Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1745
Статья научная
The researchers are considering the population, demographic processes and settlement of the World Arctic. It is noted that many issues have accumulated in the Arctic: from socio-demographic problems to resettlement ones. Each country solves these problems in its own way, using both universal and private approaches. The article is aimed at considering approaches used in the Russian and foreign practice to studying demographic processes and settlement of the World Arctic. Among the Russian and foreign approaches, it is necessary to mention the following ones: demographic zoning, gender, geopolitical, qualitative, combined, intersectoral, descriptive and historical, statistical, network, systemic, socio-psychological, sociological, technical and economic, ecological and biological approaches, and others. Using these approaches the process of settlement/colonization, the system of the population’s resettlement, and demographic trends in the World Arctic have been considered. It is noted that the colonization of the European North of Russia was taking place from the 10th till the 17th century, Siberia and the Far East - from the end of the 16th till the middle of the 19th century. Settlement has been carried out by its own people; Russia had no need in attracting settlers from other countries. Based on the demographic approach it has been concluded that by the beginning of the 20th century the process of colonization had been completed, and the natural demographic development and further development of the marginal territories had begun. In the foreign Arctic early colonization was of a trade and field nature, then the extraction of raw material resources had started. From the first half of the 20th century the military interest started to dominate; today the economic interest in the development of the Arctic is prevalent. Two opposite trends have been noted in the demographic development: the recessive population dynamics in the Russian Arctic and its constant growth in the foreign one. The settlement network of the Russian Arctic was forming by the network of cities of different sizes, in the foreign one small settlements were created in the initial period; now the network of medium and large cities is expanding. In the recent years the work on a rotational basis has been widely used in the World Arctic.
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Population quality and regional economy: direct and indirect correlation
Статья научная
The article presents informative analysis of the place and role of population quality in the country’s socio-economic development. The study has two major objectives: to determine the dependence of quality characteristics of the population on purely economic factors, and assess the extent and nature of the impact of the population quality on economic development. We present an extended author’s description of the category “population quality” which includes the following aspects: economic activity, demographic processes, physical health, cultural potential, social health, educational potential, attitude to the environment. Ten statistical indicators out of 63 were selected and substantiated using correlation analysis within these aspects describing quality characteristics of the population. The information framework of the research includes data from the Federal State Statistics Service on 83 constituent entities of Russia for 2014. Based on selected indicators we conducted cluster analysis which helped classify elped the regions including and excluding economic factors...
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Статья научная
Development of modern Russian society is based on intellectual potential and its capitalization. Knowledge and competence of its development play a key role in this complex system process. Competence possibilities of sociological knowledge should have a prospective nature of accumulation and be effectively applied in the regions of the country. State bodies realize the need for intellectual development. Strategic targets and program activities are developing to stimulate this process in the regions. In the Republic of Bashkortostan sociologists are involved in this process.
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Post-industrial technological mode of production: time of emergence
Статья научная
The article characterizes a postindustrial technological way of production, an indicator, a set of technologies and connection with the pre-industrial and industrial technological methods of production. The development of the sixth technological mode is treated as the beginning of formation of the postindustrial technological way of production. The author reveals possibilities and prospects of post-industrial technologies. Many countries are conducting research on the application of post-industrial technologies despite industrial production, leading in the world. The article draws attention to the strengthening of measures on development of post-industrial technologies in our country.
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Post-industrialism: the experience of critical analysis
Статья научная
A cycle of research, devoted to the genesis of the concept of postindustrial society, has been completed recently in the Governance and Problem Analysis Center (Moscow). This article was written based on those studies by the Scientific Director of the Center Vladimir I. Yakunin, and it was offered to be published in our journal.
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Potential for Asia-Pacific countries innovative development
Статья научная
The relevance of the chosen topic is determined by the new geo-economic situation. Since the end of the 20th century, the vector of global economic development has shifted towards the Asia-Pacific region. Russia's economic entry to the Asia Pacific region is a necessary condition for its internal sustainability and competitiveness on the international stage. The purpose for the research is to assess the level of innovative and technological development in Asia-Pacific countries with further clustering. Integrated assessment remains understudied, in particular, in the context of Asia-Pacific market. The authors estimate innovative activity of 42 Asia-Pacific countries during 2008-2013 (252 observations), built regression models, use their own methodology for clustering Asia-Pacific countries by level of innovation development in 2008-2013 according to indicators of innovative activity. The study identifies the most significant factors the changes in which have a positive impact on innovative development of a country: “human potential factor”, “factor of innovative development”, “factors facilitating (impeding) the development of human abilities”...
