Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1817
Natural resource-based industries of the Far East :new drivers of development
Статья научная
The goal of the paper is to study the manifestations of institutional innovations currently being implemented within the framework of a new development model for the Far East economy in the region’s natural resource-based sectors; another goal is to study the areas of Russian-Chinese cooperation, which affect the current state and prospects of development of these industries. The study is based on the theories of resource-based economy, and spatial economy, including regional economy. The main scientific problem raised in the article is at the junction of the studies related to the evaluation of public policy efficiency, system effects of resource projects and their localization at the regional level under the influence of foreign economic factors. The novelty of the research consists in the fact that it formulates and implements the research task of joint consideration of institutional innovations and external factors determining the potential for the development of natural resource sectors in the Far East; thus, the research helps obtain new scientific knowledge in the field of spatial economics...
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Статья научная
Entrepreneurship is considered as a source of increasing economic competitiveness, emergence of innovations, creation of jobs, and realization of public goals. The article shows that the achievement of economic goals is associated not only with entrepreneurship, but also with its individual types (necessitybased and opportunity-based). The author pays attention to identifying the types of entrepreneurship (necessity-based and opportunity-based), determining socio-demographic features of population involved in these types, how representatives of the selected types of work perception, realize the accumulated potential, what type of earnings they prefer (stable, but low incomes / high incomes, but with no guarantees for the future). Information data of the research is data monitoring of the quality of labor potential of the Vologda Oblast population for 2020. In the course, the work identifies the groups of factors that affect the prevalence of these entrepreneurship types (in one case, it is macroeconomic stability, institutions, infrastructure, etc., in the other - for technological improvement, for higher education, vocational training, and efficient markets). The research reveals common features of necessity-based and opportunity-based entrepreneurs and their differences. The author proves that opportunity-based entrepreneurs perceive their activities to a greater extent from the position of focusing on earning respect and recognition, gaining new knowledge, and realizing their potential. They are more likely to rate their prospects for professional development, career growth and professional improvement higher than other groups of entrepreneurs. The practical significance of the study is to identify groups of opportunitybased and necessity-based entrepreneurs, characteristics peculiar to each of them, and to highlight their common and different features. In turn, the latter creates prerequisites for the authorities in terms of creating conditions for each of the groups of entrepreneurs, determining the most effective and successful incentives for activating their potential.
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Статья научная
The article addresses the issue of neural network forecasting of human capital size, structure, and dynamics. The object of the research is the socio-economic system. The subject of the study is the practice of applying neural network models to forecasting socio-economic indicators, human capital in particular. The purpose of this work is to apply neural network modeling and adapt its algorithms to build a forecast of the studied indicator for the future. The statistical base is data on demography, the investment volume in human capital of the regional economic system, as well as the indicators of socio-economic development. The investment volume in human capital is determined by budget and private citizens’ expenditures. To forecast the human capital dynamics the authors used the values of investment volumes the forecast of which, in turn, is built using a neural network modeling. The neural network model used in this study is a multi-layer fully connected perceptron with a sigmoid logistic activation function. Neural network modeling of forecast values of investment volumes has shown its effectiveness. Human capital assessment for the period of 2000-2018 and its forecast for the period of 2019-2023 are based on the example of the regional economic system of the Udmurt Republic. Our calculations show that the highest growth rate of the studied indicator has been demonstrated since 2013, and its further increase is predicted. The results obtained correlate qualitatively with the dynamics of changes in the Russian human development index, determined by the UN experts. The proposed method of calculating and forecasting human capital can be used to assess and compare the socio-economic situation of Russia’s regions.
