Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1587
Power and society: search for the ways of formation of mutual trust
Статья научная
The article considers the issues associated with the low level of political trust in modern Russia and its consequences for the political regime; it also considers the sources of political trust and the ways of its formation. The article summarizes the most important theoretical and practical aspects using the works of researchers specializing in this field and fundamental texts on the subject. The author emphasizes the special responsibility of the government for the building of mutual trust in politics. He offers some ways to build political trust, focused on public awareness, education, and involvement of society in joint activities.
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Precarious employment in the Vologda oblast: current state and trends
Статья научная
The paper is devoted to the study of the phenomenon of precarious employment in Russian regions. Today, the socio-economic sciences lack a single concept of precarious employment applicable to Russian conditions. Despite the considerable amount of scientific and practical works of domestic and foreign authors on the issue of precarious employment, the criteria of its statistical evaluation as applied to Russian conditions have not been determined. At the same time, the development of precarious employment threatens the country's socio-economic welfare, because it creates the risk of unwanted effects such as poor employment, hidden and open unemployment, lower labor productivity, degradation of human capital, etc. The paper provides a brief review of research on the problem stated, and defines precarious employment. The author makes an attempt to determine and substantiate the list of indicators available in official statistics for assessing precarious employment in the region...
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Статья научная
The article considers the issue concerning the transformation of political discontent to protest behaviour, which is insufficiently examined in the domestic scientific literature; the processes and factors facilitating this process are analyzed. The authors apply the empirical data of the monitoring of the public opinion of the Vologda Oblast residents, conducted by the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences. A new integrated model of protest is presented.
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Статья научная
The article deals with the use of econometric macromodels for solving applied problems to substantiate economic policy. The questions of the applicability of econometric methods for modeling economic processes are considered. The requirements for the key qualities of complex macroeconomic models are being formed. Emphasis is placed on the fact that it is econometric modeling based on large amounts of data that contributes to a deep analysis of the causal relationships existing in the economy. As an illustration, we use the description of the quarterly macroeconomic model QUMMIR, which has been used for a decade and a half at the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences for medium-term forecasting. It is shown that in conditions of increasing economic uncertainty, the importance of analyzing scenarios of socio-economic development and substantiating economic policy measures aimed at tapping the internal potential of economic development increases. We argue that the use of advanced predictive and analytical tools can significantly improve the quality of forecast estimates and the validity of decisions made on their basis. The structure of the model is described in detail with an emphasis on budget and financial blocks. The final part of the article provides an example of using a quarterly macroeconomic model to analyze decisions in the field of fiscal and monetary policy. Calculations demonstrate a positive impact on the dynamics of GDP on the part of budget system expenditures in the absence of a significant effect on the growth of inflation. In terms of monetary policy, calculations demonstrate its relative neutrality in relation to economic dynamics, as well as the exhaustion of the positive impact on the economy in the current conditions due to the weakening of the ruble exchange rate.
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Статья научная
The successful experience of France in implementing the concept of “growth poles” byF. Perroux led to the widespread usage of polarized development ideas in the elaboration of spatial strategies. The Russian Far East (FE) has accumulated considerable, and rather contradictory, experience of creating local growth points. The purpose of the study is to analyze the Far East’s experience of forming local zones with preferential economic regimes, to identify problems of its implementation, and to assess the impact of special local zones’ regimes on the economy of the macro-region. The analysis of the performance of local zones’ functioning was based on the assessment of the degree of achieving targets for creating local “growth points”. The assessment of the impact of local zones on the economy of FE was based on a comparative analysis of enterprises’ demographics, changes in the revenue structure of consolidated budgets of Far Eastern regions, and the quality of regional finances for 2013-2019. The implementation of these approaches showed that the business climate of Far Eastern local zones has a positive nature for its residents, but it has not yet been established; in the absence of a clear position of the state concerning the formation of propulsive industries in most local areas, anchor projects do not have a propulsive nature, and a significant number of small and medium enterprises is loosely connected with enterprises-leaders of zones. Orientation of specialization of Far Eastern local zones toward domestic demand and import substitution, which is objectively formed within the sanctions war, can slow down its export specialization; preferential climate of local zones has no obvious positive impact on the business climate of Far Eastern entities of the Federation, and the growing number of residents with preferential business conditions in local zones dissonant with demographics of FE enterprises. There is a deterioration of the quality of regional finances and the decrease of the taxable mass of profits. It implies the reduction of the number of profitable enterprises in FE as the result of the economic situation deterioration and the introduction of a preferential tax regime in region’s local areas.
