Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
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On the compliance of a modern scientific journal with international quality standards
Статья научная
The article considers the issue concerning the degree of compliance of a modern scientific publication with international quality standards using the example of the scientific journal “Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast”. The authors have introduced the concept “international quality standard of a scientific journal”, and have given its definition. They have analysed the journal’s issues for 2013, revealed the degree of its compliance with international quality standards, and identified certain goals and objectives for the “development” of the journal in 2014.
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Статья научная
The transformation of export activity, which is a “pillar” of the Russian economy and some of its regions, taking place amid geopolitical instability, determines the importance of assessing the consequences of this process for employment, as well as searching for the most promising types of economic activity that could become locomotives of development in the new economic conditions. In this regard, the aim of our study is to assess the impact of export activities on the number and professional structure of employment, as well as to identify promising areas for changing the structure of Russian exports. The multi-country input - output tables of the international database “The World Input - Output Database” served as the basis for modeling; the information base also included data from Rosstat and the Federal Customs Service. The study is of particular relevance, since the most technologically developed territories and industries facing the risks of deterioration of the investment climate and quality of life. Based on an input - output approach, which, along with an assessment of the economic effect on employment from export activities, constitutes the novelty of the study, we identify promising industries for job creation in the context of professions; we also highlight industries with a high multiplier of production costs as promising areas of development. It is noted that the export of minerals, in comparison with other types of activities, has less impact on employment. We point out the branches of the Russian economy, the output of which brings a greater economic effect in comparison with export activities. It is concluded that increasing exports of products from these economic sectors, combined with the development of new types of production within the country, will significantly enhance the impact of export activities on the number of employees and on the professional structure of employment. The results can be useful to a wide range of researchers in the field of economics of industries and territories, as well as to federal and regional authorities in the development and revision of various strategic and sectoral documents.
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On the issue of economic cost of disability
Статья научная
The goal of our paper is to determine the extent of economic damage caused by the extent and rate of disability in Russia. The study is based on the analysis of the works of domestic and foreign authors, official documents of international organizations, and state statistics data. We propose a conceptual scheme revealing the system links between disabled population and other socio-economic problems. We prove that one of the crucial factors in reducing economic losses from disability is appropriate social policy that would stimulate the implementation of labor potential of disabled people. We give recommendations concerning the choice of priority indicators to be used in the implementation of programs to promote employment of disabled people and their professional rehabilitation. We consider the consequences of disability associated with declining public health and the economic losses it causes. We divide economic losses into two groups: the first one includes the expenditures on social support that is provided to the disabled and their families, the second one includes the expenditures associated with unemployment of the disabled...
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On the issue of formation of development institutions in the region
Статья научная
The article analyzes the region’s socio-economic position and identifies the problems hampering its development in the post-crisis period. It reveals the essence and regional experience of formation of development institutions as a tool for economic growth. The efficiency of the development institution is shown and key factors of its formation are identified in the case of the Kaluga Oblast.
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On the issue of poverty in Russia: facts, paradoxes, specifics, and alleviation prospects
Статья научная
The relevance of the research topic is determined by the need to reduce poverty in Russia to improve the quality of human capital in order to ensure long-term and sustainable growth of its economy. The paradox of the current welfare system in the country has been established: a significant excess of the real poverty rate compared to its maximum permissible value against the background of high indicators of total national wealth and economic potential of the country. The aim of the study is to theoretically substantiate the failure of Russia’s transition in 2021 to a new methodology for determining the national poverty line; to statistically test the hypothesis of high regional income inequality as one of the main features of Russian poverty, limiting the possible rates of economic growth; to formulate the minimum necessary tools of state policy to promote poverty reduction in the country. The research methodology is based on the system approach; on the application of methods of correlation, regression, cluster analysis of data (including the method of k-means and hierarchical clustering), methods of classification, comparison, contrast and time series analysis. The models were identified by means of analysis of variance, testing of statistical hypotheses about the reliability of models and the significance of their parameters, coefficient of determination. In the context of the concepts of “social state” and “sustainable development” the inappropriateness of Russia’s rejection of the normative approach to the definition of the national poverty line in favor of only a relative approach (44.2% of Me) was substantiated. Regression dependencies between the poverty rate and per capita GRP (taking into account its structural components) were constructed for Russia’s constituent entities; four clusters were formed on the basis of such dependencies, within which direct and inverse relationships of different strength between the poverty rate and structural components of per capita GRP were identified. The minimum necessary toolkit of state policy to promote poverty reduction in Russia, taking into account the existing capabilities of its economy, was formed.
