Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1745
Development of Russia's agriculture as a factor promoting the solution of the world food problem
Статья научная
The article reviews the current state and causes of the global food problem. It characterizes the measures of governmental support to the development of agriculture in Russia in 2008 - 2011. It also states the possibilities of increasing agricultural production output by using the potential of the country’s Northern regions provided that technical and technological modernization will be carried out. The article identifies the main priorities of Russia’s agricultural policy and related activities that will enhance exports of food on the world markets.
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Статья научная
The paper proposes our own methodological approach based on the data of financial statements of agricultural organizations and allowing us to assess the impact of taxation regimes on the results of their activities. The subject of the study is the system of statistical indicators of agricultural organizations characterizing the level of economic production. The aim of the work is to substantiate the architecture of the tax incentive system for the industry, as well as to design further directions for the development of tax support for agriculture. Research methods include typical grouping, machine learning models (decision tree, random forest and gradient boosting). As a result, the methodological approach was tested and significant differences in the performance indicators of agricultural organizations depending on the choice of taxation systems were substantiated, and net profit forecasting models were built for each of them. The constructed models allow us to identify the nature of the influence of tax factors on the performance of agricultural entities. Recommendations for improving the system of tax incentives for the industry are presented. The developed methodological approach helps to assess the differences in taxation systems using the grouping method and machine learning methods, as well as to build high-quality forecasting models. The scientific novelty of the study consists in developing a set of proposals for improving tax incentives for the industry, taking into account (1) the optimal architecture of the tax support system at the macro level and (2) systemic problems of applying industry tax incentives at the micro level. Proof of the optimality of the architecture of the tax incentive system for agriculture was revealed using our methodology for assessing the impact of the tax regime on the performance indicators of agricultural producers, based on the use of machine learning methods
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Статья научная
This study includes development of a methodology of forming anti-crisis management strategy directly for a wholesale trade organization. The solution of this problem is urgent today as Russian and world literature reflects experience of anti-crisis management only in the industry. The study formulates and systemizes factors that give impetus to development of an organization in the crisis and which are the basis of the proposed methodology. Risks associated with realization of the anti-crisis management methodology are also taken into consideration. The study conclusions are made.
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Development of a new technological paradigm in the arctic regions in 1990-2021
Статья научная
Research on the evolution of technological paradigms in various countries should be continued at the level of regions and municipalities. The article fills the gap, as its purpose is to study the formation of a new technological paradigm in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. We identified the chronology of the new technological paradigm deployment in the Russian Arctic over the past three decades; explained the reasons for making Nenets Autonomous Okrug a pilot site for technological, organizational, institutional experiments and innovations in the Arctic zone; we characterized factors impeding and promoting the formation of a new technological paradigm in the Murmansk Oblast. We determined the methods of research (system-wide approach, retrospective, cartographic, comparative, structural analysis) depending on the chosen theoretical and methodological framework: the theory of techno-economic paradigms, the theory for economic development of the North and the Arctic, the concept of evolutionary economic geography. As a result, we have identified and characterized five stages in the formation of a new technological paradigm in the Arctic in 1990-2021. We use the data on Nenets Autonomous Okrug to show the favorable role of small and medium-sized natural assets and the organizational diversity of extractive companies, an active policy of the regional government that pursues the principles of constructive duality at the first stage of the formation of the new technological paradigm. We also consider the data on the Murmansk Oblast to show the role of the resource monopoly of local large mining enterprises in inhibiting the entry of new actors and the deployment of new projects in the mining development of the region. We conclude that the formation of the new technological paradigm in the Arctic regions is characterized by significant unevenness (asynchrony): the susceptibility of the Arctic territory to the arrival of new actors, technologies and institutions is determined by the age of the resource province, type of natural resource, size and forms of location of the main deposits. The most important task for future research is to study optimal forms of state influence on the development of a new way of life in the territories of the Arctic with tools and institutions of active industrial policy at the federal, regional and municipal level.
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Development of entrepreneurship in the region: drivers and problems
Статья научная
The paper examines drivers of entrepreneurship development in the region on the example of Ural Federal District regions. The goal of the research is to identify drivers of and problems in the development of entrepreneurship in the region. We use theoretical, logical, statistical, analytical, and index methods. Scientific novelty of the study lies in the fact that it considers global experience of research entrepreneurship as applied to the level of region, identifies sets of factors that promote the development of entrepreneurship in the Tyumen Oblast, and assesses their impact on the level of entrepreneurship development. The paper also considers problems in the development of entrepreneurship in the Tyumen Oblast. We propose indicators that assess implementation efficiency of regional (state) programs for entrepreneurship support. We carry out a comparative analysis of some aspects of governmental support provided to small business in some countries. By 2016, Russia has made a breakthrough and improved economic environment for doing business, but there has been a decline in institutional environment indicators...
