Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1587
Статья научная
In the context of new global challenges and fulfillment of commitments to implement the Sustainable Development Agenda for the period up to 2030, it becomes especially relevant to assess the effectiveness of the current innovation policy pursued by the Russian Federation and its compliance with the priorities of sustainable development adopted by the international community. The purpose of the study is to assess the results of state policy aimed at enhancing innovation in the agricultural sector and to determine the extent to which the targets of programs and strategies for the development of agribusiness in the innovation sector comply with the priorities of Agenda 2030. Applying the system approach to the study of the concept for sustainable development and using our own integrated methodology, we have found that there are no significant results regarding the implementation of innovation policy; we have also revealed an extremely low degree of consistency of federal and regional sectoral programs with the priorities of the Sustainable Development Goals. We have determined that at present it is difficult to conduct a quantitative assessment of the results of innovation policy implementation at the level of a particular region, industry or company; the available indicators do not help to assess their contribution to the achievement of innovation-oriented Sustainable Development Goals. In this regard, we propose to include the objectives of the Sustainable Development Goals in state, sectoral and regional programs for scientific and technological development and to develop a system of their indicators, consistent with the targets of the documents on strategic development of agribusiness in the innovation sector, for monitoring purposes. Thus, the scientific novelty of the research lies in the development and implementation of our own approach to identifying the degree of compliance of the targets of current programs for development of the agricultural sector with the priorities of innovation-oriented Sustainable Development Goals. The results of this study can be used by executive authorities in the development and substantiation of correcting measures aimed at improving state policy in the field of promotion of innovation in the agricultural sector and, as a result, achieving the Sustainable Development Goals.
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Assessing population's quality of life on the basis of intelligent algorithms and dynamic modeling
Статья научная
The article deals with the issues of research, modeling and management of society as a societal system. The authors propose a methodology for studying society based on the system composition of the main structures of activities organization, as well as the integration of general scientific laws and approaches. The peculiarity of the methodology is that society is represented as system integrity and a unity of economic, political, social, spiritual, and cultural sub-systems. Improving population’s quality of life is considered a criterion for society’s development and, at the same time, the effectiveness of its management. The paper proposes the models for assessing the quality of life as an integral indicator of the society’s quality of functioning and development, which allow evaluating this indicator, studying its structure, and the dynamics of its changes. An algorithm for managing the functioning quality of the societal system, based on the assessment of the integral index, is developed. A special feature of the algorithm is the complex application of data mining and dynamic modeling methods. The algorithm includes two main stages. At the first stage, data mining is performed on the quality of the system functioning in the selected area in the regional context. The results of the analysis allow identifying the clusters of regions and determining their characteristic features. The second stage involves developing the integral index structure and a dynamic model for assessing the functioning quality of the societal system on the basis of the integral index calculation, producing control actions in the form of changes in the volume of investments taking into account the characteristics of the constructed clusters. The authors consider the case of the developed algorithm implementation for quality management of social infrastructure in the regions of the Russian Federation, which allowed determining the recommended change in the level of investment in social infrastructure development by the regional clusters.
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Статья научная
The issue concerning the formation of an export-oriented agricultural economy is associated with the need to assess its innovation and investment activity and analyze the quality of state policy to stimulate innovation and high technology products in agricultural production. High differentiation of Russian regions by natural and climatic conditions and the level of resource provision are factors that hinder the formation of new export positions, which predetermines the need to improve state investment policy, considering regional differences. The purpose of this study is to identify the dependence of the export level of agricultural products on the level of innovation and investment activity, the development of recommendations to improve innovation and investment activity of territorial and sectoral agricultural systems. We put forward the following hypothesis: one of the most important factors in increasing the volume of agricultural products exports of the region is the level of innovation and investment activity. As a methodological basis we use theoretical approaches of foreign and Russian authors to assessing the impact of innovation and investment processes on the increase of export potential, as well as the formation of balanced export-oriented agricultural systems in the territorial and sectoral sections. We develop a model estimating the relationship between investment in fixed capital in agriculture, gross output of the industry, and exports of agricultural products using methods of multivariate statistical analysis. We assessed the dynamics of regional innovation and investment development and compared the selected typological groups of Russian regions by their production and export efficiency, the resources used and the results achieved. The novelty and significance of the developed model lies in the possibility of its application for diagnostics and monitoring of the state of territorial sectoral and regional innovation and investment agrosystems. For each type of region we proposed differentiated strategies of state regulation aimed at overcoming the limitations of low innovation and investment activity in the formation of exportoriented agricultural economy. The results of the study are of practical value for the development and implementation of targeted mechanisms and tools to improve the efficiency of innovation and investment activities in order to ensure the leading position of the regions in exports of agricultural products.
