Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1587
Статья научная
Currently, the concept of employment precarization is one of the most discussed topics in the field of social and labor relations. It is due to the fact that this phenomenon affects more people than unemployment and poses a threat to the provision of decent working conditions in modern economic environment, when flexible forms of employment are coming to the fore. Their use, despite many positive aspects, often leads to the destabilization of labor relations, the effects of which go far beyond the specific workplace. In this regard, the goal of our article is to study and classify the implications of employment precarization at different levels of society organization. We use general scientific methods such as critical analysis, generalization, comparison, and classification, which serve as the basis for the analysis of domestic and foreign scientific literature on the subject. The findings of our study prove that the effects of employment precarization are indeed multifaceted. At the individual level, this is manifested in the deterioration of material well-being, social security and health, and also in the uncertainty of personal/family and professional prospects. There may be benefits in the framework of the organization, but the destabilization of labour relations poses far greater threats, such as reduced productivity, increased staff turnover, and increased costs associated with the health and safety of employees. All this can have a negative impact on the life of society as a whole, affecting the functioning of the labor market, the degree of social cohesion, the stability of the political situation, the scale of social inequality and social exclusion, and the pace of socio-economic development. The prospects for further research are to consider the implications of employment precarization, taking into account the specifics of the social and labor sphere in Russia.
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Analyzing distribution effects of the federal budget transfers for the Far East
Статья научная
The article analyzes the economic consequences of federal redistributive transfers for the regions of the Far East on the basis of two-regional computable general equilibrium model. The model is based on the assumption that regional government aims at maximizing their total spending which is limited by the size of the region’s tax base. Migration, trade and federal transfers are the main sources of regional interconnection in the national economy. The authors calibrated the linearized version of the model on data of nine regions of the Far Eastern Federal District. The regions have significant structural and macroeconomic differences not only in such aggregates as average per capita consumption and wages, but also in terms of average per capita income and budget expenditures. The researchers have found that federal transfers have a negligible effect on the welfare of the regional households. However, they affect other variables, such as consumption, employment, price level, wages, regional taxes and government spending. An initial increase in the welfare level causes an in-migration of labor resources, and a new equilibrium is established at a lower price level and per capita income in the recipient region. Moreover, a decrease in prices for local products is observed for the South Zone of the Far Eastern Federal District (Primorsky and Khabarovsk Krais, the Amur Oblast), while for all other regions there is an opposite effect. The research has shown that the regions of the Far East are characterized by different reactions and may have opposite effects with respect to the state budgetary policy measures in relation to these regions.
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Статья научная
In the context of large-scale economic sanctions against Russia, it becomes an urgent task to design model complexes for assessing their impact on the economies of various countries. To this end, we use an agent-based approach and select China, the United States, the European Union, and the rest of the world as the main participants in trade relations with Russia. We design the trade wars model with the help of analyzing available data on the economies of the abovementioned countries and trade relations between them, and by assessing the imposed sanctions restrictions in quantitative and sectoral aspects. The information content of the developed model faced difficulties caused by the coordination of data on cross-industry supplies, imports and exports of goods in different countries. The article presents an algorithm that determines the sequence of processing the initial statistical data and bringing them to a unified form with detailed elaboration necessary for the model. The formation of arrays of initial data is carried out on the basis of the Federal State Statistics Service of Russia, Federal Customs Service, Eurostat, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, National Bureau of Statistics of the People's Republic of China and the World Bank. To unify the information of these agencies, eleven enlarged industries are created in the model; each of the industries corresponds to one or more industries or commodity groups. The target result of applying the algorithm is construction of cross-country tables of industry supplies of intermediate and investment goods, containing data on trade in Russia, the USA, the EU, China and the rest of the world. In the course of data processing, we also analyzed the sectoral structure of international commodity exchange in 2021, which indicates a close relationship between the economies of the European Union and Russia before the introduction of large-scale sanctions, and relatively low indicators of commodity exchange between Russia and the United States. An analysis of the dynamics of trade exchange between Russia and the countries that imposed sanctions restrictions in 2022 showed that Russia's imports from the EU countries fell by 38%, and exports in value terms increased by 24%, which is primarily due to a sharp increase in energy prices. For the United States, the drop in exports and imports with Russia was 70% and 50%, respectively.
