Social and economic development. Рубрика в журнале - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Social capital of the Russian region: state and dynamics
Статья научная
Social capital is the basic characteristic of the system of social relations arising in a territorial community. In the context of ongoing global transformations, manifested both on a national scale and at the regional level, there is a need to analyze the changing social reality. We consider the concept of social capital as a promising explanatory model in the analysis of ongoing social changes. Based on this theoretical approach, the goal was set to analyze the state and dynamics of the social capital of the territorial community. The object of the study is the territorial community of the Vologda Oblast, the subject is the state and dynamics of social capital. The novelty of the work consists in obtaining analytical data by conducting a unique long-term observation, which has become, in fact, monitoring. The study used the author’s methodology for determining the level of accumulated social capital based on its integral index calculated for each respondent, which allows us to identify groups of its carriers characterized by different amounts of social resources that can serve as a factor of noneconomic development. The empirical basis of the study is the results of public opinion polls conducted in 2016, 2019, 2020 and 2021 among the population of the Vologda Oblast on a multi-stage, quota-based settlement and demographic characteristics, a random sample at the stage of selecting respondents. In the course of the study, fairly stable groups were identified that maintain their boundaries throughout the observation period. The changes in the social capital index recorded during the observation period serve as an indicator of its dynamism. The influence of environmental factors, for example, the pandemic, which affected the loss of social capital, was revealed. The analysis showed that various local communities differed both in the volume of losses and in the ability to restore social ties. The least losses and faster recovery were observed in rural areas. The results of the study can be used in the activities of federal, regional public authorities, local governments, scientific and educational organizations in the analysis of social processes in regional territorial communities, as well as serve as a basis for further research on the subject under consideration.
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Social forecasting in the strategic management of the development of higher education in Russia
Статья научная
Social forecasting is directly related to the management of changes in the economy and social sphere, including higher education. The relevance of the study is associated with the analysis of the problem of forecasting indicators of higher education through the prism of the targets of national projects implemented in the context of a prolonged COVID-19 pandemic. The global epidemic aggravates the socio-economic situation in the world community, makes it highly instable and uncertain, thereby increasing the demand for social development forecasts. The purpose of our research is to study the potential of social forecasting in the state strategic management of the development of higher education in Russia. A special task revealing its scientific novelty is to diagnose the problem of measurement and profiling the methodology of reproduction of the “strategic intelligentsia” (elite) as a “transformative” subjectivity. In the study, we rely on the theory of the socio-cultural management model put forward by Professor A.V. Tikhonov, as well as on the authors socioprognostic approach to management, which acts as a special methodological means of scientific search, integrating ideas and theoretical constructs in the field of social sciences and humanities, while substantiating the solutions to promising problems with the use of modern project-based technologies. With the help of these tools, we profile the multivariate levels of scientific foresight and strategic management, analyze the forecasting and regulatory actions of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation as a macroregulator of the functioning and development of higher education, and identify key components in reformatting and optimizing social forecasting in the state strategic management of higher education development. The work is based on the perspective practice of research of manageability of regional development and social group formation, which is in demand by the academic community, acquired by scientists of the Center for Sociology of Management and Social Technologies of the Institute Sociology - Branch of the Federal Center of Theoretical and Applied Sociology of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2015-2020, including that achieved in the study of higher education as a resource for managing the socio-cultural modernization of regions. The materials of the article have theoretical and practical significance; they are intended for specialists in the field of state, regional and municipal management, as well as experts in social forecasting and strategic management of the development of higher education in Russia.
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Статья научная
The way of life of the indigenous and incoming population of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation requires a detailed study, since it is in these areas that the exploration and extraction of minerals for the purpose of territorial industrial development has been actively carried out in recent decades. The article reveals the social portrait of residents of Russia's Arctic regions, who are immediate participants in the changes taking place in the territories of their residence and associated with the implementation of large-scale mining projects. We conducted the empirical part of the study in 2017-2020 in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), where placer gold and diamonds are currently explored and mined, and in the Taimyr Dolgano-Nenets Municipal District of Krasnoyarsk Krai. The object of the study was the economic behavior of local residents of the Arctic regions; the subject was their attitude toward the activities of mining companies. As a result of a sociological survey in the form of questionnaires (cluster sample, 859 people, age selection from 18 years and older), informal conversations with local residents, we gave their socio-demographic characteristics, presented their attitude toward traditional trades and crafts and toward the industrial development of Russia's Arctic regions. The practical significance of the study consists in analyzing modern characteristics of an Arctic resident; this analysis can be of use to various stakeholders involved in the implementation of state programs for the development of Russia's Arctic territories. The study of the problems and needs of indigenous peoples of the Arctic zone of Russia allows avoiding resource conflicts between state structures, industrial companies and the local population.
