Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1692
Determinants of life expectancy in heterogeneous constituent entities of the Russian Federation
Статья научная
Low life expectancy is one of the main factors hindering national economic development. Finding a solution to this problem is complicated by enormous differentiation of life expectancy among constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Therefore, assessing the factors increasing life expectancy in heterogeneous regions of the country and developing methodological tools for the application of territorial defragmentation in terms of policy to improve regional health systems are major tasks for public administration. The research aims to find a solution to these problems. On the basis of a detailed analysis of the relevant literature we form a statistical base of indicators influencing life expectancy in RF constituent entities for 10 years; with the help of “hierarchical clustering” we arrange RF constituent entities into eight groups according to the specifics of forming conditions for a long and healthy life; through econometric modeling we assess and identify the impact of individual indicators on life expectancy in different groups of RF constituent entities; on the basis of the modeling results we formulate areas of further research and priorities of the state regional policy in the field of health care. We use general scientific and special methods, including statistical, cartographic, typological, econometric, and cluster methods during the analysis of regional health systems. Statistical data processing and econometric modeling are carried out using statistical packages SPSS Statistics and Gretl. Scientific novelty of the study consists in the clustering of RF constituent entities according to the specifics of forming conditions for increasing life expectancy, which has fundamental importance for improving the effectiveness of territorial management and planning in the field of health care. Practical significance of the work is determined by the tasks of regional policy of Russia and its constituent entities in the sphere of increasing the life expectancy. The results of the study can be useful to the state regional authorities and local authorities for the formation of a set of measures to improve life expectancy.
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Determinants of the Russian banking sector development as the drivers of economic growth
Статья научная
The paper substantiates the relationship between the situation in the national banking sector and Russia's economy. Using the data provided by the Bank of Russia [8; 9; 10], Federal State Statistics Service [2], IBM SPSS Statistics software product, the authors have carried out a regression-correlation analysis of the main indicators of the Russian banking sector in 2005-2015 and GDP. It has been found that there is the strongest positive correlation between GDP and aggregate banking risks and also the profit of credit institutions; the correlation between GDP and aggregate financial result of the banking sector is weaker; the return on equity has no significant relationship with major indicators of banking activities, except for a moderate negative relationship with the aggregate value of regulatory capital; the return on equity in the Russian banking sector is affected adversely by subordinated debt in the structure of capital. In a stable economic situation (2005-2007, 2010-2013) the authors point out a correlation between capital and the profit of the banking sector; in a crisis situation (2008-2009, 2014-2015), there is a correlation between capital and the profit of profitable credit institutions alone...
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Determinants of the trust of Russian municipalities’ residents in local self-government bodies
Статья научная
The relevance of the article is due to Russia’s orientation toward the democratization of socio-political relations, as well as the need to address issues emerging in modern society. We consider a system of factors determining the level, nature, and dynamics of the trust of Russian municipalities’ residents in local self-government bodies. We provide the findings of the following sociological surveys conducted in the Tver Oblast: 1) a sociological monitoring carried out to analyze the dynamics of citizens’ perceptions of local self-government (2012-2022); 2) a study that analyzes public trust in local self-government bodies (October 7 - November 1, 2022). The data of our research are compared with the results of all-Russian surveys. Our approach consists in analyzing the trust in local self-government as a whole and, at the same time, the trust in its individual institutions (head, administration, and representative body of municipality). This, along with the grouping of trust factors that we put forward, determines the scientific novelty of the work. In the course of the study, we observe a low level of trust in local self-government bodies (compared, for example, with trust in the president), its undulating dynamics, predominance of an increasing trend, tendency toward its depersonalization, and formation of an institutional type of trust. We propose a theoretical and methodological framework for designing a system of determinants of trust in local self-government bodies and identify groups of factors influencing it. We reveal a weak connection of the dynamics of trust in local self-government bodies with the stages of the economic cycle, the importance of the material well-being of citizens as a trust factor; besides, we find that citizens’ trust in local self-government bodies is conditioned by their perception of the economic situation. The factors that have the most significant influence on the growth of the level of trust in local authorities include positive assessment of the work of local self-government bodies, citizens’ positive assessment of their own experience of interaction with local self-government employees, high or average assessment of the degree of influence of an ordinary citizen on the activities of local self-government bodies. Perceptions concerning the presence of corruption in municipal bodies, inconsistency of real municipal practices aimed at minimizing the participation of citizens in managerial decision-making, and people’s expectations have a negative impact on the credibility of this institution. We propose ways to solve these problems. Theoretical significance of the work is determined by the possibility to use the theoretical and methodological framework for further theoretical and empirical research. Practical significance is associated with the possibility of developing state and municipal policy measures aimed at improving ways to increase public trust in local authorities.
