Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Journal articles - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
All articles: 1817
Scientific article
The article is based on the results of the author’s empirical research exploring the characteristics of the traditional nature management of indigenous peoples of Siberia. The article proposes the mechanisms of implementing the potential of traditional nature management and provides recommendations for enhancing the efficiency of this type of economic activity in the case of the Republic of Khakassia.
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Current work on corruption in Russia
Scientific article
“Corruption is the system feature of post-Soviet Russian capitalism (scientific and journalistic notes)” - so much paper, placed in two editions of “Russian Economic Journal” for 20111. The author Yuri Boldyrev, Ph.D. in Economics, was in 1992 - 1993 Head of Control Department of the Presidential Administration, in 1993 - 1995 - member of the Council of Federation in 1995 - 2001 worked as deputy chairman of the Accounting Chamber. He is currently a columnist, “Literary Gazette” and the online newspaper«STOLETIE.RU». At the beginning of the work stated that it specifically argued very “pregnant” for the authorities and society thesis, anyway appearing in all the texts on contemporary Russian author. To solve this problem, in our opinion, the author has succeeded, which greatly facilitated the careful structuring of the article.
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Decoupling effect in the industrial region (the case of the Kemerovo oblast)
Scientific article
The article considers the possibility of eco-economic decoupling in the industrial region (in the case of the Kemerovo Oblast). The analysis of the trends of economic development and production output volumes (in particular, in the coal industry) has proved that there are no decoupling effects in the region. The increase in production volumes has a direct negative impact on the environment. In order to change the situation, a substantial increase of investment in environmental protection is required, otherwise the ecological situation in the Kemerovo Oblast will deteriorate even more significantly.
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Scientific article
Moving towards “green” economy is currently a priority direction for the development of many countries, including Russia. One of the key aspects of the concept of green economy is achieving decoupling or misalignment of economic growth rates, resource consumption and negative environmental impact. The purpose of the article is to analyze the decoupling of negative environmental impact and resource consumption in economic activity in border regions of the Russian East and the entities of the Baikal region with cross-border economic relations with China. The research novelty lies in identifying the possible impact of cross-border position on environmental and economic development of the areas under review. Long-term experience of cooperation with the neighboring state demonstrates that prospects are followed by environmental problems since the economy of Siberian and Far Eastern regions is consistently focused on raw materials. The decoupling coefficient is calculated to identify the misalignment between economic growth rates and environmental pollution...
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Deep processing - the main direction in enhancing the efficiency of fish utilization
Scientific article
The article proves that the modern level of processing of catches does not correspond to the objectives of marine fishing development contained in the Concept for the development of fishery in the Russian Federation for the period until 2020 and the Russian Federation State Programme “Development of fishery complex”. The article proves that to achieve the targets set out in the documents, the following measures should be carried out: the development of coastal fishing, the introduction of innovation technologies and equipment at coastal enterprises, the creation of integrated enterprises for production and processing of aquatic organisms, the enhancement of export efficiency, the promotion of unloading fish products onto Russia’s shores.
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Scientific article
Global crises and foreign trade restrictions imposed on the Russian economy slow down its growth, affecting export-oriented regions to a great extent. Retaliatory economic measures, including those aimed to promote structural transformation of the economy, require its key directions to be defined. We attempt to determine priorities of the structural transformation of the Vologda Oblast economy by searching for promising types of economic activity. For this purpose, we study theoretical foundations of the search for priorities of sectoral development, elaborate and test a methodological approach to the search for promising branches of regional economic specialization, and identify areas of development for potential growth points. Using the materials of the Vologda Oblast, we make a list of activities whose development is promising from the point of view of long-term economic growth and identify potential opportunities for their introduction into the region’s economy. Scientific novelty of our work consists in the development and testing of our own tools for finding priorities for the structural transformation of the regional economy based on identifying promising economic specializations. The information base includes works of Russian and foreign researchers in the field of industrial and spatial development, data from state statistics, the Federal Institute of Industrial Property, scientific electronic library eLIBRARY. ru and regional input-output tables for the Vologda Oblast. The findings of the work can be used in the management of the region’s sectoral and spatial development and in research on the issues under consideration.
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Scientific article
The article considers the main features of demographic development in Russia and Belarus, and shows the similarity of demographic problems and the presence of demographic threats. It examines the state policy in the sphere of human reproduction, and for the Russian Federation it substantiates the necessity of influencing the demographic processes from the viewpoint of national security. The article proves that the Union State countries should unite their efforts for overcoming negative demographic trends.
