Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1709
Differences in Fertility and Reproductive Behavior Indicators
Статья научная
The search for the reasons that determine birth rate dynamics remains relevant from the practical and theoretical viewpoints. The aim of our research is to assess whether Russia’s population complies with the stable population model in terms of stability of sex structure. We make an attempt to calculate and assess reproduction indicators for male population. Having revealed that such calculations have methodological limitations, we propose a way to overcome them. According to calculations, in 2019 in Russia, the total fertility rate for women (1.504) was 9.1% higher than for men (1.378). The difference in the gross reproduction rate was 3.1% (0.730 for women and 0.708 for men), in the net reproduction rate – 6.0% (0.719 for women, 0.678 for men). The difference in the value of the rate of natural increase in women and men is 5.0% (-11.5 and -12.1%, respectively). Due to the presence of two quantitatively different reproduction modes in the female and male generations, we doubt it would be possible to implement a stable population model. The age-related model of fertility in men, as well as in women, is shifting toward older ages (in the groups aged 25–29 and 30–34). The average age when men become fathers has also increased: from 31.51 years in 2011 to 32.40 in 2019. We also analyze the fertility rate model according to the age of the mother and father. We have determined that in most cases (70% in 2019) the father is older than the mother, in 19% of cases the mother is older than the father, in 11% – both parents are of the same age. Fathers are 1–4 years older than mothers in 44–64% of cases (depending on the age of the mother). It is noteworthy that the difference in the age of parents is higher when children are born out of wedlock. In the future, we find it interesting to study gender-related differences in reproductive motivation and other determinants of male and female fertility.
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Статья научная
Kazakhstan is characterized by significant interregional differences in the provision with natural resources and economic capacity; this feature is reflected in the level of economic development, provision with social infrastructure, and investment opportunities. Specifics of spatial development in Kazakhstan, different potential of its individual territories, differences in the structure and specialization of economic entities, ambiguity in the severity and depth of the crisis processes in the years of market reforms, the pace and forms of their implementation put the regions of our country in unequal conditions that aggravated their differentiation. That is why the Address of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev to the People of Kazakhstan “The Strategy “Kazakhstan 2050”: New Political Course of the Established State” sets out a very timely task of aligning the socio-economic conditions in the regions and forming new effective mechanisms of its implementation...
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Digital civic participation in the context of modern research
Статья научная
The emergence and development of digital civic participation is an inevitable consequence of Internet penetration into various spheres of life. Despite the novelty of the phenomenon itself, the practices of online activism have become engrained in public life; and they have a significant impact on certain events, and sometimes even act as the main trigger of subsequent changes, which is especially typical of the political system. At the same time, there are many concerns related to the spread of digital civics, so that it is very difficult to talk about the long-term implications of such transformations. In this regard, the purpose of our research is to summarize the experience of studying digital civic participation and highlight the features of its manifestation in a modern world. The research methodology is based on the principles of making a systematic scientific review. During the analysis, we identify essential foundations and distinctive features of online activism compared to the traditional offline format, which are reflected in the forms of manifestation, methods of attracting and composition of the participants themselves, as well as the conditions necessary for collective action. The scope of digital civic participation is largely ensured by the ease of entry into public affairs, and the variability of activities and types of networking. Despite the prevalence of the thesis about the purely external visibility of online activism and its destructive consequences, specific empirical studies do not confirm this conclusion. Nevertheless, the threats of the spread of ICT are quite real and go far beyond the virtual space. In conclusion, we formulate several polemic provisions on possible ways to overcome the contradictions in this area. Our research contributes to the development of scientific ideas about the specifics of digital civic participation and the disclosure of the potential of its application from the standpoint of modern challenges and threats.
