Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1587
Financial behavior of the population during the 2014-2015 economic crisis
Статья научная
The article considers the changes in people’s financial behavior that occurred under the influence of the “structural recession” of the Russian economy. Any changes in the economic behavior of the population in the context of its individual types are caused by transformations taking place in society, proceed from people’s adaptation to new conditions and affect the duration and consequences of crisis processes. The goal of our study is to identify changes in people’s financial behavior caused by the economic crisis of 2014-2015. The paper uses official statistical data and materials of national and regional sociological surveys. We analyze manifestations of the 2014-2015 crisis, such as the changes in the level and use of monetary incomes, bank deposits and loan debt of the population. On the basis of regional sociological studies we reveal the changes in people’s financial behavior. We find out that during the crisis processes the growth rates of bank deposits and loan debt decreased, the structure of savings and credit purposes changed, and the violations in the regularity of loan payments became more frequent. In particular, at the regional level (in the Vologda Oblast), the share of inhabitants with savings has decreased significantly, the share of those who are saving money to use when they retire and the share of car loans have decreased; the share of savings for improving housing conditions, for recreation and travel, as well as the share of loans for urgent needs and unforeseen expenses have increased; the number of cases of overdue monthly payments on loans has increased. At the same time, some components of financial behavior turned out to be insensitive to the changing economic situation, among them - the reasons for refusal to form savings, the most common forms of accumulation, and the criteria for choosing a bank. We conclude that there are no mass deviant practices in the financial behavior of the population of the region in the crisis period; in general, people adapt to the changes that take place in the socio-economic situation. We recommend using the results of the monitoring studies of financial and other types of economic behavior in the activities of regional authorities in order to obtain timely information on current changes and make adequate management decisions.
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Статья научная
Power consumption causes economic development and becomes the main pollution source, including air pollution. Power consumption appreciably responds to the economic fluctuation. Different historic crises’ gravity and abrupt economic recession show up in power consumption and hotbed gases’ emission. In this article the analysis of the relations among the financial crisis, economic development, power-saving and the emission’s reduction has been carried out and it shows that the financial crisis will inevitably lead to the power consumption’s reduction and to the emission’s reduction. But the crisis is a short term phenomenon, and the economic growth takes time. As in any developing country, in China the pressure of the reduction of hotbed gases’ emission is intensifying. As for power-saving and emission’s reduction, t is necessary to discuss these phenomena in details; and it is also necessary to develop the low-carbon way, not to ignore it
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Financial instability in the region: assessment methods and elimination tools
Статья научная
Financial instability is one of the most important factors in the level and sustainability of socio-economic development of territories. However, at present, from the viewpoint of methodology, this concept is developed insufficiently in relation to the elimination and forecasting of economic and financial crisis threats. This problem is especially acute at the regional level. For its solution the article proposes a methodology for assessing the risks of financial instability; it helps to determine the indicators of the current state and development of regional finances that are most liable to volatility in the context of the main institutional sectors (government, business, households); the methodology also helps to forecast the probable maximum change in the indicators in the future with the use of the VaR methodology. The calculations carried out according to the proposed methodology on the example of the Republic of Bashkortostan show that regional finances are most vulnerable to fiscal risk. As a tool to eliminate budget risk the authors give several suggestions on improving the efficiency of interbudgetary transfers that make it possible to increase the degree of financial autonomy of the regions and to act as an effective incentive to their innovation development.
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Financial possibilities for providing expenditure obligations of local self-government
Статья научная
The article assesses financial provision of expenditure obligations of local self-government. Problems requiring urgent solutions and including decrease of financial autonomy of municipalities and increasing their dependency on decisions and financial support from upper level budgets are revealed.
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Financial provision of investment processes in the regions of the North-West federal district
Статья научная
The presence of various potentialities in achieving economic growth and stirring up investment processes at the regional level is complicated by spatial inequality of financial resources distribution. This study has revealed epy specificity of forming fixed capital financing structure influencing the differentiation level in economic development of regions. Solution of the problem requires improvement of the financial system functioning. Information basis of the study includes statistical collections, published by the Federal statistic service. Methods of statistical analysis are used for the results substantiation.
