Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1817
On ideologies and their bearers: revisiting the issue
Статья научная
With the advent of the era of information and knowledge, ideologies are becoming increasingly important in the life of societies and determine their history. The role of ideologies has especially increased during the period of aggravation of the civilizational confrontation between the Collective West and those non-Western countries that are friendly toward Russia and China. The article defines the concept of ideology and provides a brief description of modern ideologies of the West and Russia. We prove that even a scientifically developed theory is very limited in its ability to identify the main patterns of societal development (due to the incomparable complexity of the knowable and the knower), and even more so to purposefully influence this development. There is a well-known Leninist formula: “An idea becomes a power when it takes hold of the masses”. But it is the elite, the ruling stratum, that develops an ideology, protects it from hostile influences, and communicates it to society. Based on the works of Russian and Western historians and sociologists, the paper describes the development of ideas about the ruling stratum, the elite as the bearer of ideologies and the dangers associated with its split. In Western countries, the function of selecting personnel for the elite is largely performed by the market mechanism of capital accumulation. In Russia and China, in the “ruling stratum - government” tier, the leading role is more often played by the government, which largely forms both the ideology and the ruling stratum. In modern Russia, one of the crucial tasks is to create mechanisms for the selection of personnel and creation of privileged conditions for the ruling stratum in a situation of existing unjustified socio-economic inequality. The article discusses methods for practical solution of this problem. The presented material can be used to determine the priority of the tasks facing Russia and to form institutional mechanisms for their solution.
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On psychological factors in historical processes
Статья научная
One of the key driving forces behind history and the development of its subjects – peoples, social strata, and individual actors – is the functioning and evolution of their individual and collective mental systems. Psychological factors exert a profound influence on economic processes (whether the prevailing orientation is toward increasing or reducing consumption or armaments, the willingness to take risks, etc.), on the structuring of society, and so forth. Yet in historical research, and especially in Russian historical scholarship, this factor is generally given insufficient attention. The reason lies in the underdeveloped state of many problems in social psychology, as well as the limited familiarity of the academic community with this field. For several decades now, a scholarly direction known as psychohistory has been developing in Western countries, dedicated to studying the interplay between historical processes and the development of the individual and collective psyche. The article demonstrates the role of such factors as psychological attitudes and types, in particular the types of passionaries, innovators, and conservatives. It examines the capacity to concentrate and subordinate most of the states and functions of the psyche to a single center, a higher meaning-bearing principle, a dominant attitude – a capacity that lies at the foundation of religions and other ideological movements. The article explores the mutual influence of psychological attitudes and “general historical” systems (productive-technological, socio-economic, institutional, and moral) across the eras of Christianity, modernity, and the present day. The differences between Western and Russian civilizations are examined on the basis of the distinctive features of their respective psychological systems. Psychohistorical research has significance that goes beyond theory alone. It can and must become an important tool in the elaboration of strategic plans and forecasts in such areas as the socio-economic sphere, education, defense, and geopolitics.
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On the ability of regions to adapt to various external shocks
Статья научная
In order for Russia to successfully respond to current challenges and to prepare for new challenges, it is important to analyze the contribution of regions to solving these tasks. The basis for assessing the sustainability of the Russian regions' economies can be their reaction to the shocks they have already experienced. The article examines economic development of the regions in the context of the 2009 crisis caused by the Great Recession and the 2020 crisis associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The choice of these very different crises was determined by the aim of the study, which is to find out how universal the ability of regions to adapt to various external shocks is. The sustainability of a region is assessed by comparing its development indicators and data on the economy as a whole. The comparison is based on the dynamics of gross product and changes in innovation activity over periods that overlap the years of business downturn. Groups of regions with different levels of stability are identified and several characteristics of these groups are given. In contrast to the point of view available in the literature, it is shown that a very successful overcoming of one crisis by a region often cannot be repeated in a crisis of another origin. We identify a group of regions, which we can characterize as possessing a relatively universal dynamic stability in the sense of gross regional product growth. As for innovation sustainability, only some of the regions were able to maintain it in different types of crises. In general, for the period from 2008 to 2021, no connection was found between the growth of gross regional product and the regions' innovative activity estimated by the increase in the volume of innovative goods, works, and services.
