Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1745
Development of the information society in the Russian Federation: problems and prospects
Статья научная
He development of information technology and the informatization of society are putting forward new tasks that focus on obtaining major advantages in the use of information and communication technology, expanding the capabilities of users and effective use of the Internet and digital services. A characteristic feature of the modern stage of society’s development is the digitalization of the economic and social spheres. Digital transformation has become an important factor in global economic growth: potential economic effects of the digital economy can significantly increase GDP, people’s purchasing power, change the labor market and quality of life, and improve the business environment. The emergence of the concept of “digital economy” marked a new stage in the management of goods and services production based on the use of modern information technology. The development of the information society in Russia and the reduction of its lag behind the leading countries requires addressing the issues related to the development of intellectual, human, technological advantages; the formation of an adaptive regulatory framework for the introduction of digital technologies in all spheres of life. The purpose of the work is to comprehend the concept and the essence of the information society in its relationship with the phenomenon of the digital economy and to study trends, problems and prospects for development of the information society in the Russian Federation in the context of digitalization of the economy. We review theoretical concepts of the development of the information society, consider theoretical foundations of the essence of the information society in the context of digitalization of the economy, analyze the state of and trends in the development of the information society in the Russian Federation, and reveal problems and directions of its development. Scientific novelty and originality are as follows: we develop theoretical and methodological approaches to studying the essence of the information society in the conditions of digitalization of the economy and the corresponding conceptual apparatus; we define scientific and methodological foundations for a comprehensive assessment of the situation and trends in the development of the information society in the Russian Federation; we propose a range of practical measures and a list of indicators characterizing the development of the information society.
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Development of the institution of local self-government in Russia: problems and prospects
Статья научная
The relevance of the article is due to the active discussions of a draft federal law on local selfgovernment in Russia in 2022. The purpose of the work is to identify prerequisites for and substantiate promising directions of reforming the institution of local self-government in Russia. To achieve the goal we use key general scientific research methods, a questionnaire survey of Vologda Oblast municipal formations’ heads conducted in 2022, a methodology for grouping municipalities by level of development to identify the specifics of the answers of heads in the context of different types of territories and reveal the attitude of municipalities’ heads toward the draft law. This is what constitutes scientific novelty of the study. It is established that the low financial and economic independence of municipalities remains the main problem of local self-government. In addition, over the past ten years a significant number of constituent entities of the Russian Federation witnessed cases of abolition of the settlement level of government as municipal districts were converted into municipal and urban okrugs. It is revealed that the key controversial and ambiguous points in the draft law under consideration are as follows: abolition of the settlement level of government; strengthening the responsibility of municipalities’ heads to the top official of the RF constituent entity; insufficient attention to specifying the powers and functions of local self-government bodies and resources for their full-fledged and high-quality implementation. We put forward recommendations for improving the text of the draft law for each aspect specified above. The results of the research can be used in the work of federal authorities when finalizing the draft law on local self-government and in the practical implementation of the new reform; they can also serve as a basis for further research on this topic.
