Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Journal articles - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
All articles: 1817
Scientific article
The relevance of the study is due to the fact that the process of import substitution, which is on the rise in the country, requires a reliable and accurate quantitative assessment of its effectiveness. The main idea of the study is to assess the effectiveness of import substitution as a complex multidimensional phenomenon characterized by multidirectional and contradictory dynamics of its processes in their unity, relationship and mutual influence. The goal of the study is to develop a method for integrated assessment of import substitution effectiveness on the basis of theoretical substantiation of its principles and provisions. To achieve the goal we use such methods as analysis and generalization of existing methodological approaches to its assessment. The hypothesis of the study is based on the fact that the method we have developed allows us not only to make a reliable assessment of the effectiveness of import substitution, but also to predict the directions of its increase. Our research develops the works of other authors in the field of integrated assessment of import substitution effectiveness: we elaborate a comprehensive system of target performance indicators (the system has not been used before) and assess the trends in the development of import substitution processes structured in the context of domestic production, export and import of goods subject to import substitution, according to the degree of achievement of these indicators. The study was carried out with the use of methods such as factor determinant and structural-dynamic analysis, and multi-criteria optimization method. The technique was tested on the example of food products - the flagship of domestic import substitution. We reveal the processes that hinder import substitution in the food industry and some positive trends in import substitution that confirm its effectiveness. We calculate an optimal structure of commodity resources, which ensures the achievement of import substitution effectiveness in the food industry to the fullest extent. It is advisable to apply our technique in the field of import substitution in individual commodity groups, each of which has its own features in the formation of imports, exports, domestic production and their specifics in the context of research tasks. We plan to continue our research in the development of methods for a comprehensive assessment of the impact of import substitution on economic growth in the country.
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Scientific article
Nowadays the management of resources allocated to science depends directly on the availability of information about the state of scientific research in the country and abroad. Due to the increasing number of research projects that receive public funding and that are carried out with the support from various funds, special importance is attached to the issue concerning the analysis and comprehensive evaluation of scientific research performance and the choice of the most promising research topics. The article substantiates the necessity to develop a national information and analytical system of citation, which should become part of the system to assess the effectiveness and performance of Russian scientists and scientific organizations. The author uses the analysis of bibliometric indicators of the Russian Science Citation Index and shows the evolution of publication activity of organizations engaged in economic research and subordinate to the Federal Agency of Scientific Organizations of Russia...
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Scientific article
Regional economic processes determine the scale of functioning and performance of small and medium-sized enterprises due to their specific involvement in the economy of a territorial entity and quick response to changes in the external environment. The unevenness and high differentiation of economic development in the territories determine the heterogeneity and differences in the level of entrepreneurship development in Russia. In this regard, the aim of our study is to arrange Russian regions into clusters according to indicators reflecting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and macroeconomic parameters characterizing the economic environment of their functioning, which either acts as a driving force or creates obstacles. The novelty of the approach consists not only in the fact that it integrates enterprises’ development indicators and indicators of the external economic environment of their functioning into the clustering parameters, but also in the formation of final clusters, taking into account the grouping of regions for each year of the period under consideration. This makes it possible to determine the stability of the territory in the group or to track the movement between groups. The k-means method is chosen for clustering. Clustering was carried out according to Federal State Statistics Service data from 2015 to 2021 in 85 regions of Russia. Five clusters have been obtained, whose features confirm the assumption that the development of small and medium-sized enterprises is determined by the economic development of the territory as an external environment of their functioning. Nevertheless, a special second cluster was identified, with the presence of restrictions on the use of the potential of the economic environment, which includes regions that differ in the average level of development of small and medium-sized enterprises against the background of high economic development. The results obtained can be used in the elaboration and implementation of policies to improve the sphere of small and medium-sized businesses at the level of the state as a whole and at the level of a particular region. Further development of our findings may consist in changing indicators or including other clustering algorithms, further typologizing regions or conducting correlation and regression analysis within individual clusters.