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Digital inequality between urban and rural population
Статья научная
Digitalization can transform social inequality between urban and rural population into a digital divide. This issue in the “city-village” context is not given due attention by scholars and is mainly limited to the country level. Interregional inequality in scientific publications is considered, as a rule, outside of this context. The study seeks to eliminate this gap. The aim is to identify features, trends and quantitative parameters of digital inequality (divide) between urban and rural population at the national and interregional level and identify ways to address the issues that arise. The tasks are to establish trends in the formation of a digital divide in the levels of Internet access and digital competence of users, in obtaining state and municipal services and ordering goods/services; to assess the reasons for the rural population's refusal to use the Internet and identify ways to solve this problem. The study was based on a combination of calculation of coefficients ofvariation and grouping of regions. We used the data of the federal statistical observation.
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Digitalization and the development of a “smart” society: the logic and practice of management
Статья научная
The rapid spread of new technologies in all areas of activity leads to quick and profound changes in the structure of industrial production, global markets, and the economic and social sphere. The potential of information and communication technologies, accumulated by the 21st century, causes significant changes in the functioning of economic systems at different levels, from the global economy to individual economic entities; informatization and digitalization are the most important factors of economic growth. Under their influence, there is a transition from the introduction of individual digital technologies to the complex construction of a digital ecosystem. The rapid development of digital technologies has led to a model of society in which the real world and virtual space interact, a value orientation that combines big data algorithms with small data mining is emerging, a scenario spanning two opposing modes of decentralization and centralization is constructing, and different governance logics are emerging in which rule management and code-based regulation complement each other. This logic of governance has been put into practice in the process of social construction, creating an open and secure digital ecosystem, a collaborative multi-managerial circle and an inclusive dividend distribution circle, enriching the connotation of “co-building, co-managing and sharing”, thereby laying the scientific and technical foundation for modernizing the national governance system and management capacity. The aim of our work is to comprehend the concept, the essence of the term “smart society” in its relationship with the phenomenon of the economy digitalization and studying the practice of management of development of such a society. The scientific novelty and originality of the research is reflected in the development of theoretical and methodological approaches and conceptual apparatus of studying the essence of “smart society” in the context of the economy digitalization; in the development of scientific and methodological foundations of a comprehensive assessment of the state, development trends of “smart” society in the Russian Federation and China; in the formation of a set of practical measures and a list of indicators characterizing the development of “smart” society.
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Статья научная
Rapid introduction and spread of digital technology in all spheres of life have lead to changes in the economy and society. Digitalization seems to be one of the promising directions in terms of addressing economic, environmental and social issues related to the development of territories, including small and medium-sized cities. However, scientific literature has not paid sufficient attention to the digital transformation of such settlements and their territorial specifics. The aim of our work is to study trends and prospects related to the digitalization of small and medium-sized cities in the European North of Russia. We present a number of indicators characterizing the basic conditions for the development of digital technology in the region. We analyze the extent of penetration of digital services in small and medium-sized cities of the European North of Russia and identify the presence of a developed online trading infrastructure alongside a relatively low level of distribution of services. Main barriers to the digitalization of small and medium-sized cities are high cost of developing and implementing digital technologies and services, lack of funding, and a low level of digital competencies in the population. We propose solutions to the above problems and put forward some conceptual provisions determining the choice of priority areas of digitalization to achieve the sustainable development goals in northern small and medium-sized cities. We focus our attention on the importance of taking into account not only the opportunities, but also the risks of digitalization; the expediency of choosing priority areas of digitalization of the economy for various types of cities; the need to introduce digital technology to address social and environmental issues. The findings of our study may be useful to the public authorities of RF constituent entities in finalizing regional strategies on digital transformation of economic sectors, social sphere and public administration.
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Distance learning for gifted schoolchildren: problems and prospects
Статья научная
The article dwells on the problems concerning the formation of a regional system of distance education for gifted schoolchildren. It presents the experience in distance learning of the gifted schoolchildren of the Vologda Oblast at the Centre for distance education of the Vologda Multi-Discipline Lyceum. The most promising directions of the e-learning development are considered.
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Diversification and small business as the factor of economic development
Статья научная
The article considers the opportunities of diversification and small business in assistance of economic development reveal. The comparative analysis of a condition of development of small business in subjects NWFD the Russian Federation is resulted.