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Статья научная
Currently, the world community is united in the problems of sustainable development of territories and enterprises, achieving carbon neutrality and transition to environmentally friendly forms of energy. An important element in solving these problems is the greening of public and personal transport, the motive power of which is based on high-power batteries. At the same time, the key component in batteries is lithium, which has already received large-scale use in a number of high-tech industries. Despite the fact that Russia ranks 14th according to lithium reserves, with about 1 million tons (0.95%) in its territory, lithium is not mined in the Russian Federation, and until 2022 the raw material was imported from Latin American countries. Rising prices for lithium, as well as a growing demand from electric car manufacturers, have increased interest in development of lithium projects among Russian companies such as Rosatom, Gazprom and Norilsk Nickel. In China, on the contrary, lithium production has increased 103-fold over the past 30 years - from 320 thousand tons in 1994 to 33 million tons by 2023, and the share of China in global production has increased by 13 percentage points, from 5.2 to 18.3%. Jiangxi Province can be considered the richest province, with large reserves of lithium minerals. This article aims to elaborate on conceptual directions for lithium production development in Russia and China as a key industry in transition to a green economy and achieving carbon neutrality. The information base for the research includes publications of domestic and foreign authors on the following issues: greening of global industry; reducing carbon footprint; features of lithium mining and production, as well as its use in electric vehicles. When writing the article, scientific methods such as comparative analysis and generalization, analysis and processing of statistical data were used
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Статья научная
The article considers industrial policy as a compulsory attribute of the state participation in the economic development of any country, singles out types of industrial policy and emphasizes contradictory understanding of industrial policy in Western countries and domestic economy. The author describes the features of industrial policy implementation in foreign countries and analyzes the stages of its development and implementation in Russia. The article substantiates the fact that the current trend of modern national economy development is new industrialization. It clarifies the research conceptual framework, describes the author's concept of new industrialization, reveals its functional-catalytic type and formulates the concept of “institutional contour of new industrialization”. The research develops theoretical-methodological bases and proposes the theoretical platform for industrial policy in conditions of new industrialization. The platform system base is the synthesis of the institutional theory provisions, the theory of long-term technological and economic development and economic synergy. The article reveals the evolution of the industrial policy implementation mechanism and singles out the modern mechanisms, typical for industrial policy of the 21st century.
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Development of tourism in the Arkhangelsk area
Статья научная
This article is devoted to the development and functioning of the regional tourism industry. The main problem of inbound and domestic tourism, the tourism infrastructure state, supply and demand in the tourist market of the Arkhangelsk region are considered in the article. The assessment of historical and cultural factors in the development of regional tourism and regional promotion of tourist products is also given in the article.
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Статья научная
The article considers the condition and prospects of trade and economic cooperation between Belarus and Russia at the present stage in the framework of the Union State. It highlights the importance of the Belarusian-Russian inter-regional cooperation, outlines the basic guidelines of trade and economic policy of the Union State for the period up to 2020.
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Development opportunities of liner maritime passenger traffic in the Republic of Croatia
Статья научная
The main issue addressed in this paper relates to the analysis of maritime passenger ports in the Republic of Croatia and the impact of this type of maritime transport on tourism in the Republic of Croatia. Liner maritime passenger traffic is important for the development of coastal economies, especially tourism and trade, in preventing the emigration of the island population. Accordingly, it is necessary to invest in the modernization of liner passenger ships in order to respond to the difficult winter conditions of sailing, and the prolongation of the tourist season would lead to more frequent passenger lines. Considering that the liner maritime passenger traffic represents a significant type of transport in Croatia, the conducted research was directed toward that segment specifically. In order to achieve the set goals of this paper, the secondary and the primary research have been conducted. The aim of the primary research was to explore satisfaction of the consumers with the services of liner maritime passenger traffic in Croatia, and to identify possibilities for further improvements...
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Development scenarios for Russia's dairy industry
Статья научная
Innovative modernization of Russia's dairy industry is a key factor in ensuring the country's food and environmental security in the context of increasing export orientation. The goal of our research is to substantiate the concept for development of the dairy industry in Russia and to develop forecast scenarios for its functioning based on the introduction of the best available technologies. The paper reveals specific features of functioning of the industry and the contradictions they cause. We conclude that effective development of the industry is possible only under balanced state policy that takes into account international experience and the challenges that the industry has to deal with. We analyze the use of the best available technologies in the dairy industry in Russia and propose a model for development of the concept of the dairy industry on the basis of the best available technologies. Our scenarios for development of Russia's dairy industry are of practical interest, as well as our conclusion that the state policy for the development of this industry should be based on an innovative scenario involving its system modernization, which will help ensure food and environmental security of the country and promote dairy products exports...