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Статья научная
The research urgency is caused by implementing the investment projects for the development of raw material base and transport infrastructure, solution of the long-term goals of socio-economic development, ensuring national security of the Russian Arctic which are provided by the Basic Principles of Russian Federation State Policy in the Arctic to 2035 and the Strategy for the Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation up to 2020. One of the priorities is training of highly qualified personnel for work in the extreme natural and economic conditions of the Arctic, which will increase the efficiency of labor results and ensure comprehensive safety of the population. The purpose of the study is a quantitative and qualitative analysis of highly qualified personnel training in the interests of the development of the Russian Arctic in 2015-2018. The scientific novelty and theoretical significance of the article is due to the fact that the implementation of the so-called “Arctic” educational programs by Russian universities, including those belonging to the National Arctic Scientific and Educational Consortium, is monitored using sociological and analytical methods. Based on the results of the study and the existing experience, the authors propose the ways to improve the quality of training, including updating educational standards, using network forms of higher education, developing targeted training and innovative research infrastructure, and creating a world-class research and education center based on the universities in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. The researchers make a conclusion about the possibility of using the study results when developing the measures of regional labor management policy, as well as the formation of expert and analytical opinion on the issues of highly qualified personnel training at the institutes of higher education in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. The materials of the article have been repeatedly tested and can be used in the educational process at universities. A further scientific search may be associated with an attempt to compare the features of personnel training at the universities of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and the University of the Arctic.
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Announced in 2018, V. Putin's “decisive breakthrough” is now stuck
Статья научная
Over the last 10 years, the journal “Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast” has been presenting articles on relevant problems of Russian society and government in its “Editorial” section once in every two months. Based on expert opinions of a wide range of scientists, sociologists, economists, political and social activists, and a set of factual data, acquired using sociological and statistical tools, a long-term monitoring of the public administration efficiency has been conducted, which allowed assessing the current situation in the country in real time. In Editor-in-Chief’s previous article, published in the journal “Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast” no.4, we focused on the results of the all-Russian vote on amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, held on July 1, 2020. Amended Constitution significantly strengthens social obligations of the government, and it is aimed at the protection of Russia’s national interests. Besides, the nature of the new Constitution turned out to be relevant in terms of civilizational challenges, because common practice of border shutdowns during COVID-19 epidemic forms new outlines of the world order that strengthen a value of national interests and weaken globalization values, which have been dominant over the last 50 years. Nethertheless, many experts noted after the all-Russian vote that the consolidation of society around constitutional amendments did not work out. The results of our analysis, conducted according to data of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation, showed that the share of people, who voted against amendments, exceeded average national numbers in 47 Russian regions out of 86; it was even higher in some oblast centers. Its main reason is people’s disbelief in a desire and abilities of the ruling elites to implement election promises of the President. This situation is primarily caused by a lack of noticeable positive changes in the dynamics of the level and quality of life in the last ten years. In order to enhance this topic, we decided to analyze some key aspects of the whole process of the formation of the new post- Soviet statehood. The President himself initiated and publically announced this reform back in 1999, and he has been controlling its implementation ever since. 56 “The provision of Part 3 of Article 81 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, limiting a number of terms when one and the same person may hold the office of President of the Russian Federation, applies to the person who held and (or) holds the office of the President of the Russian Federation without regard to a number of terms during which he held and (or) holds this position at the time of entry into force of the amendment to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, which introduces a matching constraint and does not exclude for him the possibility to hold the office of President of the Russian Federation within the period allowed by the specified provision (RF Constitution, Art.81, p. 3.1).