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Diversification way of oil-and-gas producing region
Статья научная
In the given article the author carries out the analysis of the oil production condition in the Russian Federation and in its major oil-production region - Khanty-Mansiysk autonomous okrug - UGRA. The oil-production branch of Russia strongly depends on the economical situation in KhМАО-UGRA. Any mistake in the strategy of mineral resources base development and the production strategy in UGRA region seriously affects the economy of Russia in a whole. The author made a review of the influence of the world financial crisis on the economy of KhМАО-UGRA. Reasons of the economy recession in the oil and gas production region and ways out of the negative dynamics are specified.
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Domestic tourism development in a region
Статья научная
Tourism is a sector which has a significant impact on the socio-economic development of territories. This type of national economic activity is characterized by a multiplier effect, generating incomes in related economic sectors. Among all types of tourism, the key role belongs to domestic tourism as the main source of income from tourist activities. Russian regions, domestic tourism is poorly developed due to imperfect infrastructure of the sector, lack of correlation between prices for tourism products and their quality, and lack of qualified personnel. In recent years, external factors are of particular significance for this sector; they include turbulent geopolitical situation in some countries, crisis phenomena in the economy, ban on travelling to popular foreign resorts for Russian citizens. The issues of domestic tourism development are reflected in works by D.R. Makeeva, E.V. Semenova, N.V. Maslova, L.I. Chernikova, G.R. Faizov. The purpose for the research is to study directions for domestic tourism development in the region taking into account the influence of external factors...
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Drivers of Economic Growth of the Nizhny Novgorod Region: Modeling GRP Using Data from Twin Regions
Статья научная
Identification of development trends and growth potential of Russian regions in the new conditions requires the elaboration of advanced approaches to modeling the main economic indicators. The aim of the article is to carry out an econometric modeling and analysis of the GRP of the Nizhny Novgorod Region using data from twin regions. The selection of twin regions was based on the similarity of industry structures, level of development and trends. Using panel data for 16 regions of the Nizhny Novgorod Region cluster for 2000-2023, the Cobb - Douglas functions with lagged variables were constructed, estimated by the maximum likelihood method with correction for group heteroscedasticity. As a result of the modeling, a positive influence of supply factors (accumulated fixed assets, current investments, number of employees), demand factors (income per capita in the past period) on the current GRP was established. The scale and structure of budget expenditures of the region also play an important role in increasing the GRP in the cluster under consideration. The average annual key interest rate of the Bank of Russia, as well as its change, have a negative impact on the GRP. In addition, the GRP of the cluster regions is positively related to the price of Brent crude oil, which indicates the historical dependence of the Russian economy on the oil sector, and the dollar to ruble exchange rate, which affects the price component of the GRP through the pass-through effect, as well as import substitution processes. The obtained results can be the basis for designing forecasts and scenarios for the development of the region in the future, determining the consequences of regulatory impacts at the regional level and the effects of uncontrolled macroeconomic parameters. Further development of the study is possible through the inclusion of high-frequency data, the elaboration of models with more advanced specifications, including structured and aggregated ones, as well as separate modeling of the inflationary and real components of GRP, which together will allow for the creation of more accurate short-term forecasts
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Drivers of concentration of economic activity in Russia's regions
Статья научная
The uneven distribution of economic activity in Russia promotes the differentiation of its constituent entities by level of development. Regions are independent participants of economic relations, and they often act as competitors rather than partners. Agglomeration effects arise in more successful regions and contribute to the concentration of resources, manufacturing enterprises, service providers, skilled workers, and scientific and technological knowledge. The aim of the study, the results of which are reflected in the paper, is to identify the factors and assess their impact on the concentration (dispersion) of economic activity on the basis of Russia's regions. The paper describes the benefits of agglomeration processes from the standpoint of economic geography, allocation theory and international trade theory. The concentration of economic activity in Russia's regions is estimated by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index of industrial production taking into consideration the volume of investments in fixed capital and the number of people employed in the economy in Russia's regions in 1990-2013...
