Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1659
COVID-19 epidemic modeling - advantages of an agent-based approach
Статья научная
The article presents the authors’ approach to creating a model tool for predicting epidemiological development depending on quarantine measures with an assessment of peak loads on the health system. An agent-based model is proposed as such a tool, where agents-people go through the stages of disease from infection to recovery or death. The difference of an agent-based epidemiological model from the classical one is that these transitions are modeled not at the group level but at the individual one, which makes it possible to account for the heterogeneity of the population by the characteristics related to people’s sensitivity to the infection and their involvement in the spread of the disease. Thus, the probability of the agents’ severe disease complications depends on the individual basic level of health, and the infection spread is simulated taking into account the agents’ social (family) relationships. The novelty of the presented agent-based model of epidemics lies in the use of the mechanism of family formation, which makes the simulation of contacts at the level of an individual agent as close to reality as possible. The model was tested on the example of the COVID-19 epidemic in the city of Moscow. For a plausible simulation of the agents’ disease, the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 were used, set by expert practitioners involved in the examination and treatment of patients. Using computer simulations, the researchers obtained estimates of the epidemic course for various values of the model parameters, including the impact of quarantine measures on such characteristics as the number of infected and dead over the entire period of the epidemic, the date of the infection peak and its scope, and the peak need for beds, including intensive care. The used socio-demographic structure of the population and epidemiological characteristics of a specific infection are the parameters of the model, which allows it to be adjusted to the particular qualities of other regions and infections for its further practical use as a tool for supporting management decisions in regional and sectoral situation centers. A supercomputer version of the model is planned to be developed for this purpose.
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Catching-up and outstripping development of the Russian pharmaceutical industry
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The paper assesses the effectiveness of the Russian pharmaceutical industry so as to determine the prospects for achieving self-sufficiency in drug provision and pharmaceutical leadership in the domestic market, more than half of which is occupied by foreign drugs. Effectiveness is considered in terms of achievements in import substitution (catching-up scenario), and in the development of domestic drugs (outstripping scenario). A comparison of the main economic indicators for leading foreign and Russian pharmaceutical companies reflects a disadvantaged position of the latter. The governmental target setting for domestic pharmaceutical production is compromised by interdepartmental inconsistency in the lists of essential drugs. A selective analysis of the implementation of the import substitution plan by the Ministry of Industry and Trade of Russia since 2015 has revealed that, even on formal grounds, Russia still has not established a full-fledged production of many drugs (in particular, the dependence on foreign active pharmaceutical substances still remains, and there are very few domestic manufacturing companies). The premise concerning fundamental impossibility to implement the outstripping scenario is substantiated by the fact that there is an insignificant number of original drugs for which Russian developers initiated clinical trials in 2020-2022. The results obtained show that the current situation in the Russian pharmaceutical industry does not promote the achievement of drug self-sufficiency. A proposal to consolidate assets, coordinate production programs and research agendas for accelerated and full-fledged import substitution was put forward. Prospects for research in the field of import substitution are related to deepening the analysis of production indicators, increasing sales, as well as enhancing clinical characteristics of reproduced drugs compared to foreign analogues. In the sphere of analyzing the innovativeness of pharmaceutical production, it seems advisable to methodologically elaborate on identifying original drugs and include this indicator in the industry management.
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Статья научная
The article focuses on the analysis of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. The data of the research in epidemiology of cardiovascular disease (ESSE-2013), carried out in the Vologda Oblast, and the materials of the state statistics service comprise an information base. The ESSE-2013 questionnaire included several thematic blocks corresponding to the main factors influencing the development of cardiovascular diseases. The distribution of respondents' answers reveals that there is a connection between cardiovascular diseases and effects of such factors as gender, age, heredity, and the body mass index. Of all the respondents who had infarction, 40% mention that their close relatives suffer from this disease as well. Of those who had a stroke, 30% have relatives with such a disease. The comparison of the respondents' age and gender characteristics by the presence of cardiovascular diseases shows that men and women over60 belong to the risk groups of such diseases as stroke, stenocardia and cardiac arrhythmia; the risk of heartattack is very high for men over 60; heart rhythm disorders - for women under 60...