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On the issue of socio-economic modernization of Russian regions
Статья научная
According to the author, if modernization is carried out without a thorough consideration of the country's social and territorial peculiarities, it can lead to the uneven distribution of “modernization” effects resulting in even greater imbalances of territorial development as compared to already existing ones. Long-term strategies and development plans, aimed at the socio-economic system modernization, should be based on the available potential of the regions. The notion of “socio-economic potential of modernization” is introduced, which includes not only a set of resources, but also qualitative characteristics of the regional systems. Socio-economic modernization is a set of interrelated directions, including the industrial policy activities, development of scientific-technical and innovation potential, improvement of social infrastructure, etc.
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On the issue of “new” poverty in Russia in 2000-2023
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The research topic is relevant because the phenomenon of “new” poverty has been recognized as Russia’s deep and lingering problem of the 21st century, which is accompanied by underutilization of accumulated human capital and an increased risk of a decline in the economic value of education, which hinders progressive and sustainable economic growth. The aim of the work is to concretize key qualitative features of “new” poverty and substantiate the reproduction of this phenomenon in Russia in 2000- 2023, which is driven by rent-oriented behavior of the state and extreme socio-economic inequality. The methodology of the study is based on a systems approach, analysis using linear and separation methods in relation to identification, and analysis of causes, concomitant factors and consequences; we also use hierarchical classification of variables for clustering Russia’s constituent entities taking into account the spread of the phenomenon of absolute monetary poverty. We identify a fundamental condition, main causes determined by extreme socio-economic inequality, and their accompanying factors, which together explain the reproduction of “new” poverty in Russia as a major problem requiring solution at the political level. W consider key qualitative signs of “new” poverty in Russia, revealing its nature in the conditions of rent-oriented behavior of the state. They include social exclusion from the use of resources, various benefits and privileges; coverage of employees with secondary and higher professional education working in different economic sectors, downward professional and qualification mobility; expansion of the “shadow economy of survival”, etc. We conduct the clustering of Russia’s constituent entities, taking into account the spread of absolute monetary poverty in 2023. We propose some basic and fundamental measures aimed at overcoming poverty (taking into account its “new” quality) and raising Russians’ incomes.
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On the methodological approaches to the study of saving behavior of the population
Статья научная
The task to ensure effective functioning of all systems in the society and sustainable economic growth requires significant amounts of investment resources, which include savings of the population. This involves identification of the amount of funds accumulated by the population and studies of the characteristics of its saving behavior. The article reveals advantages and disadvantages of the main methodological approaches to the research in saving behavior and gives a comparative analysis of methods on the basis of official statistical information. As for Russia income is a key factor in saving behavior, the article also addresses the problem of assessing the degree of income differentiation of saving behavior. For this purpose we have used a method of household budgets sample surveys on the basis of which we have calculated and analyzed key performance indicators of savings behavior of households, including in the context of groups with different income levels. Unlike previous works on the topic, our study uses available resources (not money income) as a basis for the calculation of saving behavior indicators, as they more fully characterize funds of low-income households, which are mostly represented in the budget surveys sample...
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On the methodology of checking integral estimates of socio-economic objects
Статья научная
A reliable and high-quality assessment of scientific, technological, and innovative development of territories helps to define socio-economic conditions and forecast economic growth dynamics of a given subject. The usage of integral indicators is among the most popular approaches toward assessing science, innovative activity, and other socio-economic objects. However, since a collective synthetic category is estimated, accuracy of this metric’s characterization of an intangible subject is uncertain. In this regard, issues related to the development of methodology for checking aforementioned provisions are relevant. The purpose of the study is to define the reliability of artificially derived integral complex estimates that in turn describe various socio-economic processes and phenomena. Scientific novelty of the research is to develop an approach to determining the reliability of integral metrics based on mathematical statistical tools. We attempted to determine the quality of artificially derived integrated estimates that, according to their creators, characterize various manifestations of science, innovation, and technology. We applied corresponding methods (variance, correlation, and regression analysis) using the Innovation Development Index of RF constituent entities and assessment of territories’ scientific and technological potential. The results obtained are of practical importance in relation to the evaluation practices of the scientific and innovative sphere carried out in the Russian economy. The theoretical significance of the study is characterized by the development of an approach that can be applied to other socio-economic objects. We conclude that integral assessments become an extremely subjective tool when applied to humanitarian areas. They can be used correctly if there is a confirmed connection with the indicators: integral assessments should influence them or have a strong response from them.