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Статья научная
The study examines for the first time the influence of the spatial interaction effects of socioeconomic factors on the entrepreneurship development in the regions. This effect was assessed by constructing a set of spatial models on panel data for 2011-2019. The need to take into account spatial interaction is due to the calculated Moran’s index, as well as the statistical significance of the spatial autoregressive coefficient. In the work, we have built the following models: spatial lag model, spatial error model, spatial lag and spatial error model, Durbin model, and panel regression. The purpose of the simulation is to assess the role of the spatial factor in the entrepreneurship development in Russia’s regions. As a result, we have proposed a system of indicators of entrepreneurial activity, selected the most informative indicators, determined the influence of factors of entrepreneurial activity taking into account and without a spatial lag of dependent and independent variables, and evaluated spatial effects (direct, indirect, general). The article shows that the influence of wages and the unemployment rate on the change in entrepreneurial activity is much greater if spatial interactions are taken into account. The scientific novelty of the research lies in determining the degree and direction of the influence of spatial effects that have an impact on entrepreneurial activity and its factors. The results confirm the importance of using not only regional characteristics, but also spatial and temporal dependencies in the analysis of entrepreneurial activity. We expect that the research results will provide practical information to authorities and administrations seeking to promote the entrepreneurship development at the national level.
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Dynamics and age structure of migration flows of Far Eastern regions
Статья научная
Migration has long been the main reason for population decline in the Russian Far East. Taking into account a large number of methods and approaches to the analysis and assessment of population migration, we put forward an original methodology for assessing the parameters of population migration between pairs of regions of the Far East. Our methodology for estimating the number of migrants uses the method of age shifting (the component method) together with elements of the method of migration movement balance. In contrast to existing approaches to assessing migration mobility, our approach helps to obtain minimum migration values with a certain range of possible values that guarantee the preservation of population balance. Of particular interest is assessment of migration by age group in the COVID and post-COVID period. A comparative analysis of migration balance data based on official statistics and the values obtained by own calculations reveal a number of anomalies and tampering with official information on population number, birth rate and mortality in children and adolescents under 15 years of age. We reveal an overestimation of the number of newborns in 2018-2021 in five regions of the Far East. In the pandemic years (2020-2021) we observe a small migration increase for population groups aged 17-19 and 20-29 from regions outside the Far East. Migration growth in the three leading regions (the Khabarovsk and Primorye territories and the Republic of Sakha) has age-specific features and changes over time
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Dynamics and structure of the Russia's population in the future
Статья научная
In the article the author is giving probable variants of Russia’s demographic development on the basis of the analysis of the statistical and sociological researches’ data.
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Статья научная
The chemical industry in Russia is of great importance for industrial production, agriculture and the consumer sector. This industry in the Russian Federation has a rather low share in GDP (less than 2%), and produces goods with relatively low added value: mineral fertilizers, nitrogen compounds, plastics, synthetic resins and rubbers. The chemical industry is characterized by imports consistently prevailing over exports. Thus, for 2013-2020 average excess of imports over exports in value terms was 62.6% or 16.3 billion US dollars. Mineral fertilizers occupy a key share (44.1%) in the structure of chemical exports, producing revenues of about 64.2 billion US dollars over eight years. While the bulk of imports fell on pharmaceutical products (39.2%) with a total volume of purchases amounting to 91.2 billion US dollars. Significant reduction in the average cost of an export ton of chemical products by 40% to 324 US dollars became a negative trend in foreign trade. The aim of the work is to identify key trends in foreign trade in Russian chemical industry products, which will become an information and analytical base to work out and adopt strategic decisions aimed at the development of the industry based on the principles of import substitution and deepening processing. The object is the relations that arise between the Russian Federation and foreign countries regarding export and import of chemical products. We use methods such as comparative, dynamic and specific weight analysis, and systematization. The information base includes data from the Federal Customs Service on export-import activities of the Russian chemical industry; Russian and foreign literature on the functioning of the industry under sanctions; data from information, news and analytical agencies.
