Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en
Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1763
Policy priorities in the health protection sector of a northern region
Статья научная
The article is devoted to the modernization of the health of a northern region (the example of the Murmansk Oblast) and the promising directions of implementing its own policies in the health protection sector at a regional level. The article gives the analysis of the medical and demographic situation in the Murmansk Oblast, as well as the main priorities of the modern regional policy in the health protection sector. It identifies the priority directions of the policy in this sector, requiring implementation at federal, regional and local levels.
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Political blackmail - the eve of the global catastrophe
Статья научная
The article by the leading Russian sociologist and political scientist, who has been studying Russia-U.S. relations for decades, raises an acute issue concerning the necessity of immediate cessation of confrontation between the U.S. and Russia and transition to joint control over the processes going on in the world, and establishment of the multipolar model of the global community. The author provides numerous examples of interaction between the superpowers and the newly emerged countries, former Soviet republics; he shows that particular threat comes from the quasi-states of the former USSR, who seek to fuel the U.S.-Russian confrontation for their own selfish purposes. This policy was manifested especially clearly in the actions of the “Maidan” authorities in Ukraine, who launched the armed terror against its own people in the East of the country to accommodate the U.S. interests and the NATO alliance controlled by this country. The author believes that the response of Russia to such hostile actions of the USA and their Ukrainian proteges should be adequate; it should be composed and peacekeeping, but when the “red” line is crossed - hard and adamant...
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Статья научная
The paper discusses some features of the source of social entrepreneurship as a new form of business organization, aimed at implementing social objectives in the context of strengthening neoliberal trends in economic policy and economic theory, rather than at maximizing the owners’ profit. It is demonstrated that, remaining within the framework of the neoliberal ideology which retains its influence in the economic science, it is impossible to create an adequate theory explaining the importance of social entrepreneurship in the context of the process of changing paradigms of economic relations, since under the influence of this ideology false stereotypes are established, which is accompanied by falsification of historical facts. In this context it seems that the methodology of political economy, taking into account the current trends in the transformation of socio-economic relations and the deviation of the trend of social development from the framework of the formally preserved, but declining neoliberal paradigm, is very popular, especially since its problem areas include issues such as the distinction between individual and social forms of production, the relations between the necessary and surplus product, the distribution of surplus value (in case of its occurrence), the issues of individualization and socialization of economic phenomena, the correlation between market and non-market production areas and distribution of the final product, the issue of recognizing the social significance of the result of individual labor...
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Polycausal concept of social evolution
Статья научная
The article puts forward a polycausal concept of social evolution (PCSE) based on taking into consideration the structure of the competition mechanism. The novelty of the PCSE lies in the simultaneous consideration of a set of interrelated variables of the competition mechanism that exclude the establishment of simple cause-and-effect relationships typical of monocausal theoretical constructions. A structural scheme of the PCSE includes the subject, object, environment and the process of competition; all of them are directly associated with such civilizational phenomena as technology, institutions, culture and ecosystem; together, these variables determine the nature of economic growth and the type of capitalist (market) relations. This approach can be called a method of structural (organizational) competition. To illustrate the PCSE and test its explanatory capabilities, we look for answers to the following classic questions: Why has human civilization matured in Eurasia rather than in other continents? How did humanity manage to break out of the Malthusian trap? How can we explain the Needham Puzzle? Why are some countries and peoples rich, while others are poor? Why do some poor countries and peoples manage to catch up with rich ones, while others do not? How can we explain the “case of the USSR”? The proposed PCSE is used to reconstruct key events in the history of human civilization. For this purpose, we put forward a structural outline of social evolution, which includes basic principles and mechanisms that determine certain results of the development of human societies. In conclusion, we make an attempt to use the PCSE to designate reference points of a modern civilizational crisis.