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New basic principles of the state policy in an area of local self-government development in Russia
Статья научная
The purpose of the article is to highlight the most important economic, legal, and institutional foundations which are advised to be included in the new “Basic principles of national policy on local self-government development through to 2030”. It was concluded that it was a late decision to prepare a new version of the Principles which caused significant difficulties in the practical implementation of reforms in the municipal environment of the Russian Federation along with many gaps and numerous subsequent additions and amendments in Federal Law no. 131-FZ “On the general principles of the organization of local self-government in the Russian Federation”. Nowadays, update of the Principles is very important. It is related to five significant novations which make us reexamine aims and instruments of the state policy in the local self-government area. The first one is a global trend of management decentralization that noticeably strengthens the role of a local link of socio-economic systems. The second important novation is the relevance of a task to implement “federalization” of the government’s management of local self-government. The third novation is a necessity to naturally include local self-government in a unified vertical of strategic planning: its efficient functioning takes a crucial part in providing sustainability of the country, its regions, and municipal territories’ socio-economic development. The fourth demanded novation is expediency to secure a formula, or a principle, that would allow stopping an infinite series of reorganizations of Russian self-government together with various dividing and unifying processes in this sphere. Finally, the fifth novation is a necessity to finish the transformation of Russian local self-government from a low-level component of the administrative and command system into a socio-economic institution that naturally combines features of social authority and the beginning of a modern civil society and practically implements an institutional principle of “independent solution of local issues by people”.
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New breath of the “fourth estate”
Статья научная
In rapidly and chaotically developing globalization processes, which are observed in recent years, the media have become increasingly important as factors influencing social consciousness. This phenomenon is associated with the increasing complexity of social structures and psychological relations in the course of natural evolution of mankind, with the development of information technology as well as the tense international situation caused by the deployment of the so-called hybrid warfare. Impact of the media on public knowledge is particularly relevant for the Russian Federation because, first, the “subjective” factor has always been highly important (which was confirmed more than once by the course of historical events) in the mentality of Russian society, and second, Russia plays a major role in the hybrid warfare. The aim of this study is to identify and characterize the specific features of social perception and social well-being prevailing in the public mind under the influence the media...
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New check points of the region's foreign trade
Статья научная
The article considers the problems of the Russian regions’ foreign trade activity, which complicate qualitative transformations in the foreign commerce, are. In many respects these problems are caused by imperfection of the existing mechanism of state regulation. The necessity and the features of the foreign commerce’s regulation in a federative state are shown. The conceptual bases of the mechanism of the foreign commerce regulation at the regional level, which will promote a more full realization of the foreign commerce potential of a territory and transformation of the foreign commerce relations into the effective factor of the regional development, are formulated. The key directions of the foreign commerce policy of a region for the immediate prospects, which realization will allow diversifying export structure and expanding its geography, are proved. The means of regulating influence assisting to the activity’s coordination between the federal and the regional authorities, and to a region’s integration into the world economy’s space are argued. The opportunities of the mentioned means’ use in the Vologda Area are estimated.
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New forms of employment in Russia: From legal uncertainty to systemic regulation
Статья научная
The relevance of the study stems from the rapid proliferation of new forms of employment in the context of economic digitalization, a process that is outpacing the development of adequate institutional frameworks and thereby generating systemic socio-economic risks. The aim of the paper is to conduct a comparative analysis of expert assessments regarding the current level, barriers, and prospects for the institutionalization of new employment forms in Russia, drawing on a regional case study. The scientific novelty lies in the application of a structured research-expert seminar (focus group) methodology to purposefully juxtapose the perspectives of two key stakeholder groups: labor market professionals (n = 23) and young people directly engaged in new forms of employment (n = 25). The main findings confirm a consensus on the relatively low level of institutionalization. The study reveals a fundamental duality in the perception of the phenomenon under analysis: professional experts predominantly view institutionalization as a "project", focusing on macro-level regulation and investment, whereas young people tend to see it as an "outcome", emphasizing practical guarantees, rights protection, and technological infrastructure. Both expert groups identify legal uncertainty and a crisis of trust in the state – an entity simultaneously regarded as the principal agent of change and a source of systemic obstacles – as the key barriers. The groups' recommendations diverge: professionals primarily propose systemic modernization of regulatory and analytical institutions, while young people express a demand for specific digital services and protective tools. A limitation of the study is its regional focus. A promising avenue for future research is the quantitative verification of the identified criteria and hypotheses using broader datasets.