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Another step toward V. Putin's "long state"
Статья научная
In January of 2020, Russian President V. V. Putin delivered an annual Address to the Federal Assembly and announced a number of significant proposals in order to change the Constitution of the Russian Federation. There were broad discussions about the proposed amendments and changes of the entire Russian political system, internal and external aspects of public administration, which they entail, in the socio-political space. This article presents the author’s view on this issue. The researchers analyzeV. Putin’s main historical steps, which have been determining the vector of the development of post- Soviet statehood over the past 20 years. The authors review the President’s program articles, his public speeches, public meetings, his key decisions in foreign and domestic policy, strategic system documents, etc. The authors conclude that V. Putin has been consistently building the framework of a new Russian statehood throughout all his presidential terms. He publicly and extensively described the contours of this system in his first program article “Russia at the Turn of the Millennium” (1999). The article also includes the analysis of expert evaluations of the motives of the 2020 Presidential Address; the examination of the implementation of national projects and the National Security Strategy, for which V. Putin took personal responsibility in 2015; statistical data, describing the state of affairs in the areas of demography and health, science and education, economic growth and population’s quality of life over the past 30 years. The results of the study allow us to say that the President’s initiatives, aimed at the transformation of the country’s entire political system, are largely forced. It is a necessary condition for the completion of the goal, set by him in 1999, until the end of his presidential term, limited by the current Constitution of the Russian Federation - the creation of a strong, independent social state with a stable political system, which effectively adapts to internal and external challenges.
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Anti-crisis influence reverences of the state
Статья научная
The article describes the author's view on the measures taken by the federal government to overcome economic crisis, the direction of forming the country's stable financial system is concerned.
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Статья научная
The theory of innovative economic development is based on the concept of “innovation”, which implies novelties that have a progressive impact on the development of a society. At the same time, human ingenuity often goes beyond the limits of public interest, giving birth to an intellectual product, which is not directly linked to the public progress. In this regard, such notions as “pseudo-innovation” and “anti-innovation” emerge, which transfer innovative topics from their constructive interpretation to their critical perception. Using the examples of derivative financial instruments, the article describes the process of transforming the innovation implemented to increase market reliability into its opposite, i.e. a significant factor of creating instability of modern financial markets.
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Application of outsourcing in the regions of Eastern Siberia and the Far Eastern federal district
Статья научная
Outsourcing is currently common in Russian business practice. The use of outsourcing changes the system of management in a company and affects its performance indicators. The aim of this study is to identify patterns in the development of outsourcing in regions of the Far Eastern Federal District and Eastern Siberia on the basis of empirical data. Despite the widespread introduction of outsourcing in the activities of enterprises, the patterns of development of this phenomenon at the regional level, its relationship with economic indicators and investment attractiveness of the regions are not studied sufficiently. The relevance of the study is determined by the strategy of improving the business environment in the regions with the aim of attracting investment and implementation of innovative technology. Our research is built on the information methods of data structuring and correlation and regression analysis. We selected activities that are transferred to outsourcing and developed a structure of a multidimensional data array that helps apply various methods of analytical data processing...
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Application of standardization tools to improve the performance of executive authorities
Статья научная
The article considers the issues of improving the quality of public services through the development of standardization. The establishment of standards not only for performance, but also for processes, including management processes, is a characteristic feature of modern standardization. And management quality is very important for sustainable development of the region, country, and also for the quality of life. At present, it is necessary to create a modern system of public administration, working for the citizens and in the interests of the citizens. In order to enhance the quality of government institutions’ performance, several countries use the systems based on national and international standards, as well as on the models of national quality awards. The experience in the use of such systems has shown that a necessary condition for improving the performance quality of executive authorities consists in introduction of modern methods of quality management, including quality management systems...
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Applying the index method in the research on consumer sentiment
Статья научная
The index method is an effective tool to study and assess consumer sentiment in the given territory by calculating the aggregated consumer sentiment indices based on sociological data. Our paper discusses methodological approaches used in international practice to measure and evaluate consumer sentiment with the help of integrated indices; we also consider trends in the consumer sentiment index of residents of Russia and the Vologda Oblast. Using multiple regression analysis, we investigate the impact of macroeconomic indicators on consumer sentiment. The information base of the research is presented by the results of the public opinion monitoring conducted by Vologda Research Center of RAS (VolRC RAS), all-Russian analytical centers (Levada-Center, International Institute for Marketing and Social Research GfK Rus), as well as by the data of the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) and the territorial office of the Federal State Statistics Service for the Vologda Oblast (Vologdastat)...