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Статья научная
The growth of the quality of human potential is an important component of the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” (Chinese dream) and a key goal of Russia’s socio-economic development, and birth rate is a fundamental factor affecting the long-term demographic trends of both countries. In a report at the XX National Congress of the Communist Party of China, it was proposed to “optimize the population development strategy, create a policy system to support family planning and reduce family costs for childbearing, upbringing and education of children; these areas are highlighted as the main postulates in the concept of building a “Healthy China”. In Russia, the importance of preserving people, caring for the family, and strengthening traditional values is also recognized at the highest level. Support for the family, motherhood and childhood, and an increase in birth rate are defined in the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation. Presidential Decree 809, dated November 9, 2022, approved the key staples of Russian culture, including the family with children based on love and marriage. The aim of the work is to substantiate the need to strengthen the information and educational component of demographic policy regulating marital and family relations. We conducted a study using the methods of literature review, analysis of statistical data on the demographic development of provinces of Central China and federal districts of the Russian Federation, and also using the results of questionnaire surveys of Jiangxi Province and Vologda Oblast population. It was revealed that birth rate is low in almost all macro-regions of China and Russia; the number of women of reproductive age is decreasing; reproductive behavior is characterized by a focus on childlessness, marital behavior is characterized by postponement of marriage, blurring of social norms (traditions) of marriage. The decrease in birth rate occurs against the background of population aging, ensuring a further increase in the proportion of older people. The formation of a new “culture of marriage and childbearing” is a long-term project that will contribute to changing marital behavior and will require promoting family planning policy and strengthening state support in this area, forming a harmonious and friendly social environment, promoting ideas of strong marriage and childbearing.
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Socio-economic vulnerability of regional communities: sociological interpretation and assessment
Статья научная
The relevance of the study of the socio-economic vulnerability of Russian regions is due to the need to reveal their internal characteristics, indicating unresolved and emerging social problems that weaken the possibilities of regions functioning and productive dynamics. The aim of the work is to clarify the concept of socio-economic vulnerability of the regional community; to define the possibilities of its sociological measurement based on a combination of objective and subjective data; to identify significant characteristics of vulnerability of region socio-economic sphere in contemporary conditions by the example of the regions of the Central Chernozem region. The originality of its formulation and solution is associated with the interpretation of the this phenomenon through the prism of key social problems manifested in objective characteristics and subjective assessments of the population, the promotion of a methodic approach to its sociological diagnosis based on rethinking the heuristic capabilities of the methodic tools of the interregional scientific program, the assessment of important parameters of socio economic vulnerability of the Central Chernozem regions. The empirical object of research is the Central Chernozem regions of Russia - the Voronezh, Kursk and Lipetsk oblasts. The informational basis of research is the data of state statistics (Rosstat); the empirical base is the results of representative survey (N=1200 people) based on the typical program and methodic tools “Socio-cultural portrait of the Russian region”. The paper clarifies the concept of socio-economic vulnerability of regional community, understood as its condition due to the internal characteristics of the socio-economic sphere, concentrating social problems of an objective-subjective nature. It defines the possibilities of its diagnosis based on a combination of measuring objective facts and subjective assessments on a number of indicators of the typical methodic. It reveals the key vulnerabilities of the socio-economic sphere of the central chernozem regions in contemporary conditions: the prevalence of poverty and a high degree of socio-economic differentiation of the population in a subjective measurement; the downward short-term dynamics of the material status of a population significant part. The results expand the scientific understanding of the socio-economic vulnerability of regional communities and can be used to define their social problems of objective and subjective nature and to find ways to solve them.