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Статья научная
The sustainable development concept is highly relevant in the modern scientific and applied agenda of country’s social and economic development. Russia has approved a number of programs for its active implementation. This is reflected in almost all branches of the economy. The forest industry is crucial in this context as it uses and restores wood, one of major resources for the planet’s ecosystems. The aim of the research is to develop a model for optimizing the activities of forest industry enterprises, taking into account the prospects of moving into sustainable development. The aim was predetermined by a necessity to design a means for supporting the idea of moving into sustainable development. The model includes a range of effects that impact the profit through the use of various resources. Forest enterprises activities concern a set of technical, economic, ecological and social aspects. The presented model helps to calculate the remaining profit available to the enterprise. It also covers crucial aspects such as competitiveness and efficiency, which are determined by the effects of social, ecological and economic nature. An important finding is the demonstration ofthe need and interest of forest enterprises to fulfill the existing restrictions imposed by stakeholders. The presented results may be valuable for researchers of the forest sector economy and to the industry in general; for the federal authorities to implement sustainable development programs and create industrial policy; for the heads of forest businesses to develop relevant strategies and plans.
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Статья научная
The processes of economic development of countries, industries, and enterprises are necessarily accompanied by the competition between the subjects of economic activity. That is why it is important to create favorable conditions for them, to form a competitive environment that meets market principles of economic activity, taking into account minimum intervention of the government in the functioning of the market. Russia is inferior to many countries - even to the former Soviet republics - in terms of favorable business environment; it ranks 40th in the Doing Business rating. Since there is no system approach to the formation of a competitive market environment and state competition policy is carried out with the help of economic coordination of economic entities, it becomes relevant to determine the set of elements (subjects, objects, methods, tools, etc.) regulating this area, and to study the links between them. Based on this, the goal of the present study is to develop an organizational and economic mechanism to shape and regulate the competitive environment in the regional economy...
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Статья научная
In the Russian Non-Black Earth Region, an unacceptable contrast remains between the level of socio-economic development of cities and the presence of “desolation zones” in rural areas. In turn, rural areas of the regions are excessively differentiated and polarized. In some areas, innovative agricultural production is developing, and the number of rural residents is growing, in others, commodity production is declining, depopulation is increasing, and social desertification and space compression are taking place there. Socio-economic phenomena in rural areas depend on the directions and rates of dynamics of agricultural production. Hence, the main idea, presented in the article, is the consideration of differentiation process of agricultural production as the primary basis for the heterogeneity formation of rural areas. The purpose of the study is to identify the level and features of the formation of territorial differentiation of agricultural production in the Non-Black Earth Region during the planned (1974-1990) and market (1991-2019) economies, and to determine ways to reduce its excessive redundancy. At the same time, the authors analyze territorial differentiation from two sides: as a process and as a result of this process. Methodologically, the paper considers the development heterogeneity from the standpoint of the “center - periphery” concept and differential rent theory. The work uses the method of multicriteria stratification of the final rank scales. The ranking is carried out according to the Board rule, the countries are determined on ordinal scales using tertiles, quartiles, and quintiles. The article calculates the coefficients of Gini and funds. As a result, the authors have determined a sharp increase in interregional differentiation and polarization in the production of agricultural goods in 1991-2019. According to the dynamics of agricultural production in 1974-1990, there have been identified five types of regions, the rating positions of which have been transformed in six directions in the subsequent period. In conclusion, the authors have determined the aggregate level of interregional differentiation. The study identifies three groups and nine subgroups of regions, and defines the differences between them. The paper establishes current trends of the differentiation process in the production of agricultural goods, and proposes ways to reduce excessive differentiation and polarization of the regions.
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Development of Russia's agriculture as a factor promoting the solution of the world food problem
Статья научная
The article reviews the current state and causes of the global food problem. It characterizes the measures of governmental support to the development of agriculture in Russia in 2008 - 2011. It also states the possibilities of increasing agricultural production output by using the potential of the country’s Northern regions provided that technical and technological modernization will be carried out. The article identifies the main priorities of Russia’s agricultural policy and related activities that will enhance exports of food on the world markets.
