Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1659
Monetary and financial issues of modern Russian economy: regional aspect
Статья научная
The article deals with the outcome of the meeting of the regional section of the permanent Russian-French seminar on the issues of monetary and financial problems of Russian economy, held in Vologda, in April 2010.
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Monitoring of economic and social processes (the case of inter-ethnic relations)
Статья научная
The article highlights the importance of inter-ethnic relations monitoring in connection with the changes in the ethnic composition of population, caused by labour migration. It also points out that the study and adoption of competent managerial decisions in the sphere of inter-ethnic relations will promote peace among different nationalities living on the same territory, since ethnic conflicts pose a serious threat to the integrity of the state. The article analyzes the results of three monitorings carried out in the Komi Republic in 2008 - 2010, and it defines several topical blocks: the assessment of the residence of different ethnic groups on the same territory, the likelihood of ethnic conflicts occurrence, their causes, the attitude of the local population towards migrants (migrant workers).
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Monitoring of opportunities for development of self-employment in the Novosibirsk oblast
Статья научная
The article, based on data of three sociological researches held in the Novosibirsk Oblast, considers development problems of self-employment among the unemployed population as one of the directions of the active policy promoting population's employment and reducing unemployment. The dynamics of recovery from unemployment is studied, namely the unemployed population's willingness and readiness for self-employment, the focus on its specific types, as well as on the necessary forms of support. The research has revealed favorable changes and trends in life and consciousness of unemployed citizens and their attitude to self-employment: the decreasing amount of citizens compelled to as little money as possible on most necessary things and living in poverty, growing incomes from self-employment in personal subsidiary plots, the increasing amount of people ready for self-employment, social mobility and self-reliance. But paternalistic moods of half of the respondents and the dominance of passive and compelled strategies raise concerns...
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Статья научная
The article presents the results of the next phase of the study on the subject “Socio-cultural portrait of the region”. It gives the estimation of the demographic situation, standard of living and welfare of the Vologda Oblast residents. Besides, the article shows the people’s assessment of the performance of the authorities, social well-being and degree of safety, as well as their trust in the government. All these aspects are studied in their connection with social policy and social protection measures undertaken in the region. The study reveals that the society is disappointed in the actions of the authorities; it does not understand the true ultimate effect and the feasibility of ongoing regional social events. The greatest number of critical remarks addressed to local authorities comes from people with unstable position in life. Negative evaluations are also more likely expressed by the poorest population groups, by women, by the less educated, by village dwellers and urban-type settlements residents, as well as by individuals with a low level of education...
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Monitoring study of the quality of work with gifted schoolchildren in the Russian Federation regions
Статья научная
The article presents the results of research into the quality of work with talented schoolchildren in the Russian Federation subjects. It shows that it is the regional and municipal levels that should be most actively involved in the identification and development of such children. The author suggests his methodology of calculating the integral index of the quality of work with gifted schoolchildren in the regional educational systems. The article shows that Russia’s territories differ considerably according to this indicator. The highest value of the index is registered in the Volga Federal District (average rating is0.499) and the Central (0.480) Federal District. The constituent entities of the North Caucasian (0.303)and Far Eastern (0.358) federal districts have the lowest average rating. The regions were divided into five groups by the index of quality of work with gifted schoolchildren. The Vologda Oblast joined the group in which the level of quality of work with gifted schoolchildren was above average; the Oblast ranked 22nd in the country and 5th in the Northwestern Federal District...
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Moral aspect of young people's subjective competitiveness
Статья научная
The issues of competitiveness and competitive relationships are usually considered from an economic point of view, bypassing socio-cultural aspects. The paper presents a sociological analysis of young people’s competitive and moral orientations. The consideration of the emphasized problem field allows us to determine the connotation of competitive relationships, from positive (“ethical” competition) to negative (“aggressive”, “predatory” competition). The authors assess the format of competitive relationships set up by the younger generation considering themselves competitive, and those young people who reject their own involvement in competition in any form. A new scientific result, the understanding of competitiveness as a subjective phenomenon is obtained. The author’s system of empirical indicators for evaluating subjective competitiveness is also an element of scientific novelty. The presented material is aimed at achieving a specific goal to determine the relationship between the young people’s subjective competitiveness and their desire to adhere to stable value standards and high moral principles in behavior. The following tasks are solved within the framework of the research: the key characteristics of competition as a socio-cultural phenomenon are identified; young people’s attitude to competitiveness is studied; the relationship between competitive orientations, individual responsibility for their own actions, locus of control, trust and respect for others, readiness to help others is revealed. The empirical basis of the sociological research was the data from a questionnaire survey of young people in the Tyumen Oblast (2017, 3403 people, including 1087 high school students; 1360 students; 956 working young people under 30). It is found that the respondents not considering themselves competitive characterize competitive interaction with more negative ratings than young people who are actually involved in competition. Young people with low competitive orientations demonstrate a lack of active life position, they are not ready to create their own business and take responsibility for their lives. The highest percentage of competitive respondents is found among working youth. The author analyzes the world outlook, the general culture of high school students, students and working youth, the relationship between their competencies and competitiveness. Worldview attitudes, values, and moral guidelines are identified as the key determinants shaping young people’s competitiveness. It is concluded that competitive youth tend to adhere to high moral principles.