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On the axiomatic interpretation of the economic factors’ impact on economic growth
Статья научная
The article draws attention to the role of non-economic factors in the development of new models of economic growth. It indicates key axiomatic statements defining the basis for interaction of social science with the society and state. The study considers the results of twenty year reforms in Russia and their impact on the formation of public consciousness. It analyzes the role of the government and problems of social policy at the present stage of the Russian society development.
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On the compliance of a modern scientific journal with international quality standards
Статья научная
The article considers the issue concerning the degree of compliance of a modern scientific publication with international quality standards using the example of the scientific journal “Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast”. The authors have introduced the concept “international quality standard of a scientific journal”, and have given its definition. They have analysed the journal’s issues for 2013, revealed the degree of its compliance with international quality standards, and identified certain goals and objectives for the “development” of the journal in 2014.
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Статья научная
The transformation of export activity, which is a “pillar” of the Russian economy and some of its regions, taking place amid geopolitical instability, determines the importance of assessing the consequences of this process for employment, as well as searching for the most promising types of economic activity that could become locomotives of development in the new economic conditions. In this regard, the aim of our study is to assess the impact of export activities on the number and professional structure of employment, as well as to identify promising areas for changing the structure of Russian exports. The multi-country input - output tables of the international database “The World Input - Output Database” served as the basis for modeling; the information base also included data from Rosstat and the Federal Customs Service. The study is of particular relevance, since the most technologically developed territories and industries facing the risks of deterioration of the investment climate and quality of life. Based on an input - output approach, which, along with an assessment of the economic effect on employment from export activities, constitutes the novelty of the study, we identify promising industries for job creation in the context of professions; we also highlight industries with a high multiplier of production costs as promising areas of development. It is noted that the export of minerals, in comparison with other types of activities, has less impact on employment. We point out the branches of the Russian economy, the output of which brings a greater economic effect in comparison with export activities. It is concluded that increasing exports of products from these economic sectors, combined with the development of new types of production within the country, will significantly enhance the impact of export activities on the number of employees and on the professional structure of employment. The results can be useful to a wide range of researchers in the field of economics of industries and territories, as well as to federal and regional authorities in the development and revision of various strategic and sectoral documents.
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On the impact of personal income tax on labor migration
Статья научная
The article proposes an original methodological approach to assessing the impact that changes in individual elements of the personal income tax have on migration flows. The subject of the study is personal income taxation instruments (PIT rates, tax residency criteria, the list of taxable incomes), as well as migration flows. The aim of the work is to substantiate directions for improving personal income taxation instruments in ways that give the Russian Federation a competitive edge in the competition for labor resources. The research methods employed include interval grouping, analytical grouping, cluster analysis (hierarchical and k‑means), the cartographic method, and theoretical methods of juxtaposition and comparison. The resulting clusters made it possible to identify a relationship between migration processes and the competitiveness of individual income taxation, while a cross‑country comparative analysis (covering data from 38 OECD countries) has substantiated the high competitiveness of Russia’s PIT. As a result, the study finds that the changes introduced in personal income taxation (the adoption of a progressive scale, the change in the approach to taxing residents and non‑residents) are unlikely to trigger negative consequences in the form of an outflow of labor resources abroad, yet at the same time they do not contribute to attracting the most valuable human capital. Recommendations are put forward for improving the taxation of highly qualified specialists. The methodological approach developed makes it possible to assess the potential migration‑related consequences of changes to income taxes in countries around the world. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the original two‑stage methodology for analyzing the influence of PIT elements on migration flows, as well as in formulating proposals for improving personal income taxation – specifically, adapting the tax scale and the approaches to applying tax deductions for highly skilled professionals to the demands of technological development. This would help attract the most valuable labor resources while also upholding the principles of tax equality.
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On the issue of economic cost of disability
Статья научная
The goal of our paper is to determine the extent of economic damage caused by the extent and rate of disability in Russia. The study is based on the analysis of the works of domestic and foreign authors, official documents of international organizations, and state statistics data. We propose a conceptual scheme revealing the system links between disabled population and other socio-economic problems. We prove that one of the crucial factors in reducing economic losses from disability is appropriate social policy that would stimulate the implementation of labor potential of disabled people. We give recommendations concerning the choice of priority indicators to be used in the implementation of programs to promote employment of disabled people and their professional rehabilitation. We consider the consequences of disability associated with declining public health and the economic losses it causes. We divide economic losses into two groups: the first one includes the expenditures on social support that is provided to the disabled and their families, the second one includes the expenditures associated with unemployment of the disabled...