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Статья научная
The article represents the conceptual foundations of a unique interregional study on the population’s demographic behavior based on a sociological monitoring “Demographic well-being in Russia”, the key points of its methodology are described here, and a range of possibilities for analyzing sociological data is shown as well. The purpose of this paper is to define a comprehensive methodology that not only allows identifying individual practices of the population’s demographic behavior and the information field of its formation but also makes it possible to develop a model of optimal conditions for the formation and implementation of demographic attitudes. The relevance of this work is caused by the necessity to timely receive complete, scientifically justified data on the state and determinants of demographic development of Russian regions and the efficiency of demographic policy; in particular, while implementing the national project “Demography”. The theoretical foundations of the presented research take into account the institutional and evolutionary concepts of demography, sociology, economics, and philosophy in relation to its object - the population’s demographic behavior - implemented in a sociodemographic approach that defines the demographic behavior of the population as a set of demographic attitudes (ideas) and actions that result in the acquisition of demographic status relative to childhood, marital status, health status, and territory of residence. The uniqueness of the monitoring is an opportunity to assess demographic behavior in the cohesion of its types (reproductive, matrimonial, self-preservatory, migration), as well as the efficiency of the demographic policy. The authors describe options of analyzing demographic behavior, such as cross-analysis of components and determinants of the demographic behavior, search for territorial features of socio-demographic processes and its regulation, and determination of the characteristics of the population’s socio-demographic groups. The results of the first wave of this monitoring allow getting a detailed picture of a current demographic situation, provide ample opportunities for obtaining and analyzing information, and it will become a foundation for determining directions of an in-depth research and a search for ways and mechanisms to adjust Russia’s socio-demographic policy. All-Russian nature of the study contributes to a balanced approach to an analysis and adjustment of the situation in the regions, which is extremely important because it will make it possible to take into account regional specifics and identify successful practices. As the result, a model of conditions may be created. In it, demographic attitudes and real behavior patterns, which lead to the results determined by the country’s demographic policy, are formed.
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On the normative model of a healthy lifestyle
Статья научная
The formation of a healthy lifestyle among the educational process subjects is one of the main functions of health-saving educational space. This function can be implemented effectively only if the executive bodies in the sphere of education, other agencies, the public and the subjects of the educational process take active part in this process. Such cooperation requires a common understanding in the issues to promote health of all pedagogical process participants, but to date the concept “healthy lifestyle” has not been clearly defined and the effective and optimized pedagogical models for its formation, according to the cross-cutting principle, have not been elaborated. The article analyzes different points of view on this issue. A healthy lifestyle is considered as a complex pedagogical technology to create health culture. Taking into account the scholars' attitudes to the concept “healthy lifestyle” the author identifies three main components of a healthy lifestyle: health culture, health-saving activity and conditions that ensure a healthy lifestyle...
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The article investigates possible ways to increase labor productivity at large industrial enterprises with the help of organizational factors. Factors that reduce productivity include inefficient use of working time, excess of engineering and management staff, inefficient design and technological solutions, procedural violations, accidents and related manufacturing defects. These phenomena are due to unco- ordinated work of factory management services, distorting internal factory reporting and losing the ability to adequately analyze the technological and economic situation at the place of production. This problem arose in Soviet times when factory services became functionally subordinate to various government departments that did not ensure consistency of the policy documents they issued. Today, this problem has disappeared, but the working methods of factory services have not changed. The country has no management schools capable of organizing the work of factory services properly. Foreign experience of effective management is inadequate to the situation prevailing in Russian industrial production. Uncoordinated work of factory services forces the leadership of enterprises to manage production in a manual mode. Thus, production is going on, but it becomes fraught with chronic disorganization, which reduces efficiency and productivity. These phenomena, despite their widespread occurrence, are given very little attention in the Russian scientific literature, since there are not enough primary descriptions of situations that arise directly in the workshops. Due to the ineffectiveness of other research methods, this work uses participant observation technique, when the observer is a direct participant in the production process in question. An auxiliary shop is a short-range observation area, and the main metalworking shops represent a remote observation area. In the auxiliary shop, labor standards significantly exceed the actual labor intensity. This creates a specific moral atmosphere. The number of standard hours for a specific order is determined by administrative bargaining between management levels. In the main shops, standards are technologically determined, so workers do not have reserves for labor intensification. The increase in standards leads to an extension of the working week by almost half against the one provided for by the Labor Code, which in the future may create social tension. The article describes an attempt to create an independent trade union. The administration was able to block this attempt, but the possibility of forming a trade union remains. In conclusion we point out that the enterprise, which is the object of observation, has significant reserves for increasing labor productivity, but at the same time there is social tension that can lead to acute social conflicts. Improving the quality of management, including load balancing, can make significant contribution to resolving these issues.