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Demographic development resources: on the unification of concepts in demographic research
Scientific article
The article attempts to distinguish a variety of related and consonant fundamental demographic terms, including: demographic development, demographic policy, demographic development (policy) tools, demographic development (policy) mechanism, demographic potential, demographic resilience. We also focus on the synthesis of a new concept - demographic development resources. To this end, we make an overview of current demographic research by Russian and foreign authors, consider their definitions of the above terms, and identify common and contradictory features of the concepts. We make an attempt to critically comprehend and generalize disparate approaches in order to systematize and unify the terminological framework of demographic research. During the analysis, we discover an entity that is invisibly present in the terminological framework of demographic development and demographic policy, but is not clearly defined. In order to introduce the appropriate term, we compare the interpretations ofthe terms “source”, “resource” and “potential”. As a result, we choose “demographic development resource” as the most accurate term for this phenomenon. Having systematized disparate approaches and clarified the meaning of individual components, we propose a definition for the term “demographic development resource” - it is a set of available tangible and intangible assets that can be used to manage demographic and migration processes. The identified concept, its term and the definition we propose should form the basis for research in a new scientific direction. In the future, it is necessary to typologize demographic development resources, identify and calculate their amount in Russia, assess their sufficiency, find the tools to influence individual resources, investigate the necessary and sufficient amounts of resources, as well as design a mechanism for achieving and maintaining their required amount, using the example of Russia.
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Demographic dividends: formation and use in the CIS and the Baltic countries
Scientific article
The article investigates one of the most pressing problems of the modern world - demographic aging and its impact on demographic security in the CIS. Changes in the age structure are happening on a global scale, and show increasing dynamics. At the same time, demographic aging has significant regional differences. The purpose of the study is to identify general trends, regional differences in population aging in the post-Soviet countries, the formation and use of demographic dividends. When analyzing the second demographic dividend, we propose to apply the term “resource potential of the older generation” that largely determines the capabilities of the aging population. We use the following methods: logical analysis, synthesis, generalization, induction and deduction, a systems approach to the analysis of demographic phenomena, calculations of demographic coefficients used in assessing the age structure, its dynamics and the formation of demographic dividends. The information base of the study includes data of the current accounting of demographic events presented by the Statistical Committee of the CIS, materials of Eurostat, the UN, domestic and foreign scientific publications, as well as materials of own research on the topic of the article. The main results of the work confirm the conclusion that the post-Soviet countries have significant differences in the age structure of their population and the intensity of demographic aging. We determine that the acceleration of the aging process was a general trend in most of them. This brings to the fore the problems associated with the need to form and effectively use the second demographic dividend, which will promote economic welfare of the countries.
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Demographic education in modern Russia: mismatch between the needs and opportunities
Scientific article
Negative trends in major demographic processes, aggravated by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, require not only an active demographic policy, but also thoughtful and well-grounded management decisions. This raises the requirements for the qualifications of employees in the field of science, education and management personnel in terms of their understanding of complex and multifactor demographic processes. Consequently, the need for training and retraining of demographers is also increasing. The purpose of the work is to assess the current state of demographic education in Russia and the possibilities of its development. The article presents an overview of foreign and national educational and scientific practice in the field of demographic education. We find that the “Demography” field is included in the enlarged group “3. Social sciences, business and law”; therefore, most educational institutions implement educational programs in the “Sociology” field; more often these are master’s degree programs. Scientific institutions focus on collaborating with educational institutions and pursue an educational and scientific trajectory (for example, the USA); they can also work autonomously by responding to the needs of the state and society (France, Germany). We also review Russian practice of implementing the educational process under the program “Demography”. We find out that only three universities conduct educational activities under this program. However, the scientific and educational potential for training demographers, taking into account “non-core” universities and academic research organizations, is available in the capital and in the regions. Nevertheless, the presence of laboratories specializing in demographic research proves the relevance of demographic knowledge in various regions of Russia. The analysis of departments’ teaching staff confirms their high educational and scientific potential. An overview of the work of scientific institutions and departments at universities indicates that vigorous scientific and research activity in the “Demography” field is being conducted in Russia. The analysis shows that in modern Russia, the issues of standardization of this area of work and education have not yet been fully worked out. We substantiate a system of successive stages for development of an educational standard in the “Demography” field and approval of the “Demographer” professional standard.