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Centralization and autonomation as the drivers of socio-economic development of the Russian Far East
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The article considers macroeconomic trends in the development of the economic complex in the Russian Far East. We explore the interaction of dynamic and structural parameters of reproduction and the specifics and regularities of promising modernization in the region. We analyze how the regional economy responds to various types of institutional impacts, and study the features of regional governmental economic policy in the east of the Russian Federation. We consider trends in external and internal impacts of economic, institutional, military and political nature. We describe formation regularities and assess sustainability trends. The aim of our research is to find the answer to the question about the possibilities and ways of transforming the socio-economic system of the Far East in accordance with the current national geo-economic paradigm. We prove that the best results in the development of the Far East were achieved in those periods when non-economic goals of the state were combined with the use of centralized material and financial resources of the state for the purpose of generating intra-regional economic and financial resources based on the support provided by government to the institutional environment that should be as comfortable as possible for the formation of endogenous reproduction within the region...
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Challenges and opportunities of lifelong learning in the field of energy efficiency and new energy
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The article deals with the concept of lifelong learning (LLL concept), which is used widely in the developed countries. It reflects the reasons for the concept’s introduction in the field of energy efficiency and new energy in modern Russia as well as the advantages, opportunities and challenges of its adoption. The research contains the materials of foreign expeditions for the period from 2010 to 2011. The article also deals with the estimation of the legislative and regulatory basis for housing and energy-efficient policy. It is concluded that it is possible to develop the vast national potential in the field of new energy and energy efficiency by the introduction of the Life-Long Learning concept.
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Challenges of heterogeneity and sustainability of economic expanse of the Russian North
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The article deals with theoretical aspects and criteria of sustainability of territorial systems, taking into account both the objective conditions of heterogeneity of economic space related to geographical and natural factors and the subjective ones conditioned by historical trends and characteristics of state regulation. Particular attention is paid to the northern regions, including the positions of natural rent and intergovernmental relations formation.
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Статья научная
Modern social reality is characterized by a significant level of uncertainty, which creates risks both in a global and local context. This led to a temporary outflow of a large number of the male population from Russia in the autumn of 2022. The Republic of Kazakhstan was among the countries that received the largest number of temporary migrants from Russia. The article presents a brief analysis of the conditions existing in Kazakhstan for the integration of temporary migrants from Russia; we also provide findings of a survey we have conducted with the help of an in-depth interview method; the survey considers social integration of young men who temporarily left Russia. The resource approach was chosen as the main theoretical approach, and the social capital of temporary migrants was considered as a key resource. To address the research tasks, we conducted 20 in-depth interviews with temporary male migrants from Russia who had arrived in Kazakhstan. As a result, we have revealed that social capital plays a significant role in the social integration of temporary migrants. First, the formation of new ties contributes to the formation of a community of migrants from Russia, which is supported by mutual assistance practices. Second, the accumulated social capital in the transnational social space allows temporary migrants to receive assistance from the country of origin, which greatly simplifies the integration process. Third, the social capital formed in the offline and online space is actively transformed from one form to another, which helps to address migrants’ issues in the process of social integration. However, a lack of financial and personal resources in the first place can hinder successful social integration in a new environment.
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Changing social reality amid crisis in the Russian society
Статья научная
The sociological interpretation of reality and the processes occurring in it is determined by various approaches to understanding its nature. The diversity of these approaches is eventually reduced to its definition as a reality of the social world, which reflects, on the one hand, objectively existing phenomena and processes and, on the other hand, people's subjective perceptions about the objective reality. Social actuality as objective social reality exists beyond the subject of social cognition, i.e. objectively. Each new generation inherits from their parent generations a complex system of economic, social and political structures, institutions, organizations and the established relationships which form the social infrastructure of objective reality (social reality). But people perceive directly only the part of objective reality in which they have their own knowledge. Due to knowledge of its particular sphere or different objects of reality, people get its more or less adequate subjective perception...