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Population health of large cities: trends and risks
Статья научная
The article considers the problem of forming and maintaining the health of the population living in the big city by giving an example of the cities of Vologda and Cherepovets. Based on the correlation analysis the factors having both positive and negative effects on the health of the population of large cities have been identified. With an allowance for intensive development of urban areas at the present stage the author has outlined the main priorities of the activities on maintaining the health of urban populations.
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Population inequality and its impact on the region's socio-economic development
Статья научная
The article is written on the basis of the study of the population's inequality effect on economic and demographic indexes of the Vologda region in the period of 1997 - 2007. The authors carried out a statistical evaluation of the effect of normal and excessive inequality in gross domestic product and indicators of mortality and fertility. The economic and social losses from the population's inequality in the region are identified.
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Population migration as a factor in Belarus demographic security
Статья научная
The article presents a brief description of the demographic situation in the Republic of Belarus in the beginning of 21st century. It indicates the special role of migration in reducing negative demographic processes. The curb on natural loss of population, the impact on its gender and age structure and the rate of aging, as well as the formation of the total population increase in the administrative units of the Republic are regarded as important social aspects of the external migration of the population of Belarus.
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Статья научная
The researchers are considering the population, demographic processes and settlement of the World Arctic. It is noted that many issues have accumulated in the Arctic: from socio-demographic problems to resettlement ones. Each country solves these problems in its own way, using both universal and private approaches. The article is aimed at considering approaches used in the Russian and foreign practice to studying demographic processes and settlement of the World Arctic. Among the Russian and foreign approaches, it is necessary to mention the following ones: demographic zoning, gender, geopolitical, qualitative, combined, intersectoral, descriptive and historical, statistical, network, systemic, socio-psychological, sociological, technical and economic, ecological and biological approaches, and others. Using these approaches the process of settlement/colonization, the system of the population’s resettlement, and demographic trends in the World Arctic have been considered. It is noted that the colonization of the European North of Russia was taking place from the 10th till the 17th century, Siberia and the Far East - from the end of the 16th till the middle of the 19th century. Settlement has been carried out by its own people; Russia had no need in attracting settlers from other countries. Based on the demographic approach it has been concluded that by the beginning of the 20th century the process of colonization had been completed, and the natural demographic development and further development of the marginal territories had begun. In the foreign Arctic early colonization was of a trade and field nature, then the extraction of raw material resources had started. From the first half of the 20th century the military interest started to dominate; today the economic interest in the development of the Arctic is prevalent. Two opposite trends have been noted in the demographic development: the recessive population dynamics in the Russian Arctic and its constant growth in the foreign one. The settlement network of the Russian Arctic was forming by the network of cities of different sizes, in the foreign one small settlements were created in the initial period; now the network of medium and large cities is expanding. In the recent years the work on a rotational basis has been widely used in the World Arctic.
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Population quality and regional economy: direct and indirect correlation
Статья научная
The article presents informative analysis of the place and role of population quality in the country’s socio-economic development. The study has two major objectives: to determine the dependence of quality characteristics of the population on purely economic factors, and assess the extent and nature of the impact of the population quality on economic development. We present an extended author’s description of the category “population quality” which includes the following aspects: economic activity, demographic processes, physical health, cultural potential, social health, educational potential, attitude to the environment. Ten statistical indicators out of 63 were selected and substantiated using correlation analysis within these aspects describing quality characteristics of the population. The information framework of the research includes data from the Federal State Statistics Service on 83 constituent entities of Russia for 2014. Based on selected indicators we conducted cluster analysis which helped classify elped the regions including and excluding economic factors...
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Статья научная
Development of modern Russian society is based on intellectual potential and its capitalization. Knowledge and competence of its development play a key role in this complex system process. Competence possibilities of sociological knowledge should have a prospective nature of accumulation and be effectively applied in the regions of the country. State bodies realize the need for intellectual development. Strategic targets and program activities are developing to stimulate this process in the regions. In the Republic of Bashkortostan sociologists are involved in this process.
