Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1659
Статья научная
The purpose of the study is a comprehensive assessment of housing market development based on a new system of indicators reflecting the population’s solvency and demand in the housing market, the economic development of the housing market, in order to identify trends in the housing market over a long period and reveal key problems hindering the housing market development in the Northern and Arctic regions of Russia. In this paper we propose a methodology to assess the regional housing markets, analyze the indicators of economic development in the North and the Arctic, estimate people’s financial capacity and demand in the housing market, indicate major changes in the regions’ housing sector that can occur on the background of the measures applied by the state due to the coronavirus pandemic. The scientific novelty of the work is determined by a comprehensive study of regional housing markets in the Northern and Arctic regions using the indices proposed by the authors, which made it possible to formulate a number of proposals for developing the housing market in the Arctic and Northern regions of the Russian Federation. The study results can be used by the government and administrative authorities in developing policies in the field of providing the population with comfortable housing and improving the regions’ housing stock, in working out the programs aimed at housing construction, as well as by specialists in the field of finance, researchers. In the future, based on a comparative analysis of the regions’ housing development, the authors plan to predict the regional housing markets development taking into account the changing parameters of population solvency and construction industry, considering the specifics of the Federation subject’s development and the effectiveness of government measures in this sector of the economy during the crisis period of the pandemic.
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Assessing the resilience of Russia’s economy to internal and external challenges
Статья научная
The competition between the world economy leaders and contenders, which has intensified dramatically in the 21st century, resulted in the formation of a new global geo-economic reality. Its features include dissemination of aggressive tools like trade wars, secondary and tertiary sanctions, and hybrid conflicts to influence competitors’ economic systems. Against the background of these circumstances coinciding with the rise of the sixth wave of innovation, there is a growing need to study the issue of raising the resistance of the economy to internal and external challenges. In this paper the resilience of the Russian economy is considered in the context of achieving economic sovereignty. We develop our own methodology for assessing its condition in terms of industrial, technological, structural and geo-economic components. The novelty of our approach is as follows: we combine end-to-end consideration of external factors influencing the resilience of the country’s economy; we abandon thresholds in favor of comparing accounting periods with the baseline period, and use a floating scale of assessment. In order to avoid data subjectivization we use only transparent information and statistical materials from Rosstat, World Bank, WTO, OECD and other official institutions. The methodology was tested on the 2015-2022 time period, which made it possible to identify weak spots in the country’s economic resilience system and develop a three-stage strategy for strengthening it. The major task of the first stage is to design a set of measures to protect and support the most vulnerable industries and those affected by sanctions pressure on the principles of “reciprocal protectionism”; at the second stage we propose to launch a restructuring of the economic system based on “enlightened semi-isolationism”; at the third stage it is vital to shift to “reasonable protectionism” with the task of integrating the national economy into the sixth wave of innovation. The results obtained can be used by the authorities of the Russian Federation when developing and adjusting the counter-sanctions strategy.
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Статья научная
Global climate change is one of the most critical issues of our time. It is of vital importance to Russia, since the functioning of the country’s economy to a great extant depends on natural resources, and one of the most dangerous consequences of climate change is the depletion of natural capital. In this regard, one should take an assessment of climate-related risks. The purpose of the work is a comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate-related risks on the socio-economic development of Russia. The article determines external climate-related risks expressed in the external pressure of international treaties and trade policy, pursued by foreign countries, particularly Europe, and internal risks realized through ecosystem disbalance and biodiversity loss, epidemic outbreaks and complication of their course, deterioration of infrastructure and other fundamental structures in a large part of the country. It has been established that Russia has just begun the transition to a low-carbon development, and the feature of this process compared to other countries is a comprehensive approach that involves both greenhouse gas reduction and its absorption directly from the atmospheric air. Hydrogen economy plays a key-role in emission reduction; in order to absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, it is planned to form industry for their utilization through building carbon polygons and farms. We have found that measures to reduce the country’s carbon footprint are now consistent and do not interfere with the interests of either business or government. However, the main issue, in our opinion, is the low rate of implementation of the measures taken relative to similar efforts of foreign countries, which to some extent gives foreign countries the opportunity, under the pretext of environmental policy, to influence the Russian economy and further hinder the Russian Federation in standing its ground in the international arena.