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Статья научная
The issue of achieving economic development, which is especially acute in the context of geopolitical turbulence, is of interest to government representatives and scientists, both Russian and foreign. One of the ways to resolve it is to make the economy more complex, and identify the most and least developed segments. The latter is implemented within the framework of the concept of economic complexity. The aim of the work is to study specifics of the export specialization of Northwestern Federal District regions. To achieve the goal, we address tasks such as determining the export specialization of the regions of the Northwest of Russia, identifying the commodity structure of the received specializations, and determining the micro-specializations of the regions within the district. Based on the statistical data of the federal customs administrations on foreign trade of the country’s constituent entities, we calculate the index of identified comparative advantages. Through the assessment of the index values and the contribution of goods to the total volume of exports of the regions, we determine the goods of the export specialization of Northwestern Federal District regions and reveal the main specialization of the district. Among the goods characterized by a small contribution to the total volume of exports of the regions, the search for promising micro-specializations is carried out in two ways. As part of the first method, among the goods exported by Northwestern Federal District regions, we highlight those in whose supplies Russia occupies a leading position in the world. The second way is to assess the markets of developing countries. Scientific novelty of the research lies in the definition of goods of export specialization of Northwestern Federal District regions using the tools of the concept of economic complexity. Information base of the study includes data from federal customs administrations, the financial company MSCI, foreign databases Trade Map and The Observatory of Economic Complexity, as well as Russian and foreign research in the field of industry specializations. The results of the study can be used by regional authorities in the development of strategic documents, to substantiate economic policy in the search for promising economic specializations and market niches.
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Charity work of local community: results of the sociological research in the Russian region
Статья научная
In recent years, the participation of citizens in the solution of social problems and society’s self-organization has become an important research agenda. Public practices are perceived as a crucial resource for socio-economic development at the state and local levels. The purpose of this paper is to identify the development level and features of motivation for participation/non-participation in charitable activities from the standpoint of the Russian region’s local community. We present an approach to the essence and components of charity based on a critical analysis of academic literature. Through a mass public opinion survey in the Vologda Oblast, 2019; N=1900), we revealed the level of local community’s involvement in certain charity forms (helping behavior, monetary donations, volunteerism as part of public organizations’ activities). A low level of population’s participation in formal charitable practices, related to work of voluntary associations, and high informal charitable activity in various forms of helping behavior draw some attention. Using a factor analysis of latent variables, the authors determined that social norms and religious values are among the main factors that encourage a local community to engage in charity work. In addition, we revealed that the formed idea about the predominance of other entities’ social responsibility (primarily - the state) and suspicious attitude to a charity system become serious obstacles to the inclusion of a local community in charitable activities. The study on the current state of charitable activity in Russia’s local communities can provide an empirical basis and theoretical impetus for basic research in this area and for practical work aimed at studying specific types of activities to increase population’s involvement in local charity.
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Child population in Russia: main problems of development
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The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the problems of childhood in modern Russia, the relevance of which determine the severity of the socio-economic transformations of a society in which this part of the population is most vulnerable. At the same time investments in children's development - an investment in future human capital of the country. The results of this study allowed the author to highlight three laps problems associated with “the field of childhood”. First round - problems related to the scope, size and structure of children. The second set of problems related to analysis of conditions and institutions of formation of childhood. The third set of problems of the younger generation in Russia - is an unprecedented deterioration in health. Thus, the main objective of social policy is to improve the quality potential of children in the context of reducing their numbers. In the first place in this context is the task of improving health, from birth, followed by education and socialization throughout their internal relationship as a foundation for the development of system programs of public policy with regard to childhood.