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Статья научная
The paper proposes our own methodological approach based on the data of financial statements of agricultural organizations and allowing us to assess the impact of taxation regimes on the results of their activities. The subject of the study is the system of statistical indicators of agricultural organizations characterizing the level of economic production. The aim of the work is to substantiate the architecture of the tax incentive system for the industry, as well as to design further directions for the development of tax support for agriculture. Research methods include typical grouping, machine learning models (decision tree, random forest and gradient boosting). As a result, the methodological approach was tested and significant differences in the performance indicators of agricultural organizations depending on the choice of taxation systems were substantiated, and net profit forecasting models were built for each of them. The constructed models allow us to identify the nature of the influence of tax factors on the performance of agricultural entities. Recommendations for improving the system of tax incentives for the industry are presented. The developed methodological approach helps to assess the differences in taxation systems using the grouping method and machine learning methods, as well as to build high-quality forecasting models. The scientific novelty of the study consists in developing a set of proposals for improving tax incentives for the industry, taking into account (1) the optimal architecture of the tax support system at the macro level and (2) systemic problems of applying industry tax incentives at the micro level. Proof of the optimality of the architecture of the tax incentive system for agriculture was revealed using our methodology for assessing the impact of the tax regime on the performance indicators of agricultural producers, based on the use of machine learning methods
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Статья научная
This study includes development of a methodology of forming anti-crisis management strategy directly for a wholesale trade organization. The solution of this problem is urgent today as Russian and world literature reflects experience of anti-crisis management only in the industry. The study formulates and systemizes factors that give impetus to development of an organization in the crisis and which are the basis of the proposed methodology. Risks associated with realization of the anti-crisis management methodology are also taken into consideration. The study conclusions are made.
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Development of a new technological paradigm in the arctic regions in 1990-2021
Статья научная
Research on the evolution of technological paradigms in various countries should be continued at the level of regions and municipalities. The article fills the gap, as its purpose is to study the formation of a new technological paradigm in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. We identified the chronology of the new technological paradigm deployment in the Russian Arctic over the past three decades; explained the reasons for making Nenets Autonomous Okrug a pilot site for technological, organizational, institutional experiments and innovations in the Arctic zone; we characterized factors impeding and promoting the formation of a new technological paradigm in the Murmansk Oblast. We determined the methods of research (system-wide approach, retrospective, cartographic, comparative, structural analysis) depending on the chosen theoretical and methodological framework: the theory of techno-economic paradigms, the theory for economic development of the North and the Arctic, the concept of evolutionary economic geography. As a result, we have identified and characterized five stages in the formation of a new technological paradigm in the Arctic in 1990-2021. We use the data on Nenets Autonomous Okrug to show the favorable role of small and medium-sized natural assets and the organizational diversity of extractive companies, an active policy of the regional government that pursues the principles of constructive duality at the first stage of the formation of the new technological paradigm. We also consider the data on the Murmansk Oblast to show the role of the resource monopoly of local large mining enterprises in inhibiting the entry of new actors and the deployment of new projects in the mining development of the region. We conclude that the formation of the new technological paradigm in the Arctic regions is characterized by significant unevenness (asynchrony): the susceptibility of the Arctic territory to the arrival of new actors, technologies and institutions is determined by the age of the resource province, type of natural resource, size and forms of location of the main deposits. The most important task for future research is to study optimal forms of state influence on the development of a new way of life in the territories of the Arctic with tools and institutions of active industrial policy at the federal, regional and municipal level.
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Development of entrepreneurship in the region: drivers and problems
Статья научная
The paper examines drivers of entrepreneurship development in the region on the example of Ural Federal District regions. The goal of the research is to identify drivers of and problems in the development of entrepreneurship in the region. We use theoretical, logical, statistical, analytical, and index methods. Scientific novelty of the study lies in the fact that it considers global experience of research entrepreneurship as applied to the level of region, identifies sets of factors that promote the development of entrepreneurship in the Tyumen Oblast, and assesses their impact on the level of entrepreneurship development. The paper also considers problems in the development of entrepreneurship in the Tyumen Oblast. We propose indicators that assess implementation efficiency of regional (state) programs for entrepreneurship support. We carry out a comparative analysis of some aspects of governmental support provided to small business in some countries. By 2016, Russia has made a breakthrough and improved economic environment for doing business, but there has been a decline in institutional environment indicators...