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Dynamics of investment in fixed capital in the economy of the northern regions
Статья научная
The article describes characteristics and trends of investment in fixed capital of the Northern regions. It singles out phases of rapid pre-crisis growth, crisis, post-crisis growth and stagnation. Stagnation and decline in recent years are caused by completed major investment projects, reduced own funds of enterprises, limited availability of investment resources and increased capital outflow. The article reveals that the growth of investment in fixed capital of the North in the post-crisis period is provided by the regions, carrying out major investment in oil and gas pipeline transport, oil extraction, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water. The changes in the sectoral structure of investment in fixed capital of the Northern regions are barely visible; the share of investment in the traded sector is still high, especially in mining, due to the Northern regions’ specialization in the extractive industries. The share of investment in the public sector and social services remains low...
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Dynamics of mortality in Russia in the context of the epidemiologic transition concept
Статья научная
The article briefly presents a modern view on the concept of epidemiologic transition, reflects features of its course in Russia: a lag of the main stages compared to the developed countries of the world and Europe, implementation of accelerated transition, layering of unresolved problems of previous phases. The author considers half-century dynamics of mortality of the Russian population in comparison with the world average and indicators of some developed countries, demonstrating its backlog, despite the overall positive trend. The work confirms persistence of high mortality of the Russian working-age population; presents calculations of demographic, socio-economic losses from premature deaths of citizens of this cohort. It states that external causes of death bring the largest demographic and socio-economic damage in the country and in the region: in Russia they account for 35% of all losses in PYLL and 2.45% of the total volume of GRP and 27 in the Vologda Oblast - 27% of all losses in PYLL and 2.7% of the total GRP...
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Dynamics of reading habits of modern Russian students: a sociological analysis
Статья научная
The features of reading habits and their transformation are the subject of interdisciplinary scientific analysis, as well as of a broad public discussion about the effective response of the Russian state to the challenges of a technogenic society. The areas of sociological reflection on this phenomenon are quite broad, such as the reading crisis, interest in books, the impact of globalization, e-books and other electronic formats for reading. Sociological analysis allows finding answers to questions about the state and features of reading habits as a component of social capital, the social quality of specific geographical, social and demographic groups. Bookishness (love and respect for books) is an important feature of the Russian mentality, an indicator of socio-cultural continuity, which is why the study of reading habits of modern Russian students' culture acquires particular relevance. This article presents the results of a sociological research conducted in Astrakhan and Volgograd (2016, 2019), as well as in Moscow (2019). These empirical studies provide insights into the main trends in the dynamics of the reading habits of modern Russian students, and help to conduct a comparative analysis of these habits of Russian cities' students, among other things in terms of socio-cultural space levels (the “core - periphery” coordinate system). We identified the dominance of the axiological component of reading habits; determined that classical literature is the basis of the content structure of reading; noted that the frequency of reading habits falls with decreasing population of the settlement - people read more in Moscow, less in the province. We think it would be promising to use the results and conclusions in monitoring studies and sociological projects on similar topics in other regions, and to continue studying the obtained results in the framework of interdisciplinary analysis.
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Статья научная
The goal of the paper is to study the dynamics of competitiveness of the population in one of the large Siberian regions (on the materials of Krasnoyarsk Krai). We use the socio-cultural approach (RAS Corresponding Member N.I. Lapin) and appropriate methodological tools in the research. Traditional and market motivation of people and their labor preferences are analyzed for the first time as socio-cultural indicators of competitiveness. Labor preferences act in the form of orientation toward working at enterprises (organizations) belonging to various forms of ownership. We show that in the majority of foreign economic studies, competitiveness is considered as the quality and ability to achieve one’s own goals at the international level with one’s own products and services. Many publications are devoted to comparative studies of competitiveness at the level of enterprises (firms). Interdisciplinary phenomena such as human capital and education are also studied in this context...
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