Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1801
New check points of the region's foreign trade
Статья научная
The article considers the problems of the Russian regions’ foreign trade activity, which complicate qualitative transformations in the foreign commerce, are. In many respects these problems are caused by imperfection of the existing mechanism of state regulation. The necessity and the features of the foreign commerce’s regulation in a federative state are shown. The conceptual bases of the mechanism of the foreign commerce regulation at the regional level, which will promote a more full realization of the foreign commerce potential of a territory and transformation of the foreign commerce relations into the effective factor of the regional development, are formulated. The key directions of the foreign commerce policy of a region for the immediate prospects, which realization will allow diversifying export structure and expanding its geography, are proved. The means of regulating influence assisting to the activity’s coordination between the federal and the regional authorities, and to a region’s integration into the world economy’s space are argued. The opportunities of the mentioned means’ use in the Vologda Area are estimated.
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New forms of employment in Russia: From legal uncertainty to systemic regulation
Статья научная
The relevance of the study stems from the rapid proliferation of new forms of employment in the context of economic digitalization, a process that is outpacing the development of adequate institutional frameworks and thereby generating systemic socio-economic risks. The aim of the paper is to conduct a comparative analysis of expert assessments regarding the current level, barriers, and prospects for the institutionalization of new employment forms in Russia, drawing on a regional case study. The scientific novelty lies in the application of a structured research-expert seminar (focus group) methodology to purposefully juxtapose the perspectives of two key stakeholder groups: labor market professionals (n = 23) and young people directly engaged in new forms of employment (n = 25). The main findings confirm a consensus on the relatively low level of institutionalization. The study reveals a fundamental duality in the perception of the phenomenon under analysis: professional experts predominantly view institutionalization as a "project", focusing on macro-level regulation and investment, whereas young people tend to see it as an "outcome", emphasizing practical guarantees, rights protection, and technological infrastructure. Both expert groups identify legal uncertainty and a crisis of trust in the state – an entity simultaneously regarded as the principal agent of change and a source of systemic obstacles – as the key barriers. The groups' recommendations diverge: professionals primarily propose systemic modernization of regulatory and analytical institutions, while young people express a demand for specific digital services and protective tools. A limitation of the study is its regional focus. A promising avenue for future research is the quantitative verification of the identified criteria and hypotheses using broader datasets.
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New technological shape of basic branches of RF industrial regions
Статья научная
The article emphasizes the increasing importance of industry in the economic development of both developing and developed countries. It highlights the decisive role of basic industries of the RF industrial regions in ensuring the level of their socio-economic development. The work substantiates the possibility to develop basic industries of some industrial regions as the ones that are knowledge-intensive, high-tech and can meet the requirements of new industrialization. The authors propose their understanding of new industrialization in terms of inclusive development. The article introduces a term “repositioning of the regional industrial complex” as a gradual process of interdependent technological, economic, social- institutional, environmental and organizational change based on innovation. It proves that this complex should be viewed as a network of competitive and structurally balanced productions, satisfying individualized needs of the high-tech sector in knowledge-intensive goods and services and increased quality needs of traditional industries...
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Non-formal institutional environment of social entrepreneurship
Статья научная
Social entrepreneurship as an alternative way to solve social problems is rapidly becoming popular. The efficiency of this type of activity largely depends on the formal institutions operating in the territory under consideration, as well as on the prevailing values, habits, customs peculiar to social groups which do not live on it and form an informal institutional environment. The purpose of the study is to simulate the impact of informal institutional environment on social entrepreneurship in the global space. The article analyzes the approaches to analysis of informal institutions; it is shown that this problem is raised in works of both foreign and domestic researchers. The Inglehart-Welzel concept of modernization, cultural change and democracy was used in analysis of informal institutional environment. The information framework of the research consists of international reports of the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, the World Values Survey, the World Bank for 2015 in 30 countries...
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Non-state preschool education: current practices of territorial development
Статья научная
The paper is concerned with the problem of preschool education in Russia and the Vologda region. It shows that in the current context of shortage of places in state nurseries it is necessary to develop private care service providers. Day-care is in great demand among parents having children aged 1-3. The article analyses the main characteristics of preschool educational organizations. It shows that in the Vologda Oblast, particularly in Vologda, private demand for preschool education service is unsatisfied to a wide extent. In Vologda more than ten thousand children are on waiting lists for preschool educational organizations. In total, in the Vologda Oblast about 28.9 thousand children are in line for admitting to a kindergarten, 34% of them are registered in Vologda. The paper provides the results of the study into Vologda private nurseries and day-care carried out in May-June 2015 by method of involved observation. It reveals the key factors hampering growth of private nurseries...