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Assessing the socio-economic potential of rural territories
Статья научная
Currently, the relevance of the research of trends and potential for rural territory development is primarily caused by increased attention of scientists and public authorities to spatial topics. In 2019, the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 and the new State Program of the Russian Federation “Integrated Rural Development” were adopted. In this regard, the article's aim is to develop a methodological approach to assessing the socio-economic potential of rural territories and, based on its approbation, to determine priority areas for ensuring their integrated and sustainable development. To achieve this goal, the authors use such scientific methods as economic, statistical, and comparative analysis, methods of generalization, analysis, synthesis, as well as the monographic method. The scientific novelty of the research is the proposed method of socio-economic potential measurement (with scoring) of rural territories. This method makes it possible to classify them by the level of potential development to justify the priorities of regional and local socio-economic policies for different types of territories. The authors have drawn the following conclusions: key development problems of rural territories of Russia, and Russian North in particular, are unfavorable demographic conditions; a low level of accomplished housing with all kinds of amenities (the national average is that only a third of the Fund is improved); a high share of population (for example, 40% of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and 45% of the Vologda Oblast) that is provided with poor-quality drinking water; a noticeable lag of rural population's income in comparison with urban citizens' incomes. Moreover, most municipal districts of the Vologda Oblast (14 out of 26) are characterized by the average potential level of their rural territories. The materials of the article can be used by the authorities and serve as a basis for further scientific research on this topic.
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Assessing the well-being of child population in the Northwestern federal district
Статья научная
One of the key challenges for modern states is change in the age structure of the population - a decline in children’s share and an increase in the elderly’s share. In Russia, associated with the declining birth rate, the number of children and their share in the population are also decreasing. This foregrounds the search for manageable factors for preservation of child population’s health and the turn to a comprehensive consideration of the environment that influences it. Children’s well-being is a complex concept reflecting a wide range of issues, ranging from children’s health to the standard of living of their families. Though this issue is of interest, there are only few works devoted to the assessment of children’s well-being in Russian regions. The aim of the study was to assess changes in the child population and characteristics of its well-being in the regions of the Northwestern Federal District. The informational background includes statistical data, results of population surveys, and data of sample observations on socio-demographic issues conducted by the Federal State Statistics Service. It is demonstrated that in spite of the small child population in the regions of the Northwestern Federal District, a steady trend of reducing infant mortality has developed. However, high incidence of disease indicates the continuing risks of loss of children’s health. Based on the analysis of statistical data, it was found that indicators of well-being of the child population in the regions of the District are differentiated. Advantage factors uniting most of the regions under consideration are high provision of children with preventive medical examinations, hot meals in schools, as well as a relatively high degree of their involvement in sports activities. The most pronounced obstacles to achieving children’s well-being in the Northwestern Federal District are the low level of meeting the need for families with children to improve housing conditions, insufficient number of pediatricians, and a high share of families with incomes below the poverty line in some regions.
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Assessment and strategy of coal resources development of the Komi Republic
Статья научная
The article deals with the problems of little-developed and sparsely populated areas of the northern region on the example of the Komi Republic, the typology of regions based on their industrial development is made, regional differences of the state’s northern policy are marked, the role of coal in the energy supply of the country is shown, the prospects of forming a new center of coal mining in the north-west Russia based on the Seydinskoyecoal deposit areevaluated.
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Assessment of economic potential of the Chelyabinsk oblast: state and development prospects
Статья научная
The article presents the results of economic activities in the Chelyabinsk Oblast for the last years, main indicators of improving regional investment policy, perspectives on implementation of regional economic projects. It provides economic indicators of the development of the Chelyabinsk Oblast industry potential in the case of metallurgical, machine-building, nuclear, etc. enterprises.
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Статья научная
The article reveals the dependence of the development of rural economy’s basis branch - the agricultural sector - on innovation. It shows the role of cattle breeding in providing the people with low-transportable dairy and meat products, peasant employment and rational use of natural forage grasslands. The authors examine the evaluation technique of innovation and investment project efficiency and reveal the effective implementation of such projects in cattle breeding in the peripheral northern rural region in the case of the Republic of Komi. There is a calculation of commercial efficiency indices of constructing 100 and 200 head dairies with the use of innovative technologies in different variants of state support. The article proves that it is necessary to strengthen the state support to farmers’ income and prolong the terms of concessional lending for the modernization of innovative cattle breeding.