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Post-industrial technological mode of production: time of emergence
Статья научная
The article characterizes a postindustrial technological way of production, an indicator, a set of technologies and connection with the pre-industrial and industrial technological methods of production. The development of the sixth technological mode is treated as the beginning of formation of the postindustrial technological way of production. The author reveals possibilities and prospects of post-industrial technologies. Many countries are conducting research on the application of post-industrial technologies despite industrial production, leading in the world. The article draws attention to the strengthening of measures on development of post-industrial technologies in our country.
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Post-industrialism: the experience of critical analysis
Статья научная
A cycle of research, devoted to the genesis of the concept of postindustrial society, has been completed recently in the Governance and Problem Analysis Center (Moscow). This article was written based on those studies by the Scientific Director of the Center Vladimir I. Yakunin, and it was offered to be published in our journal.
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Potential for Asia-Pacific countries innovative development
Статья научная
The relevance of the chosen topic is determined by the new geo-economic situation. Since the end of the 20th century, the vector of global economic development has shifted towards the Asia-Pacific region. Russia's economic entry to the Asia Pacific region is a necessary condition for its internal sustainability and competitiveness on the international stage. The purpose for the research is to assess the level of innovative and technological development in Asia-Pacific countries with further clustering. Integrated assessment remains understudied, in particular, in the context of Asia-Pacific market. The authors estimate innovative activity of 42 Asia-Pacific countries during 2008-2013 (252 observations), built regression models, use their own methodology for clustering Asia-Pacific countries by level of innovation development in 2008-2013 according to indicators of innovative activity. The study identifies the most significant factors the changes in which have a positive impact on innovative development of a country: “human potential factor”, “factor of innovative development”, “factors facilitating (impeding) the development of human abilities”...
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Potential of technogenic mineral raw materials in Russia and the issues of its rational use
Статья научная
The increasing negative impact of mining waste on natural ecosystems often leads to their irreversible destruction, a trend that is gradually becoming global. The particular relevance of the research is explained, on the one hand, by the possibilities of minimization of specific volumes of formation of mining waste in all types of industries; on the other hand, by the possibilities of maximization of comprehensive use of their valuable components as secondary material resources on an economically rational basis and the possibilities of restoring the disturbed natural environment. The rational use of natural and technogenic mineral raw materials is greatly facilitated by the geological exploration and geological-economic evaluation of the resources, which requires the development of specific methodological approaches to the economic justification of resource estimation parameters for outlining and calculating the multicomponent commercial reserves of raw materials and separate valuable components in them...
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Статья научная
The article examines the potential and development vector of the tourism and recreation sphere in the European North in current conditions. We present the results of the research aimed at defining the potential level of the European North’s tourism and recreation sphere and developing areas of its growth within the Arctic development on this basis. We name the objects of tourist attraction in the Arctic zones and show the monuments of cultural, historical, and natural heritage in the European North. We conduct a critical analysis of methodologies for defining the tourist potential level and reveal its pros and cons. We justify the necessity to develop efficient methodological approaches to studying the resource potential of the tourism and recreation sphere. We propose the following criteria for evaluating the tourist potential of northern regions: image of the tourist region, degree of the tourist infrastructure development, labor potential of tourism, transport accessibility and environmental friendliness of the territory, comfort and safety of tourists, competitive, institutional, and innovative components of the tourism sector. We reveal northern territories with the highest tourist potential on the basis of the results received after testing the author’s methodology for evaluating the tourism resource potential, which implies the carrying out of the expert assessment considering the importance and manifestation of the tourist potential components. They are the basis for designing tourist and recreation zones and forming new tourist destinations. We mark the problems and prospects of developing tourist activity in the European North. It is justified that problem-oriented concept should be the development vector of the tourism and recreation sphere of northern tourist territories in modern conditions. We determine the significance of the study for the theory of tourism. We develop recommendations on the application of the obtained results in management and development of tourism and recreation in the European North.