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Статья научная
The relevance of the research is due to the fact that the phenomenon of reintegration of migrants returning from Russia to Kyrgyzstan has not been sufficiently studied. Little research has been done on the problems migrants face when reintegrating into the society of their country of origin; such problems include, for example, economic and social situation, the socio-psychological well-being ofmigrants and the level of reintegration. The aim of the study is sociological assessment of the sustainability of reintegration of migrants returning from Russia to Kyrgyzstan. Scientific novelty consists in the concretization of the term “reintegration” as a multidimensional process that allows migrants to restore the economic, social and psychosocial relationships necessary to move forward in life; and the term “sustainable reintegration”, as the returnees achieve a certain level of economic self-sufficiency, social stability and psychosocial weh-being; in the development of empirical indicators of sustainable reintegration, such as the ability of a returned migrant to provide for themselves and their family, participate in economic activities, housing, build strong social relationships and be involved in the local community, psychological well-being, the ability to use basic services, and the absence of migration plans after return. We provide a sociological assessment of the sustainability of reintegration of migrants returning from Russia to Kyrgyzstan, based on the results of a questionnaire survey of 515 return migrants, and focus group interviews with 37 return migrants in Kyrgyzstan in October - November 2022. It has been revealed that the reintegration of return migrants from Russia to Kyrgyzstan is quite sustainable in all spheres: economic, social and sociopsychological. At the same time, the returnees have certain problems reflected in the insufficiently high level ofjustification of expectations from the return and in possible intentions to migrate again to Russia or other countries.
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Specifics of Russians’ perception of housing conditions and housing inequality: dynamics and factors
Статья научная
The paper analyzes the dynamics and specifics of Russians’ perception of their housing conditions, housing inequality, as well as assessments of the overall housing situation in the country. Based on the data of all-Russian representative studies conducted by the Institute of Sociology FCTAS RAS using face-to-face method in the framework of door-to-door surveys, it is shown that for most Russians housing inequality today is more related to the problem of housing quantity and quality, rather than housing availability. In this regard, housing inequality remains a critical issue, and its severity varies for different groups. Key factors determining the specifics of subjective assessments of housing conditions and the acuteness of housing inequality in modern conditions are the stage of a person’s life and their resource base, which includes not only income, but also intangible characteristics related to employment, education and the number of problems an individual has to deal with. It is shown that the greatest match between housing conditions and related subjective demands is recorded in the most prosperous groups, and the greatest mismatch, respectively, in relatively disadvantaged ones. Attention is focused on a very limited list of tools used by Russians to improve housing conditions, the most common of which is the purchase of housing, and the high relevance of settlement inequalities in this context. Although most Russians approve of the state housing policy, it is highly focused on addressing housing issues, but does not fully take into account inequality in the quality of housing conditions.
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Specifics of reproductive behavior of female residents of Moscow
Статья научная
Birth rate dynamics in Russia’s population remains one of the major objects of attention of demographic science and politics. In 2019, the aggregate birth rate in Moscow exceeded the Russian average, giving rise to assumptions about the likelihood of the emergence of a new trend, despite the fact that studies of reproductive behavior of city dwellers indicate the prevalence of intentions to have fewer children. The article presents estimates of birth rates in metropolitan megacities of Russia, indicating that the values of indicators are still lower than the Russian average and even lower than the same indicators for Russia’s urban population. According to the data of an up-to-date survey of female Moscow residents, we find the prevalence of intentions to have fewer children and postpone childbirth. Significant factors influencing the intentions of female Moscow residents to have children are marital behavior, level of education, standard of living and value orientations. Birth rates in female Moscow residents with higher education in real generations are slightly lower than the Russian average. A slightly less pronounced inclination toward getting married in a civil ceremony also has a significant determinant role. The impact of income level cannot be assessed unambiguously. Indeed, in groups of women with relatively lower welfare, fertility rates are higher, but this is due to the ratio of satisfaction with the standard of living and the importance of children (the need for children). A higher level of income (and satisfaction with it) contributes to the realization of reproductive intentions. Female Moscow residents tend to have fewer children since such an attitude is passed down from previous generations; besides, among them, there is a higher proportion of those focused on individual values, which also determines a lower birth rate in a metropolitan megacity. Taking into account birth rate trends and the peculiarities of reproductive behavior of female Moscow residents can contribute to improving the effectiveness of demographic policy.