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Статья научная
As part of this study, the goal was to develop adequate (high-precision) tools that would allow for not only a retrospective, but also a prospective assessment of interregional inequality in living standards in the Russian Federation based on the index of social well-being of the population, which is the result of a convolution of private indices. At first, a hypothesis was put forward about the possibility of building an adequate prognostic (traditional econometric) model of dependence of per capita average monetary incomes of the population on a group of factors. The information base of the study was exclusively official data of regional statistics for 2020-2022. In the course of empirical research (correlation and regression analysis), three econometric models differing in the number of factors (from 2 to 4) were developed. However, they allow (according to the average approximation error, taking values from the interval from 8.8 to 9.6 % for different econometric models) approximating regional statistics data only with an acceptable degree of accuracy. Next, a similar hypothesis was tested, but involving the use of a different tool (index method in combination with artificial intelligence), which makes it possible to measure the dependence of the population’s standard of living on a group of factors. In the course of neuromodelling it was found that any of the 5 artificial neural networks included in the Bayesian ensemble allowed approximating the regional statistics data with a high degree of accuracy (with an average error from 2.8 to 3.9 %). Thus, the second hypothesis can be considered confirmed. As part of the study, the predictive function was implemented by forming a Bayesian ensemble of artificial neural networks. The obtained results of the empirical study can act as a scientific basis for adjusting (updating) the socio-economic policy of regulating the quality and standard of living of the population and its interregional inequality among the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
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Assessment of labor potential of rural areas
Статья научная
The article presents the authors’ method to evaluate and analyze labor potential in rural areas. It is focused on the role of human factor in solving the problem of sustainable development of rural territories. It considers the need to apply special tools in the study of labor potential of rural areas in order to justify the management decisions on the allocation of budgetary funds for sustainable development. The work discloses the algorithm to calculate the integral index of labor potential of rural areas, the formulas and the sources of required data. Health, education and activity of the population are the main estimated characteristics of labor potential. The authors estimate them by calculating the partial indices for four statistical indicators: mortality in the working age, number of persons with higher education, number of individual entrepreneurs and in-migration. The developed method is tested on the basis of the Vologda Oblast statistical data. The article reveals the results of the partial and integral indices calculation; the specially compiled map clearly shows the main problems and features of the labor potential distribution in the region, in particular: increased values of the labor potential index in the areas near large cities and in the direction of the Vologda - Veliky Ustyug highway, reduced labor potential in the areas located far from the regional center and major highways...
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Assessment of mutual influence of economic and ecological processes
Статья научная
The article considers two issues: the assessment of the influence of economic development on the environment and the assessment of the impact of climate change on the development of certain economic sectors. The authors used methods of statistical analysis and economic-mathematical modeling. The article reveals differences in the dynamics and defines the nature of the relationship between GRP per capita and emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere (including greenhouse gases) for Russia’s regions. It is shown that the dynamics in some regions in 2000-2011 corresponds to the environmental Kuznets curve. The factors that affect the reduction of anthropogenic impact were determined. Several models for estimating the impact of changes in climatic conditions on the productivity of various crops were designed and tested.
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Assessment of opportunities and factors promoting innovation development of the regional economy
Статья научная
The article dwells on the problems and directions of innovation policy at the federal and regional levels. It is based on the methods of system analysis and expert estimations. The authors prove that it is industrialization that will be the most important factor of scientific and technical progress in the coming years. The capabilities of innovation processes in the North and in the Russian Arctic are analyzed and presented on the basis of expert estimations and forecast trends, among other things.
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Статья научная
The article proposes a scientific and practical approach to solving the problem of optimizing the regional transport-logistics structure by creating a reference network of logistics facilities of different class and purpose on the basis of criterion assessment of logistics capacity of each district of the region. The methodologies used by most researchers help objectively assess the logistics potential of the region at the level of either macro-systems or micro-systems assessing logistics capacity at the level of transportation with a certain number of participants and stable freight turnover. The proposed method of multi-criteria optimization helps not only identify the opportunities of logistics resources of each administrative and territorial of the region, as well as promote its active integration as a constituent entity of the Russian Federation in domestic and international transportation corridors, creating new opportunities for the strategy of its economic development...