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Differences in Fertility and Reproductive Behavior Indicators
Статья научная
The search for the reasons that determine birth rate dynamics remains relevant from the practical and theoretical viewpoints. The aim of our research is to assess whether Russia’s population complies with the stable population model in terms of stability of sex structure. We make an attempt to calculate and assess reproduction indicators for male population. Having revealed that such calculations have methodological limitations, we propose a way to overcome them. According to calculations, in 2019 in Russia, the total fertility rate for women (1.504) was 9.1% higher than for men (1.378). The difference in the gross reproduction rate was 3.1% (0.730 for women and 0.708 for men), in the net reproduction rate – 6.0% (0.719 for women, 0.678 for men). The difference in the value of the rate of natural increase in women and men is 5.0% (-11.5 and -12.1%, respectively). Due to the presence of two quantitatively different reproduction modes in the female and male generations, we doubt it would be possible to implement a stable population model. The age-related model of fertility in men, as well as in women, is shifting toward older ages (in the groups aged 25–29 and 30–34). The average age when men become fathers has also increased: from 31.51 years in 2011 to 32.40 in 2019. We also analyze the fertility rate model according to the age of the mother and father. We have determined that in most cases (70% in 2019) the father is older than the mother, in 19% of cases the mother is older than the father, in 11% – both parents are of the same age. Fathers are 1–4 years older than mothers in 44–64% of cases (depending on the age of the mother). It is noteworthy that the difference in the age of parents is higher when children are born out of wedlock. In the future, we find it interesting to study gender-related differences in reproductive motivation and other determinants of male and female fertility.
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Статья научная
Kazakhstan is characterized by significant interregional differences in the provision with natural resources and economic capacity; this feature is reflected in the level of economic development, provision with social infrastructure, and investment opportunities. Specifics of spatial development in Kazakhstan, different potential of its individual territories, differences in the structure and specialization of economic entities, ambiguity in the severity and depth of the crisis processes in the years of market reforms, the pace and forms of their implementation put the regions of our country in unequal conditions that aggravated their differentiation. That is why the Address of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev to the People of Kazakhstan “The Strategy “Kazakhstan 2050”: New Political Course of the Established State” sets out a very timely task of aligning the socio-economic conditions in the regions and forming new effective mechanisms of its implementation...
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Digital civic participation in the context of modern research
Статья научная
The emergence and development of digital civic participation is an inevitable consequence of Internet penetration into various spheres of life. Despite the novelty of the phenomenon itself, the practices of online activism have become engrained in public life; and they have a significant impact on certain events, and sometimes even act as the main trigger of subsequent changes, which is especially typical of the political system. At the same time, there are many concerns related to the spread of digital civics, so that it is very difficult to talk about the long-term implications of such transformations. In this regard, the purpose of our research is to summarize the experience of studying digital civic participation and highlight the features of its manifestation in a modern world. The research methodology is based on the principles of making a systematic scientific review. During the analysis, we identify essential foundations and distinctive features of online activism compared to the traditional offline format, which are reflected in the forms of manifestation, methods of attracting and composition of the participants themselves, as well as the conditions necessary for collective action. The scope of digital civic participation is largely ensured by the ease of entry into public affairs, and the variability of activities and types of networking. Despite the prevalence of the thesis about the purely external visibility of online activism and its destructive consequences, specific empirical studies do not confirm this conclusion. Nevertheless, the threats of the spread of ICT are quite real and go far beyond the virtual space. In conclusion, we formulate several polemic provisions on possible ways to overcome the contradictions in this area. Our research contributes to the development of scientific ideas about the specifics of digital civic participation and the disclosure of the potential of its application from the standpoint of modern challenges and threats.
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Digital inequality between urban and rural population
Статья научная
Digitalization can transform social inequality between urban and rural population into a digital divide. This issue in the “city-village” context is not given due attention by scholars and is mainly limited to the country level. Interregional inequality in scientific publications is considered, as a rule, outside of this context. The study seeks to eliminate this gap. The aim is to identify features, trends and quantitative parameters of digital inequality (divide) between urban and rural population at the national and interregional level and identify ways to address the issues that arise. The tasks are to establish trends in the formation of a digital divide in the levels of Internet access and digital competence of users, in obtaining state and municipal services and ordering goods/services; to assess the reasons for the rural population's refusal to use the Internet and identify ways to solve this problem. The study was based on a combination of calculation of coefficients ofvariation and grouping of regions. We used the data of the federal statistical observation.