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Students’ digital literacy: competence-based approach
Статья научная
Currently, digital technology has a significant impact on socio-economic development in various societal spheres. In this regard, the importance of the formation of digital competencies in student youth is increasing. Modern generation should have these competences in order to work effectively and use the digital environment safely. The article presents an overview and systematization of scientific concepts that reveal the content of digital literacy. We show how the scientific category “digital literacy” correlates with “digital competence”. Concrete facts have confirmed that the use of digital technology in education involves the formation of digital competencies, the importance of which is beyond doubt, as well as the fact that digital literacy promotes the development of skills in search, analysis, critical understanding of the information received; it also helps to use digital platforms and network technology competently and in compliance with the basics of security in the digital environment. In this regard, the purpose of our research is to identify the level of formation of digital competencies in students in the higher education system (on the example of the Chelyabinsk Oblast). Scientific novelty of the work lies in theoretical substantiation of the content of digital literacy and systematization of approaches using a competencebased approach. In this context, the results of a survey of students of four universities in Chelyabinsk, aimed at identifying regional features and problems of the formation of digital competencies in the higher education system, are of interest. The findings of our research can become an important methodological tool in determining risk groups by the level of formation of digital competencies in students, developing methods for the safe use of digital content, preventing the spread of destructive online practices among young people and promoting their safe use of digital content.
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Sustainability of digital and non-digital forms of employment: comparative assessments
Статья научная
Modern theoretical and practical views on the impact of digitalization on welfare and quality of working life are controversial and fragmentary. The effectiveness of the application of digital social and labor relations is considered in scientific publications, as a rule, outside the context of sustainability. The aim of the work is to identify differences between digital and non-digital employment according to the criteria of sustainability in the context of standard and non-standard forms of social and labor relations. Key tasks are to develop our own methodology for assessing the sustainability of employment forms; carry out comparative and rating assessment of the sustainability of digital and non-digital forms of employment based on objective and subjective indicators. Empirical basis includes the results of a nationwide survey of able-bodied population aged 20 to 59, N = 2,896 people, quota sample. Key controlled features are sex and type of residence area (region’s administrative center, city, rural settlement). All federal districts are covered with the exception of the Southern Federal District. We reveal that, according to most indicators, digital standard and non-standard forms of employment are more stable than non-digital forms, they occupy 1st and 2nd places in the final ranking. Digital standard employment is inferior to non-digital standard employment only in terms of the ratio of labor income to subsistence minimum. According to other objective indicators, digital employment demonstrates either significantly better working conditions or comparable social effectiveness. Digital non-standard employment is significantly more sustainable than non-digital non-standard employment in terms of the ratio of labor income to subsistence minimum, probability of a normal working week and possibility of voluntary choice of afterhours. The non-digital format is more stable in terms of legitimacy of labor relations and possibility of voluntary choice of underemployment. Subjective assessments of the effectiveness of employment formats among respondents in the digital segment are higher in all indicators of sustainability, especially in terms of job satisfaction and financial situation. A promising direction for future research les in conducting expert assessments of the significance of the proposed indicators for the development of an integrated index methodology for assessing employment sustainability.
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Sustainability strategies of socially oriented NPOs: grant support mechanism
Статья научная
The amount of grant support allocated by the state to the non-profit sector of social services is increasing annually; the number of social projects and the volume of their funding are growing as well. The state’s interest in the qualitative development of socially oriented non-profit organizations and expansion of the segment of their participation in social services is determined by the opportunities that non-profit organizations possess as new performers of social services, capable of introducing innovation in addressing social problems of citizens in need of support. In Russia, the Presidential Grants Foundation is the major grant operator that accumulates public funds and distributes them on a competitive basis among non-profit organizations. Its unique competitive system complies with modern standards for supporting project applications and supports socially oriented non-profit organizations in the process of implementing winner projects. The Foundation is also distinguished by a more significant amount of funds allocated to support grants in comparison with other grantmakers, including private foundations. The problem that determined the focus of the issues considered in the article is the contradiction between the significant amount of support provided to regional socially oriented non-profit organizations in the process of their formation as providers of social services, and the continuing low efficiency of these organizations. We investigate major strategies for raising funds by socially oriented non-profit organizations and show that their income portfolio consists mainly of the funding that comes from grant support, which is accompanied by risks of financial instability of organizations and an increasing dependence on grant funds as the main source of income. The empirical base of the study includes open source data and interviews with representatives of regional socially oriented non-profit organizations, resource centers and grantgivers (n = 27). Based on the analysis of interviews with the participants of the study, the article examines the possibilities of income diversification for non-profit organizations and the risks each strategic perspective may entail. We reveal the readiness of non-profit organizations to develop strategies aimed at attracting donor funding and income-generating activities. We also define conditions under which organizations are able to implement the discussed strategies in practice.