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Scientific article
The article represents the statistical data on the development of small business in subjects of North-West federal district for the period of 2003 - 2008. The results of the comparative analysis of the region’s achievements on such indicators as quantity of the registered small enterprises per 100 thousand inhabitants, employment of workers on small enterprises, volumes of production output at small enterprises, investments in fixed capital at small enterprises are given.
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Development of small cities: from individual trajectories to strategic planning
Scientific article
The relevance of the study is due to increased attention to small cities and improving the quality of life, which is directly related to the strategic planning of small cities development, taking into account individual features. However, small cities in Russia are characterized by negative trends in the social and economic spheres. The aim of the study is to identify key areas of small cities development strategies, taking into account individual trajectories identified on the basis of expert assessments. The city of Kostomuksha of the Republic of Karelia, which is the administrative center of Kostomukshsky Urban Okrug, was chosen as the object of research. We use qualitative sociology methods, namely, the results of an expert focus group and individual interviews with representatives of government, business and non-profit organizations. We reveal problems in the social sphere typical for the city of Kostomuksha and for small cities in general: low level of accessibility of education and healthcare services, including personnel in these areas, migration outflow of young people, lack of renovation of housing stock. Regarding the stakeholders of territorial transformations, we find out that the main feature of Kostomuksha is predominant participation of large socially oriented businesses in addressing urban problems with rather weak participation of citizens. As a result of the research, we have identified new individual development trajectories: sports and wellness tourism, which must be taken into account in the development strategy of Kostomuksha. We conclude that it is necessary to design strategies for the development of territories, taking into account the opinions and activity of local communities, opportunities for collaboration of various actors in addressing social issues of small cities. The novelty of the research lies in expanding the methodological approach to strategic planning for small cities development using original tools of qualitative sociology - expert assessments of stakeholders in territorial development.
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Scientific article
Due to the growing global socio-economic and environmental challenges (population ageing, climate change, society polarization, etc.), there is a revaluation of a position and role of innovations in overcoming threats to social development in the modern world. Researchers note a shift in the innovation paradigm toward social innovation, since it is assumed that it is not possible to achieve a drastic improvement of the situation solely through technological innovations. At the same time, many existing problems cannot be solved with efforts of a single actor - intersectoral cooperation becomes a necessity. This aspect is of key importance for development of social innovation. The purpose of the study was to analyze development of social innovations in the Russian Federation based on an actor approach, which involves an overview of this phenomenon through the prism of activities of various entities and their interaction. General scientific methods were used in the study: discourse analysis, generalization, comparison, etc. Essential foundations and the role of social innovations in solving current society’s problems are presented. Using the example of government structures, big business, and civil society, the authors explore the features of social innovation development in Russia. It is shown that development of social innovations depends on their interpretation in public discourse, involvement in strategies of various actors, and intersectoral cooperation in the innovation process. In conclusion, the prospects for development of studied phenomenon are determined within identified trends and the specifics of interconnections between designated actors. The results obtained may be used not only as an empirical basis for further research, but they may also represent practical significance in development of specific management decisions in this area.
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Development of state and small-business partnership in a region's innovation sector
Scientific article
The strategic goals of innovation development of the Russian Federation and problems of development of small and medium businesses require the study of the mechanisms of successful cooperation between the state and small businesses, including public-private partnership (PPP). The article considers promising mechanisms for innovative development of the Russian economy in the framework of PPP, with the participation of small businesses. The hypothesis is presented by the thesis that small business has a high innovation potential and exceptional opportunities for its implementation in PPP projects. This thesis is confirmed by the analysis and synthesis of a number of scientific theories. The purpose of the study is to clarify the nature and areas of partnership between the state and small business in innovation and development of proposals to improve their cooperation according to the PPP principles. The methodological basis of the study includes the systematic approach, methods of structural, concept, functional and statistical analysis, the method of expert evaluations...