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Prerequisites for global geopolitical inversion
Статья научная
The article considers a possibility of change of the current global world economic leader - the United States. The author introduces the concept “geopolitical inversion”, which means the change of the global economic center. The article describes a common globalizing trend in the formation of the world centers of capital, provides quantitative characteristics of this process - the indices of territorial and demographic dominance. The article uses the example of the UK and the USA to show five steps in geopolitical inversion and give their chronology. The author makes some suggestions concerning a new global leader that could succeed the USA.
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Preserving children's health: search for the ways of solving relevant issues
Статья научная
Changed social reality, caused by the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), made attention to population’s health, its risks, and defining factors relevant. Nowadays, an individual’s personal responsibility for own health and coherence of various social institutions’ activities in the formation of children’s health are of particular importance. The article is devoted to an analysis of children’s health and search for the ways of its improvement. The authors explore the issues of availability and quality of medical services, safeguard of children’s health and discuss the barriers to inter-institutional cooperation in this field, as well as ways of overcoming them. To achieve these objectives, we used quantitative and qualitative sociological methods: a sociological survey of families with children aged 3-17 years, monitoring observation of cohorts of families with children, focus group studies of parents of children aged 3-17 years, an expert survey of specialists of the regional health system and members of government authorities. The authors reveal several issues: decline of children’s health potential in growing; insufficient awareness of parents about the state, forms, and methods of preserving and strengthening children’s health, discrepancy between parents’ ideas about their own competence in this matter with reality; lack of narrow-profile specialists in children’s medical institutions; absence of medical workers among full-time staff of educational organizations; queues and complexity of making appointments with specialists; low availability of free and high cost of paid medical services; insufficient information interaction between medical, educational organizations and parents in the prevention of diseases; lack of parents’ knowledge of full information about objectives of professional examinations and insufficient awareness of the importance of further actions to restore and strengthen health of children. Based on the analysis, we stated the areas of solving these problems. They may include the development and implementation of specific management tools to preserve children’s health potential.
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President Vladimir Putin's third four-year term: contradictory outcomes - an expected result
Ред. заметка
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Pressing issues of disability employment
Статья научная
Disability employment is a major tool for creating inclusive society. In Russia, the main obstacles to employment of the disabled are imperfect statutory measures aimed at improving competitiveness of this population group in the labor market; low prestige of jobs for people with disabilities; the employers' unwillingness to hire disabled people. The purpose of this study is to determine the barriers disabled people face on the labor market and to justify the expedience of investing public funds in activities aimed at promoting disabled employment. Works of Russian and foreign authors, national statistics, results of sociological surveys of the population and people with disabilities conducted on the territory of the Vologda Oblast in 2013-2015 represent the information base of the study. The article reviews the impact of employment quotas for the disabled; in particular, it has been established that the number of the employed under such quotas during the period from 2008 to 2014 has declined...
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Principles and practice of operation of foreign technology transfer centers
Статья научная
The article provides a classification of intermediary organizations market innovation (technology transfer centers, business innovation centers, development agencies, etc.) on the following criteria: the founder, the organizational-legal form, market focus, the method of funding, the main directions of activities, staff, the results. The features of the system transfer technologies in the USA, Germany, Japan, Australia, China, South Africa, etc. Conducted during the study analysis showed that to date there is no universal model for the functioning of technology transfer centers. However, the experience of most foreign countries is evidence of the need for major components of infrastructure for technology transfer: the legal framework governing the activities of technology transfer, financial support from both the state and the private sector, skilled and qualified personnel. Initial data for the performance served as a special methodical and reference literature of domestic and foreign authors.
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Статья научная
In Russia, the development of strategic socio-economic development programs is regulated by Federal Law 172-FZ of June 28, 2014, according to which long-term development ideas should be displayed on the schemes of territorial development. The main problem in the development of territorial planning schemes concerns the accuracy of forecasting the number of population living in municipal entities in relation to the time horizon determined by strategic plans. Practical application of the correlation between the population and the number of jobs created or saved can translate the amount of financial resources provided for the implementation of long-term development programs into quantitative indicators necessary to calculate the number and capacity of social and transport infrastructure facilities. The goal of our research is to prove the existence of statistical dependence of the number of population on the number of jobs in the regional and municipal economy. To achieve the goal we determined the statistical correlation between the population of Russia's regions and the number of jobs in the economy (employed population)...