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Mortgage availability vs. availability of housing. We wanted the best, but it turned out...?
Статья научная
The Russian government's decision to lower mortgage rates in the spring of 2020 was announced as a measure to support the population during the spread of coronavirus infection. However, is this decision optimal and strategically correct in terms of improving the availability of housing for Russian citizens in the future? In the context of rising real estate prices, this issue in domestic economic research is insufficiently addressed. The relevance of the research is additionally conditioned by the evaluation necessity of the “bubble” formation probability on the primary housing market due to the “double boom”. In this paper, we present the study results of availability of housing dynamics for the period from 2000 to 2020. We identified the regions with the lowest and the highest availability of housing. We have studied the current state of the mortgage lending market in Russia and constructed a multiple regression factor model for residential real estate prices on the new housing market. The scientific novelty of the presented research consists in the determination of the reasons of the rash growth of real estate prices in the spring of 2020 on the Russian housing market and their forecast for the medium term period. It is recognized that in modern conditions the key factor contributing to the increase in primary housing prices is the reduction in mortgage interest rates on loans. The decision to sharply reduce the interest rate has caused an increased demand for housing and the subsequent excessive growth of prices, which ultimately did not contribute to the availability of housing. We substantiate the absence of a “bubble” and the reasons for lower prices on the Russian residential real estate market in the short term. We have implemented the forecasting of primary housing prices through a combination of traditional economic tools and neural networks. The persistence of significant price levels on the Russian market of new buildings in the medium term can be explained by the negative trends in the development of key influencing factors and other macroeconomic indicators characterizing the socio-economic development of the country. We have proposed managerial measures aimed at expanding the availability of housing for Russian citizens.
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Motivating young people's labor behavior as an opportunity for implementing financial strategies
Статья научная
The constantly changing socio-economic conditions in Russia attract the researchers’ attention to the urgent problem of unemployment, in particular among young people. The article, based on the results of the study (conducted in Moscow in 2017) obtained using sociological methods - qualitative (expert interviews) and quantitative (questionnaires), discusses various barriers to the implementation of the labor potential of young professionals (aged 23-35) in the labor market in Moscow; special attention is paid to factors that influence labor motivation. The age group under review has an absolutely objective attitude towards vulnerable population groups in the labor market. The purpose of the present research is to identify the dominant factors limiting the use of labor potential of young people, and analyze the current trends in the labor market which help critically assess the prospects for realizing their abilities in labor activity for further development of financial practices...
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Motives of youth migration to the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation at the present stage
Статья научная
The relevance of the study is that migration plays a significant role in the population decline and changes in the socio-demographic structures of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. Taking into account the negative demographic trends that hinder real opportunities to natural reproduction of the population, it is necessary to consider the existing potential for youth migration to the Arctic zone and to study the motives for migration substantively. The main idea of the study lies in the fact that motives for youth migration to the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation have place-specific characteristics, and studying the motives for migration will potentially strengthen the motivational tools for population attraction. The aim of the work is to identify the motives for youth migration to the Russian Arctic in the context of the relationship between the meaning of migration for a person and the specifics of the territory. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the identification of the features of motives for migration behavior of young people who have experience of migration to the Russian Arctic from non-Arctic constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The revealed and substantiated features of the motives for youth migration to the Russian Arctic have practical and epistemological significance in the development of motivational tools for attracting qualified young people to the Arctic zone within the framework of demographic and employment policy. The main methods are statistical analysis, in-depth interview method, thematic analysis. Further research can be aimed at specifying and detailing the motives for migration in terms of gender aspect; features of return skilled migration of young people who left the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation to receive education; and supplemented by expert interviews on the problems of organizing the system of attracting qualified personnel from non-Arctic territories to the region.