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Development of the economic space of Russia's regions on the basis of cluster principles
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Scientific article
The paper considers institutional changes in the sphere of procurement of goods, works and services for public purposes. The goal of the paper is to develop a new conceptual approach to the formation of an institutional model for the contract procurement system. It is shown that basic concepts of the current model of contract system remain outside the framework of the universally binding and formally defined categories in conditions of legal regulation instability. We formulate the task of systematizing the set of concepts and definitions in order to separate and differentiate individual segments of the procurement market. In order to implement this task we analyze fundamental definitions contained in legislative acts of international organizations and countries, review key approaches and principles, and highlight specific national features of procurement regulations. We draw attention to the fact that the greatest volume of purchases is observed in the public sector. In the process of our research we use a method of normalized weighted average indicators to calculate an integral index that characterizes the scale of the public sector and also to obtain expert assessment of the extent of procurement control...
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Development of the information society in the Russian Federation: problems and prospects
Scientific article
He development of information technology and the informatization of society are putting forward new tasks that focus on obtaining major advantages in the use of information and communication technology, expanding the capabilities of users and effective use of the Internet and digital services. A characteristic feature of the modern stage of society’s development is the digitalization of the economic and social spheres. Digital transformation has become an important factor in global economic growth: potential economic effects of the digital economy can significantly increase GDP, people’s purchasing power, change the labor market and quality of life, and improve the business environment. The emergence of the concept of “digital economy” marked a new stage in the management of goods and services production based on the use of modern information technology. The development of the information society in Russia and the reduction of its lag behind the leading countries requires addressing the issues related to the development of intellectual, human, technological advantages; the formation of an adaptive regulatory framework for the introduction of digital technologies in all spheres of life. The purpose of the work is to comprehend the concept and the essence of the information society in its relationship with the phenomenon of the digital economy and to study trends, problems and prospects for development of the information society in the Russian Federation in the context of digitalization of the economy. We review theoretical concepts of the development of the information society, consider theoretical foundations of the essence of the information society in the context of digitalization of the economy, analyze the state of and trends in the development of the information society in the Russian Federation, and reveal problems and directions of its development. Scientific novelty and originality are as follows: we develop theoretical and methodological approaches to studying the essence of the information society in the conditions of digitalization of the economy and the corresponding conceptual apparatus; we define scientific and methodological foundations for a comprehensive assessment of the situation and trends in the development of the information society in the Russian Federation; we propose a range of practical measures and a list of indicators characterizing the development of the information society.
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Development of the institution of local self-government in Russia: problems and prospects
Scientific article
The relevance of the article is due to the active discussions of a draft federal law on local selfgovernment in Russia in 2022. The purpose of the work is to identify prerequisites for and substantiate promising directions of reforming the institution of local self-government in Russia. To achieve the goal we use key general scientific research methods, a questionnaire survey of Vologda Oblast municipal formations’ heads conducted in 2022, a methodology for grouping municipalities by level of development to identify the specifics of the answers of heads in the context of different types of territories and reveal the attitude of municipalities’ heads toward the draft law. This is what constitutes scientific novelty of the study. It is established that the low financial and economic independence of municipalities remains the main problem of local self-government. In addition, over the past ten years a significant number of constituent entities of the Russian Federation witnessed cases of abolition of the settlement level of government as municipal districts were converted into municipal and urban okrugs. It is revealed that the key controversial and ambiguous points in the draft law under consideration are as follows: abolition of the settlement level of government; strengthening the responsibility of municipalities’ heads to the top official of the RF constituent entity; insufficient attention to specifying the powers and functions of local self-government bodies and resources for their full-fledged and high-quality implementation. We put forward recommendations for improving the text of the draft law for each aspect specified above. The results of the research can be used in the work of federal authorities when finalizing the draft law on local self-government and in the practical implementation of the new reform; they can also serve as a basis for further research on this topic.