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Demographic evolution trends and prospects in Russia and the Vologda oblast
Scientific article
The article deals with the analysis of demographic situation in the Vologda Oblast against the background of the global and Russian tendencies. It has been revealed that depopulation is observed in most developed countries, and depopulation growth rates are reduced in developing countries. Depopulation processes are retained in Russia, which can hinder social and economic development and contradict the country’s geopolitical goals. The Vologda Oblast is one of the “typical” Russian regions, where demographics are close to average ones. The demographic prospects of Russia and the Vologda Oblast indicate negative trends in the medium term. It is possible to reverse the situation by increasing the number of children in families, that is by changing the model of population’s fertility.
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Demographic policy transformation in the northeastern provinces of China at the present stage
Scientific article
The Northeastern provinces of China are strategic territories from a geopolitical point of view; this fact determines the importance and relevance of studying their characteristic fertility trends and family planning directions. The demographic processes taking place here correspond to the general trends in China, but most indicators are lower than in other areas. The main objective of the study is to identify the features of demographic processes and directions of demographic policy implementation in the Northeastern provinces of China (Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang) in the 21st century. The study is based on the analysis of the results of the National Population Census of the Republic of China (2000, 2010 and 2020) and legal documents regulating the policy of fertility and family planning. We show that the Northeastern provinces have a maximum proportion of families with one child, and the proportion of families with two children is two times lower than the average in China. The number of women of fertile age has decreased by a third, and the average age of women who have entered into their first marriage is increasing. We reveal that after the liberalization of the two-child policy in China, the family planning system includes previously used measures to support the elderly and families with one child, as well as new methods of birth support. Despite the formation of a unified national model of fertility support, the differences at the provincial level primarily relate to the remuneration and social security system of the population. Longer periods of maternity leave have been defined for the Northeastern provinces, and additional payments for the birth of children in border regions have been introduced.
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Demographic problems of the republic of Belarus and their solutions
Scientific article
Last year the realization term of the National Program of demographic security of the Republic of Belarus for 2007-2010 was over. The author of the article analyzes the implementation of the program paper from the angle of some certain indices. Some current demographic problems of the country are also considered, short-term and long-term perspectives are estimated. The author suggests some ways for further protection of demographic security of the Republic of Belarus.
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Demographic resources of Russia: Variability of approaches and assessments
Scientific article
In the context of a deep demographic crisis faced by many countries in the world, the issue of identifying and using demographic development resources as a key component of national security is becoming important. This article continues a series of publications by the authors devoted to the study of fundamental concepts of demographic science. The aim of the article is a critical understanding and systematization of existing approaches to defining the term “demographic resource”, identifying common and contradictory interpretations in order to unify and clarify the terminology of demographic science. For this purpose, the article provides an overview of current studies by Russian and foreign authors in the field of population, presents their definitions of the listed terms, and identifies common and contradictory features. The authors identified four groups of the most common interpretations of “demographic resources”: population size, labor force, English-language and alternative interpretations. The authors also offer an interpretation of “demographic resources” as “prosperous young families with children”. An attempt was made to critically understand and generalize disparate approaches in order to systematize and unify the terminology of research in the field of population. The study used methods of comparative analysis, content analysis of scientific literature, as well as statistical analysis using current data from Rosstat. The novelty of the work lies in the proposal of the authors’ definition of the concept of “demographic resources”, taking into account the specifics of modern demographic challenges and meeting the tasks of public administration in the field of population. The main results are presented by a grouping of approaches, accompanied by a statistical assessment of the demographic resources of Russia. Future research will be aimed at a more in-depth analysis of each of the identified types of demographic resources, as well as the development of methodological recommendations for their practical use in the state demographic policy of Russia
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Demographic security of Russia: trends and forecasts
Scientific article
Currently, the analysis of trends and the assessment of promising parameters characterizing the situation regarding demographic security in Russia attract the attention of the country’s leading scientists, officials, managers of various levels, and politicians. Such interest is due to the understanding of the role of the demographic component as the key one in ensuring national security. The parameters of demographic security are contained in several strategic initiatives, in particular in the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation. This determines not just the relevance, but also a dramatic increase in the importance of analyzing the current state and trends of demographic indicators, as well as building their forecast estimates in order to design and construct more favorable parameters for the development of society. Methodological basis of the study includes techniques and methods of comparative analytics, descriptive statistics and adaptive forecasting. The analysis and development of forecasts were carried out on the basis of official statistics provided by Rosstat. When assessing differences in population dynamics n accordance with current accounting and with the data obtained as a result of recalculation using the results of the 2020 All-Russian Population Census, we identified different periods of depopulation. The analysis of retrospective data on demographic parameters and the demographic forecasts determine in the short term the continuation of the second wave of depopulation, while its attenuation and the vector toward achieving demographic security are possible if an optimistic scenario is implemented. An optimistic scenario (achieving an increase in the birth rate) is assumed when developing a mechanism that allows implementing the proposed set of recommendations - measures aimed at increasing the birth rate.