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Noospheric economy as a planetary active economic sphere of civilization development
Статья
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Nowcasting migration using statistics of online queries
Статья научная
Due to international migration’s growing importance in modern countries’ lives, there is an increasing need for reliable and relevant forecasts of this process, especially in today’s turbulent world. However, established migration forecasting procedures suffer from a number of limitations, against which innovative approaches based on big data, notably online searches made by potential migrants, offer many advantages. Because of their novelty, such tools have not yet revealed their full explanatory and predictive properties. The work explores the possibility of using these tools to predict the population flows within the post-Soviet space. We hypothesize that there is a statistical relationship between online queries about migration to Russia made by residents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and subsequent human flows from these countries to Russia. The hypothesis was tested using the migration statistics of Rosstat, the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, Google Trends data on search intensity, and Yandex Wordstat service of word matching for validation of search images. As a result of correlation and regression, we found a moderate dependence of the dynamics of human flows on previous queries, which is most evident at a lag of 6-9 months and at zero lag. Obtaining more accurate results in this and similar studies is hindered by the initial limited predictability of migration behavior due to its contextual, sometimes situational and irrational nature, as well as “noisiness” of statistics of queries and often the flows themselves. The search for universal algorithms of determination of relations between queries and migration flows is seen as the main direction of research in this field.
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Objectives and methods of analyzing energy efficiency in the economy
Статья научная
Energy saving and improving energy efficiency of production are among economic development priorities in Russia and its regions. Energy efficiency issues are given a lot of attention in scientific research on the interrelation of economic and power engineering development. In order to select the methodological tools for regional studies, we have reviewed scientific publications that analyze and evaluate energy efficiency in the economy. As a result of the review, we highlight the relevant research objectives: 1) to clarify the trends and factors leading to changes in energy efficiency of the objects under consideration;2) to compare the energy efficiency of similar objects, to determine the causes of differences and possible growth potential; 3) to identify the spatiotemporal properties of energy variables and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth. In accordance with these research objectives we summarize the approaches and methods of statistical analysis, evaluation, and econometric modeling used to address them...
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Статья научная
The main focus of the article is one of the most pressing issues to date: how a public administration system of socioeconomic development of Russian rural territories corresponding to modern realities can be created? The authors have analyzed the main challenges and trends in the transformation of the management object. The first important trend is the formation of an active mobile social group of dachniki (summer residents) breaking the stereotypes about the extinction of the Russian village by their desire to buy real estate in rural areas. And furthermore, they have a request for environmental friendliness and aesthetics of the place of residence. They are joined by enterprising businessmen who are trying to become the leaders of a new resurgent village. However, the unattractiveness of rural areas for business has been revealed due to the lack of access to the main factors of production. All this is happening against the background of outdated rural engineering and social infrastructure, which requires high maintenance costs. However, the world does not stand still and the transition of humanity from an industrial to an information society is characterized by a change in the technological basis, a creative person becomes the main productive force. Today, all spheres of human activity are being digitalized, accessibility borders are being erased, and the time factor is being eliminated. Thus, rural areas should be integrated into these global processes. This, accordingly, requires fundamentally new approaches to the transformation of the subject of management and control actions. The authors propose a new approach for rural areas’ sustainable development through a range of measures: introducing strategic planning and project approach, development of local and territorial public selfgovernment, development of the local mixed economy, cooperation development, introduction of modern technologies, removal of legislative restrictions, introduction of PSEDA (Priority Social and Economic Development Area) mode, effective public administration.
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Статья научная
Nowadays, innovations are regarded as the main factor of economic growth in the region that is recognized by both public authorities and scientific community. In this regard, one of the major scientific challenges is to assess the contribution of an innovation factor to the results of the regional economic development. The researches of this problem presented in the literature are based on the use of production functions apparatus - Cobb - Douglas model, Solow growth model. The author suggests assessing the contribution of an innovation factor to the results of the regional economic development basing on the assessment of various aspects of effective innovation activity - the efficiency of innovation projects, innovation activity of enterprises in the region, management efficiency of innovation processes in the region. Integrated assessment proposes to compare in dynamics the growth of gross regional product and regional innovation cost.