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Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of China and Russia
Статья научная
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected economic development in countries around the world. It aggravated existing problems and increased the demand for economic transformation, modernization and qualitative development, triggered a new technological reform, which led to the emergence of new economic business forms and new consumption. The article assesses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economies of China and Russia. To achieve this goal, we review the state of business activity in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of the national economy, and summarize the main measures of the anti-pandemic policy implemented by the Chinese and Russian governments. We look into the dynamics of functioning of offline economic spheres that are aimed at personal communication (tourism, catering, retail, transport, culture, entertainment), as well as online spheres implying human-computer interaction (electronic retailing, express delivery, remote work, telemedicine) in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We make conclude that the extent of COVID-19 impact on the economy depends on the effectiveness of measures for its prevention and control. We are convinced that at the moment it is necessary to correlate these measures with economic and social development policies, and take into consideration increased consumption as an important aspect of mitigating the effects of COVID-19, accelerate the transformation and modernization of traditional industries, actively develop new economic business forms and build a more open monetary circulation both within the country and globally, thus enhancing the role of the state in global supply chains.
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Статья научная
The article is devoted to the assessment of the development of digital employment in the IT sector. The aim of the study is to determine the metrics of digital employment in the IT sector in the gender and territorial perspective, which can be used for monitoring the development and comprehensive assessment of the labor market in the area under consideration. We provide our own understanding of the essence of the term “digital employment”. The research was conducted by benchmarking and content analysis of information about the supply and demand of labor force in the IT sector; the information was retrieved from Russian government and commercial job search and recruitment websites (Rabota Rossii and HeadHunter). The subject of the content analysis was information about the number and composition of vacancies and resumes in the digital segment of employment in the IT sector, including vacancies containing references to remote working hours, both overall in the sample, and in the context of gender and industry. The content analysis covered vacancies and resumes in all federal districts: Central, Northwestern, Southern, North Caucasian, Volga, Ural, Siberian and Far Eastern. The results were used to calculate the structure of professional qualifications, to identify gender specifics and general trends in the development of digital employment in the IT sector, both on average in the country and in the federal districts. The analysis of information on the demands of the labor market participants in the area under consideration allowed us to conclude about the asymmetry of supply and demand. In order to assess the development of the market for professional qualifications in the IT sector, the metrics of digital employment were identified, which help to evaluate its quantitative and qualitative characteristics, including in the gender and territorial perspective. The research results can further be used in monitoring the development and comprehensive assessment of digital employment in the IT sector, and also serve as the basis for the development and implementation of state policy programs to regulate digital employment in the labor market of the IT sector.
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Assessing the efficiency of tax incentives in the system for managing regional finances
Статья научная
The paper analyzes existing techniques for assessing the effectiveness of tax incentives in the system for managing regional finances and reveals their advantages and disadvantages. It points out major conditions that determine the effectiveness of tax incentives at the regional level. The authors prove that assessing the effectiveness of tax incentives should focus, first, on identifying the relationship between the amounts of falling-out incomes and real economic benefits to the state and taxpayers that they entail; second, on determining the degree of correlation for this relationship; third, on adopting the decisions proceeding from the analysis of decisions concerning the extension of the incentive and its adjustment or possible abolition. The paper substantiates the conclusion that the effectiveness of tax incentives should be evaluated on the basis of three criteria: fiscal, economic and social. At that, the effectiveness of tax incentives at the regional level should be analyzed in several stages: calculation of budgetary, economic and social efficiency ratios; definition of the integral coefficient reflecting the total assessment of tax incentives efficiency; adoption of the decision about the appropriateness of introducing or further using the incentive, the decision being based on the calculations carried out previously...