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New technological shape of basic branches of RF industrial regions
Статья научная
The article emphasizes the increasing importance of industry in the economic development of both developing and developed countries. It highlights the decisive role of basic industries of the RF industrial regions in ensuring the level of their socio-economic development. The work substantiates the possibility to develop basic industries of some industrial regions as the ones that are knowledge-intensive, high-tech and can meet the requirements of new industrialization. The authors propose their understanding of new industrialization in terms of inclusive development. The article introduces a term “repositioning of the regional industrial complex” as a gradual process of interdependent technological, economic, social- institutional, environmental and organizational change based on innovation. It proves that this complex should be viewed as a network of competitive and structurally balanced productions, satisfying individualized needs of the high-tech sector in knowledge-intensive goods and services and increased quality needs of traditional industries...
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Non-formal institutional environment of social entrepreneurship
Статья научная
Social entrepreneurship as an alternative way to solve social problems is rapidly becoming popular. The efficiency of this type of activity largely depends on the formal institutions operating in the territory under consideration, as well as on the prevailing values, habits, customs peculiar to social groups which do not live on it and form an informal institutional environment. The purpose of the study is to simulate the impact of informal institutional environment on social entrepreneurship in the global space. The article analyzes the approaches to analysis of informal institutions; it is shown that this problem is raised in works of both foreign and domestic researchers. The Inglehart-Welzel concept of modernization, cultural change and democracy was used in analysis of informal institutional environment. The information framework of the research consists of international reports of the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor, the World Values Survey, the World Bank for 2015 in 30 countries...
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Non-state preschool education: current practices of territorial development
Статья научная
The paper is concerned with the problem of preschool education in Russia and the Vologda region. It shows that in the current context of shortage of places in state nurseries it is necessary to develop private care service providers. Day-care is in great demand among parents having children aged 1-3. The article analyses the main characteristics of preschool educational organizations. It shows that in the Vologda Oblast, particularly in Vologda, private demand for preschool education service is unsatisfied to a wide extent. In Vologda more than ten thousand children are on waiting lists for preschool educational organizations. In total, in the Vologda Oblast about 28.9 thousand children are in line for admitting to a kindergarten, 34% of them are registered in Vologda. The paper provides the results of the study into Vologda private nurseries and day-care carried out in May-June 2015 by method of involved observation. It reveals the key factors hampering growth of private nurseries...
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Noospheric economy as a planetary active economic sphere of civilization development
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Nowcasting migration using statistics of online queries
Статья научная
Due to international migration’s growing importance in modern countries’ lives, there is an increasing need for reliable and relevant forecasts of this process, especially in today’s turbulent world. However, established migration forecasting procedures suffer from a number of limitations, against which innovative approaches based on big data, notably online searches made by potential migrants, offer many advantages. Because of their novelty, such tools have not yet revealed their full explanatory and predictive properties. The work explores the possibility of using these tools to predict the population flows within the post-Soviet space. We hypothesize that there is a statistical relationship between online queries about migration to Russia made by residents of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan and subsequent human flows from these countries to Russia. The hypothesis was tested using the migration statistics of Rosstat, the Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, Google Trends data on search intensity, and Yandex Wordstat service of word matching for validation of search images. As a result of correlation and regression, we found a moderate dependence of the dynamics of human flows on previous queries, which is most evident at a lag of 6-9 months and at zero lag. Obtaining more accurate results in this and similar studies is hindered by the initial limited predictability of migration behavior due to its contextual, sometimes situational and irrational nature, as well as “noisiness” of statistics of queries and often the flows themselves. The search for universal algorithms of determination of relations between queries and migration flows is seen as the main direction of research in this field.
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Objectives and methods of analyzing energy efficiency in the economy
Статья научная
Energy saving and improving energy efficiency of production are among economic development priorities in Russia and its regions. Energy efficiency issues are given a lot of attention in scientific research on the interrelation of economic and power engineering development. In order to select the methodological tools for regional studies, we have reviewed scientific publications that analyze and evaluate energy efficiency in the economy. As a result of the review, we highlight the relevant research objectives: 1) to clarify the trends and factors leading to changes in energy efficiency of the objects under consideration;2) to compare the energy efficiency of similar objects, to determine the causes of differences and possible growth potential; 3) to identify the spatiotemporal properties of energy variables and causal relationships between energy consumption and economic growth. In accordance with these research objectives we summarize the approaches and methods of statistical analysis, evaluation, and econometric modeling used to address them...
