Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1801
Methodology for defining pivotal settlements in the Russian Arctic
Статья научная
Settlement in new regions of the Russian North, available for new economic exploitation, started at the beginning of the 20th century: the exploration of mineral deposits, its mining and shipment into southern regions commenced at the same time. Experience of building cities as trade and industrial centers, marine ports, and military settlements, which was acquired in the 18th-19th centuries, was insufficient. It was necessary to define forms of settlement, quantitative parameters of emerging communities, and convenience of the latter. Discussions and knowledge acquisition resulted in a consent to build permanently populated large cities. It was suggested to build basic cities in the North and pivotal cities, which would have infrastructural functions, in nearby areas. Quantitative guidelines on population numbers for each type of settlement were proposed: pivotal cities - 300 thousand residents, basic cities - 80-150 thousand people, industrial cities - 15-30 thousand inhabitants, watch and expeditionary villages- 3-5 thousand people. After making the Arctic Zone in the Russian North the independent management unit consisting of nine pivotal areas, it became necessary to justify settlement framework, which would meet new requirements. Thus, the purpose of this article is to develop the methodology of calculating the Index of Pivotal Settlement which would allow us to classify an urban settlement as a multifunctional pivotal settlement, a pivotal settlement, a potential pivotal settlement, and as a settlement which does not meet criteria of a pivotal one. The creation of this index is based on three methodological principles: complexity, consistency, and account of agglomeration effect. The calculation of the index of the Arctic pivotal settlements is carried out due to the concept of demographic gravitation. Acquired results would allow each Arctic pivotal area to determine pivotal settlements, and the centers of surrounding areas development.
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Статья научная
Modern methodological approaches and techniques for studying agglomeration effects are aimed at determining and evaluating the spatial potentials of development and interaction of territories of various hierarchical levels. But the possibilities of modern software that allows detecting intraagglomeration spatial reserves - spatial potentials - on cartographic models are not taken into account. The work uses spatial-functional and synergetic (agglomeration) approaches, as well as potential method, statistical method and cartographic modeling. We reveal the theoretical basis for the formation of spatial potentials in the intra-agglomeration environment and propose a methodological approach to their determination based on agglomeration effects of demographic, settlement and economic structures of the Saint Petersburg agglomeration. According to the calculations obtained, we design cartographic models that correspond to the structures under consideration and reflect spatial potentials of agglomeration effects, which are represented by groups of five clusters. The levels of clusters of spatial potentials and their configurations are obtained with the help of the neural network software “Surfer Golden Software”. We find that groups of clusters within the demographic and settlement potentials structure - gravitational, high-potential, medium-potential and low-potential - have smaller territorial impact areas in contrast to similar groups of clusters of economic structure. At the same time, a very low-potential cluster of demographic and settlement structure significantly exceeds the area of the similar cluster of economic structure and spreads beyond the cities located in the eastern and southeastern parts of the Saint Petersburg agglomeration periphery. The areas for future research are related to the development of new methodological approaches and techniques aimed at searching for and modeling agglomeration effects and their spatial potentials in the functional structures of individual cities, urban agglomerations or regions (investment, innovation, environmental, transport, service, cultural and other structures). Another promising area consists in determining spatial potentials based on the agglomeration effects of individual large enterprises with the help of quantitative indicators reflecting their performance effectiveness; this direction is difficult to implement due to the lack of open statistical data.
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Статья научная
The methodology of estimating the milk production technologies efficiency during the summer period is described in the article. Three types of cow housing: stall and pasturable, camping and pasturable, stall and outdoor were analyzed and the results are produced here. It is proved, that for the farms of all types and sizes the camping and pasturable cow housing leads to the lowest values of reduced expenditures and milk cost price during the summer period. These performance indicators can be obtained only if the intensive technologies of milk production are used during the summer period, i.e. the combined green forage chain with the rotational rationed system of livestock grazing and two-shift work scheme.
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Methods for analyzing economic and social development of smart cities
Статья научная
The purpose of the study is to develop a typology of methods for analyzing economic and social development of smart cities. Having reviewed the works indexed in the global database Web of Science Core Collection we selected one and a half hundred articles on economic problems of smart cities development published in 2015-2021 and available in the public domain. We identify various methods for analyzing economic and social development of smart cities, differentiate them using the method of describing the objects under consideration (static and dynamic) and the method of model description (tables, diagrams, matrices, graphs). Static methods include methods for assessing ecosystem characteristics, input-output analysis, development diagrams, data ecosystems coordination analysis, assessment of the ecosystem for elderly residents. Dynamic methods include the Value Creation - Value Capturing matrices, stimulating management elements, “digital ecosystems - entrepreneurial ecosystems”, graphs showing the life cycle of the smart city ecosystem, evolution of civil ecosystems, stage-by-stage digital transformation, dynamic opportunities for innovation and the quadruple helix. We show the applicability of methods for analyzing the development of smart cities for various territories. We present our own results of assessment of the development of smart cities in Moscow, Yekaterinburg, Oslo, Singapore based on the 7I-model (infrastructure, institutions, intranet, integration, interfaces, innovations, implementation). Theoretical significance of the results obtained consists in the development of a theory of ecosystem analysis related to assessing the formation of smart cities; practical significance of the results lies in the development of applied tools for strategic planning in the field of smart city project development.