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Статья научная
Financial behavior determines people’s engagement in economic life and is therefore critical to social, financial, and economic stability. Numerous studies conducted in Russia since the mid-1990s point out the existence of “system problems” in the financial behavior of the country’s population; the problems include moderate savings and investment activity, passive pension strategies, and a low level of financial literacy. The reasons for this situation lie not only in the “Soviet past”, or in the prevalence of paternalistic sentiments, or in the specifics of “national mentality” in relation to money, or in the limited amount of free cash that people have, or in the “blind spots” of financial legislation. It is necessary to understand that financial behavior is a complex socio-economic phenomenon, formed by the impact of many different factors. Therefore, it is important to study factors that influence the content of people’s financial behavior. The goal of the paper is to identify macroeconomic factors in people’s financial behavior; the factors that can be taken into account in the regulation of the financial sector and the social sphere...
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Статья научная
Given the orientation of Russia’s state policy toward the development of its Arctic zone, one of the major directions of socio-economic development in these territories is to modernize educational facilities and form a system of qualified personnel. Having calculated the rate of changes in the indicators, we reveal negative trends in the development of school and vocational education infrastructure in the Arctic zone of the Northern microregion; this confirms the relevance of the study. The education infrastructure, regarding its components, is understood as a set of infrastructure facilities of preschool, school and vocational education, as well as their staffing with qualified specialists. The aim of the research is to identify and assess the impact of a set of factors on the change in the education infrastructure in the Arctic zone of the Northern macroregion. We study the object of research at the mesoregional taxonomic level of spatial-territorial Arctic systems in relation to specific local communities; this increases the objectivity of our findings. The geography of the study is based on an institutional approach and includes Arctic mesoregions of the Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets Autonomous Okrug and the Komi Republic, which together form the Arctic zone of the Northern macroregion. We put forward our own methodological approach to assessing the impact of factors on social infrastructure in the Arctic zone of the Northern microregion. The approach contains a system of indicators reflecting changes in the education infrastructure and economic, demographic, spatial-territorial and socio-labor factors affecting it over the past fourteen years. We use methods of comparative analysis, systematization and grouping, statistical and correlation-regression analysis. The results of the study allow us to conclude that the influence of the factors on the education infrastructure in the Arctic zone of the Northern macroregion is differentiated depending on the nature and pace of development of the territories under consideration, state policy implemented in these territories, and other factors.
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Статья научная
The purpose of the work is to determine major features and consequences of mitigating the adverse effects of a noneconomic shock caused by the 2020-2021 coronavirus pandemic in the process of implementing the regional budget policy of RF constituent entities within a large macroregion, the Far East of Russia. We analyze the impact of the pandemic on the budget revenues of Far Eastern regions, estimate changes in the dependence of regional budgets on federal transfers. We show changes in the level of transparency in intergovernmental fiscal relations in the macroregion and the extent of autonomy of the authorities of Far Eastern constituent entities of the Russian Federation in decision-making during the crisis period in terms of the formation of regional budgets. To identify statistical patterns, we use general scientific methods based on official data from the RF Federal Treasury, the RF Ministry of Finance, and regional authorities of Russia’s Far Eastern constituent entities. We show that in the Far East, the first and second waves of the epidemic had the most significant impact on regional budgets, and the pace of overcoming the coronavirus crisis was different in various regions. Regions specializing in the manufacturing industry are recovering faster; the process is slower in mining regions. The main condition for overcoming the budget crisis was a large-scale increase in federal aid, which allowed most regions to compensate for the loss of their own budget revenues. The impact of the third and fourth waves of the coronavirus crisis on the economy of the Far East and the regional budget sphere as a whole is assessed as weak. Mining industries continued to stagnate; as a result, in the analyzed period of 2020-2021, problems related to forming the tax base were noted in the majority of mining regions. Thus, we may predict that the state of regional budgets will depend more on the transfer support from the federal center. We reveal the absence of clear criteria in the provision of transfer support to the regions. Transparency of the aid provided to RF constituent entities has deteriorated during the pandemic crisis, which may lead to the emergence of adverse factors in regional development due to the desire of regional governments to lobby for special financial preferences from the federal center. The novelty of the research is due to the fact that we consider the aforementioned range of issues while comparing federal trends and the situation in the Far East under the increasing pressure of external noneconomic shocks caused by the lingering coronavirus pandemic. The materials of the article can be used in the educational sphere and in the work of state authorities at the federal and regional levels to improve budget policy.