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Telemedicine in modern conditions: the attitude of society and the vector of development
Статья научная
The intensive development of information technology and the external challenges, primarily the coronavirus pandemic, have caused a revision of attitudes toward telemedicine. The article is devoted to the study of problems concerning the development of Russian telemedicine, analysis of existing trends and the possibilities of its application, taking into account the development of communication technology and the legal field. Research on this issue is connected, on the one hand, with analyzing modern capabilities of telemedicine technologies and the need for their application in connection with the complex epidemiological situation in a number of Russia’s regions, on the other hand, with the assessment of the level of trust in telemedicine on the part of end users: who, how, when and where can use telemedicine services. The object of our research is telemedicine technology, the subject is the dynamics of perception of new forms of medical services by Russian society. We use a classical approach to studying the problems under consideration: at the first stage, we conduct a comprehensive desk study and analyze secondary information; at the second stage, we collect primary data: on the basis of the developed tools, we conduct an exploratory study of the attitude of Russian society toward telemedicine. The uniqueness and novelty of our findings are due to the comparison of the data concerning the attitude of Russians toward telemedicine, obtained before the outbreak of the pandemic, with the data obtained at the stage of a significant reduction in the incidence of COVID-19 in regions that have become “pilot” ones in the use of telemedicine technologies in primary care in the midst of the epidemic. During data collection and analysis, we applied statistical, mathematical and sociological methods, including content analysis to study legal issues of the possibility of using telemedicine technologies. The study has revealed the main reasons for Russians’ distrust of telemedicine, as well as possible ways and areas of its application in the future to provide medical care to the population. The results obtained can be used to study the application of telemedicine in Russia in the system of training and retraining of medical personnel, as well as by health care organizers, lawyers and other specialists who deal with the application of telemedicine technologies, including at the level of legislative and executive authorities.
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Статья научная
National priorities in the development of Russian society in the field of demography are related to population reproduction, health preservation, decrease in working-age mortality, increase in life expectancy, etc., and also correlate strategically with the effective functioning of business. This brings to the fore the need to develop, implement and elaborate on corporate social policy in general and corporate demographic policy in particular. The aim of the study is to analyze social policy pursued by major Russian corporations (PAO Severstal, Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel Works PJSC, Gazprom Neft PJSC, PJSC Lukoil, JSC Russian Railways, PJSC PhosAgro, PJSC Acron) and substantiate the concept for corporate demographic policy of enterprises. We consider prerequisites for the establishment and implementation of corporate demographic policy in Russian society. We have found that at the present stage of its development, corporate social responsibility is most often reduced to cash payments and participation of enterprises in individual social projects. The article analyzes social policy practices that Russian companies are implementing and that are directly related to demographic issues (childcare allowances, employee benefits, health resort treatment, etc.). We look into the approaches to understanding corporate demographic policy and its effectiveness; we show the benefits of implementing corporate demographic policy at Russian enterprises. Such benefits include promotion of business reputation, reduction in social tension, participation of enterprises in addressing demographic development issues, etc. According to some studies, the introduction of corporate health promotion programs can reduce disability losses from a number of causes by almost 30%. The practical significance and scientific novelty of our research consists in the development of a concept for corporate demographic policy of Russian enterprises, definition of its targets, implementation mechanisms and substantiation of the expected results, which consist in enhancing the effectiveness of state demographic policy as a whole and improving the results of implementation of corporate programs.
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The age factor in the digital divide: the edges of inequality
Статья научная
At the end of the 1990s - beginning of the 2000s, due to the spread of the Internet at an increasing rate in certain countries, while others were lagging behind, it became necessary to study the digital gap issues. At the present stage, when the existence of the digital divide in the world and individual states is obvious and proven, researchers have focused on studying its factors. The article aims to assess the influence of the age factor on the scale and prevalence of the digital divide within a three-level model. To do this, we consider theoretical and methodological approaches to studying the age factor of the digital divide; we analyze trends in the use of information and communication technologies by representatives of various age groups, and the inclusion of children, adolescents and the elderly in the digital environment. The model of three levels of the digital divide developed by modern scientists is used as a theoretical basis. According to the model, inequality manifests itself in access to technical means, differences in the digital literacy, and the benefits derived from digitalization. In the course of the work, we use a set of general scientific methods. We reveal significant differences in the practices of using personal computers and the Internet among representatives of different age groups and calculate the time periods necessary to reduce intergenerational gaps in Russia and the Vologda Oblast. We assess the impact of online habits on a person’s life, the purposes of using the Internet and the possibility of receiving bonuses from it, the availability of digital skills for various age groups of Vologda Oblast population. The scientific novelty of the study consists in assessing the influence of the age factor on the prevalence of digital gap parameters at the regional level. The results can be used for identifying the groups that are at risk of being excluded from the processes of digital development. The findings will be also useful in formulating the relevance of social retraining programs for the able-bodied population in accordance with the requirements of new jobs, in teaching older people digital skills, and in making managerial decisions for successful digital development.