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Children and young people in Russia: global challenges of modernity
Статья научная
The present-day world’s development is becoming more and more uneven and new global challenges are emerging. Russia should respond to them by enhancing its economic competitiveness, preserving and increasing its population and human potential, first of all, that of children and young people. The paper points out that for the Russian Federation with its vast territory and substantial reserves of natural resources the most important geopolitical challenges consist in the preservation and increase of population and human potential. The authors prove that the formation of the population of Russia is under double “pressure” of high mortality and low fertility; therefore, natural movement (decline) is not completed by mechanical movement. In addition, the article determines that the share of young people in the total population is decreasing. For the first time in the history of Russia the share of children has become lower than the proportion of the elderly. In 2013 in 56 Russian regions, the proportion of children and adolescents accounted for less than 20% of the population (in the early 2000s, there were 41 such regions, and in 1990 - three)...
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Children's health and development: results of a 20-year monitoring
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The analysis of the data from domestic and foreign theory and practice has shown that the monitoring of the cohort of children is the most effective method of studying and assessing the health and development of children in order to make efficient and adequate management decisions. The paper presents the results of the medical-and-sociological monitoring “Research into the conditions for the formation of a healthy generation”, performed by RAS Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories since1995 with the active support on the part of the Vologda Oblast Department of Healthcare. The authors have found out that each age period is characterized by a specific set of factors influencing health. Infancy and early age are dominated by the impact of medico-biological and social factors (poor health of the parents; low level of hemoglobin during pregnancy; mother’s smoking during pregnancy; labour conditions of the mother that do not meet sanitary standards; specifics of the infant’s feeding)...
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Статья научная
Due to their strategic location and relatively developed economies, the three countries of the South Caucasus, namely Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia, have cooperated with China since 2015 to leverage their economic growth. China has significantly invested in these countries to boost their productive capacity and integrate them into China-centered global value chains. However, are these countries ready to launch into cooperation with advanced economic powers such as China? To address this question, the current paper integrates overall trends in aggregate and sectoral productivity to evaluate the readiness of the South Caucasus for a new phase of industrialization using Chinese investments and projects as new and important developments in the region’s economic life. Overall, the results indicate a downward trend in manufacturing value added in the South Caucasian economies. While lagging trends raise concerns, Chinese foreign directed investment may resolve issues related to incomplete capacity utilization in the South Caucasus through infrastructure investments. In contrast to the existing literature on China’s economic presence in the South Caucasus, this paper examines Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia in both intraregional and interregional terms by comparing them to the Visegrad and Baltic countries, respectively. This approach enables the South Caucasian countries to be situated in the context of Chinese foreign direct investments influx, as the South Caucasus shares a similar history and prospects with the Baltic countries and the Visegrad countries, respectively. The results of a one-sample t-test indicate that, on average, capital deepening and aggregate labor productivity are higher in the South Caucasus than in the Visegrad and Baltic regions. However, manufacturing labor productivity was significantly lower in the South Caucasus than in the benchmark regions. Moreover, the estimated effect sizes at the sectoral level - as measured through eta squared - illustrated the strength of the obtained differences. These findings document the need for improved economic reforms and policies to keep pace with the regions that are driven by foreign direct investments and that have successfully integrated into global value chains. Otherwise, China-led economic development may fail to industrialize the South Caucasus, misguiding the respective parties’ beliefs and expectations. Thus, further research is needed alongside specific sectoral policy strategies to document country- or region-specific challenges related to the increase in Chinese projects and foreign direct investments in the South Caucasus.