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Статья научная
The priority of the government policy in the current economic and social situation is to maintain constant innovation development in all social spheres; therefore, the formation of middle class as the guarantee of social stability appears to be particularly relevant due to certain characteristic features of middle class representatives. These features include responsibility, high social activity and consciousness. Therefore, research into the size and structure of middle class is one of the main goals of modern sociology. The article analyses the middle class in the region on the basis of sociological surveys conducted in2008-2013 in the Vologda Oblast and in the Northwestern Federal District. The authors present approaches to studying and assessing the middle class, and make an attempt to determine its size. The article proposes an internal structure of the middle class in the region and draws a portrait of a typical representative of this category. The authors have found out that social mobility of the middle class in the region is low due to a number of socio-economic factors; this fact hampers the growth of the middle class up to the quantity determined in the Strategy for Socio-Economic Development of the Vologda Oblast for the Period up to 2020.
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Migration attitudes of the students enrolled in arctic-focused higher education programs
Статья научная
The article presents the findings of a sociological survey conducted in the regions that are partially or completely included in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation (hereinafter - the Russian Arctic). The goal of our research is to study migration attitudes of students and determine the factors affecting the readiness of future skilled personnel to leave the territory of the Russian Arctic. The survey was conducted among students enrolled in Arctic-focused higher education programs and trained for the needs of the economy and social sphere of the polar regions of Russia in the cities of Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Krasnoyarsk and Yakutsk. The study pays considerable attention to information-related and educational factors associated with the subject matter of the Arctic (“Arctic-focused” education; assessment of the extent of Arctic-related specifics of educational programs; awareness of specifics of formation of the Russian Arctic, and others). According to the results of the survey, migration attitudes of students are identified as quite strong...
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Статья научная
The planet watches a new planning phase of migration flows. In the era of economic globalization, restructuring of labor markets, social, cultural, political and economic transformations, the decision to migrate is linked to reasons such as the existence of pull factors in the destination, of a network linking origin and destination that minimize the constraints and dangers of the journey and, of course, economic aspects represented by the ability to achieve a “better life” with the gains obtained at the destination. It is clear that, although indispensable for the reorganization of the predominant mode of production in our society, the crisis we experience brings great challenges for the global economy. In this chapter, we analyze the importance of the female immigrant entrepreneurship that, faced with an economy that requires movement, could prove an economic and social potential that benefits from occasions and market segments little explored. This is because in the migration process, there may be new contexts for immigrants, which enables the development of its human capital. In other words, the material/intellectual accumulation of these individuals linked to its ability to reinvent themselves end up contributing to new economic arrangements.
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Migration of rural population of the Russian Far East at the beginning of the 21st century
Статья научная
Nearly a quarter of the population of the Far Eastern Federal District, which occupies 40.6% of Russia's area, lives in rural territories. It is obvious that rural population and its migration mobility have territorial differences in such a large region. The purpose of the study is to conduct a spatial and temporal analysis of dynamics and factors of migration processes in rural areas of the Far Eastern Federal District of the Russian Federation. The work is based on the analysis of official statistical data. Since structural characteristics of migration flows are likely to change because of using a new methodology for accounting internal migration since 2011, we consider the period from January 2012 to January 2020. The authors show that migration is crucial for the formation of rural population. At the beginning of 2020, there was an increase in the intensity of migration processes in the district's rural areas, but the population's migration decline remains. Most migrants from rural areas settle in the Far Eastern Federal District - often, in towns. The flow of migrants from the town to the village retains statistical significance but does not correspond to the territorial structure of the migration outflow of rural residents. Based on the ratio of migration and natural population decline (growth), the authors developed a classification of rural areas in the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District for 2011 and 2019. We analyze the reasons for the arrival and departure of rural population. Most migrants arrive after a temporary absence and leave for personal and family reasons. The authors show the influence of the dynamics of migration processes on the development of rural areas and agriculture in the context of a shortage of labor resources and restrictions on international movements of labor immigrants using a case study of the border region.