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Статья научная
The export of education in Russia was officially proclaimed as a priority area of governmental policy in 2017. The subsequently adopted documents such as the project “Development of the export potential of the Russian education system”, the program “Priority 2030”, and the national project “Science and universities” confirm that the export of education remains an important governmental strategy, despite the changed geopolitical context. The export of education is considered in the works of scientists from Russia and other countries: they study in detail the economics of education export in various countries, adaptation of foreign students, methodological approaches, legal and visa systems of educational migration, etc. The aim of our work is to develop a methodology for evaluating the effectiveness of the export of education by universities in the cities - university centers of Russia and test it on the materials of the Siberian Federal District. Despite a wide range of relevant publications that we arranged in six main groups, these aspects have not been the subject of scientific analysis. We have developed our own system of indicators and indices (a comprehensive indicator of the effectiveness of the export activities of universities in the cities - university centers, calculated on the basis of indices of the educational and research potential of universities’ export activity). The methodology has been tested on the indicators for 115 universities and 30 cities - university centers of the Siberian Federal District. We have revealed that the data are scattered: out of 29 cities where foreign students study, only Tomsk is in the group of cities with high potential for educational and research export activities. The majority of the cities - university centers (22) belong to group 3 - with low potential for educational and research export activities. Our research makes it possible to comprehensively assess the effectiveness of the export of educational services by universities and cities - university centers in each group and set out the priorities for the development of universities; and also identify cities that best meet the needs of the country to implement the export of education.
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Approaches to assessment of energy security in the region (by the example of the Chelyabinsk oblast)
Статья научная
The article presents the results of analysis of key aspects of economic activity in the Chelyabinsk oblast by the example of assessment of energy security in the region. The article shows its dependence on individual elements of the fuel and energy complex. The authors calculated indicators of energy security and identified possible solutions of problems related to the potential threat to energy security in the region.
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Статья научная
The goal of the paper is to study approaches to the assessment of natural capital of forests, especially forest resources, and the prospects for modernization of forest management in the context of green economy. We show that current socio-economic development strategies in most countries encourage rapid accumulation of physical, financial and human capital through excessive depletion and degradation of natural capital, which includes natural resources and ecosystems. In order to prevent this threat, it is necessary to move to the concept of green economy that involves effective use of natural resources, ensuring the sustainability of natural ecosystems and reducing the use of resources in production and consumption. In this regard, we study indicators and methodological approaches used for measuring and assessing forest resources in the global and domestic practice. We reveal the shortcomings and limitations of their application, which are associated with the quantitative assessment of the state of forests, without taking into account qualitative and structural changes...
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Assessing export potential of the country in the context of global demand in the world food market
Статья
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Assessing federal transfers' role in the subnational budget system of the Russian Federation
Статья научная
Subfederal authorities' financial independence is an essential condition for their effective functioning. Currently, in Russia, the procedure of inter-budgetary regulation is excessively centralized, and the share of transfers in the structure of regional revenues is high. At the same time, subfederal budgets arethebasiclevelofthebudgetsystem, whichconcentratesthemainpartofsociallysignificantexpenditures. In this regard, the development of a comprehensive tool for the empirical analysis of tax revenues and the effectiveness of inter-budget transfers, undertaken in the study, seems relevant. The purpose of the research is to develop an economic and statistical apparatus for assessing the results of transferring inter-budget transfers from the federal budget to the constituent entities of the Federation. Achieving this goal required to: consider the features of the structure of budget revenues in the regions; determine the scale of the territories' budget revenues heterogeneity, and give its quantitative assessment; identify the directions of the federal center's transfer policy; find out the nature of gratuitous transfers impact on the regional budgets. The novelty of the presented work is the creation of an economic and statistical apparatus for the study of the impact of federal budget policy on the region's public finance. This allowed us to characterize gratuitous transfers from the federal budget to the regions and determine whether there is a motivation to increase tax revenues in the Russian Federation's subjects or not. It is concluded that improving inter-budgetary relations should include measures to strengthen the Russian regions' tax potential, which is impossible if the stability of securing tax revenues is not ensured. Authorities need measures to prevent a direct correlation between actual and projected budget revenues and expenditures and the volume of transfers received from the federal budget to equalize budget security. The results of the research can be used to study the possibilities of improving budget policy in the direction of equalizing and stimulating the regions to strengthen their own revenue base.
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