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Assessment of performance of the head of a socially-oriented establishment
Статья научная
The estimate of efficient corporate governance, as well as professional activity of the subject of this process - a Manager - is one of the most important tasks of modern management. Meanwhile, more often only the performance of an enterprise or its employees is evaluated. A number of methods are applied and optional technologies are developed. But at the same time the managers’ professional activity is still assessed insufficiently, the specific indicators of this procedure are not identified; as a rule, they do not reflect specific features of the sphere and the industry. The paper proposes indicators to evaluate efficiency of the heads of socially-oriented establishments (on the example of the health sector), describes levels of results achievement. The empirical approbation of the indicators was held during two researches conducted by the ISEDT RAS in 2013 on the basis of the elaborated methods “Analysis of conditions for the functioning and development of health care institutions in the context of the industry modernization” and “Assessment of the quality and accessibility of medical services”...
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Assessment of the economic efficiency of scientific-technical progress in dairy cattle breeding
Статья научная
The article evaluates the economic efficiency of scientific-technical progress (STP) in dairy cattle breeding. A set of indicators for estimating the economic efficiency of milk production is described. The system of network planning and management on the basis of network graphs is used for scientific substantiation of the efficient milk production model. In order to ensure the comparability of production system elements, it is proposed to use the unified energy indicators to determine the ratio of energy contained in the manufactured products to the amount of energy spent on their production. The article provides the algorithm and results of economic and energy analysis of cow housing types efficiency on the reconstructed dairy farms in the Vologda Oblast.
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Assessment of the effectiveness of population's labor behaviourat the macro-level
Статья научная
The article considers the main approaches to the research into the effectiveness of people’s labor behavior. Special attention is paid to the analysis of statistical, social and statistical-sociological methods. The article presents the author’s methodology for analyzing the effectiveness of labor behavior by the spheres of manifestation: in the labor market and in an organization. The research shows a high degree of differentiation by this indicator among the Russian territories. The indicator’s value was the highest in the Ural Federal District (0.588 points) and Central Federal District (0.422 points); it was the lowest in the Siberian (-0.139 points) and North Caucasian (-1.269 points) federal districts. The integrated assessment of the people’s labor behavior effectiveness was conducted, 5 groups of RF regions were allocated according to this criterion depending on the indicator’s value. The results of the analysis show that the territories with the high level of the indicator under consideration include such subjects of the Central Federal District as Moscow and the Moscow Oblast...
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Assessment of the effectiveness of public investment in the increase in life expectancy
Статья научная
The beginning of the 21st century was marked by the emergence of national projects in our country, which exactly correspond to the private integral indicators used by the UN in calculating the index of human capital development since 1996. The national project “Health care” is aimed at increasing life expectancy, “Education” - expanding the population's access to knowledge, “Doubling GDP” - raising people's income. Attaching equal importance to each indicator, the author of the article set a task to consider the economic efficiency of budgetary funds allocated to improve the nation's health. The author assumed a proportion as the main hypotheses about the nature of correlation between life expectancy (H) and expenditures on health care (G); the calculated coefficients of correlation (Pearson, r) of dependence H = f(G) for all RF subjects for 2003-2013 (0.49
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Статья научная
When a human person is perceived not only as a key factor in social development, but also as its objective, there appears the understanding that the qualitative shifts in the reproductive process, most valuable for the society, occur not in the material sphere, but in the sphere associated with the development of a person and satisfaction of his/her needs. This fundamental postulate helps to prioritize the goals of economic development. Economic growth without social reproduction defeats the purpose of economic development, as economic growth, which does not enhance the level and quality of life, contradicts its primary purpose. Financing of social reproduction of the population is not forced diversion of financial resources from the production process, but social investment that improves the quality of life and attracts skilled workforce to the region. The rise in salary of the economically active population has a positive effect on the formation of a profitable part of the budget, which is a prerequisite for its economic and social development on a more innovative base...
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