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Potential of technogenic mineral raw materials in Russia and the issues of its rational use
Статья научная
The increasing negative impact of mining waste on natural ecosystems often leads to their irreversible destruction, a trend that is gradually becoming global. The particular relevance of the research is explained, on the one hand, by the possibilities of minimization of specific volumes of formation of mining waste in all types of industries; on the other hand, by the possibilities of maximization of comprehensive use of their valuable components as secondary material resources on an economically rational basis and the possibilities of restoring the disturbed natural environment. The rational use of natural and technogenic mineral raw materials is greatly facilitated by the geological exploration and geological-economic evaluation of the resources, which requires the development of specific methodological approaches to the economic justification of resource estimation parameters for outlining and calculating the multicomponent commercial reserves of raw materials and separate valuable components in them...
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Статья научная
The article examines the potential and development vector of the tourism and recreation sphere in the European North in current conditions. We present the results of the research aimed at defining the potential level of the European North’s tourism and recreation sphere and developing areas of its growth within the Arctic development on this basis. We name the objects of tourist attraction in the Arctic zones and show the monuments of cultural, historical, and natural heritage in the European North. We conduct a critical analysis of methodologies for defining the tourist potential level and reveal its pros and cons. We justify the necessity to develop efficient methodological approaches to studying the resource potential of the tourism and recreation sphere. We propose the following criteria for evaluating the tourist potential of northern regions: image of the tourist region, degree of the tourist infrastructure development, labor potential of tourism, transport accessibility and environmental friendliness of the territory, comfort and safety of tourists, competitive, institutional, and innovative components of the tourism sector. We reveal northern territories with the highest tourist potential on the basis of the results received after testing the author’s methodology for evaluating the tourism resource potential, which implies the carrying out of the expert assessment considering the importance and manifestation of the tourist potential components. They are the basis for designing tourist and recreation zones and forming new tourist destinations. We mark the problems and prospects of developing tourist activity in the European North. It is justified that problem-oriented concept should be the development vector of the tourism and recreation sphere of northern tourist territories in modern conditions. We determine the significance of the study for the theory of tourism. We develop recommendations on the application of the obtained results in management and development of tourism and recreation in the European North.
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Статья научная
The paper considers the role and place of monetary policy in ensuring the reproduction of modern economy. Monetary policy conducted by the Bank of Russia is based on the IMF’s universal recommendations, which are inconsistent both with the conditions of reproduction of the Russian economy and with specific features of the current period of structural changes in the world economy. The ongoing change of technological and world economic orders is accompanied by fundamental changes in the composition of the industries that determine economic growth, as well as in the system of institutions for managing economic reproduction. The resulting opportunities for a breakthrough in the development of the Russian economy can be implemented only in conditions of an appropriate monetary policy focused on lending to promising areas of economic growth within the existing production factors. The goal of the present paper is to substantiate the mismatch between the monetary policy and the potential opportunities for the growth of the Russian economy in the conditions of changing technological and global economic orders. The paper criticizes the draft major directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2019 and for the period of 2020-2021 and proves that they are inconsistent with modern knowledge about the laws of economic development and growth opportunities of the Russian economy.
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Power and society: search for the ways of formation of mutual trust
Статья научная
The article considers the issues associated with the low level of political trust in modern Russia and its consequences for the political regime; it also considers the sources of political trust and the ways of its formation. The article summarizes the most important theoretical and practical aspects using the works of researchers specializing in this field and fundamental texts on the subject. The author emphasizes the special responsibility of the government for the building of mutual trust in politics. He offers some ways to build political trust, focused on public awareness, education, and involvement of society in joint activities.