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Статья научная
The paper considers the role and place of monetary policy in ensuring the reproduction of modern economy. Monetary policy conducted by the Bank of Russia is based on the IMF’s universal recommendations, which are inconsistent both with the conditions of reproduction of the Russian economy and with specific features of the current period of structural changes in the world economy. The ongoing change of technological and world economic orders is accompanied by fundamental changes in the composition of the industries that determine economic growth, as well as in the system of institutions for managing economic reproduction. The resulting opportunities for a breakthrough in the development of the Russian economy can be implemented only in conditions of an appropriate monetary policy focused on lending to promising areas of economic growth within the existing production factors. The goal of the present paper is to substantiate the mismatch between the monetary policy and the potential opportunities for the growth of the Russian economy in the conditions of changing technological and global economic orders. The paper criticizes the draft major directions of the unified state monetary policy for 2019 and for the period of 2020-2021 and proves that they are inconsistent with modern knowledge about the laws of economic development and growth opportunities of the Russian economy.
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Power and society: search for the ways of formation of mutual trust
Статья научная
The article considers the issues associated with the low level of political trust in modern Russia and its consequences for the political regime; it also considers the sources of political trust and the ways of its formation. The article summarizes the most important theoretical and practical aspects using the works of researchers specializing in this field and fundamental texts on the subject. The author emphasizes the special responsibility of the government for the building of mutual trust in politics. He offers some ways to build political trust, focused on public awareness, education, and involvement of society in joint activities.
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Precarious employment in the Vologda oblast: current state and trends
Статья научная
The paper is devoted to the study of the phenomenon of precarious employment in Russian regions. Today, the socio-economic sciences lack a single concept of precarious employment applicable to Russian conditions. Despite the considerable amount of scientific and practical works of domestic and foreign authors on the issue of precarious employment, the criteria of its statistical evaluation as applied to Russian conditions have not been determined. At the same time, the development of precarious employment threatens the country's socio-economic welfare, because it creates the risk of unwanted effects such as poor employment, hidden and open unemployment, lower labor productivity, degradation of human capital, etc. The paper provides a brief review of research on the problem stated, and defines precarious employment. The author makes an attempt to determine and substantiate the list of indicators available in official statistics for assessing precarious employment in the region...
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Статья научная
The article considers the issue concerning the transformation of political discontent to protest behaviour, which is insufficiently examined in the domestic scientific literature; the processes and factors facilitating this process are analyzed. The authors apply the empirical data of the monitoring of the public opinion of the Vologda Oblast residents, conducted by the Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences. A new integrated model of protest is presented.
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Статья научная
The article deals with the use of econometric macromodels for solving applied problems to substantiate economic policy. The questions of the applicability of econometric methods for modeling economic processes are considered. The requirements for the key qualities of complex macroeconomic models are being formed. Emphasis is placed on the fact that it is econometric modeling based on large amounts of data that contributes to a deep analysis of the causal relationships existing in the economy. As an illustration, we use the description of the quarterly macroeconomic model QUMMIR, which has been used for a decade and a half at the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences for medium-term forecasting. It is shown that in conditions of increasing economic uncertainty, the importance of analyzing scenarios of socio-economic development and substantiating economic policy measures aimed at tapping the internal potential of economic development increases. We argue that the use of advanced predictive and analytical tools can significantly improve the quality of forecast estimates and the validity of decisions made on their basis. The structure of the model is described in detail with an emphasis on budget and financial blocks. The final part of the article provides an example of using a quarterly macroeconomic model to analyze decisions in the field of fiscal and monetary policy. Calculations demonstrate a positive impact on the dynamics of GDP on the part of budget system expenditures in the absence of a significant effect on the growth of inflation. In terms of monetary policy, calculations demonstrate its relative neutrality in relation to economic dynamics, as well as the exhaustion of the positive impact on the economy in the current conditions due to the weakening of the ruble exchange rate.
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