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Development of green business as an approach to financing the greening of economy
Статья научная
The issues of green economy development are in the focus of attention of Russian and foreign scientists. Its formation was influenced by environmental activities financing sources. The article presents the description of budgetary and extra-budgetary environmental protection financing. Special attention is paid to the need to strengthen private financial support of environmentally determined activities, which can be implemented as part of development of ecopreneurship. The purpose of this article is to identify the trends in budgetary and extra-budgetary environmental protection financing and resource conservation in the Russian Federation and to rationalize theoretically the necessity of business participation in financing of environment-related business ideas, which is aimed at supporting the greening of economic activity at the regional level. The methods of empirical and statistical research, systematization and generalization of information have been used. SWOT analysis has identified the strengths and weaknesses of green business, as well as the opportunities for and threats to its development...
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Development of growth poles in the Russian Federation: direct and reverse effects
Статья научная
The understanding of economic polarization as one of the possible sources of economic development is rooted in a number of scientific papers and in strategic planning documents. This understanding requires the revision of the implications that emerge due to the formation and development of growth poles. The goal of our present research is to develop an approach that will help assess the impact of growth poles on the surrounding space. Scientific novelty of the work consists in the justification of an approach to the identification of direct and reverse effects of the development of growth poles, which allows us to measure the scale of the impact they have on the territories concentrated around. Theoretical and methodological basis of the study is formed by a set of scientific ideas in the field of regional economics, spatial analysis and modeling. Using the assessment of spatial autocorrelation (by determining the values of Moran's Global Index and Moran's Local Index) and the implementation of cartographic analysis, we assess the relationships between individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation according to the resulting parameters of territory development such as “permanent population” and “gross regional product”. According to the calculations we prove that the influence of growth poles on the surrounding space is ambiguous: the territories located near large-scale socio-economic systems do not receive a significant impetus to their own development; moreover, they lose the resources they already have. The revealed pronounced reverse effect of economic polarization determines the importance of applying a balanced approach to the use of growth poles as a tool of economic development. The results of our research can be used in the work of public authorities at different levels and can also form the basis for further studies related to the measurement of the effects of development of growth poles and the development of priorities and mechanisms of regional policy, taking into account the interests of the territories that surround them.
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Development of health economics for improving the quality of life
Статья научная
The article deals with the developmental problems of public health in Russia as a key factor of improving the quality of life and providing the high efficiency of domestic economy. It shows the dynamics of main health indicators in the last two decades. Economic and organizational, social and cultural reasons for Russia’s lagging behind the developed countries in terms of public health are characterized in the article. It focuses on the essential territorial differentiation of public health standards in the country and represents the specific indicators of these differences for federal districts, which allow us to see the complexity and volume of health problems. The main ways and directions of progressive public health development in Russia are indicated in the article.
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Development of inland waterway transport in Russia and the experience of China
Статья научная
In Soviet times, inland waterway transport played a decisive role in the exploration of the country’s remote areas. The year 1985 witnessed the peak of its development, when the world’s highest volume indicators were achieved. Currently, China is the world leader in this sector, having managed to transform inland waterway transport from an inconspicuous economic sector into a dynamically developing means of transport within 45 years. China’s achievements deserve attention, especially in terms of the scale and speed of the process. While Russia and China differ significantly in population density, production volumes, and seasonality of water transport, they have certain similar characteristics as well (vastness of territory, length and configuration of inland waterways, possibility to reach poorly developed areas). The article identifies four stages in the development of inland waterway transport, differing in goals, objectives, financing mechanisms and tools for the implementation of development goals set for a specific stage. It is shown that the development of inland waterway transport in the Russian Federation is determined by the complex economic and geographical characteristics of the country and by accumulated system-wide problems in the development of the sector. The latter include insufficient financing of inland waterways; shortage of modern vessels; low investment attractiveness and insufficient investment in the industry; poor interaction with other means of transport, which deprives inland waterway transport of part of the cargo base; shortage of modern transshipment complexes; outflow of skilled personnel from the industry. In order for the Russian inland waterway transport to regain its influence on the country’s territorial development, it is necessary to use China’s experience in organizing financing projects in this area, developing a training system, and combating interspecific competition in transport. Scientific significance of the study lies in the theoretical analysis and comparative assessment of the level of development of inland waterway transport in Russia and China. Proposals for addressing the accumulated problems of Russian river transport based on the use of China’s experience in promoting the activities of inland waterway transport are of practical importance.