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On the issue of formation of development institutions in the region
Статья научная
The article analyzes the region’s socio-economic position and identifies the problems hampering its development in the post-crisis period. It reveals the essence and regional experience of formation of development institutions as a tool for economic growth. The efficiency of the development institution is shown and key factors of its formation are identified in the case of the Kaluga Oblast.
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On the issue of poverty in Russia: facts, paradoxes, specifics, and alleviation prospects
Статья научная
The relevance of the research topic is determined by the need to reduce poverty in Russia to improve the quality of human capital in order to ensure long-term and sustainable growth of its economy. The paradox of the current welfare system in the country has been established: a significant excess of the real poverty rate compared to its maximum permissible value against the background of high indicators of total national wealth and economic potential of the country. The aim of the study is to theoretically substantiate the failure of Russia’s transition in 2021 to a new methodology for determining the national poverty line; to statistically test the hypothesis of high regional income inequality as one of the main features of Russian poverty, limiting the possible rates of economic growth; to formulate the minimum necessary tools of state policy to promote poverty reduction in the country. The research methodology is based on the system approach; on the application of methods of correlation, regression, cluster analysis of data (including the method of k-means and hierarchical clustering), methods of classification, comparison, contrast and time series analysis. The models were identified by means of analysis of variance, testing of statistical hypotheses about the reliability of models and the significance of their parameters, coefficient of determination. In the context of the concepts of “social state” and “sustainable development” the inappropriateness of Russia’s rejection of the normative approach to the definition of the national poverty line in favor of only a relative approach (44.2% of Me) was substantiated. Regression dependencies between the poverty rate and per capita GRP (taking into account its structural components) were constructed for Russia’s constituent entities; four clusters were formed on the basis of such dependencies, within which direct and inverse relationships of different strength between the poverty rate and structural components of per capita GRP were identified. The minimum necessary toolkit of state policy to promote poverty reduction in Russia, taking into account the existing capabilities of its economy, was formed.
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On the issue of socio-economic modernization of Russian regions
Статья научная
According to the author, if modernization is carried out without a thorough consideration of the country's social and territorial peculiarities, it can lead to the uneven distribution of “modernization” effects resulting in even greater imbalances of territorial development as compared to already existing ones. Long-term strategies and development plans, aimed at the socio-economic system modernization, should be based on the available potential of the regions. The notion of “socio-economic potential of modernization” is introduced, which includes not only a set of resources, but also qualitative characteristics of the regional systems. Socio-economic modernization is a set of interrelated directions, including the industrial policy activities, development of scientific-technical and innovation potential, improvement of social infrastructure, etc.
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On the issue of “new” poverty in Russia in 2000-2023
Статья научная
The research topic is relevant because the phenomenon of “new” poverty has been recognized as Russia’s deep and lingering problem of the 21st century, which is accompanied by underutilization of accumulated human capital and an increased risk of a decline in the economic value of education, which hinders progressive and sustainable economic growth. The aim of the work is to concretize key qualitative features of “new” poverty and substantiate the reproduction of this phenomenon in Russia in 2000- 2023, which is driven by rent-oriented behavior of the state and extreme socio-economic inequality. The methodology of the study is based on a systems approach, analysis using linear and separation methods in relation to identification, and analysis of causes, concomitant factors and consequences; we also use hierarchical classification of variables for clustering Russia’s constituent entities taking into account the spread of the phenomenon of absolute monetary poverty. We identify a fundamental condition, main causes determined by extreme socio-economic inequality, and their accompanying factors, which together explain the reproduction of “new” poverty in Russia as a major problem requiring solution at the political level. W consider key qualitative signs of “new” poverty in Russia, revealing its nature in the conditions of rent-oriented behavior of the state. They include social exclusion from the use of resources, various benefits and privileges; coverage of employees with secondary and higher professional education working in different economic sectors, downward professional and qualification mobility; expansion of the “shadow economy of survival”, etc. We conduct the clustering of Russia’s constituent entities, taking into account the spread of absolute monetary poverty in 2023. We propose some basic and fundamental measures aimed at overcoming poverty (taking into account its “new” quality) and raising Russians’ incomes.