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Scientific article
Currently, the world community is united in the problems of sustainable development of territories and enterprises, achieving carbon neutrality and transition to environmentally friendly forms of energy. An important element in solving these problems is the greening of public and personal transport, the motive power of which is based on high-power batteries. At the same time, the key component in batteries is lithium, which has already received large-scale use in a number of high-tech industries. Despite the fact that Russia ranks 14th according to lithium reserves, with about 1 million tons (0.95%) in its territory, lithium is not mined in the Russian Federation, and until 2022 the raw material was imported from Latin American countries. Rising prices for lithium, as well as a growing demand from electric car manufacturers, have increased interest in development of lithium projects among Russian companies such as Rosatom, Gazprom and Norilsk Nickel. In China, on the contrary, lithium production has increased 103-fold over the past 30 years - from 320 thousand tons in 1994 to 33 million tons by 2023, and the share of China in global production has increased by 13 percentage points, from 5.2 to 18.3%. Jiangxi Province can be considered the richest province, with large reserves of lithium minerals. This article aims to elaborate on conceptual directions for lithium production development in Russia and China as a key industry in transition to a green economy and achieving carbon neutrality. The information base for the research includes publications of domestic and foreign authors on the following issues: greening of global industry; reducing carbon footprint; features of lithium mining and production, as well as its use in electric vehicles. When writing the article, scientific methods such as comparative analysis and generalization, analysis and processing of statistical data were used
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Scientific article
The article considers industrial policy as a compulsory attribute of the state participation in the economic development of any country, singles out types of industrial policy and emphasizes contradictory understanding of industrial policy in Western countries and domestic economy. The author describes the features of industrial policy implementation in foreign countries and analyzes the stages of its development and implementation in Russia. The article substantiates the fact that the current trend of modern national economy development is new industrialization. It clarifies the research conceptual framework, describes the author's concept of new industrialization, reveals its functional-catalytic type and formulates the concept of “institutional contour of new industrialization”. The research develops theoretical-methodological bases and proposes the theoretical platform for industrial policy in conditions of new industrialization. The platform system base is the synthesis of the institutional theory provisions, the theory of long-term technological and economic development and economic synergy. The article reveals the evolution of the industrial policy implementation mechanism and singles out the modern mechanisms, typical for industrial policy of the 21st century.
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Development of tourism in the Arkhangelsk area
Scientific article
This article is devoted to the development and functioning of the regional tourism industry. The main problem of inbound and domestic tourism, the tourism infrastructure state, supply and demand in the tourist market of the Arkhangelsk region are considered in the article. The assessment of historical and cultural factors in the development of regional tourism and regional promotion of tourist products is also given in the article.
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Scientific article
The article considers the condition and prospects of trade and economic cooperation between Belarus and Russia at the present stage in the framework of the Union State. It highlights the importance of the Belarusian-Russian inter-regional cooperation, outlines the basic guidelines of trade and economic policy of the Union State for the period up to 2020.
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Development opportunities of liner maritime passenger traffic in the Republic of Croatia
Scientific article
The main issue addressed in this paper relates to the analysis of maritime passenger ports in the Republic of Croatia and the impact of this type of maritime transport on tourism in the Republic of Croatia. Liner maritime passenger traffic is important for the development of coastal economies, especially tourism and trade, in preventing the emigration of the island population. Accordingly, it is necessary to invest in the modernization of liner passenger ships in order to respond to the difficult winter conditions of sailing, and the prolongation of the tourist season would lead to more frequent passenger lines. Considering that the liner maritime passenger traffic represents a significant type of transport in Croatia, the conducted research was directed toward that segment specifically. In order to achieve the set goals of this paper, the secondary and the primary research have been conducted. The aim of the primary research was to explore satisfaction of the consumers with the services of liner maritime passenger traffic in Croatia, and to identify possibilities for further improvements...
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Development scenarios for Russia's dairy industry
Scientific article
Innovative modernization of Russia's dairy industry is a key factor in ensuring the country's food and environmental security in the context of increasing export orientation. The goal of our research is to substantiate the concept for development of the dairy industry in Russia and to develop forecast scenarios for its functioning based on the introduction of the best available technologies. The paper reveals specific features of functioning of the industry and the contradictions they cause. We conclude that effective development of the industry is possible only under balanced state policy that takes into account international experience and the challenges that the industry has to deal with. We analyze the use of the best available technologies in the dairy industry in Russia and propose a model for development of the concept of the dairy industry on the basis of the best available technologies. Our scenarios for development of Russia's dairy industry are of practical interest, as well as our conclusion that the state policy for the development of this industry should be based on an innovative scenario involving its system modernization, which will help ensure food and environmental security of the country and promote dairy products exports...