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Development of marriage and family relationships in the northern regions of Russia
Статья научная
The article deals with the mechanism of modern demographic development in Russia’s northern regions. The article studies the dynamics of marriage processes in the North in the post-war period, and reveals the current specifics of marriage and family relations. The authors analyze in more detail the situation in the two big northern republics: the Komi Republic and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). They identify factors that determined a significant decrease of marriage rate in the 1990s and the relative normalization of marital and family processes in recent years. The article outlines the main directions of demographic policies in the northern regions.
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Статья научная
The relevance of the study is due to the fact that the process of import substitution, which is on the rise in the country, requires a reliable and accurate quantitative assessment of its effectiveness. The main idea of the study is to assess the effectiveness of import substitution as a complex multidimensional phenomenon characterized by multidirectional and contradictory dynamics of its processes in their unity, relationship and mutual influence. The goal of the study is to develop a method for integrated assessment of import substitution effectiveness on the basis of theoretical substantiation of its principles and provisions. To achieve the goal we use such methods as analysis and generalization of existing methodological approaches to its assessment. The hypothesis of the study is based on the fact that the method we have developed allows us not only to make a reliable assessment of the effectiveness of import substitution, but also to predict the directions of its increase. Our research develops the works of other authors in the field of integrated assessment of import substitution effectiveness: we elaborate a comprehensive system of target performance indicators (the system has not been used before) and assess the trends in the development of import substitution processes structured in the context of domestic production, export and import of goods subject to import substitution, according to the degree of achievement of these indicators. The study was carried out with the use of methods such as factor determinant and structural-dynamic analysis, and multi-criteria optimization method. The technique was tested on the example of food products - the flagship of domestic import substitution. We reveal the processes that hinder import substitution in the food industry and some positive trends in import substitution that confirm its effectiveness. We calculate an optimal structure of commodity resources, which ensures the achievement of import substitution effectiveness in the food industry to the fullest extent. It is advisable to apply our technique in the field of import substitution in individual commodity groups, each of which has its own features in the formation of imports, exports, domestic production and their specifics in the context of research tasks. We plan to continue our research in the development of methods for a comprehensive assessment of the impact of import substitution on economic growth in the country.
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Статья научная
Nowadays the management of resources allocated to science depends directly on the availability of information about the state of scientific research in the country and abroad. Due to the increasing number of research projects that receive public funding and that are carried out with the support from various funds, special importance is attached to the issue concerning the analysis and comprehensive evaluation of scientific research performance and the choice of the most promising research topics. The article substantiates the necessity to develop a national information and analytical system of citation, which should become part of the system to assess the effectiveness and performance of Russian scientists and scientific organizations. The author uses the analysis of bibliometric indicators of the Russian Science Citation Index and shows the evolution of publication activity of organizations engaged in economic research and subordinate to the Federal Agency of Scientific Organizations of Russia...
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Статья научная
Regional economic processes determine the scale of functioning and performance of small and medium-sized enterprises due to their specific involvement in the economy of a territorial entity and quick response to changes in the external environment. The unevenness and high differentiation of economic development in the territories determine the heterogeneity and differences in the level of entrepreneurship development in Russia. In this regard, the aim of our study is to arrange Russian regions into clusters according to indicators reflecting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and macroeconomic parameters characterizing the economic environment of their functioning, which either acts as a driving force or creates obstacles. The novelty of the approach consists not only in the fact that it integrates enterprises’ development indicators and indicators of the external economic environment of their functioning into the clustering parameters, but also in the formation of final clusters, taking into account the grouping of regions for each year of the period under consideration. This makes it possible to determine the stability of the territory in the group or to track the movement between groups. The k-means method is chosen for clustering. Clustering was carried out according to Federal State Statistics Service data from 2015 to 2021 in 85 regions of Russia. Five clusters have been obtained, whose features confirm the assumption that the development of small and medium-sized enterprises is determined by the economic development of the territory as an external environment of their functioning. Nevertheless, a special second cluster was identified, with the presence of restrictions on the use of the potential of the economic environment, which includes regions that differ in the average level of development of small and medium-sized enterprises against the background of high economic development. The results obtained can be used in the elaboration and implementation of policies to improve the sphere of small and medium-sized businesses at the level of the state as a whole and at the level of a particular region. Further development of our findings may consist in changing indicators or including other clustering algorithms, further typologizing regions or conducting correlation and regression analysis within individual clusters.
