Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1709
Noospheric economy as a planetary active economic sphere of civilization development
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Nowcasting migration using statistics of online queries
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Due to international migration’s growing importance in modern countries’ lives, there is an increasing need for reliable and relevant forecasts of this process, especially in today’s turbulent world. However, established migration forecasting procedures suffer from a number of limitations, against which innovative approaches based on big data, notably online searches made by potential migrants, offer many advantages. Because of their novelty, such tools have not yet revealed their full explanatory and predictive properties. The work explores the possibility of using these tools to predict the population flows within the post-Soviet space. We hypothesize that there is a statistical relationship between online queries about migration to Russia made by residents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and subsequent human flows from these countries to Russia. The hypothesis was tested using the migration statistics of Rosstat, the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, Google Trends data on search intensity, and Yandex Wordstat service of word matching for validation of search images. As a result of correlation and regression, we found a moderate dependence of the dynamics of human flows on previous queries, which is most evident at a lag of 6-9 months and at zero lag. Obtaining more accurate results in this and similar studies is hindered by the initial limited predictability of migration behavior due to its contextual, sometimes situational and irrational nature, as well as “noisiness” of statistics of queries and often the flows themselves. The search for universal algorithms of determination of relations between queries and migration flows is seen as the main direction of research in this field.
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Objectives and methods of analyzing energy efficiency in the economy
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Energy saving and improving energy efficiency of production are among economic development priorities in Russia and its regions. Energy efficiency issues are given a lot of attention in scientific research on the interrelation of economic and power engineering development. In order to select the methodological tools for regional studies, we have reviewed scientific publications that analyze and evaluate energy efficiency in the economy. As a result of the review, we highlight the relevant research objectives: 1) to clarify the trends and factors leading to changes in energy efficiency of the objects under consideration;2) to compare the energy efficiency of similar objects, to determine the causes of differences and possible growth potential; 3) to identify the spatiotemporal properties of energy variables and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth. In accordance with these research objectives we summarize the approaches and methods of statistical analysis, evaluation, and econometric modeling used to address them...
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The main focus of the article is one of the most pressing issues to date: how a public administration system of socioeconomic development of Russian rural territories corresponding to modern realities can be created? The authors have analyzed the main challenges and trends in the transformation of the management object. The first important trend is the formation of an active mobile social group of dachniki (summer residents) breaking the stereotypes about the extinction of the Russian village by their desire to buy real estate in rural areas. And furthermore, they have a request for environmental friendliness and aesthetics of the place of residence. They are joined by enterprising businessmen who are trying to become the leaders of a new resurgent village. However, the unattractiveness of rural areas for business has been revealed due to the lack of access to the main factors of production. All this is happening against the background of outdated rural engineering and social infrastructure, which requires high maintenance costs. However, the world does not stand still and the transition of humanity from an industrial to an information society is characterized by a change in the technological basis, a creative person becomes the main productive force. Today, all spheres of human activity are being digitalized, accessibility borders are being erased, and the time factor is being eliminated. Thus, rural areas should be integrated into these global processes. This, accordingly, requires fundamentally new approaches to the transformation of the subject of management and control actions. The authors propose a new approach for rural areas’ sustainable development through a range of measures: introducing strategic planning and project approach, development of local and territorial public selfgovernment, development of the local mixed economy, cooperation development, introduction of modern technologies, removal of legislative restrictions, introduction of PSEDA (Priority Social and Economic Development Area) mode, effective public administration.
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Nowadays, innovations are regarded as the main factor of economic growth in the region that is recognized by both public authorities and scientific community. In this regard, one of the major scientific challenges is to assess the contribution of an innovation factor to the results of the regional economic development. The researches of this problem presented in the literature are based on the use of production functions apparatus - Cobb - Douglas model, Solow growth model. The author suggests assessing the contribution of an innovation factor to the results of the regional economic development basing on the assessment of various aspects of effective innovation activity - the efficiency of innovation projects, innovation activity of enterprises in the region, management efficiency of innovation processes in the region. Integrated assessment proposes to compare in dynamics the growth of gross regional product and regional innovation cost.