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On assessing the impact of social risks on the life expectancy of economically active population
Статья научная
Intensive transformations of public life generate a wide range of social risks that have a negative impact on the life expectancy of economically active population. In addition to the well-described risks (insurance, environmental, food), an increasing number of new threats are emerging (digitalization, pandemics, geopolitical challenges, etc.); this exacerbates issues related to the ability and possibility to adequately respond to environmental requirements at the individual level, and also determines the need for timely and correct management decisions in this area at the meso and macro levels. All this highlights the need to deepen the scientific understanding of the current structure of social risks and find new approaches to assessing the impact of social risks on the population. Thus, the aim of the study is to identify current social risks and assess their impact on the life expectancy of economically active population in Russian regions. The research data were derived from Rosstat’s statistics on the socio-economic situation of Russia’s regions for 2019-2022. At the stage of exploratory research, in order to clarify the structure and content of social risks, we used factor analysis, which determined the social risks relevant to the economically active population of Russian regions during the period under review; we also put forward their typology in terms of duration of exposure (systems and situational). Using automated regression modeling methods, we determined the importance and significance of the identified risks in each of the years under consideration (2019-2022). Scientific novelty of the study lies in proving that life expectancy of the economically active population of Russian regions is influenced by systems social risks typical for the entire period in question, as well as situational social risks that are short-term and that arise during the crisis. It is proved that the results obtained help to apply a differentiated approach to the implementation of measures to increase life expectancy - through long-term strategic programs to reduce the impact of systems social risks or targeted short-term solutions of a predominantly economic nature to overcome the negative impact of situational social risks, which can contribute to improving the effectiveness of governmental and regional social policy
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On ideologies and their bearers: revisiting the issue
Статья научная
With the advent of the era of information and knowledge, ideologies are becoming increasingly important in the life of societies and determine their history. The role of ideologies has especially increased during the period of aggravation of the civilizational confrontation between the Collective West and those non-Western countries that are friendly toward Russia and China. The article defines the concept of ideology and provides a brief description of modern ideologies of the West and Russia. We prove that even a scientifically developed theory is very limited in its ability to identify the main patterns of societal development (due to the incomparable complexity of the knowable and the knower), and even more so to purposefully influence this development. There is a well-known Leninist formula: “An idea becomes a power when it takes hold of the masses”. But it is the elite, the ruling stratum, that develops an ideology, protects it from hostile influences, and communicates it to society. Based on the works of Russian and Western historians and sociologists, the paper describes the development of ideas about the ruling stratum, the elite as the bearer of ideologies and the dangers associated with its split. In Western countries, the function of selecting personnel for the elite is largely performed by the market mechanism of capital accumulation. In Russia and China, in the “ruling stratum - government” tier, the leading role is more often played by the government, which largely forms both the ideology and the ruling stratum. In modern Russia, one of the crucial tasks is to create mechanisms for the selection of personnel and creation of privileged conditions for the ruling stratum in a situation of existing unjustified socio-economic inequality. The article discusses methods for practical solution of this problem. The presented material can be used to determine the priority of the tasks facing Russia and to form institutional mechanisms for their solution.
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On the ability of regions to adapt to various external shocks
Статья научная
In order for Russia to successfully respond to current challenges and to prepare for new challenges, it is important to analyze the contribution of regions to solving these tasks. The basis for assessing the sustainability of the Russian regions' economies can be their reaction to the shocks they have already experienced. The article examines economic development of the regions in the context of the 2009 crisis caused by the Great Recession and the 2020 crisis associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. The choice of these very different crises was determined by the aim of the study, which is to find out how universal the ability of regions to adapt to various external shocks is. The sustainability of a region is assessed by comparing its development indicators and data on the economy as a whole. The comparison is based on the dynamics of gross product and changes in innovation activity over periods that overlap the years of business downturn. Groups of regions with different levels of stability are identified and several characteristics of these groups are given. In contrast to the point of view available in the literature, it is shown that a very successful overcoming of one crisis by a region often cannot be repeated in a crisis of another origin. We identify a group of regions, which we can characterize as possessing a relatively universal dynamic stability in the sense of gross regional product growth. As for innovation sustainability, only some of the regions were able to maintain it in different types of crises. In general, for the period from 2008 to 2021, no connection was found between the growth of gross regional product and the regions' innovative activity estimated by the increase in the volume of innovative goods, works, and services.
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On the axiomatic interpretation of the economic factors’ impact on economic growth
Статья научная
The article draws attention to the role of non-economic factors in the development of new models of economic growth. It indicates key axiomatic statements defining the basis for interaction of social science with the society and state. The study considers the results of twenty year reforms in Russia and their impact on the formation of public consciousness. It analyzes the role of the government and problems of social policy at the present stage of the Russian society development.
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On the compliance of a modern scientific journal with international quality standards
Статья научная
The article considers the issue concerning the degree of compliance of a modern scientific publication with international quality standards using the example of the scientific journal “Economic and social changes: facts, trends, forecast”. The authors have introduced the concept “international quality standard of a scientific journal”, and have given its definition. They have analysed the journal’s issues for 2013, revealed the degree of its compliance with international quality standards, and identified certain goals and objectives for the “development” of the journal in 2014.
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Статья научная
The transformation of export activity, which is a “pillar” of the Russian economy and some of its regions, taking place amid geopolitical instability, determines the importance of assessing the consequences of this process for employment, as well as searching for the most promising types of economic activity that could become locomotives of development in the new economic conditions. In this regard, the aim of our study is to assess the impact of export activities on the number and professional structure of employment, as well as to identify promising areas for changing the structure of Russian exports. The multi-country input - output tables of the international database “The World Input - Output Database” served as the basis for modeling; the information base also included data from Rosstat and the Federal Customs Service. The study is of particular relevance, since the most technologically developed territories and industries facing the risks of deterioration of the investment climate and quality of life. Based on an input - output approach, which, along with an assessment of the economic effect on employment from export activities, constitutes the novelty of the study, we identify promising industries for job creation in the context of professions; we also highlight industries with a high multiplier of production costs as promising areas of development. It is noted that the export of minerals, in comparison with other types of activities, has less impact on employment. We point out the branches of the Russian economy, the output of which brings a greater economic effect in comparison with export activities. It is concluded that increasing exports of products from these economic sectors, combined with the development of new types of production within the country, will significantly enhance the impact of export activities on the number of employees and on the professional structure of employment. The results can be useful to a wide range of researchers in the field of economics of industries and territories, as well as to federal and regional authorities in the development and revision of various strategic and sectoral documents.
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