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Статья научная
The article deals with the issues concerning Russia’s fuel and energy complex. It specifies the conceptual principles of the programme approach to the management of its development. The authors propose a list of activities on the sustainable development of small oil business in the framework of strategic programming. A conceptual model of an economic mechanism of strategic management of small oil business in Russia is presented in the article.
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Статья научная
One of the priority areas in the development of municipal formations in the context of the new reform of local self-government in Russia is the transformation of the system of local self-government, including further consolidation of territorial systems at the municipal level. These issues are to a certain extent reflected in scientific studies and in the research on agglomeration processes as well. At the same time, in the methodological aspect, insufficient attention is paid to the transformation of municipal governance. We believe it is necessary to focus not only on general patterns, but also on the specifics of development of municipal formations located around a large city; these provisions have determined the relevance of the work. The purpose of our study is to develop a methodological approach to substantiating priorities and tools for the transformation of municipal governance in the context of the new reform of local self-government. To this end, we use methods such as analysis and synthesis, structural, functional, monographic, statistical methods, review of municipal practices, etc. Scientific novelty of the research lies in the development of a methodological approach to substantiating priorities and tools for the transformation of municipal governance in the context of the new reform of local self-government. We show that transformation methods such as unification of rural settlements and transition to a single-level system of organization of local self-government, transfer of powers from the level of rural settlement to the level of municipal district, development of inter-municipal cooperation provide positive socio-economic effects for municipal formations. The findings of our work can be replicated and used in the practice of managing the development of municipal formations in Russia; they can also serve as a basis for further research on this topic concerning the improvement of the management system at the local level.
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Priorities of budget financing of cities and regions of the Russian North
Статья научная
The paper analyzes the phenomenon of the flypaper effect - non-identical growth of inter-budget transfer and equivalent growth of private income for budget expenditures - in the relations between the budgets of the Northern entities of Russia and their local budgets for 2013-2016. We conduct comparative assessment of the budget response to changes in parameters of the private sector on the one hand; on the other hand, in parameters of relations with the budget of another level. The relevance of the proposed study of inter-budget relations lies in determining the effects of inter-budget redistribution and optimal expenditures at different levels of the budget system in the current system of distribution of expenditure obligations. The purpose of the present research is to reveal the consequences of allocation of non-target transfers from budgets of the entities in the Russian North from the point of view of fiscal incentives formed in the process of inter-budget relations and the models of behavior of local budgets created by these incentives...
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Private public partnership in education: a model of human capital management
Статья научная
The article considers the issues of human capital use management as one of the most important fictitious assets which provides economic transition to the innovative way of development. The model of cooperation between regional authorities, business and higher educational establishments on the basis of private public partnership is proposed in the article. The implementation of the model will make it possible to provide prospective needs of innovative economy in highly skilled personnel in advance.
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Статья научная
This article is based on the large-scale survey “the problem of drug addiction among the youth in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania of the RF North Caucasian Federal District”. In April-May North Ossetian Center of Social Research of the Institute of Socio-Political Research RAS together with North Ossetian State University after K.L. Khetagurov conducted a monitoring aimed at evaluating the drug abuse situation in the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania and identifying the causes of drug abuse among young citizens of the republic. It studied the system of beliefs, habits and aspirations of young people. The research focused on the sociological assessment of the drug abuse situation in the Republic of North Ossetia and it was based on the study of systems of beliefs, habits and preferences of the residents, as well as on the identification of the reasons for the spread of drug addiction among the population. The achievement of this goal required solution of the following tasks: • to evaluate beliefs, value systems, life plans, the state of health of the North Ossetia-Alania citizens,learn their opinion on the possibility of rational leisure time and recreation by means of monitoring;• to assess bad habits of the republic citizens, estimate the society's relation to the problems of drug addiction and drug addicts, analyze the reasons for the emergence and existence of this phenomenon in the society; • to evaluate effectiveness of the measures to combat drug addiction; • to identify reasons for drug addiction, most frequently used types of drugs, the cost of a single dose, a market place and consumers' access to drugs; • to assess practical activities aimed at improving the drug abuse situation in the republic...