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Статья научная
The main focus of the article is one of the most pressing issues to date: how a public administration system of socioeconomic development of Russian rural territories corresponding to modern realities can be created? The authors have analyzed the main challenges and trends in the transformation of the management object. The first important trend is the formation of an active mobile social group of dachniki (summer residents) breaking the stereotypes about the extinction of the Russian village by their desire to buy real estate in rural areas. And furthermore, they have a request for environmental friendliness and aesthetics of the place of residence. They are joined by enterprising businessmen who are trying to become the leaders of a new resurgent village. However, the unattractiveness of rural areas for business has been revealed due to the lack of access to the main factors of production. All this is happening against the background of outdated rural engineering and social infrastructure, which requires high maintenance costs. However, the world does not stand still and the transition of humanity from an industrial to an information society is characterized by a change in the technological basis, a creative person becomes the main productive force. Today, all spheres of human activity are being digitalized, accessibility borders are being erased, and the time factor is being eliminated. Thus, rural areas should be integrated into these global processes. This, accordingly, requires fundamentally new approaches to the transformation of the subject of management and control actions. The authors propose a new approach for rural areas’ sustainable development through a range of measures: introducing strategic planning and project approach, development of local and territorial public selfgovernment, development of the local mixed economy, cooperation development, introduction of modern technologies, removal of legislative restrictions, introduction of PSEDA (Priority Social and Economic Development Area) mode, effective public administration.
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Статья научная
Nowadays, innovations are regarded as the main factor of economic growth in the region that is recognized by both public authorities and scientific community. In this regard, one of the major scientific challenges is to assess the contribution of an innovation factor to the results of the regional economic development. The researches of this problem presented in the literature are based on the use of production functions apparatus - Cobb - Douglas model, Solow growth model. The author suggests assessing the contribution of an innovation factor to the results of the regional economic development basing on the assessment of various aspects of effective innovation activity - the efficiency of innovation projects, innovation activity of enterprises in the region, management efficiency of innovation processes in the region. Integrated assessment proposes to compare in dynamics the growth of gross regional product and regional innovation cost.
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On assessing the impact of social risks on the life expectancy of economically active population
Статья научная
Intensive transformations of public life generate a wide range of social risks that have a negative impact on the life expectancy of economically active population. In addition to the well-described risks (insurance, environmental, food), an increasing number of new threats are emerging (digitalization, pandemics, geopolitical challenges, etc.); this exacerbates issues related to the ability and possibility to adequately respond to environmental requirements at the individual level, and also determines the need for timely and correct management decisions in this area at the meso and macro levels. All this highlights the need to deepen the scientific understanding of the current structure of social risks and find new approaches to assessing the impact of social risks on the population. Thus, the aim of the study is to identify current social risks and assess their impact on the life expectancy of economically active population in Russian regions. The research data were derived from Rosstat’s statistics on the socio-economic situation of Russia’s regions for 2019-2022. At the stage of exploratory research, in order to clarify the structure and content of social risks, we used factor analysis, which determined the social risks relevant to the economically active population of Russian regions during the period under review; we also put forward their typology in terms of duration of exposure (systems and situational). Using automated regression modeling methods, we determined the importance and significance of the identified risks in each of the years under consideration (2019-2022). Scientific novelty of the study lies in proving that life expectancy of the economically active population of Russian regions is influenced by systems social risks typical for the entire period in question, as well as situational social risks that are short-term and that arise during the crisis. It is proved that the results obtained help to apply a differentiated approach to the implementation of measures to increase life expectancy - through long-term strategic programs to reduce the impact of systems social risks or targeted short-term solutions of a predominantly economic nature to overcome the negative impact of situational social risks, which can contribute to improving the effectiveness of governmental and regional social policy
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