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Development of green business as an approach to financing the greening of economy
Статья научная
The issues of green economy development are in the focus of attention of Russian and foreign scientists. Its formation was influenced by environmental activities financing sources. The article presents the description of budgetary and extra-budgetary environmental protection financing. Special attention is paid to the need to strengthen private financial support of environmentally determined activities, which can be implemented as part of development of ecopreneurship. The purpose of this article is to identify the trends in budgetary and extra-budgetary environmental protection financing and resource conservation in the Russian Federation and to rationalize theoretically the necessity of business participation in financing of environment-related business ideas, which is aimed at supporting the greening of economic activity at the regional level. The methods of empirical and statistical research, systematization and generalization of information have been used. SWOT analysis has identified the strengths and weaknesses of green business, as well as the opportunities for and threats to its development...
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Development of growth poles in the Russian Federation: direct and reverse effects
Статья научная
The understanding of economic polarization as one of the possible sources of economic development is rooted in a number of scientific papers and in strategic planning documents. This understanding requires the revision of the implications that emerge due to the formation and development of growth poles. The goal of our present research is to develop an approach that will help assess the impact of growth poles on the surrounding space. Scientific novelty of the work consists in the justification of an approach to the identification of direct and reverse effects of the development of growth poles, which allows us to measure the scale of the impact they have on the territories concentrated around. Theoretical and methodological basis of the study is formed by a set of scientific ideas in the field of regional economics, spatial analysis and modeling. Using the assessment of spatial autocorrelation (by determining the values of Moran's Global Index and Moran's Local Index) and the implementation of cartographic analysis, we assess the relationships between individual constituent entities of the Russian Federation according to the resulting parameters of territory development such as “permanent population” and “gross regional product”. According to the calculations we prove that the influence of growth poles on the surrounding space is ambiguous: the territories located near large-scale socio-economic systems do not receive a significant impetus to their own development; moreover, they lose the resources they already have. The revealed pronounced reverse effect of economic polarization determines the importance of applying a balanced approach to the use of growth poles as a tool of economic development. The results of our research can be used in the work of public authorities at different levels and can also form the basis for further studies related to the measurement of the effects of development of growth poles and the development of priorities and mechanisms of regional policy, taking into account the interests of the territories that surround them.
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Development of health economics for improving the quality of life
Статья научная
The article deals with the developmental problems of public health in Russia as a key factor of improving the quality of life and providing the high efficiency of domestic economy. It shows the dynamics of main health indicators in the last two decades. Economic and organizational, social and cultural reasons for Russia’s lagging behind the developed countries in terms of public health are characterized in the article. It focuses on the essential territorial differentiation of public health standards in the country and represents the specific indicators of these differences for federal districts, which allow us to see the complexity and volume of health problems. The main ways and directions of progressive public health development in Russia are indicated in the article.
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Development of inland waterway transport in Russia and the experience of China
Статья научная
In Soviet times, inland waterway transport played a decisive role in the exploration of the country’s remote areas. The year 1985 witnessed the peak of its development, when the world’s highest volume indicators were achieved. Currently, China is the world leader in this sector, having managed to transform inland waterway transport from an inconspicuous economic sector into a dynamically developing means of transport within 45 years. China’s achievements deserve attention, especially in terms of the scale and speed of the process. While Russia and China differ significantly in population density, production volumes, and seasonality of water transport, they have certain similar characteristics as well (vastness of territory, length and configuration of inland waterways, possibility to reach poorly developed areas). The article identifies four stages in the development of inland waterway transport, differing in goals, objectives, financing mechanisms and tools for the implementation of development goals set for a specific stage. It is shown that the development of inland waterway transport in the Russian Federation is determined by the complex economic and geographical characteristics of the country and by accumulated system-wide problems in the development of the sector. The latter include insufficient financing of inland waterways; shortage of modern vessels; low investment attractiveness and insufficient investment in the industry; poor interaction with other means of transport, which deprives inland waterway transport of part of the cargo base; shortage of modern transshipment complexes; outflow of skilled personnel from the industry. In order for the Russian inland waterway transport to regain its influence on the country’s territorial development, it is necessary to use China’s experience in organizing financing projects in this area, developing a training system, and combating interspecific competition in transport. Scientific significance of the study lies in the theoretical analysis and comparative assessment of the level of development of inland waterway transport in Russia and China. Proposals for addressing the accumulated problems of Russian river transport based on the use of China’s experience in promoting the activities of inland waterway transport are of practical importance.