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Статья научная
The issues of identifying and assessing the degree of influence of various factors on child mortality become particularly relevant in the light of the reduction in the proportion of children in the population and the decline in the birth rate. The quantitative assessment of the contribution of specific factors to the risk of child mortality is a key prerequisite for the substantiation of management measures aimed at minimizing it. Despite ample evidence of the influence of economic, medical and demographic factors on people’s health, there is a shortage of works devoted to the identification of quantitative correlations of these parameters with infant mortality in the context of Russian regions and the substantiation of approaches to the application of these tools in the practice of improving the child health care system. This study presents the results of assessing the relationship between a number of economic, demographic parameters and indicators of the provision with health care resources and infant mortality. Russia’s regions have been grouped according to the level of health care resources provision (bed fund, doctors, outpatient facilities), the characteristics of the leading regions have been analyzed. The correlation analysis revealed that the greatest correlation with the indicator of infant mortality of the regional population is demonstrated by age-specific birth rates in the youngest reproductive ages (15-19 years and 20-24 years), indicators of the provision of beds for pregnant women and children. Regression analysis of panel data for Russian regions revealed quantitative relationships between the infant mortality rate, age-specific birth rates, the value of gross regional product and the health care resources provision. The results of the study may be of interest to specialists in the field of regional child health care.
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Assessing the level of happiness: a review of Russian and foreign research
Статья научная
The article presents the main results of the first phase of the study launched in 2015 by ISEDT RAS researchers and aimed at assessing subjective satisfaction with the quality of life and its impact on social development. The article shows that subjective assessment of quality of life is a criterion for assessing the efficiency of public administration, an indicator of people’s attitude toward economic, social and political decisions. The generalization of domestic and international experience serves as the basis proving that in the post-industrial economy the phenomenon of happiness is important as a goal of public administration and criterion for evaluating its effectiveness from the viewpoint of politicians, economists, sociologists and psychologists. The authors consider the main international and national indicators and ratings of happiness that help to carry out cross-country comparisons, and discuss their advantages and disadvantages. The disadvantages of index methodologies for assessing the level of happiness are as follows: the use of national averages without taking into account the uneven distribution of benefits and driving forces of spiritual and moral development of individuals; lack of opportunity to make prompt and regular calculations of the indices does not even reflect problems highlighted by partial indices...
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Assessing the level of social adaptation among young migrants in the megapolis
Статья научная
The purpose of the research is to develop a methodology for a sociological analysis. It should also be a basis for assessing the level of migrants’ social adaptation, its impact on the solution of key accommodation problems, behavior reactions, social sentiments, ideas about Russia’s adaptation strategies, personal acculturation strategies, and support for integration processes in the EAEU. The novelty of the research is the lack of a consistent theoretical model for the empirical measurement and explanation of these complex processes, as well as the necessity to study young Kyrgyzstan citizens living in Moscow as a group with the most serious adaptation difficulties, compared to migrants from other EAEU member states. The analysis of young Kyrgyzstan citizens’ adaptation in Moscow is based on basic ideas of sociological theories on adapting a person to changing social environment: social adaptation creates a conceptual field that encompasses a wide range of interaction with such phenomena as accommodation, acculturation and integration as a result of successful integration into the structures of host societies, adaptation to the norms and ideas of the majority. Methodological strategy includes structured interviews of young migrants from Kyrgyzstan who live in Moscow. We selected participants using the snowball sampling with the following criteria: Kyrgyzstan citizens, aged 17-30, who arrived in Moscow after 2015 and lived there for more than a month. Unlike our previous works that analyze certain aspects of adaptation of migrants from Kyrgyzstan in the Russian regions, the current study achieves several objectives. It creates opportunities for expanding the study on the social adaptation features of young citizens from the Kyrgyz Republic. Our research enhances the migrants’ social adaptation theory with new methodological content. This work also allows ensuring the implementation of further empirical studies on the social adaptation issues of migrants from the EAEU member states in Russia conceptually. It provides a differentiated approach to the development of adequate tools and mechanisms by social institutions in Kyrgyzstan, Russia, The Eurasian Economic Commission and creation of productive environment for social adaptation.