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Migratory processes as mirrored by the transformations: border regions in Russia
Статья научная
The article deals with the migration processes which took place in Russia in the post-Soviet transitional period. The migration processes became particularly intense in the border regions thanks to the active policy of the authorities to establish transboundarycooperationwith the foreign countries. The transformational processes in the economic, political and social spheres of Russian society influenced directly over the dynamics of the migration processes.In addition to a detailed analysis of the theoretical foundations of migration researches the authors use the statistical materials, which indicate the dynamics of the migration processes between Russia and the near and far abroad countries.
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Mikhail Fedorovich Sychev celebrates his 80th birthday
Другой
October 23, 2015, Mikhail Fedorovich Syche v, Ph.D. in Economics, Leading Research Associate at the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of RAScelebrated his 80th birthday.
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Статья научная
The paper studies the relationship between the minimum wage and the subsistence level in the Russian economy. In particular, we analyze the degree of elaboration of the issue and reveal its aspects that are studied most extensively, less extensively and those aspects that remain debatable. We use a methodology of normative-positive analysis and reveal a causal relationship, according to which the subsistence level should determine the consumer basket and the minimum wage, respectively. However, as we note in our paper, in the current economic practice the specified relationship has the opposite direction as well. We consider the main trends in the change of the subsistence level, the consumption basket and the minimum wage at the level of the Russian economy and conclude that their nominal and legally established equality does not promote real simple reproduction of labor force in certain regions. Moreover, the data obtained in the course of empirical analysis show that there is a differentiation in the level of wages between the regions of one type of activity. Scientific novelty of our study consists in the fact that it considers the complete cycle of circulation of the commodity form of the simple labor force, including the receipt of the advanced minimum wage, the minimum disposable income, and the subsistence level. The data on Russia obtained during the analysis show that the minimum wage remains behind the real subsistence level; such a situation impedes the creation of conditions for the simple reproduction of labor force. The results we have obtained can be used to develop regulations at the federal and regional levels, to develop target programs to support rural areas and to study the correlation between the subsistence level and the minimum wage differentiated by sector, region and level of professional training of employees.
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Статья научная
The paper explores the development of bank lending to individuals in relation to Russian people's incomes. Using the data of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Federal State Statistics Service, and with the help of EXCEL software, we carry out statistical analysis of the indicators characterizing people's satisfied demand for bank loans and compare them with the indicators of per capita income in 2010-2017, in the context of the federal districts of the Russian Federation, the city of Moscow, the Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol (after 2014): we consider the volume of loans issued by banks during the year per inhabitant of the relevant territory, we calculate the correlation indicators of average per capita cash incomes and loans issued by banks per capita taking into account the purpose of lending; we estimate the distribution of the volume of loans issued per capita depending on the average per capita income. We find that the increase in per capita income is not accompanied by a proportional increase in bank loans per capita...
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Статья научная
The availability of qualified IT specialists is an important factor that contributes to the development of the digital economy. The need for personnel training for the IT industry is stated in the national project “Digital economy of the Russian Federation until 2024”. Educational organizations are an important source that supplies IT specialists for the economy. However, today there is an acute problem of inconsistency between the educational system and the labor market. The aim of the study is to identify problems of non-compliance of the level of IT personnel training with the requirements of employers, and to determine ways to address these problems (on the example of the Vologda Oblast). Using the data from the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation, we analyze the number of graduates in information technology-related fields in the Vologda Oblast. We also review educational programs at universities of the region and reveal problems in the formation of professional competencies in students. Based on the results of a survey conducted in 2020 by VolRC RAS, we have obtained information on the compliance of the level of competencies in graduates of IT specialties with the requirements of employers in the IT industry. In the final part of the article we highlight problems related to personnel training for the IT industry of the region and outline main ways to address them. Scientific novelty of our work consists in the application of a system-wide approach that help us study the viewpoints widespread in the education system and among employers, in order to identify problems related to the training of in-demand personnel for the IT industry. The materials of our study can be used by researchers, postgraduates and students who deal with the issues of digital economy development and those related to the staffing of this industry. Practical significance of our work lies in the fact that our proposals for solving the problems under consideration can be used by federal and regional authorities and management bodies, when it would be necessary to adjust plans for the implementation of national projects “Digital economy” and “Education”; our proposals should also be the basis for goal-setting and reflected in the tasks of other regulatory documents in the field of education at the federal and regional levels.
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Model of strategic managing the competitiveness of the integrated company
Статья научная
The author's interpretation of strategic managing the competitiveness of the mining company is offered, the theory-methodological bases of the model are developed, and application of the resource theory of strategic management, value-based management, and also the theory of real options are proved. The model of strategic evaluating and managing the competitiveness should be based on interest multiplicity of stakeholders which are carriers of financial, intellectual, social and natural capital.