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On assessing the impact of social risks on the life expectancy of economically active population
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Intensive transformations of public life generate a wide range of social risks that have a negative impact on the life expectancy of economically active population. In addition to the well-described risks (insurance, environmental, food), an increasing number of new threats are emerging (digitalization, pandemics, geopolitical challenges, etc.); this exacerbates issues related to the ability and possibility to adequately respond to environmental requirements at the individual level, and also determines the need for timely and correct management decisions in this area at the meso and macro levels. All this highlights the need to deepen the scientific understanding of the current structure of social risks and find new approaches to assessing the impact of social risks on the population. Thus, the aim of the study is to identify current social risks and assess their impact on the life expectancy of economically active population in Russian regions. The research data were derived from Rosstat’s statistics on the socio-economic situation of Russia’s regions for 2019-2022. At the stage of exploratory research, in order to clarify the structure and content of social risks, we used factor analysis, which determined the social risks relevant to the economically active population of Russian regions during the period under review; we also put forward their typology in terms of duration of exposure (systems and situational). Using automated regression modeling methods, we determined the importance and significance of the identified risks in each of the years under consideration (2019-2022). Scientific novelty of the study lies in proving that life expectancy of the economically active population of Russian regions is influenced by systems social risks typical for the entire period in question, as well as situational social risks that are short-term and that arise during the crisis. It is proved that the results obtained help to apply a differentiated approach to the implementation of measures to increase life expectancy - through long-term strategic programs to reduce the impact of systems social risks or targeted short-term solutions of a predominantly economic nature to overcome the negative impact of situational social risks, which can contribute to improving the effectiveness of governmental and regional social policy
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On ideologies and their bearers: revisiting the issue
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With the advent of the era of information and knowledge, ideologies are becoming increasingly important in the life of societies and determine their history. The role of ideologies has especially increased during the period of aggravation of the civilizational confrontation between the Collective West and those non-Western countries that are friendly toward Russia and China. The article defines the concept of ideology and provides a brief description of modern ideologies of the West and Russia. We prove that even a scientifically developed theory is very limited in its ability to identify the main patterns of societal development (due to the incomparable complexity of the knowable and the knower), and even more so to purposefully influence this development. There is a well-known Leninist formula: “An idea becomes a power when it takes hold of the masses”. But it is the elite, the ruling stratum, that develops an ideology, protects it from hostile influences, and communicates it to society. Based on the works of Russian and Western historians and sociologists, the paper describes the development of ideas about the ruling stratum, the elite as the bearer of ideologies and the dangers associated with its split. In Western countries, the function of selecting personnel for the elite is largely performed by the market mechanism of capital accumulation. In Russia and China, in the “ruling stratum - government” tier, the leading role is more often played by the government, which largely forms both the ideology and the ruling stratum. In modern Russia, one of the crucial tasks is to create mechanisms for the selection of personnel and creation of privileged conditions for the ruling stratum in a situation of existing unjustified socio-economic inequality. The article discusses methods for practical solution of this problem. The presented material can be used to determine the priority of the tasks facing Russia and to form institutional mechanisms for their solution.
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On the ability of regions to adapt to various external shocks
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In order for Russia to successfully respond to current challenges and to prepare for new challenges, it is important to analyze the contribution of regions to solving these tasks. The basis for assessing the sustainability of the Russian regions' economies can be their reaction to the shocks they have already experienced. The article examines economic development of the regions in the context of the 2009 crisis caused by the Great Recession and the 2020 crisis associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The choice of these very different crises was determined by the aim of the study, which is to find out how universal the ability of regions to adapt to various external shocks is. The sustainability of a region is assessed by comparing its development indicators and data on the economy as a whole. The comparison is based on the dynamics of gross product and changes in innovation activity over periods that overlap the years of business downturn. Groups of regions with different levels of stability are identified and several characteristics of these groups are given. In contrast to the point of view available in the literature, it is shown that a very successful overcoming of one crisis by a region often cannot be repeated in a crisis of another origin. We identify a group of regions, which we can characterize as possessing a relatively universal dynamic stability in the sense of gross regional product growth. As for innovation sustainability, only some of the regions were able to maintain it in different types of crises. In general, for the period from 2008 to 2021, no connection was found between the growth of gross regional product and the regions' innovative activity estimated by the increase in the volume of innovative goods, works, and services.
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On the axiomatic interpretation of the economic factors’ impact on economic growth
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The article draws attention to the role of non-economic factors in the development of new models of economic growth. It indicates key axiomatic statements defining the basis for interaction of social science with the society and state. The study considers the results of twenty year reforms in Russia and their impact on the formation of public consciousness. It analyzes the role of the government and problems of social policy at the present stage of the Russian society development.
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On the compliance of a modern scientific journal with international quality standards
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The article considers the issue concerning the degree of compliance of a modern scientific publication with international quality standards using the example of the scientific journal “Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast”. The authors have introduced the concept “international quality standard of a scientific journal”, and have given its definition. They have analysed the journal’s issues for 2013, revealed the degree of its compliance with international quality standards, and identified certain goals and objectives for the “development” of the journal in 2014.
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The transformation of export activity, which is a “pillar” of the Russian economy and some of its regions, taking place amid geopolitical instability, determines the importance of assessing the consequences of this process for employment, as well as searching for the most promising types of economic activity that could become locomotives of development in the new economic conditions. In this regard, the aim of our study is to assess the impact of export activities on the number and professional structure of employment, as well as to identify promising areas for changing the structure of Russian exports. The multi-country input - output tables of the international database “The World Input - Output Database” served as the basis for modeling; the information base also included data from Rosstat and the Federal Customs Service. The study is of particular relevance, since the most technologically developed territories and industries facing the risks of deterioration of the investment climate and quality of life. Based on an input - output approach, which, along with an assessment of the economic effect on employment from export activities, constitutes the novelty of the study, we identify promising industries for job creation in the context of professions; we also highlight industries with a high multiplier of production costs as promising areas of development. It is noted that the export of minerals, in comparison with other types of activities, has less impact on employment. We point out the branches of the Russian economy, the output of which brings a greater economic effect in comparison with export activities. It is concluded that increasing exports of products from these economic sectors, combined with the development of new types of production within the country, will significantly enhance the impact of export activities on the number of employees and on the professional structure of employment. The results can be useful to a wide range of researchers in the field of economics of industries and territories, as well as to federal and regional authorities in the development and revision of various strategic and sectoral documents.