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Assessing the level of social development in Russia’s regions: methodological and applied aspects
Статья научная
Modern research works contain a large number of different approaches to assessing the level of socio-economic development of territories; as for the techniques that assess economic development of territories, they are not so numerous; and the techniques for assessing social development of territories are encountered even less often. We put forward our own approach to assessing the level of social development in Russia’s regions and consider population (consumer of social services) and the social sphere (subsystem of services provision) as the object of managing social development of the territory. The article proposes a technique for assessing the level of development of the territorial socio-economic system using Amartya Sen’s modified social welfare function, taking into account adjustments for the characteristics of management object components: quality of life, social infrastructure and social services. We determine adjustment factors and carry out the testing on the data for 2014-2021 in the context of Russia’s constituent entities; we form a rating of regions according to the level and specifics of social development and identify four groups of regions: “social development leaders”, “socially developing”, “socially slowing down” and “socially undeveloped” regions.
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Статья научная
The relevance of the research topic is due to the need to develop the theory and methodology of analysis, assessment of socio-demographic well-being of migration-attractive regions, as well as prospects of its changes taking into account the contribution of migrants from Armenia to the development of Russian regions. The problem that is touched upon in the study is of an urgent nature, since the modern world is very dynamic and migration processes in it are quite intense. Migrant communities, called diasporas, are forming in many countries and are beginning to influence the situation in the host country. The study presents our own approach to the study of the provision of migrants with material, social, spiritual and other benefits, examines the factors promoting the formation of the socio-economic potential of the Armenian diaspora community in Russia, assesses the current state of socio-economic well-being of migrants from Armenia, identifies the directions of development and increasing the efficiency of the use of the socio-economic potential of migrants. Special attention is paid to the analysis of the peculiarities of migration processes in Russia and Armenia as a form of economic activity of communities in foreign cultural spaces. The scientific significance of the study is due to our contribution to the theoretical understanding of the phenomenon of socio-economic well-being of migrants, enriching the theory with empirical data that allows us to define the features and stable trends of the transformation of labor migration, its impact on socio-economic processes in Russia and Armenia. We note that getting into a new social environment and trying to adapt to it, representatives of ethnic groups either occupy free zones in the national economic system, or adopt their own forms of economic activity associated with their ethno-cultural traditions.
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Статья научная
The skill level of an employee has a significant impact on the formation of employment indicators and economic development. Current scientific discussions are devoted to assessing the prospects for development of the labor market, identifying professions that will be in demand in the future and that will determine the possibilities for the development of human capital. The aim of the work is to assess the economic complexity of professional employment structure and the economic complexity of professional groups of the employed population in Russia’s regions, and to identify trends in the development of regional labor markets on this basis. The assessment of the economic complexity of the regional structure of professional employment can be considered as a characteristic of the level of human capital development, since the region’s ability to bring the develop of professional groups with high estimates of economic complexity to the level of strong ones depends on the knowledge accumulated by employees. Estimates of the economic complexity of professional employment structure in Russia’s regions and the economic complexity of professional groups were obtained according to the data for 2018, 2020 and 2021. For five professional groups, the grades of economic complexity assessments do not change over time, including those for doctors of sciences, candidates of sciences and specialists of the highest skill level. For four professional groups, the ranks change slightly - no more than by a unit. The ranks of complexity assessments change significantly for two professional groups: “managers” (the position of this professional group is improving) and “employees of the service and trade sector and protection of citizens and property” (their position is deteriorating). The ranking of the professional group “unskilled workers” is higher than the rankings of the three groups of skilled workers. The rankings of assessments of the complexity of professional groups correspond to existing opinions about the average level of human capital development among representatives of these groups of the employed population. Estimates of the economic complexity of the structure of professional employment and professional groups can be used to develop a methodology for choosing priority areas for diversifying the region’s economy.