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Modeling and forecasting public debt in South Africa
Статья научная
The principal interest of any developing country like South Africa is to preserve sustainable public debt. Recently, for developing economies there has been a growing concern regarding the importance of debt in setting the path for development and growth. The objective of this paper is to model and forecast total public debt in South Africa. Public debt in South Africa has grown substantially since the financial crisis in 2008 until now and it has not recovered. Debt is a crucial instrument for the small to medium economy such as South Africa and a vital source of fiscal policy. The study applied the ARIMA model to select the appropriate model to estimate and forecast public debt. As it is conventional for any time series modelling to assess the order of integration of the series used. The study employed the ADF unit root test to determine the order of integration and the results show that public debt variable is integrated of order one. The second step was to identify the best model to forecast public debt. In all the competing models the study identified that ARIMA13,1,1 was selected according to the coefficient significance and Akaike information criteria. The forecast shows that, there is an expected reduction in the stock of public debt in the future. It is therefore recommended by this study that fiscal policy makers should adopt a strong fiscal reform to keep the public debt to a minimum.
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Modeling complex financial sustainability of a corporation in the age of global economic crises
Статья научная
Currently, the socio-economic content of the concept of sustainable development in relation to enterprises and corporations is actually replaced by a system of managing financial risks of investment, the effect of which aims to prevent a financial crisis. Major financial strategies ceased to be functional; they acquired a role comparable to the corporate economic strategy, and began to control the establishment of criteria of risks and the feasibility of enterprise’s existence. The goal of the present research is to provide methodological support to the process of returning the priority of the financial concept of sustainable development from the sphere of financial growth (permanent capital growth) to the sphere of financial and economic development, by offering a new analytical tool of strategic level that does not contradict the interests of large businesses in its application. Taking into account the great contribution of transnational corporations to the initiation of global crises implemented with the help of stock market tools, the version of the financial-analytical method (visual modeling), which we present in the paper, reduces the dependence of corporate governance on the financial market assessment and directs risk management process in the field of real capital management of associations of enterprises...
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Modeling economic security risks for Russian regions in the context of sanctions pressure
Статья научная
The article investigates the problem of ensuring Russia's economic security in the conditions of increasing sanctions pressure. In order to assess and analyze emerging risks, we propose a multifactorial model that considers the economic security of Russian regions as a complex multidimensional system influenced by various interrelated risk factors. We use a list of indicators for monitoring and assessing Russia's economic security, approved by Presidential Decree 208, dated May 13, 2017. For the purpose of risk modeling, we establish two-level threshold values (“soft” and “hard”) of indicators based on expert assessment. The information base of the study includes data of the Federal State Statistics Service for Russia, as well as data in the context of constituent entities of the Ural Federal District by month for the period from January 2016 to March 2023. According to the calculation results, the aggravation of sanctions imposed by unfriendly countries has negatively affected the economic security of Russia as a whole and that of constituent entities of the Ural Federal District. Within the analyzed period, the risks created are significantly lower in comparison with the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, and they tend to decrease. Regional analysis shows that the most significant risk factor is the condition of agriculture, which has been significantly affected by the quarantine and sanctions restrictions imposed. Modeling economic security risks for Russian regions on the basis of the proposed approach in dynamics will help to promptly assess the current situation and put forward management recommendations in a timely manner, when economic security is compromised.
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Modeling of diversification of market as a basis for sustainable economic growth
Статья научная
The article considers the issue of dependence of key macroeconomic indicators on the energy supply price dynamics, especially oil price, relevant to the modern Russian economy. In order to overcome the negative trends related to oil price dynamics, the authors propose to consider the measures on the gradual diversification of the Russian economy as an effective tool of state regulation. To test the hypothesis that diversification contributes to the increase in sustainability of the national economic system, the authors review the simultaneous equations model, the endogenous variables of which include structural values which reflect the structure of national production system. The share of gross value added (hereinafter, GVA) generated in the i-th sector in the total GVA and the base GVA index generated in the i-th sector similar to the industry output index sequentially serve as endogenous variables in this study. The test of the hypothesis was carried out in two stages: at the first stage, according to the results of econometric modeling, the indicator of the real effective ruble exchange rate to foreign currencies was chosen as the main exogenous variable; at the second stage, the basic system of equations was evaluated...
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Modeling of equilibrium operation of economy in the north-west federal district
Статья научная
The article presents the results of economic equilibrium evaluating in the regions of North-west federal district from 2000 to 2008 made on the basis of the simple mathematical models reflecting the dynamics of consumers’ demand, labour supply and usage of the labour potential in the market operation of the regional economy.
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