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Financial results of the local self-government reform. Experience of the regions of the Far East
Статья научная
The article examines the problems and main results of the 30-year reform of local selfgovernment, concerning the positioning of the institution of LSG in the “vertical of power”, the definition of the structure of powers and rights, and the formation of the financial base of LSG. The purpose of the work is to determine the basic principles and features of the development of the LSG institute and its financial interaction with the state on the example of municipalities of a large macro-region, which is the Russian Far East. In order to identify statistical patterns, general scientific methods were used based on official data from the Federal Treasury of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Finance, Rosstat, regional authorities and local authorities of the Far Eastern constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The analysis of the dynamics of changes in the spatial classification of municipalities of the Far East over the years of reform, as well as the state and conditions for the formation of budgets of municipal districts and urban districts of the Far Eastern constituent entities of the Federation for 2011-2019 is carried out. It is shown that in the Far East the situation with the financial security of local self-government is determined not so much by local or Far Eastern, as by all-Russian tendencies. Revealed the presence of a serious stagnation of revenues and expenditure of the municipalities of the Far East; the prevalence of low financial independence of the budgets of the civil society and, especially, of the municipal districts; a decrease in the possibility of free disposal of budgetary resources for municipalities of the Far East, since during the analyzed period the share of grants-in-aid in the revenues of the budgets of municipal districts decreased by 8.6 percentage points, up to 15.9%, and in the revenues of urban districts - to 1.8%, with an increasing share of subventions and subsidies in budget revenues. In general, over the years of reform, the legislative strengthening of the powers and rights of LSG, declared at the federal level, has not received adequate financial support in the region. Proposals for improving the financial component of the LSG reform in the framework of the evolutionary approach have been substantiated. It is shown that constitutional changes, while remaining formally neutral to LSGs, will require clarification of federal legislation for their implementation, which can give rise to a number of latent threats and undermine the principle of organizational isolation and financial independence of LSG bodies. The novelty of the research task is actualized by considering the aforementioned range of issues in comparison of federal trends and the situation in the macroregion under the conditions of changes in the Constitution of the Russian Federation and an increasing understanding of the need to strengthen the financial base of LSG. The materials of the article can be used in the educational sphere and in the activities of public authorities and LSG.
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Financial situation in regional energy supply
Статья научная
It is important to monitor the financial condition of energy supply organizations in regional management and development of energy infrastructure. This condition depends on economic factors, tariff regulation and budget subsidies. The article presents indicators of aggregated financial statistics on energy supply in the regions of Russia's European North. For the purpose of comparative analysis, the author formed a comprehensive indicator of financial stability and evaluated trends in the dynamics of past due debt and profitability. The analysis shows the following sectoral and regional characteristics: the financial situation in the electric power sector is relatively stable, but it is unsatisfactory in heat supply; the increase in negative trends, such as the decrease in repayment ability, low and negative profitability, and the accumulation of considerable arrears. Financial instability becomes a system-wide characteristic of heat supply. It is necessary to introduce a multi-step process of financial recovery of the industry as a whole...
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Financial tools to develop social entrepreneurship
Статья научная
Social entrepreneurship, being a relatively new activity for the Russian economy, requires the development of conditions and support mechanisms; this helps address social issues in society and also stimulates civic activity in this regard. Our paper classifies financial tools according to types of investors with different financial requirements, and analyzes the availability of these tools for the development of social entrepreneurship. We place special emphasis on mezzanine financing, social impact bonds, impact investing, and hybrid financing. In order to determine the availability of financial tools that are used to develop social entrepreneurship in Russia, we analyze financial statements of social entrepreneurs included in the catalog, formed by the Fund “Our Future”. The analysis used the coefficients of autonomy, current liquidity, profit (EBIT) and its growth rate in 2017. We have revealed that only nine of the considered organizations, which is less than 22%, meet the stated requirements and can apply for loans. Thus, we show that it is necessary to develop investment tools with lower financial requirements. Theoretical importance of our research findings consists in the fact that they expand theoretical and methodological provisions for studying social entrepreneurship in terms of systematization of financial tools used in international practice. The findings of our research are relevant in the practical aspect as well, because they help identify low availability of financial tools used in the Russian practice. The obtained data can be used to elaborate a strategy for development of this type of activity at different levels of management.