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Статья научная
The purpose of the study is a comprehensive assessment of housing market development based on a new system of indicators reflecting the population’s solvency and demand in the housing market, the economic development of the housing market, in order to identify trends in the housing market over a long period and reveal key problems hindering the housing market development in the Northern and Arctic regions of Russia. In this paper we propose a methodology to assess the regional housing markets, analyze the indicators of economic development in the North and the Arctic, estimate people’s financial capacity and demand in the housing market, indicate major changes in the regions’ housing sector that can occur on the background of the measures applied by the state due to the coronavirus pandemic. The scientific novelty of the work is determined by a comprehensive study of regional housing markets in the Northern and Arctic regions using the indices proposed by the authors, which made it possible to formulate a number of proposals for developing the housing market in the Arctic and Northern regions of the Russian Federation. The study results can be used by the government and administrative authorities in developing policies in the field of providing the population with comfortable housing and improving the regions’ housing stock, in working out the programs aimed at housing construction, as well as by specialists in the field of finance, researchers. In the future, based on a comparative analysis of the regions’ housing development, the authors plan to predict the regional housing markets development taking into account the changing parameters of population solvency and construction industry, considering the specifics of the Federation subject’s development and the effectiveness of government measures in this sector of the economy during the crisis period of the pandemic.
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Статья научная
Global climate change is one of the most critical issues of our time. It is of vital importance to Russia, since the functioning of the country’s economy to a great extant depends on natural resources, and one of the most dangerous consequences of climate change is the depletion of natural capital. In this regard, one should take an assessment of climate-related risks. The purpose of the work is a comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate-related risks on the socio-economic development of Russia. The article determines external climate-related risks expressed in the external pressure of international treaties and trade policy, pursued by foreign countries, particularly Europe, and internal risks realized through ecosystem disbalance and biodiversity loss, epidemic outbreaks and complication of their course, deterioration of infrastructure and other fundamental structures in a large part of the country. It has been established that Russia has just begun the transition to a low-carbon development, and the feature of this process compared to other countries is a comprehensive approach that involves both greenhouse gas reduction and its absorption directly from the atmospheric air. Hydrogen economy plays a key-role in emission reduction; in order to absorb greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, it is planned to form industry for their utilization through building carbon polygons and farms. We have found that measures to reduce the country’s carbon footprint are now consistent and do not interfere with the interests of either business or government. However, the main issue, in our opinion, is the low rate of implementation of the measures taken relative to similar efforts of foreign countries, which to some extent gives foreign countries the opportunity, under the pretext of environmental policy, to influence the Russian economy and further hinder the Russian Federation in standing its ground in the international arena.
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Assessing the socio-economic potential of rural territories
Статья научная
Currently, the relevance of the research of trends and potential for rural territory development is primarily caused by increased attention of scientists and public authorities to spatial topics. In 2019, the Spatial Development Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 and the new State Program of the Russian Federation “Integrated Rural Development” were adopted. In this regard, the article's aim is to develop a methodological approach to assessing the socio-economic potential of rural territories and, based on its approbation, to determine priority areas for ensuring their integrated and sustainable development. To achieve this goal, the authors use such scientific methods as economic, statistical, and comparative analysis, methods of generalization, analysis, synthesis, as well as the monographic method. The scientific novelty of the research is the proposed method of socio-economic potential measurement (with scoring) of rural territories. This method makes it possible to classify them by the level of potential development to justify the priorities of regional and local socio-economic policies for different types of territories. The authors have drawn the following conclusions: key development problems of rural territories of Russia, and Russian North in particular, are unfavorable demographic conditions; a low level of accomplished housing with all kinds of amenities (the national average is that only a third of the Fund is improved); a high share of population (for example, 40% of the Nenets Autonomous Okrug, and 45% of the Vologda Oblast) that is provided with poor-quality drinking water; a noticeable lag of rural population's income in comparison with urban citizens' incomes. Moreover, most municipal districts of the Vologda Oblast (14 out of 26) are characterized by the average potential level of their rural territories. The materials of the article can be used by the authorities and serve as a basis for further scientific research on this topic.
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Assessment and strategy of coal resources development of the Komi Republic
Статья научная
The article deals with the problems of little-developed and sparsely populated areas of the northern region on the example of the Komi Republic, the typology of regions based on their industrial development is made, regional differences of the state’s northern policy are marked, the role of coal in the energy supply of the country is shown, the prospects of forming a new center of coal mining in the north-west Russia based on the Seydinskoyecoal deposit areevaluated.
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