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Differences in Fertility and Reproductive Behavior Indicators
Scientific article
The search for the reasons that determine birth rate dynamics remains relevant from the practical and theoretical viewpoints. The aim of our research is to assess whether Russia’s population complies with the stable population model in terms of stability of sex structure. We make an attempt to calculate and assess reproduction indicators for male population. Having revealed that such calculations have methodological limitations, we propose a way to overcome them. According to calculations, in 2019 in Russia, the total fertility rate for women (1.504) was 9.1% higher than for men (1.378). The difference in the gross reproduction rate was 3.1% (0.730 for women and 0.708 for men), in the net reproduction rate – 6.0% (0.719 for women, 0.678 for men). The difference in the value of the rate of natural increase in women and men is 5.0% (-11.5 and -12.1%, respectively). Due to the presence of two quantitatively different reproduction modes in the female and male generations, we doubt it would be possible to implement a stable population model. The age-related model of fertility in men, as well as in women, is shifting toward older ages (in the groups aged 25–29 and 30–34). The average age when men become fathers has also increased: from 31.51 years in 2011 to 32.40 in 2019. We also analyze the fertility rate model according to the age of the mother and father. We have determined that in most cases (70% in 2019) the father is older than the mother, in 19% of cases the mother is older than the father, in 11% – both parents are of the same age. Fathers are 1–4 years older than mothers in 44–64% of cases (depending on the age of the mother). It is noteworthy that the difference in the age of parents is higher when children are born out of wedlock. In the future, we find it interesting to study gender-related differences in reproductive motivation and other determinants of male and female fertility.
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Scientific article
Kazakhstan is characterized by significant interregional differences in the provision with natural resources and economic capacity; this feature is reflected in the level of economic development, provision with social infrastructure, and investment opportunities. Specifics of spatial development in Kazakhstan, different potential of its individual territories, differences in the structure and specialization of economic entities, ambiguity in the severity and depth of the crisis processes in the years of market reforms, the pace and forms of their implementation put the regions of our country in unequal conditions that aggravated their differentiation. That is why the Address of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev to the People of Kazakhstan “The Strategy “Kazakhstan 2050”: New Political Course of the Established State” sets out a very timely task of aligning the socio-economic conditions in the regions and forming new effective mechanisms of its implementation...
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Digital civic participation in the context of modern research
Scientific article
The emergence and development of digital civic participation is an inevitable consequence of Internet penetration into various spheres of life. Despite the novelty of the phenomenon itself, the practices of online activism have become engrained in public life; and they have a significant impact on certain events, and sometimes even act as the main trigger of subsequent changes, which is especially typical of the political system. At the same time, there are many concerns related to the spread of digital civics, so that it is very difficult to talk about the long-term implications of such transformations. In this regard, the purpose of our research is to summarize the experience of studying digital civic participation and highlight the features of its manifestation in a modern world. The research methodology is based on the principles of making a systematic scientific review. During the analysis, we identify essential foundations and distinctive features of online activism compared to the traditional offline format, which are reflected in the forms of manifestation, methods of attracting and composition of the participants themselves, as well as the conditions necessary for collective action. The scope of digital civic participation is largely ensured by the ease of entry into public affairs, and the variability of activities and types of networking. Despite the prevalence of the thesis about the purely external visibility of online activism and its destructive consequences, specific empirical studies do not confirm this conclusion. Nevertheless, the threats of the spread of ICT are quite real and go far beyond the virtual space. In conclusion, we formulate several polemic provisions on possible ways to overcome the contradictions in this area. Our research contributes to the development of scientific ideas about the specifics of digital civic participation and the disclosure of the potential of its application from the standpoint of modern challenges and threats.
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