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Digitalization and the development of a “smart” society: the logic and practice of management
Статья научная
The rapid spread of new technologies in all areas of activity leads to quick and profound changes in the structure of industrial production, global markets, and the economic and social sphere. The potential of information and communication technologies, accumulated by the 21st century, causes significant changes in the functioning of economic systems at different levels, from the global economy to individual economic entities; informatization and digitalization are the most important factors of economic growth. Under their influence, there is a transition from the introduction of individual digital technologies to the complex construction of a digital ecosystem. The rapid development of digital technologies has led to a model of society in which the real world and virtual space interact, a value orientation that combines big data algorithms with small data mining is emerging, a scenario spanning two opposing modes of decentralization and centralization is constructing, and different governance logics are emerging in which rule management and code-based regulation complement each other. This logic of governance has been put into practice in the process of social construction, creating an open and secure digital ecosystem, a collaborative multi-managerial circle and an inclusive dividend distribution circle, enriching the connotation of “co-building, co-managing and sharing”, thereby laying the scientific and technical foundation for modernizing the national governance system and management capacity. The aim of our work is to comprehend the concept, the essence of the term “smart society” in its relationship with the phenomenon of the economy digitalization and studying the practice of management of development of such a society. The scientific novelty and originality of the research is reflected in the development of theoretical and methodological approaches and conceptual apparatus of studying the essence of “smart society” in the context of the economy digitalization; in the development of scientific and methodological foundations of a comprehensive assessment of the state, development trends of “smart” society in the Russian Federation and China; in the formation of a set of practical measures and a list of indicators characterizing the development of “smart” society.
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Статья научная
Rapid introduction and spread of digital technology in all spheres of life have lead to changes in the economy and society. Digitalization seems to be one of the promising directions in terms of addressing economic, environmental and social issues related to the development of territories, including small and medium-sized cities. However, scientific literature has not paid sufficient attention to the digital transformation of such settlements and their territorial specifics. The aim of our work is to study trends and prospects related to the digitalization of small and medium-sized cities in the European North of Russia. We present a number of indicators characterizing the basic conditions for the development of digital technology in the region. We analyze the extent of penetration of digital services in small and medium-sized cities of the European North of Russia and identify the presence of a developed online trading infrastructure alongside a relatively low level of distribution of services. Main barriers to the digitalization of small and medium-sized cities are high cost of developing and implementing digital technologies and services, lack of funding, and a low level of digital competencies in the population. We propose solutions to the above problems and put forward some conceptual provisions determining the choice of priority areas of digitalization to achieve the sustainable development goals in northern small and medium-sized cities. We focus our attention on the importance of taking into account not only the opportunities, but also the risks of digitalization; the expediency of choosing priority areas of digitalization of the economy for various types of cities; the need to introduce digital technology to address social and environmental issues. The findings of our study may be useful to the public authorities of RF constituent entities in finalizing regional strategies on digital transformation of economic sectors, social sphere and public administration.
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Distance learning for gifted schoolchildren: problems and prospects
Статья научная
The article dwells on the problems concerning the formation of a regional system of distance education for gifted schoolchildren. It presents the experience in distance learning of the gifted schoolchildren of the Vologda Oblast at the Centre for distance education of the Vologda Multi-Discipline Lyceum. The most promising directions of the e-learning development are considered.
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Diversification and small business as the factor of economic development
Статья научная
The article considers the opportunities of diversification and small business in assistance of economic development reveal. The comparative analysis of a condition of development of small business in subjects NWFD the Russian Federation is resulted.