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Статья научная
The article represents the statistical data on the development of small business in subjects of North-West federal district for the period of 2003 - 2008. The results of the comparative analysis of the region’s achievements on such indicators as quantity of the registered small enterprises per 100 thousand inhabitants, employment of workers on small enterprises, volumes of production output at small enterprises, investments in fixed capital at small enterprises are given.
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Development of small cities: from individual trajectories to strategic planning
Статья научная
The relevance of the study is due to increased attention to small cities and improving the quality of life, which is directly related to the strategic planning of small cities development, taking into account individual features. However, small cities in Russia are characterized by negative trends in the social and economic spheres. The aim of the study is to identify key areas of small cities development strategies, taking into account individual trajectories identified on the basis of expert assessments. The city of Kostomuksha of the Republic of Karelia, which is the administrative center of Kostomukshsky Urban Okrug, was chosen as the object of research. We use qualitative sociology methods, namely, the results of an expert focus group and individual interviews with representatives of government, business and non-profit organizations. We reveal problems in the social sphere typical for the city of Kostomuksha and for small cities in general: low level of accessibility of education and healthcare services, including personnel in these areas, migration outflow of young people, lack of renovation of housing stock. Regarding the stakeholders of territorial transformations, we find out that the main feature of Kostomuksha is predominant participation of large socially oriented businesses in addressing urban problems with rather weak participation of citizens. As a result of the research, we have identified new individual development trajectories: sports and wellness tourism, which must be taken into account in the development strategy of Kostomuksha. We conclude that it is necessary to design strategies for the development of territories, taking into account the opinions and activity of local communities, opportunities for collaboration of various actors in addressing social issues of small cities. The novelty of the research lies in expanding the methodological approach to strategic planning for small cities development using original tools of qualitative sociology - expert assessments of stakeholders in territorial development.
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Статья научная
Due to the growing global socio-economic and environmental challenges (population ageing, climate change, society polarization, etc.), there is a revaluation of a position and role of innovations in overcoming threats to social development in the modern world. Researchers note a shift in the innovation paradigm toward social innovation, since it is assumed that it is not possible to achieve a drastic improvement of the situation solely through technological innovations. At the same time, many existing problems cannot be solved with efforts of a single actor - intersectoral cooperation becomes a necessity. This aspect is of key importance for development of social innovation. The purpose of the study was to analyze development of social innovations in the Russian Federation based on an actor approach, which involves an overview of this phenomenon through the prism of activities of various entities and their interaction. General scientific methods were used in the study: discourse analysis, generalization, comparison, etc. Essential foundations and the role of social innovations in solving current society’s problems are presented. Using the example of government structures, big business, and civil society, the authors explore the features of social innovation development in Russia. It is shown that development of social innovations depends on their interpretation in public discourse, involvement in strategies of various actors, and intersectoral cooperation in the innovation process. In conclusion, the prospects for development of studied phenomenon are determined within identified trends and the specifics of interconnections between designated actors. The results obtained may be used not only as an empirical basis for further research, but they may also represent practical significance in development of specific management decisions in this area.
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Development of state and small-business partnership in a region's innovation sector
Статья научная
The strategic goals of innovation development of the Russian Federation and problems of development of small and medium businesses require the study of the mechanisms of successful cooperation between the state and small businesses, including public-private partnership (PPP). The article considers promising mechanisms for innovative development of the Russian economy in the framework of PPP, with the participation of small businesses. The hypothesis is presented by the thesis that small business has a high innovation potential and exceptional opportunities for its implementation in PPP projects. This thesis is confirmed by the analysis and synthesis of a number of scientific theories. The purpose of the study is to clarify the nature and areas of partnership between the state and small business in innovation and development of proposals to improve their cooperation according to the PPP principles. The methodological basis of the study includes the systematic approach, methods of structural, concept, functional and statistical analysis, the method of expert evaluations...
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Development of the economic space of Russia's regions on the basis of cluster principles
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Статья научная
The paper considers institutional changes in the sphere of procurement of goods, works and services for public purposes. The goal of the paper is to develop a new conceptual approach to the formation of an institutional model for the contract procurement system. It is shown that basic concepts of the current model of contract system remain outside the framework of the universally binding and formally defined categories in conditions of legal regulation instability. We formulate the task of systematizing the set of concepts and definitions in order to separate and differentiate individual segments of the procurement market. In order to implement this task we analyze fundamental definitions contained in legislative acts of international organizations and countries, review key approaches and principles, and highlight specific national features of procurement regulations. We draw attention to the fact that the greatest volume of purchases is observed in the public sector. In the process of our research we use a method of normalized weighted average indicators to calculate an integral index that characterizes the scale of the public sector and also to obtain expert assessment of the extent of procurement control...
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