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Precarious employment in the Vologda oblast: current state and trends
Статья научная
The paper is devoted to the study of the phenomenon of precarious employment in Russian regions. Today, the socio-economic sciences lack a single concept of precarious employment applicable to Russian conditions. Despite the considerable amount of scientific and practical works of domestic and foreign authors on the issue of precarious employment, the criteria of its statistical evaluation as applied to Russian conditions have not been determined. At the same time, the development of precarious employment threatens the country's socio-economic welfare, because it creates the risk of unwanted effects such as poor employment, hidden and open unemployment, lower labor productivity, degradation of human capital, etc. The paper provides a brief review of research on the problem stated, and defines precarious employment. The author makes an attempt to determine and substantiate the list of indicators available in official statistics for assessing precarious employment in the region...
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Статья научная
The article considers the issue concerning the transformation of political discontent to protest behaviour, which is insufficiently examined in the domestic scientific literature; the processes and factors facilitating this process are analyzed. The authors apply the empirical data of the monitoring of the public opinion of the Vologda Oblast residents, conducted by the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences. A new integrated model of protest is presented.
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Статья научная
The article deals with the use of econometric macromodels for solving applied problems to substantiate economic policy. The questions of the applicability of econometric methods for modeling economic processes are considered. The requirements for the key qualities of complex macroeconomic models are being formed. Emphasis is placed on the fact that it is econometric modeling based on large amounts of data that contributes to a deep analysis of the causal relationships existing in the economy. As an illustration, we use the description of the quarterly macroeconomic model QUMMIR, which has been used for a decade and a half at the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences for medium-term forecasting. It is shown that in conditions of increasing economic uncertainty, the importance of analyzing scenarios of socio-economic development and substantiating economic policy measures aimed at tapping the internal potential of economic development increases. We argue that the use of advanced predictive and analytical tools can significantly improve the quality of forecast estimates and the validity of decisions made on their basis. The structure of the model is described in detail with an emphasis on budget and financial blocks. The final part of the article provides an example of using a quarterly macroeconomic model to analyze decisions in the field of fiscal and monetary policy. Calculations demonstrate a positive impact on the dynamics of GDP on the part of budget system expenditures in the absence of a significant effect on the growth of inflation. In terms of monetary policy, calculations demonstrate its relative neutrality in relation to economic dynamics, as well as the exhaustion of the positive impact on the economy in the current conditions due to the weakening of the ruble exchange rate.
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Статья научная
The successful experience of France in implementing the concept of “growth poles” byF. Perroux led to the widespread usage of polarized development ideas in the elaboration of spatial strategies. The Russian Far East (FE) has accumulated considerable, and rather contradictory, experience of creating local growth points. The purpose of the study is to analyze the Far East’s experience of forming local zones with preferential economic regimes, to identify problems of its implementation, and to assess the impact of special local zones’ regimes on the economy of the macro-region. The analysis of the performance of local zones’ functioning was based on the assessment of the degree of achieving targets for creating local “growth points”. The assessment of the impact of local zones on the economy of FE was based on a comparative analysis of enterprises’ demographics, changes in the revenue structure of consolidated budgets of Far Eastern regions, and the quality of regional finances for 2013-2019. The implementation of these approaches showed that the business climate of Far Eastern local zones has a positive nature for its residents, but it has not yet been established; in the absence of a clear position of the state concerning the formation of propulsive industries in most local areas, anchor projects do not have a propulsive nature, and a significant number of small and medium enterprises is loosely connected with enterprises-leaders of zones. Orientation of specialization of Far Eastern local zones toward domestic demand and import substitution, which is objectively formed within the sanctions war, can slow down its export specialization; preferential climate of local zones has no obvious positive impact on the business climate of Far Eastern entities of the Federation, and the growing number of residents with preferential business conditions in local zones dissonant with demographics of FE enterprises. There is a deterioration of the quality of regional finances and the decrease of the taxable mass of profits. It implies the reduction of the number of profitable enterprises in FE as the result of the economic situation deterioration and the introduction of a preferential tax regime in region’s local areas.