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On the practice of strategic approach to administration in the municipalities of the Russian North
Статья научная
The article presents the results of the analysis of institutional prerequisites for and the practice of strategic planning and management in the municipalities of the Russian North. Implementation of a strategic approach in management is particularly important in the Northern municipalities, as it is an important means of tackling such negative trends, as depopulation, migration outflow of population and other socio-economic problems. The article defines the main factors promoting or hampering the application of strategic management technologies in Northern cities, towns and municipal districts.
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On the problems of Russia's way out of the economic crisis
Статья научная
In the previous issue of our journal there was published an article by Jacques Sapir, the director of the Center of economic development models research of the School for Advanced Studies in the Social Sciences (Paris, France), with which he spoke at the permanent Russian-French Seminar on Monetary and Financial Problems of the Russian economy, held in Vologda in April 2010. The next meeting of the seminar held in June 2010 in Paris. The French part of the seminar participants, as before, was led by Jacques Sapir. The Russian team members worked under the guidance of Academician V.V. Ivanter, the Director of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of RAS. The abridged transcript of V.V. Ivanter’s speech at the opening and closing sessions of the seminar is published below. Are more low published, with V.V. Ivanters consent, with small reductions of the shorthand report of its performances at opening of a seminar and at final session.
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Статья научная
The research topic we have chosen is relevant due to the following factors: a key role of Russian small and medium-sized enterprises in national economic development in a difficult geopolitical situation, specifics of enterprises in this segment, as well as the duality of scientific views on the expediency of strategic planning for this type of business. The aim of the work is to clarify the importance, features of construction and application, as well as the expediency of strategies that are effective tools for the development of the sector in question. Scientific novelty of the research lies in considering strategic planning issues of small and medium-sized enterprises through the prism of how strategies in these companies are designed and applied. We look into theoretical foundations of the influence of strategic planning and strategies on the following aspects of the work of small and medium-sized enterprises: competitiveness, assessment of business achievements, financial performance, productivity, viability, etc.; we review domestic and foreign scientists’ ideas on this issue. Taking into account the fact that the functioning of small and medium-sized enterprises has its own specifics, we identify certain features inherent in small and medium-sized business strategies, namely: integrated approach, multitasking, adaptability, interactivity, inclusivity. We put forward a comparative classification of fundamental features of small (and medium-sized) and large companies’ strategies. Based on the specific analysis of Russian and foreign literature carried out within the framework of the work, we identify reasons impeding the implementation of strategies in small and medium-sized businesses, and estimate the expediency of using strategies in such enterprises. We formulate conclusions about the current state and sentiment in the business environment, drawing upon the results of a survey of representatives of the sector under consideration. In the course of the work we use general scientific methods; the results of theoretical and empirical analysis are interpreted with the help of general logic methods, formalization, abstraction. Methodologically, the study is based on a systems approach and classical and modern theories of strategic planning
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Статья научная
The concept of social capital has gained considerable popularity in the social sciences, as well as in practical politics on a national and international scale. Its heuristic potential is confirmed by numerous studies demonstrating the positive impact of the level and types of social capital on a wide range of economic, social and political phenomena, and especially the use of the concept of social capital to study economic growth and development issues. However, there is no universally accepted definition of social capital, and there is no unanimous opinion concerning the ways of measuring it. The paper contains a review of the current status of the theoretical field of the concept; it shows that researchers from different countries are interested in the impact of social capital on economic growth and development at the regional level. Specific comparative studies in different countries and regions strongly support the presence of a correlation that proves social capital is one of the powerful driving forces of development...
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