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On the methodological approaches to the study of saving behavior of the population
Статья научная
The task to ensure effective functioning of all systems in the society and sustainable economic growth requires significant amounts of investment resources, which include savings of the population. This involves identification of the amount of funds accumulated by the population and studies of the characteristics of its saving behavior. The article reveals advantages and disadvantages of the main methodological approaches to the research in saving behavior and gives a comparative analysis of methods on the basis of official statistical information. As for Russia income is a key factor in saving behavior, the article also addresses the problem of assessing the degree of income differentiation of saving behavior. For this purpose we have used a method of household budgets sample surveys on the basis of which we have calculated and analyzed key performance indicators of savings behavior of households, including in the context of groups with different income levels. Unlike previous works on the topic, our study uses available resources (not money income) as a basis for the calculation of saving behavior indicators, as they more fully characterize funds of low-income households, which are mostly represented in the budget surveys sample...
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On the methodology of checking integral estimates of socio-economic objects
Статья научная
A reliable and high-quality assessment of scientific, technological, and innovative development of territories helps to define socio-economic conditions and forecast economic growth dynamics of a given subject. The usage of integral indicators is among the most popular approaches toward assessing science, innovative activity, and other socio-economic objects. However, since a collective synthetic category is estimated, accuracy of this metric’s characterization of an intangible subject is uncertain. In this regard, issues related to the development of methodology for checking aforementioned provisions are relevant. The purpose of the study is to define the reliability of artificially derived integral complex estimates that in turn describe various socio-economic processes and phenomena. Scientific novelty of the research is to develop an approach to determining the reliability of integral metrics based on mathematical statistical tools. We attempted to determine the quality of artificially derived integrated estimates that, according to their creators, characterize various manifestations of science, innovation, and technology. We applied corresponding methods (variance, correlation, and regression analysis) using the Innovation Development Index of RF constituent entities and assessment of territories’ scientific and technological potential. The results obtained are of practical importance in relation to the evaluation practices of the scientific and innovative sphere carried out in the Russian economy. The theoretical significance of the study is characterized by the development of an approach that can be applied to other socio-economic objects. We conclude that integral assessments become an extremely subjective tool when applied to humanitarian areas. They can be used correctly if there is a confirmed connection with the indicators: integral assessments should influence them or have a strong response from them.
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Статья научная
The article represents the conceptual foundations of a unique interregional study on the population’s demographic behavior based on a sociological monitoring “Demographic well-being in Russia”, the key points of its methodology are described here, and a range of possibilities for analyzing sociological data is shown as well. The purpose of this paper is to define a comprehensive methodology that not only allows identifying individual practices of the population’s demographic behavior and the information field of its formation but also makes it possible to develop a model of optimal conditions for the formation and implementation of demographic attitudes. The relevance of this work is caused by the necessity to timely receive complete, scientifically justified data on the state and determinants of demographic development of Russian regions and the efficiency of demographic policy; in particular, while implementing the national project “Demography”. The theoretical foundations of the presented research take into account the institutional and evolutionary concepts of demography, sociology, economics, and philosophy in relation to its object - the population’s demographic behavior - implemented in a sociodemographic approach that defines the demographic behavior of the population as a set of demographic attitudes (ideas) and actions that result in the acquisition of demographic status relative to childhood, marital status, health status, and territory of residence. The uniqueness of the monitoring is an opportunity to assess demographic behavior in the cohesion of its types (reproductive, matrimonial, self-preservatory, migration), as well as the efficiency of the demographic policy. The authors describe options of analyzing demographic behavior, such as cross-analysis of components and determinants of the demographic behavior, search for territorial features of socio-demographic processes and its regulation, and determination of the characteristics of the population’s socio-demographic groups. The results of the first wave of this monitoring allow getting a detailed picture of a current demographic situation, provide ample opportunities for obtaining and analyzing information, and it will become a foundation for determining directions of an in-depth research and a search for ways and mechanisms to adjust Russia’s socio-demographic policy. All-Russian nature of the study contributes to a balanced approach to an analysis and adjustment of the situation in the regions, which is extremely important because it will make it possible to take into account regional specifics and identify successful practices. As the result, a model of conditions may be created. In it, demographic attitudes and real behavior patterns, which lead to the results determined by the country’s demographic policy, are formed.
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