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Demographic studies in VolRC RAS: formation of the scientific school
Review article
The article describes main stages of the formation of the demographic studies school in the Vologda Research Center of RAS. We present the development of the system of thematic areas of employees’ research historically: from its emergence until the present moment. The relevance of sociodemographic topics is related to the necessity to respond to demographic challenges of social development, such as depopulation, caused by low birth rates and relatively high mortality, population ageing, and the prevalence of poor health. Monitoring of trends and identification of determinants lead to a comprehensive understanding of the nature and causes of demographic dynamics, adding new knowledge to the demographic science. These studies help to find tools for preserving people in the country and in the region, strengthening public health, and adapting to the transformation of the population’s age structure. The thematic topic of works covers all demographic processes: birth rate, mortality, marriage and divorce; patterns of the public health development and conditions for the formation of a healthy generation are studied, monitoring and evaluation of the demographic policy effectiveness are carried out. Due to the significance of behavioral factors of demographic development, the research of the population’s demographic behavior is of special importance in the studies. VolRC RAS develops and implements the system of matrimonial, reproductive, self-preservation, and migration behavior monitoring using sociological methods. Despite depopulation, studies on the health formation, first of all, among children are still relevant. At the current stage of Russia’s social development, social status of a family, the level of pedagogical competence and medical activity act as important health determinants together with external socio-economic conditions. The purpose of this work is to review socio-demographic studies which have been conducted by employees of the Vologda Research Center of RAS for the past 30 years.
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Demographic theories and the regional aspect of population ageing
Scientific article
Population ageing is a major demographic trend of our time. The increase in the proportion and number of elderly people requires that the governments of “ageing” countries develop measures to mitigate the effects of demographic ageing reflected in two interrelated aspects: maintaining sustainable socio-economic development and ensuring a decent quality of life for the elderly. At the same time, as the experience of developed and developing countries shows, in order to ensure effective implementation of the measures it is necessary to take into consideration regularities and territorial features of the age structure transformation. The relevance of our research is determined by the need for scientific understanding of the process of demographic ageing taking into account the system nature of its characteristics (global nature and inevitability in terms of the narrowed reproduction of the population) and the multiplicity of implications for socio-economic development. The aim of our research is to identify the regularities and regional features of population ageing...
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Demographic transformations of the Russian regional space
Scientific article
The paper considers the transformations of the quantitative components of human capital, which is the main driver of economic growth in the material, institutional and mental space. According to the author's concept of stratified space, the processes of self-reproduction and self-renewal of a system are carried out in the material space. This can be determined by the indicators of fertility, mortality and migration in the demographic subsystem. The process of self-regulation of a system on the basis of legislative acts and behavior patterns is carried out in the institutional space. Institutional transformations are also manifested in the implementation of federal target programs for socio-economic development, affecting the state of the demographic subsystem. The processes of self-reflection, self-determination and self-development are carried out in the mental space. Mental transformations in the demographic subsystem are manifested in the change of value orientations...
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Demographic trends of the Pskov oblast
Scientific article
The article deals with the dynamics of demographic processes in the Pskov Oblast that has been holding leading positions in Russia in terms of natural population decline for many years. It shows the connection between a high mortality rate and health situation and suggests the ways to improve the demographic indices.
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Determinants of active longevity: results of a survey of Vologda long-livers
Scientific article
Population ageing is a major demographic challenge for the majority of developed and developing countries. The implications of population ageing are not reduced to purely economic aspects (increasing the burden on the working population, growing deficit of pension funds) and they lead to a change in people's attitude toward the elderly as a social group, the resource potential of which should be disclosed, the task being of major importance for any “ageing” country. At the same time, a priority of population policy in any country is to increase life expectancy of its citizens. Thus, given the forecast reduction in demand on the labor market and possible raise of the retirement age in Russia, authorities at all levels focus not just on the increase in life expectancy, but on active longevity of its citizens, which is reflected in the maintenance of physical and moral health of man for as long as possible. The paper investigates determinants of active longevity. The first part of the paper provides statistical analysis of prevalence of this phenomenon in various regions of the world and Russia...
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