impact of quarantine measures on such characteristics as the number of infected and dead over the entire period of the epidemic, the date of the infection peak and its scope, and the peak need for beds, including intensive care. The used socio-demographic structure of the population and epidemiological characteristics of a specific infection are the parameters of the model, which allows it to be adjusted to the particular qualities of other regions and infections for its further practical use as a tool for supporting management decisions in regional and sectoral situation centers. A supercomputer version of the model is planned to be developed for this purpose.
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Catching-up and outstripping development of the Russian pharmaceutical industry
Статья научная
The paper assesses the effectiveness of the Russian pharmaceutical industry so as to determine the prospects for achieving self-sufficiency in drug provision and pharmaceutical leadership in the domestic market, more than half of which is occupied by foreign drugs. Effectiveness is considered in terms of achievements in import substitution (catching-up scenario), and in the development of domestic drugs (outstripping scenario). A comparison of the main economic indicators for leading foreign and Russian pharmaceutical companies reflects a disadvantaged position of the latter. The governmental target setting for domestic pharmaceutical production is compromised by interdepartmental inconsistency in the lists of essential drugs. A selective analysis of the implementation of the import substitution plan by the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia since 2015 has revealed that, even on formal grounds, Russia still has not established a full-fledged production of many drugs (in particular, the dependence on foreign active pharmaceutical substances still remains, and there are very few domestic manufacturing companies). The premise concerning fundamental impossibility to implement the outstripping scenario is substantiated by the fact that there is an insignificant number of original drugs for which Russian developers initiated clinical trials in 2020-2022. The results obtained show that the current situation in the Russian pharmaceutical industry does not promote the achievement of drug self-sufficiency. A proposal to consolidate assets, coordinate production programs and research agendas for accelerated and full-fledged import substitution was put forward. Prospects for research in the field of import substitution are related to deepening the analysis of production indicators, increasing sales, as well as enhancing clinical characteristics of reproduced drugs compared to foreign analogues. In the sphere of analyzing the innovativeness of pharmaceutical production, it seems advisable to methodologically elaborate on identifying original drugs and include this indicator in the industry management.
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Статья научная
The article focuses on the analysis of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. The data of the research in epidemiology of cardiovascular disease (ESSE-2013), carried out in the Vologda Oblast, and the materials of the state statistics service comprise an information base. The ESSE-2013 questionnaire included several thematic blocks corresponding to the main factors influencing the development of cardiovascular diseases. The distribution of respondents' answers reveals that there is a connection between cardiovascular diseases and effects of such factors as gender, age, heredity, and the body mass index. Of all the respondents who had infarction, 40% mention that their close relatives suffer from this disease as well. Of those who had a stroke, 30% have relatives with such a disease. The comparison of the respondents' age and gender characteristics by the presence of cardiovascular diseases shows that men and women over60 belong to the risk groups of such diseases as stroke, stenocardia and cardiac arrhythmia; the risk of heartattack is very high for men over 60; heart rhythm disorders - for women under 60...
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Centralization and autonomation as the drivers of socio-economic development of the Russian Far East
Статья научная
The article considers macroeconomic trends in the development of the economic complex in the Russian Far East. We explore the interaction of dynamic and structural parameters of reproduction and the specifics and regularities of promising modernization in the region. We analyze how the regional economy responds to various types of institutional impacts, and study the features of regional governmental economic policy in the east of the Russian Federation. We consider trends in external and internal impacts of economic, institutional, military and political nature. We describe formation regularities and assess sustainability trends. The aim of our research is to find the answer to the question about the possibilities and ways of transforming the socio-economic system of the Far East in accordance with the current national geo-economic paradigm. We prove that the best results in the development of the Far East were achieved in those periods when non-economic goals of the state were combined with the use of centralized material and financial resources of the state for the purpose of generating intra-regional economic and financial resources based on the support provided by government to the institutional environment that should be as comfortable as possible for the formation of endogenous reproduction within the region...
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Challenges and opportunities of lifelong learning in the field of energy efficiency and new energy
Статья научная
The article deals with the concept of lifelong learning (LLL concept), which is used widely in the developed countries. It reflects the reasons for the concept’s introduction in the field of energy efficiency and new energy in modern Russia as well as the advantages, opportunities and challenges of its adoption. The research contains the materials of foreign expeditions for the period from 2010 to 2011. The article also deals with the estimation of the legislative and regulatory basis for housing and energy-efficient policy. It is concluded that it is possible to develop the vast national potential in the field of new energy and energy efficiency by the introduction of the Life-Long Learning concept.
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Challenges of heterogeneity and sustainability of economic expanse of the Russian North
Статья научная
The article deals with theoretical aspects and criteria of sustainability of territorial systems, taking into account both the objective conditions of heterogeneity of economic space related to geographical and natural factors and the subjective ones conditioned by historical trends and characteristics of state regulation. Particular attention is paid to the northern regions, including the positions of natural rent and intergovernmental relations formation.
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Статья научная
Modern social reality is characterized by a significant level of uncertainty, which creates risks both in a global and local context. This led to a temporary outflow of a large number of the male population from Russia in the autumn of 2022. The Republic of Kazakhstan was among the countries that received the largest number of temporary migrants from Russia. The article presents a brief analysis of the conditions existing in Kazakhstan for the integration of temporary migrants from Russia; we also provide findings of a survey we have conducted with the help of an in-depth interview method; the survey considers social integration of young men who temporarily left Russia. The resource approach was chosen as the main theoretical approach, and the social capital of temporary migrants was considered as a key resource. To address the research tasks, we conducted 20 in-depth interviews with temporary male migrants from Russia who had arrived in Kazakhstan. As a result, we have revealed that social capital plays a significant role in the social integration of temporary migrants. First, the formation of new ties contributes to the formation of a community of migrants from Russia, which is supported by mutual assistance practices. Second, the accumulated social capital in the transnational social space allows temporary migrants to receive assistance from the country of origin, which greatly simplifies the integration process. Third, the social capital formed in the offline and online space is actively transformed from one form to another, which helps to address migrants’ issues in the process of social integration. However, a lack of financial and personal resources in the first place can hinder successful social integration in a new environment.
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Changing social reality amid crisis in the Russian society
Статья научная
The sociological interpretation of reality and the processes occurring in it is determined by various approaches to understanding its nature. The diversity of these approaches is eventually reduced to its definition as a reality of the social world, which reflects, on the one hand, objectively existing phenomena and processes and, on the other hand, people's subjective perceptions about the objective reality. Social actuality as objective social reality exists beyond the subject of social cognition, i.e. objectively. Each new generation inherits from their parent generations a complex system of economic, social and political structures, institutions, organizations and the established relationships which form the social infrastructure of objective reality (social reality). But people perceive directly only the part of objective reality in which they have their own knowledge. Due to knowledge of its particular sphere or different objects of reality, people get its more or less adequate subjective perception...
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