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Development of marriage and family relationships in the northern regions of Russia
Статья научная
The article deals with the mechanism of modern demographic development in Russia’s northern regions. The article studies the dynamics of marriage processes in the North in the post-war period, and reveals the current specifics of marriage and family relations. The authors analyze in more detail the situation in the two big northern republics: the Komi Republic and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). They identify factors that determined a significant decrease of marriage rate in the 1990s and the relative normalization of marital and family processes in recent years. The article outlines the main directions of demographic policies in the northern regions.
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Статья научная
The relevance of the study is due to the fact that the process of import substitution, which is on the rise in the country, requires a reliable and accurate quantitative assessment of its effectiveness. The main idea of the study is to assess the effectiveness of import substitution as a complex multidimensional phenomenon characterized by multidirectional and contradictory dynamics of its processes in their unity, relationship and mutual influence. The goal of the study is to develop a method for integrated assessment of import substitution effectiveness on the basis of theoretical substantiation of its principles and provisions. To achieve the goal we use such methods as analysis and generalization of existing methodological approaches to its assessment. The hypothesis of the study is based on the fact that the method we have developed allows us not only to make a reliable assessment of the effectiveness of import substitution, but also to predict the directions of its increase. Our research develops the works of other authors in the field of integrated assessment of import substitution effectiveness: we elaborate a comprehensive system of target performance indicators (the system has not been used before) and assess the trends in the development of import substitution processes structured in the context of domestic production, export and import of goods subject to import substitution, according to the degree of achievement of these indicators. The study was carried out with the use of methods such as factor determinant and structural-dynamic analysis, and multi-criteria optimization method. The technique was tested on the example of food products - the flagship of domestic import substitution. We reveal the processes that hinder import substitution in the food industry and some positive trends in import substitution that confirm its effectiveness. We calculate an optimal structure of commodity resources, which ensures the achievement of import substitution effectiveness in the food industry to the fullest extent. It is advisable to apply our technique in the field of import substitution in individual commodity groups, each of which has its own features in the formation of imports, exports, domestic production and their specifics in the context of research tasks. We plan to continue our research in the development of methods for a comprehensive assessment of the impact of import substitution on economic growth in the country.
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Статья научная
Nowadays the management of resources allocated to science depends directly on the availability of information about the state of scientific research in the country and abroad. Due to the increasing number of research projects that receive public funding and that are carried out with the support from various funds, special importance is attached to the issue concerning the analysis and comprehensive evaluation of scientific research performance and the choice of the most promising research topics. The article substantiates the necessity to develop a national information and analytical system of citation, which should become part of the system to assess the effectiveness and performance of Russian scientists and scientific organizations. The author uses the analysis of bibliometric indicators of the Russian Science Citation Index and shows the evolution of publication activity of organizations engaged in economic research and subordinate to the Federal Agency of Scientific Organizations of Russia...
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Статья научная
Regional economic processes determine the scale of functioning and performance of small and medium-sized enterprises due to their specific involvement in the economy of a territorial entity and quick response to changes in the external environment. The unevenness and high differentiation of economic development in the territories determine the heterogeneity and differences in the level of entrepreneurship development in Russia. In this regard, the aim of our study is to arrange Russian regions into clusters according to indicators reflecting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises and macroeconomic parameters characterizing the economic environment of their functioning, which either acts as a driving force or creates obstacles. The novelty of the approach consists not only in the fact that it integrates enterprises’ development indicators and indicators of the external economic environment of their functioning into the clustering parameters, but also in the formation of final clusters, taking into account the grouping of regions for each year of the period under consideration. This makes it possible to determine the stability of the territory in the group or to track the movement between groups. The k-means method is chosen for clustering. Clustering was carried out according to Federal State Statistics Service data from 2015 to 2021 in 85 regions of Russia. Five clusters have been obtained, whose features confirm the assumption that the development of small and medium-sized enterprises is determined by the economic development of the territory as an external environment of their functioning. Nevertheless, a special second cluster was identified, with the presence of restrictions on the use of the potential of the economic environment, which includes regions that differ in the average level of development of small and medium-sized enterprises against the background of high economic development. The results obtained can be used in the elaboration and implementation of policies to improve the sphere of small and medium-sized businesses at the level of the state as a whole and at the level of a particular region. Further development of our findings may consist in changing indicators or including other clustering algorithms, further typologizing regions or conducting correlation and regression analysis within individual clusters.
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