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Municipal-private partnership in education: infrastructural aspect
Статья научная
The article considers the specifics of implementation of municipal-private partnership projects in the education system of the Russian Federation. The authors use the following research methods: document analysis, expert interviews (heads of local authorities, entrepreneurs from the Moscow Oblast). The goal of this article is to study specific features of public-private partnership in education, to carry out comparative analysis of the estimates that the heads of local authorities and the business community have with regard to these issues, to define the conditions for their effective interaction and its limiting factors. Attracting private investment in the development of the education system is limited by a narrow pragmatic focus of the government on the use of financial resources of business in municipal administration practice. Judging by the results of studies, the heads of local authorities understand the social partnership of business and government as gratuitous help from socially responsible companies who are willing to invest funds in the development of a municipality...
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National economic interests of Russia in modern geopolitical conditions
Статья научная
The article considers national economic interests that form the basis of national security (food, raw materials, finance, infrastructure including transport) and set the priorities for the development of econo mic sectors (industr y, scientific and technological development, entrepreneurship, social sector and innovation development). The authors carry out brief analysis for each type of national economic interests and find out how they are reflected in the national documents on socio-economic development and in international documents on economic cooperation with Russia's participation. These interests in the national aspect are reflected in the Concept for long-term socio-economic development, and in the strategies and state programs for development of economic sectors. As for the international economic aspect, the authors consider Russia's contracts with individual countries on trade and/or cooperation, the Agreement on the Eurasian Economic Union, the Declaration and agreements of the BRICS countries, the Program for Trade and Economic cooperation between the SCO countries, and international standards relating to socio-economic ratings and indexes...
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National economy development trends highlighted by leading scholarly journals
Статья научная
Currently, the Russian academic community faces an important task of providing information support to the scientific and technological development of the national economy, aimed, among other things, at minimizing the consequences of increasing information isolation, which is changing the established publishing patterns and destroying the working models of scientific journals. The hypothesis of our research is that journals, which are at the stage of the life cycle characterized by a continuous increase in publication citation, possess scientific maturity enabling them to integrate basic trends in the development of the national economy. Therefore, the aim of our study is to design a theoretical and methodological approach to identifying basic trends in the development of the national economy through content analysis of a pool of leading Russian journals of international level that are at the stage of scientific maturity. Methodological base includes a set of approaches to life cycle modeling: scientific school, scientific research, scientific data, scientific publication, scientific citation and other elements of scientific activity adapted to the specifics of periodicals’ functioning. To confirm the hypothesis and achieve the goal, the indicator “journal’s scientific maturity index” has been developed, the structural elements of which are two-year impact factors, five-year impact factors, number of article views per year, number of article downloads per year, probability of citation after reading. Methodological support for modeling is carried out with the use of assessment tools that allow determining the vector of comprehensive development of the journal by citation indicators. The methodological approach to life cycle modeling that we developed has been tested on the example of such journals as Vestnik MGIMO-Universiteta; Vestnik mezhdunarodnykh organizatsii: obrazovanie, nauka, novaya ekonomika; Zhurnal novoi ekonomicheskoi assotsiatsii; Mirovaya ekonomika i mezhdunarodnye otnosheniya; Sovremennaya Evropa; Voprosy ekonomiki; Forsait; Ekonomicheskaya politika; Ekonomika regiona; Ekonomicheskie i sotsial’nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz. As a result, we have found that academic journals which possess scientific maturity integrate ideas that can become the determinant of new directions for national economic development. The findings will be useful to the authorities involved in designing basic trends in the development of the national economy.
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Статья научная
Currently, the majority of scientific and expert community and politicians recognize the key role of “new industry” in economic growth of countries and their competitiveness in world markets. The new industrial policy - characterized as “industrial Renaissance” - of some leading countries (after the 2008 global financial crisis) combines focus on the development of breakthrough technology and a new approach to cooperation in the framework of formation and implementation of industrial policy. The existing Russian practice of formation and implementation of industrial policy is poorly linked to national priorities and the objectives of ensuring sustainable economic growth and increase in welfare. This hampers the effective use of the country's own resources in order to ensure competitiveness and progressive development. The author considers “national industrial policy” to be a set of measures that aim to develop the industrial sector and increase its competitiveness through the system interaction between the government, business and society; this set of measures also aims to provide sustainable economic growth and increase national welfare...