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Circumpolar region amid socio-spatial transformation of a territory (case study of Yamal)
Статья научная
The article examines the issues of socio-spatial transformation of the Northern territory associated with the development of one of the most important far-reaching oil and gas region of Russian arctic regions. The authors demonstrate the possible solutions to these issues based on interdisciplinary and sociological studies conducted by the authors and their colleagues, including mass surveys of the population of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug by representative sample in 2005, 2010 and 2015 and sociological diagnostics of their results in the context of different social groups of respondents (long-term residents, including representatives of native minorities, new settlers, shift personnel). These studies have helped reveal the social issues characteristic of the Arctic region and requirements to scientific support of possible their possible solutions. The authors provide the authorities with the information necessary for the preparation and adoption of effective managerial decisions in the theoretical, methodological and practical discourse; such information cannot be obtained otherwise, for example, using the statistics...
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Статья научная
The study is part of a hybrid methodology that combines field and remote methods for collecting primary sociological data. The goal of the study is to verify and show the capabilities of expert online survey in studying the issues of reforming the power and management hierarchy in conjunction with the data from official sources, representative field survey, content analysis of the regional media and online studying of network communities in regions with different levels of socio-cultural modernization, which are used as a whole in the study under a Russian Science Foundation grant. The paper presents summarized results of the initial stage (in four out of twelve regions of the Russian Federation) of this study aimed to obtain representative data on the work of government and management authorities in the context of socio-cultural modernization in individual regions, to identify relations that affect the functionality of regional administration systems, which determine the nature and level of their development, and the ability of regional power and management vertical to effectively solve socio-economic problems...
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Civil society and the transit of power in 2024
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The article deals with the issue of the transit of power in 2024 and the role of civil society in addressing key tasks that the head of state has to deal with in the period before the election to the State Duma of the Russian Federation (2021) and the presidential election (2024). We investigate historical aspects of the transit of power in Russia that show the broad and complex scale of its implications for social development. We provide forecasts and expert assessments of the current situation in the country as a factor in the possible success of the transit of power in 2024. On the basis of the data of the all-Russian and regional sociological studies implemented in the form of a monitoring we analyze the dynamics of public opinion on key issues related to public and personal needs that are actual and expected to be implemented. The analysis reveals that the most acute problems of concern to the population are long-term and unresolved. On the background of the launch (unsuccessful in many ways) of national projects 2018 and worrying forecasts about the prospects for the future of Russia, and given the fact that Russia’s economy has overcome the period of stagnation observed since 2014, this brings to the fore the issue concerning the effectiveness of public administration in the new political cycle in which (according to the Constitution of the Russian Federation) Vladimir Putin will not be able to take the post of head of state. In the “transit” period (the period remaining until the State Duma election of 2021 and the presidential election of 2024), the President has to deal with the tasks of a higher level. One of them is related to the implementation of the potential of civil society accumulated over the past 20 years, since civil society is an active entity representing the interests of the general population in dialogue with the authorities at all levels of government. The solution to this problem can guarantee a successful “transit” of the Russian society in a new historical period.
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Classification of non-political participation practices of urban youth: forms, motivation, barriers
Статья научная
The article explores civic (non-political) participation practices among young people, which are understood as voluntary, public, and altruistic individual or collective actions. They are viewed as a condition for allowing young people to exercise their right to the city and are aimed at transforming urban space. The role of citizens in modern urban centres is increasing; they are becoming not only users, but also co-authors. Local activities that transform the territory in which young people live lead to an increase in their self-esteem and confidence, the acquisition of soft skills, and the formation of norms of interpersonal interaction. This study's main aim is to identify types of youth civic participation in a large industrial city. Drawing on data from an online survey (quota sampling, n = 800) of young people in the large industrial city of Yekaterinburg (Russia) conducted at the end of 2020, we suggest a typology of civic participation practices. The types were identified through the experience of participation in activities aimed at exercising a right to the city, a willingness to collaborate with other people, the degree of the institutionalisation of civic practices, and motivation to participate or not participate in civic practices. The article argues for building a constructive dialogue with government authorities to meet the needs of young people in transforming urban space. Studying specific do-it-yourself urban design practices in different cities and territories to find the most successful models for potential replication may be a promising direction for further research.
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