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Problem of forming expert groups in regions with different levels of socio-cultural development
Статья научная
The relevance of studying the role of expert group formation in the preparation and implementation of national projects is due to the fact that their realization depends not only on the work of the links of the power and management vertical, but on the ability to attract target groups of specialists interested in a common cause. In practice, the authorities attract an inner circle of known people for this role for specific tasks. As a result, there is a problem of adequate selection of experts in decision-making groups. The purpose of the research is to experimentally identify the nature of real expert group formation, used in regional decision-making, and potential (latent) group formation as a resource of population’s social activity. The scientific novelty of the research is related to the attempt to identify expert structures that allow qualitatively realizing national projects and programs for public administration reform in the regions. The basis for experts’ involvement is their membership in various socio-professional groups, and the establishment of evaluation positions in relation to the activities of regulatory and administrative authorities. The authors use an online survey of qualified specialists in four pilot regions of the Russian Federation with different levels of socio-cultural modernization. To analyze these data, we use the correlation analysis and construct contingency tables.
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Статья научная
Appealing to the problem of distance learning at schools is caused by the urgent transfer of the educational process to a digital format against the background of the pandemic announced in March 2020 due to the spread of a new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in the world. Almost all national education systems in developed countries have been converted to online format. Despite the available experience and a certain readiness of the educational sphere to use distance learning, such a comprehensive mass transition to the “remote mode” could not but cause a number of problems both for the teaching corps and for students and their parents. The purpose of the research is to analyze the first results of distance learning at school in conditions of self-isolation due to the need to contain the spread of coronavirus infection in the country. Information base of the research are online surveys of teachers of the Vologda Oblast and school students' parents of the Republic of Bashkortostan, conducted in April-May 2020 by the Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Bashkir Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The problems of distance learning are identified in a number of aspects: technical (lack of necessary equipment in households, quality of the Internet, reliability of educational platforms), organizational (lack of a unified methodology for online learning; increased workload for teachers; difficulties in conducting some creative and laboratory classes) and socio-cultural (reduced educational motivation of school children; high risks of children's health deterioration). The novelty of the research lies in a comprehensive assessment of the situation related to the processes of remote learning of a mass social group of schoolchildren in the context of a pandemic by two key actors of the education system - the teaching corps and parents, as well as in identifying the problems caused by the emergency transition to online learning. The practical significance of the study is in the formation of a knowledge base and grounds for making balanced and adequate management decisions both in the event of such emergency situations, and in the course of further implementation of the national development goals of the Russian Federation until 2030: digital transformation, achieving “digital maturity” of key sectors of the economy and social sphere, including education.
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Problems and prospects of personnel support of the Moscow healthcare system
Статья научная
The article is devoted to the study of the problem of personnel support in the capital's healthcare. Its research is connected, on the one hand, with the analysis of statistical data on the medical personnel staff in organizations, which allows building (on the basis of theoretical model) the prognosis of availability/ absence of staff (according to different indicators). On the other hand, it is connected with the analysis of motivational factors affecting entrance into the profession, long successful professional career, processes of “burnout” and retirement from the profession. In the article, we present the results of the scientific project, conducted in 2019, on studying problems of the quality of the staff in the Moscow's system of healthcare within the implementation of the current capital standard of providing medical assistance. The usage of statistical, mathematical, and sociological research methods allowed us to identify not only the characteristic features of the available labor resources, but also the prospects of personnel support of Moscow healthcare institutions. The forecast for the development of the personnel potential of Moscow's medical organizations is based on statistical data for the last 5 years (2014-2018). The prospects of changing of the age and gender structure of employees (doctors and nursing staff), the number of doctors of the most popular specialties in the capital are shown. On the basis of sociological surveys, we reveal the level of satisfaction of medical employees (depending on working experience) with working conditions (salaries in hospitals and clinics and its correspondence with the work performed). We also define main types of doctors and nursing staff's workload, which act as motivational factors affecting the quality of medical assistance. On the basis of expert opinions, we show material and non-material factors that determine the increase of the personnel potential of the Moscow's healthcare system.
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