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Prerequisites for global geopolitical inversion
Статья научная
The article considers a possibility of change of the current global world economic leader - the United States. The author introduces the concept “geopolitical inversion”, which means the change of the global economic center. The article describes a common globalizing trend in the formation of the world centers of capital, provides quantitative characteristics of this process - the indices of territorial and demographic dominance. The article uses the example of the UK and the USA to show five steps in geopolitical inversion and give their chronology. The author makes some suggestions concerning a new global leader that could succeed the USA.
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Preserving children's health: search for the ways of solving relevant issues
Статья научная
Changed social reality, caused by the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), made attention to population’s health, its risks, and defining factors relevant. Nowadays, an individual’s personal responsibility for own health and coherence of various social institutions’ activities in the formation of children’s health are of particular importance. The article is devoted to an analysis of children’s health and search for the ways of its improvement. The authors explore the issues of availability and quality of medical services, safeguard of children’s health and discuss the barriers to inter-institutional cooperation in this field, as well as ways of overcoming them. To achieve these objectives, we used quantitative and qualitative sociological methods: a sociological survey of families with children aged 3-17 years, monitoring observation of cohorts of families with children, focus group studies of parents of children aged 3-17 years, an expert survey of specialists of the regional health system and members of government authorities. The authors reveal several issues: decline of children’s health potential in growing; insufficient awareness of parents about the state, forms, and methods of preserving and strengthening children’s health, discrepancy between parents’ ideas about their own competence in this matter with reality; lack of narrow-profile specialists in children’s medical institutions; absence of medical workers among full-time staff of educational organizations; queues and complexity of making appointments with specialists; low availability of free and high cost of paid medical services; insufficient information interaction between medical, educational organizations and parents in the prevention of diseases; lack of parents’ knowledge of full information about objectives of professional examinations and insufficient awareness of the importance of further actions to restore and strengthen health of children. Based on the analysis, we stated the areas of solving these problems. They may include the development and implementation of specific management tools to preserve children’s health potential.
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President Vladimir Putin's third four-year term: contradictory outcomes - an expected result
Ред. заметка
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Pressing issues of disability employment
Статья научная
Disability employment is a major tool for creating inclusive society. In Russia, the main obstacles to employment of the disabled are imperfect statutory measures aimed at improving competitiveness of this population group in the labor market; low prestige of jobs for people with disabilities; the employers' unwillingness to hire disabled people. The purpose of this study is to determine the barriers disabled people face on the labor market and to justify the expedience of investing public funds in activities aimed at promoting disabled employment. Works of Russian and foreign authors, national statistics, results of sociological surveys of the population and people with disabilities conducted on the territory of the Vologda Oblast in 2013-2015 represent the information base of the study. The article reviews the impact of employment quotas for the disabled; in particular, it has been established that the number of the employed under such quotas during the period from 2008 to 2014 has declined...
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Principles and practice of operation of foreign technology transfer centers
Статья научная
The article provides a classification of intermediary organizations market innovation (technology transfer centers, business innovation centers, development agencies, etc.) on the following criteria: the founder, the organizational-legal form, market focus, the method of funding, the main directions of activities, staff, the results. The features of the system transfer technologies in the USA, Germany, Japan, Australia, China, South Africa, etc. Conducted during the study analysis showed that to date there is no universal model for the functioning of technology transfer centers. However, the experience of most foreign countries is evidence of the need for major components of infrastructure for technology transfer: the legal framework governing the activities of technology transfer, financial support from both the state and the private sector, skilled and qualified personnel. Initial data for the performance served as a special methodical and reference literature of domestic and foreign authors.
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Статья научная
In Russia, the development of strategic socio-economic development programs is regulated by Federal Law 172-FZ of June 28, 2014, according to which long-term development ideas should be displayed on the schemes of territorial development. The main problem in the development of territorial planning schemes concerns the accuracy of forecasting the number of population living in municipal entities in relation to the time horizon determined by strategic plans. Practical application of the correlation between the population and the number of jobs created or saved can translate the amount of financial resources provided for the implementation of long-term development programs into quantitative indicators necessary to calculate the number and capacity of social and transport infrastructure facilities. The goal of our research is to prove the existence of statistical dependence of the number of population on the number of jobs in the regional and municipal economy. To achieve the goal we determined the statistical correlation between the population of Russia's regions and the number of jobs in the economy (employed population)...
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