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Diversification way of oil-and-gas producing region
Статья научная
In the given article the author carries out the analysis of the oil production condition in the Russian Federation and in its major oil-production region - Khanty-Mansiysk autonomous okrug - UGRA. The oil-production branch of Russia strongly depends on the economical situation in KhМАО-UGRA. Any mistake in the strategy of mineral resources base development and the production strategy in UGRA region seriously affects the economy of Russia in a whole. The author made a review of the influence of the world financial crisis on the economy of KhМАО-UGRA. Reasons of the economy recession in the oil and gas production region and ways out of the negative dynamics are specified.
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Domestic tourism development in a region
Статья научная
Tourism is a sector which has a significant impact on the socio-economic development of territories. This type of national economic activity is characterized by a multiplier effect, generating incomes in related economic sectors. Among all types of tourism, the key role belongs to domestic tourism as the main source of income from tourist activities. Russian regions, domestic tourism is poorly developed due to imperfect infrastructure of the sector, lack of correlation between prices for tourism products and their quality, and lack of qualified personnel. In recent years, external factors are of particular significance for this sector; they include turbulent geopolitical situation in some countries, crisis phenomena in the economy, ban on travelling to popular foreign resorts for Russian citizens. The issues of domestic tourism development are reflected in works by D.R. Makeeva, E.V. Semenova, N.V. Maslova, L.I. Chernikova, G.R. Faizov. The purpose for the research is to study directions for domestic tourism development in the region taking into account the influence of external factors...
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Drivers of Economic Growth of the Nizhny Novgorod Region: Modeling GRP Using Data from Twin Regions
Статья научная
Identification of development trends and growth potential of Russian regions in the new conditions requires the elaboration of advanced approaches to modeling the main economic indicators. The aim of the article is to carry out an econometric modeling and analysis of the GRP of the Nizhny Novgorod Region using data from twin regions. The selection of twin regions was based on the similarity of industry structures, level of development and trends. Using panel data for 16 regions of the Nizhny Novgorod Region cluster for 2000-2023, the Cobb - Douglas functions with lagged variables were constructed, estimated by the maximum likelihood method with correction for group heteroscedasticity. As a result of the modeling, a positive influence of supply factors (accumulated fixed assets, current investments, number of employees), demand factors (income per capita in the past period) on the current GRP was established. The scale and structure of budget expenditures of the region also play an important role in increasing the GRP in the cluster under consideration. The average annual key interest rate of the Bank of Russia, as well as its change, have a negative impact on the GRP. In addition, the GRP of the cluster regions is positively related to the price of Brent crude oil, which indicates the historical dependence of the Russian economy on the oil sector, and the dollar to ruble exchange rate, which affects the price component of the GRP through the pass-through effect, as well as import substitution processes. The obtained results can be the basis for designing forecasts and scenarios for the development of the region in the future, determining the consequences of regulatory impacts at the regional level and the effects of uncontrolled macroeconomic parameters. Further development of the study is possible through the inclusion of high-frequency data, the elaboration of models with more advanced specifications, including structured and aggregated ones, as well as separate modeling of the inflationary and real components of GRP, which together will allow for the creation of more accurate short-term forecasts
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Drivers of concentration of economic activity in Russia's regions
Статья научная
The uneven distribution of economic activity in Russia promotes the differentiation of its constituent entities by level of development. Regions are independent participants of economic relations, and they often act as competitors rather than partners. Agglomeration effects arise in more successful regions and contribute to the concentration of resources, manufacturing enterprises, service providers, skilled workers, and scientific and technological knowledge. The aim of the study, the results of which are reflected in the paper, is to identify the factors and assess their impact on the concentration (dispersion) of economic activity on the basis of Russia's regions. The paper describes the benefits of agglomeration processes from the standpoint of economic geography, allocation theory and international trade theory. The concentration of economic activity in Russia's regions is estimated by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index of industrial production taking into consideration the volume of investments in fixed capital and the number of people employed in the economy in Russia's regions in 1990-2013...
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