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On the issue of economic cost of disability
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The goal of our paper is to determine the extent of economic damage caused by the extent and rate of disability in Russia. The study is based on the analysis of the works of domestic and foreign authors, official documents of international organizations, and state statistics data. We propose a conceptual scheme revealing the system links between disabled population and other socio-economic problems. We prove that one of the crucial factors in reducing economic losses from disability is appropriate social policy that would stimulate the implementation of labor potential of disabled people. We give recommendations concerning the choice of priority indicators to be used in the implementation of programs to promote employment of disabled people and their professional rehabilitation. We consider the consequences of disability associated with declining public health and the economic losses it causes. We divide economic losses into two groups: the first one includes the expenditures on social support that is provided to the disabled and their families, the second one includes the expenditures associated with unemployment of the disabled...
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On the issue of formation of development institutions in the region
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The article analyzes the region’s socio-economic position and identifies the problems hampering its development in the post-crisis period. It reveals the essence and regional experience of formation of development institutions as a tool for economic growth. The efficiency of the development institution is shown and key factors of its formation are identified in the case of the Kaluga Oblast.
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On the issue of poverty in Russia: facts, paradoxes, specifics, and alleviation prospects
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The relevance of the research topic is determined by the need to reduce poverty in Russia to improve the quality of human capital in order to ensure long-term and sustainable growth of its economy. The paradox of the current welfare system in the country has been established: a significant excess of the real poverty rate compared to its maximum permissible value against the background of high indicators of total national wealth and economic potential of the country. The aim of the study is to theoretically substantiate the failure of Russia’s transition in 2021 to a new methodology for determining the national poverty line; to statistically test the hypothesis of high regional income inequality as one of the main features of Russian poverty, limiting the possible rates of economic growth; to formulate the minimum necessary tools of state policy to promote poverty reduction in the country. The research methodology is based on the system approach; on the application of methods of correlation, regression, cluster analysis of data (including the method of k-means and hierarchical clustering), methods of classification, comparison, contrast and time series analysis. The models were identified by means of analysis of variance, testing of statistical hypotheses about the reliability of models and the significance of their parameters, coefficient of determination. In the context of the concepts of “social state” and “sustainable development” the inappropriateness of Russia’s rejection of the normative approach to the definition of the national poverty line in favor of only a relative approach (44.2% of Me) was substantiated. Regression dependencies between the poverty rate and per capita GRP (taking into account its structural components) were constructed for Russia’s constituent entities; four clusters were formed on the basis of such dependencies, within which direct and inverse relationships of different strength between the poverty rate and structural components of per capita GRP were identified. The minimum necessary toolkit of state policy to promote poverty reduction in Russia, taking into account the existing capabilities of its economy, was formed.
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On the issue of socio-economic modernization of Russian regions
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According to the author, if modernization is carried out without a thorough consideration of the country's social and territorial peculiarities, it can lead to the uneven distribution of “modernization” effects resulting in even greater imbalances of territorial development as compared to already existing ones. Long-term strategies and development plans, aimed at the socio-economic system modernization, should be based on the available potential of the regions. The notion of “socio-economic potential of modernization” is introduced, which includes not only a set of resources, but also qualitative characteristics of the regional systems. Socio-economic modernization is a set of interrelated directions, including the industrial policy activities, development of scientific-technical and innovation potential, improvement of social infrastructure, etc.
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On the issue of “new” poverty in Russia in 2000-2023
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The research topic is relevant because the phenomenon of “new” poverty has been recognized as Russia’s deep and lingering problem of the 21st century, which is accompanied by underutilization of accumulated human capital and an increased risk of a decline in the economic value of education, which hinders progressive and sustainable economic growth. The aim of the work is to concretize key qualitative features of “new” poverty and substantiate the reproduction of this phenomenon in Russia in 2000- 2023, which is driven by rent-oriented behavior of the state and extreme socio-economic inequality. The methodology of the study is based on a systems approach, analysis using linear and separation methods in relation to identification, and analysis of causes, concomitant factors and consequences; we also use hierarchical classification of variables for clustering Russia’s constituent entities taking into account the spread of the phenomenon of absolute monetary poverty. We identify a fundamental condition, main causes determined by extreme socio-economic inequality, and their accompanying factors, which together explain the reproduction of “new” poverty in Russia as a major problem requiring solution at the political level. W consider key qualitative signs of “new” poverty in Russia, revealing its nature in the conditions of rent-oriented behavior of the state. They include social exclusion from the use of resources, various benefits and privileges; coverage of employees with secondary and higher professional education working in different economic sectors, downward professional and qualification mobility; expansion of the “shadow economy of survival”, etc. We conduct the clustering of Russia’s constituent entities, taking into account the spread of absolute monetary poverty in 2023. We propose some basic and fundamental measures aimed at overcoming poverty (taking into account its “new” quality) and raising Russians’ incomes.
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