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National security strategy - 2021: positive experiences and conflicting expectations
Статья научная
In May 2016, analyzing the interim results of the third presidential term of V.V. Putin, as well as the National Security Strategy, signed by the head of state on December 31, 2015, we have concluded that “the contradictions existing today in the public administration system are a natural result of the President's activities” related to the unresolved task of “bringing the interests of the elites in line with the national security interests” (Source: Ilyin V.A. President Vladimir Putin's third four-year term: contradictory outcomes - an expected result. Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast, 2016, no. 2 (44). pp. 9-21). Five years later, in the middle of 2021, a number of internal and external political events (including the new National Security Strategy signed by the President of the Russian Federation on July 2, 2021) again actualizes the question of the need to analyze the key changes that have occurred in the country during this period. How have the Russian society and the public administration system changed? What conceptual problems are still unresolved? And the most important: what role can the current trends in the development of the state and society play in the context of ensuring Russia's national security, taking into account the current situation in the domestic and foreign political arena by the middle of 2021? The following material reflects the authors' point of view on these issues. Based on expert assessments, data of official statistics, and Russian and regional sociological studies, the article analyzes the essence and prospects for the implementation of specific provisions of the National Security Strategy 2021. The authors come to the conclusion that the Strategy objectively reflects the current position of Russia in the domestic and foreign political arena by the middle of 2021, while its key points are aimed at a longterm perspective and are focused primarily on strengthening moral component of the Russian elites and Russian society. This causes positive feelings, but at the same time, based on the analysis of the previous experience in achieving strategic goals and objectives set out in the “May decrees” and national projects, it leaves conflicting expectations about the realism of their practical implementation.
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National security strategy 2015 - a step towards the new phase of Russia's development
Ред. заметка
December 31, 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the new National Security Strategy. Having analysed the key provisions of this document, we conclude that this event can be regarded as a new and historically significant step toward the strengthening of the Russian statehood and transition to a new stage of development. The National Security Strategy-2015 stipulates that “the implementation of the government policy of the Russian Federation in the sphere of national security is carried out through the concerted actions of all the elements of its system under the supervision of the President of the Russian Federation and with the coordinating role of the Security Council of the Russian Federation”. Thus, the President takes on personal responsibility for ensuring the implementation of priority directions of state policy in the sphere of national security, and this is not only a timely step, it also demonstrates Vladimir Putin’s ability to assume the historical role of leader when Russia experiences hard times.
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Статья научная
In the previous issues of our journal12 we have repeatedly addressed the problem of ineffectiveness of the Government’s implementation of the President’s instructions, which Vladimir Putin voiced in his Addresses to the Federal Assembly, in “May Decrees”, etc. In the 2018-2024 political cycle, the main directions of state policy are implemented through 12 national projects. The comprehensive analysis of expert opinions urges us to talk about the threat of disruption of their implementation once again. The following materials analyze the essence of national projects, the dynamics of their implementation, since their adoption (2005), during V. Putin’s third presidential term (2012-2018), as well as the specifics of the current socio-political situation in Russia in 2018-2019, which urgently requires a qualitative increase in the responsibility of the elites for the comprehensive achievement of the targets specified in the national projects for 2018-2024. 1 See, for example, editorials in the following issues of Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast: vol. 11, no. 2 (2018); vol. 10, no. 3 (2017); no. 2 (26) (2013); no. 6 (30) (2013); no. 3(21) (2012).
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Nationwide poverty - “a threat to steady development and our demographic future”
Статья научная
In our paper “Trends in Public Opinion Regarding the Effectiveness of Public Administration. Presidential Cycles 2000-2021” published in the previous issue of the journal (December 2021), we identified several critical internal and external challenges that accompany the process of establishing a new Russian statehood and strengthening Russia’s geopolitical role in the context of the global historical process - the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world order. We identified the problem of poverty as one of the main “sore spots”, citing expert opinions and official statistical data revealing its scale and the complex nature of its implications. In the present article, we continue this topic and analyze in detail the problem of poverty - its geopolitical significance, objective and subjective components, how the 1 dynamics of the standard of living and quality of life are perceived in various socio-demographic groups, as well as the key reasons that, in our opinion, explain why poverty has been an acute problem for Russia for more than a decade.
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Natural resource-based industries of the Far East :new drivers of development
Статья научная
The goal of the paper is to study the manifestations of institutional innovations currently being implemented within the framework of a new development model for the Far East economy in the region’s natural resource-based sectors; another goal is to study the areas of Russian-Chinese cooperation, which affect the current state and prospects of development of these industries. The study is based on the theories of resource-based economy, and spatial economy, including regional economy. The main scientific problem raised in the article is at the junction of the studies related to the evaluation of public policy efficiency, system effects of resource projects and their localization at the regional level under the influence of foreign economic factors. The novelty of the research consists in the fact that it formulates and implements the research task of joint consideration of institutional innovations and external factors determining the potential for the development of natural resource sectors in the Far East; thus, the research helps obtain new scientific knowledge in the field of spatial economics...
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