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Статья научная
The need to integrate volunteering into national strategies for achieving sustainable development goals, and the importance of its role in curbing the implications of crisis processes caused by the coronavirus pandemic have intensified the scientific search for barriers to civic participation in volunteering and mechanisms for eliminating them. At the same time, researchers focus on identifying barriers of a certain type on the example of one country or group of countries, and, when searching for ways to eliminate those barriers, they underestimate the role of national culture. The purpose of our study is to systematize barriers and promising technologies for intensifying the diffusion of volunteering among the population and to identify major features of national culture in this process. Barriers to the diffusion of volunteer activity in society are systematized into three groups: barriers on the part of the state, barriers on the part of the non-profit sector, and barriers on the part of the individual. We show national features of their formation, which proceed from the specifics of emergence and evolution of volunteerism in the course of socioeconomic development. Using the postulates of institutional economic theory, we identify a system of institutions that intensify the diffusion of volunteering in society, including institutions for the promotion of volunteer practices, institutions for the development of civil society, institutions for the development of horizontal ties through network mechanisms for the diffusion of norms of civic participation, institutions for improving the reputation of volunteering among the population, the institute of volunteer education, institutions for increasing the motivation of participation in volunteering. On the basis of econometric analysis, we have determined that the cultural dimensions highlighted by G. Hofstede, such as the level of individualism, femininity and tolerance, have a significant impact on the extent of development of volunteering in the country. Taking into account the identified cultural features and effective technologies that promote residents’ engagement in volunteer activities, we determine directions for intensification of this process in Russia. Development of a comprehensive system of institutions for the diffusion of volunteering in our country will be a promising area for our future research.
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The impact of employment barriers on the employment characteristics of persons with disabilities
Статья научная
Disability is a complex phenomenon that generates a number of negative socio-economic consequences including working-age population decrease. At the same time, disability is not always accompanied by a complete loss of the ability to work. Usually, persons with disabilities of the second and third groups retain the opportunity to work in the presence of suitable conditions, but in practice the realization of their labor potential is limited by a number of circumstances. The purpose of this work is to substantiate the negative impact of barriers to employment of disabled people on the characteristics of their employment. Based on the statistical data analysis, we have shown a modern socio-demographic portrait of working disabled people, and analyzed the characteristics of their employment and economic activity. We have found that for a long period the highest economic activity was shown by persons with the third disability group. The paper proves that their higher representation in the composition of employed persons with disabilities is due, on the one hand, to less pronounced health disorders and relatively low need to create specialized jobs, and on the other hand, has economic prerequisites. We have shown that the realization of the labor potential of disabled people is not always accompanied by a significant increase in their material well-being. Employment for some disabled people may be a forced step, which confirms the prevalence among them of employment not in their specialty, as well as on the basis of an oral agreement, without official employment. The final part of the article outlines recommendations that can contribute to the fuller realization of the labor potential of disabled people and improve their financial situation.
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Статья научная
The relevance of the research topic is due to the growing impact of precarity on the quality of employment and standard of living among generational groups of economically active population. The opportunities and threats of current employment associated with standard of living may be manifested differently in these generational groups, especially among representatives of the middle generation. Information base of the study is compiled on basis of representative data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey of HSE (RLMS-HSE) for 2021. A sample has formed among employed and unemployed people of the middle generation in age from 36 years up to retirement age. The results obtained denote that the presence of a high level of education and specialized ICT skills enables qualified representatives of the middle generation to ensure sustainable employment and minimize precarity risks. In general, a higher level of ICT skills increases the possibilities of the middle generation to apply their present labor capacities in the labor market. It was discovered that precarious employment is found not only in poor population. It is common among all social groups according to living standards, while it is most evident among low-income households of middle generation workers with per capita incomes of 1-2 subsistence minimums. Taking into account the position of middle-generation people in employment, their qualification and educational characteristics, as well as level of ICT skills, this research has produced some recommendations, which will contribute to neutralize precarity threats and implement professional potential of middle-generation workers in order to enhance living standards of their households.
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The impact of precarization on the standard of living and employment situation of Russian youth
Статья научная
The study of precarization implications focuses on young people who are facing serious problems on the way to stable employment. The lack of clear competitive advantages in the labor market complicates employment in the formal sector of the economy, where workers have access to an extensive system of social guarantees. In this regard, young people often feel vulnerable and uncertain about their future. Despite the relevance of the problem and wide discussion, there are not many specific empirical studies in this area. The aim of the paper is to determine the impact of precarization on the standard of living and the employment situation of young people. The information base is represented by the data of the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey conducted by the Higher School of Economics for 2021 (30th round). Based on the original toolkit, the scale of precarious work was estimated depending on the concentration of precarization indicators and taking into account individual parameters of respondents. The indicators were calculated using the method of multivariate frequency distribution of attributes. According to the results obtained, the overwhelming majority (almost 80%) of young people are involved in precarious work. To a much lesser extent, this applies to the part of youth that has a high level of education, ICT skills and is engaged in skilled labor. The depth of precarization penetration is also closely linked to per capita income. As its size increases up to two subsistence minimums, the share of those involved in precarious work decreases significantly; and in this regard it does not matter what part of income is used for consumption. In conclusion, we substantiate proposals to counter the threats of precarization for young people. Prospects for further research are connected, first of all, with the identification of educational and professional trajectories that have a negative impact on employment stability.
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The impact of the pandemic on demographic processes in the Russian Arctic
Статья научная
Russia has achieved a high level of Internet connectivity and the use of digital technologies; this helps to accumulate and systematize huge amounts of population data. Modern challenges, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, require a more prompt and detailed analysis of the demographic situation. Understanding the information collected by digital platforms and services can improve the quality of decision-making and be widely used in science and management. The aim of our study is to assess the change in the demographic situation in the Russian Arctic under the influence of the pandemic, with the use of new sources of population data that have emerged as a result of digitalization of the economy and public life. The article proposes an outline for the formation of a demographic knowledge base by combining traditional population statistics with data from digital platforms. We consider advantages and disadvantages of new data sources, features and examples of their application. We provide a detailed description of demographic processes in the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation in 2020-2021 with the use of municipal statistics, data from Yandex online platforms and international pandemic databases. With the help of the proposed outline, we consider the dynamics of morbidity, mortality and vaccination against coronavirus infection. We study the reaction of the population of the Russian Arctic to the pandemic by analyzing the structure of search queries and the intensity of movement in city streets. We reveal the specifics of the spread of COVID-19 in the Arctic and estimate the impact of the pandemic on the natural population change and human mobility in the Arctic Zone. We calculate excess mortality at the regional and municipal levels. Based on the vaccination rates, we draw conclusions about the prospects for further development of the pandemic. The results obtained can be used for development of socio-demographic policy measures and construction of demographic forecasts for the Northern and Arctic territories.
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The importance of research on reproductive intentions for fertility forecasting
Статья научная
In the context of depopulation and demographic aging, the importance of forecasting population dynamics is increasing. Due to the high behavioral determinism of fertility, special attention should be paid to reproductive intentions, since they play an essential role in shaping birth rate, which in turn determines population reproduction by more than 90%. Research on reproductive behavior is carried out at both the federal and regional levels, which indicates that the array of data on reproductive intentions and their implementation has been accumulated. The aim of the work is to assess the possibility of using data on reproductive intentions in forecasting fertility. Based on the data from a reproductive plans survey carried out by Rosstat, we assess the prospects for using the empirical indicator "expected number of children", modifying it to "expected number of more children" if the parents already have children, in comparison with the number of children born during the period in question in real generations of women born in 1970–1994. The findings of the research indicate a fairly high stability of the gap between the expected and actual number of children, which suggests the possibility of using information about reproductive intentions in order to predict fertility. We reveal that for the generations who completed fertility the mentioned difference was 0.19, for women of the last fifteen (out of 35) years of fertility – 0.3. For women under 35, the gap is more significant – 0.72. We substantiate the possibility of using data on reproductive intentions to predict births of various order, which is especially important when planning the total fertility rate and the proportion of large families. The results obtained expand methodological foundations for forecasting fertility, which is of practical importance for improving the effectiveness of family and demographic policy in Russia.
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