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Financial well-being of older adults: theoretical and methodological aspects and assessment issues
Статья научная
The tasks to promote active ageing and a prosperous old age, laid down in Russia’s program and strategic documents (federal project “The Older Generation”, “Strategy of Actions in the Interests of Citizens of the Older Generation in the Russian Federation until 2025”, etc.), can be addressed effectively only if financial well-being has been achieved. The aim of the study is to reveal theoretical and methodological foundations of the financial well-being of older adults, reflected in foreign and domestic scientific discourse. The article presents a theoretical and methodological framework for the financial well-being of older adults, and provides its preliminary assessment in the case of older adults in the conditions of Russian reality. As a result of a critical analysis of the scientific literature, we show that the concept “financial well-being” is commonly used in foreign scientific discourse, but it is not widespread in Russian research. We highlight general aspects of financial well-being: good current financial situation; financial stability in relation to shocks; confidence in the security of the future. We put forward a set of indicators to assess the financial well-being of older adults based on data from the All-Russian Survey of Consumer Finance - 2022 (a survey conducted by the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation and the Bank of Russia). We apply sociological analysis methods (descriptive analysis, frequency distribution analysis using combination tables). It is revealed that older adults feel more prepared for possible financial shocks, which is facilitated by the orientation toward savings practices and low credit activity. We identify the following sore spots: older adults are more concerned about the likelihood of money shortage, and they also do not feel confident in the sufficient financial security of their future. At the end of the article, we outline promising areas for research.
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Статья научная
Considering the problem of finding ways of significant life changes for the better as fundamental, the author focuses on the research subjects. He compares the guidelines of two important discourses: “Where is Russia going?..” and “Modernization of the Russian economy”, as well as the nature of their dialogue with the federal authorities. Using the results of these comparisons and based on summarizing diagnose assessments of the state of the Russian society produced by Russian scientists in 2017, the author proposes a methodology for a qualitatively new content of respondents’ surveys: it is important not to be limited by finding out the opinions about population’s pressing issues, but to identify the population’s preferences about significant life changes for the better. For this purpose, the author proposes an algorithm of successive stages of surveys. Being aware of the complex objectives and debatable proposals, the author considers it appropriate to announce a competition for best proposals to identify significant life changes for the better preferred by the population.
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Fiscal federalism and inter-budget relations in the Russian Federation
Статья научная
The article deals with the essence of fiscal federalism and its model in the world. Characterized by features inter-budget relations in Russia, their forms and methods of implementation. Represents an acting mechanism of formation and management of income and expenditure budgets of various levels and their relationship. Particularly detailed analysis of the problem of budgetary provision of local budgets, the ways of solving them. It is proved that the basis for the rationalization of inter-budget relations and real fiscal federalism is the progressive development of its economy, increase their own taxable capacity. The successful solution of problems of fiscal federalism, the author believes, depends largely on preserving the integrity of the Russian state, increasing its credibility in the international arena.
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Fish industry of the Murmansk oblast in the system of the regional economic safety
Статья научная
The value of the fish industry of the European North of the Russian Federation in the system of food and economic safety of the region and the country is considered. The structure and the condition of the fishing fleet, fishery economic efficiency, and the potential factors of the development (the raw base, the technical policy, normative legal provisioning) are analyzed. The directions of the increase of the efficiency of the regional fish industry’s functioning are proved.
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Fishery complex in the system of Russia's food security
Статья научная
Theoretical aspects of food safety and role of fish industry in food safety security are considered. Causes of small fish products sales domestically produced on Russian market are examined. Factors which keep back the fish products consumption are estimated.
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Focus on finances as a factor of Russia's national vulnerability in the 21st century
Статья научная
The research, presented in the current article, is a logical continuation of a previous “Editorial” article, which was about the soullessness of the ruling elites, analysis of its reasons and consequences. This article focuses on common global consequences of liberal capitalistic ideology actively implemented by the ruling elites. The authors explore its historic purpose and tools, use the facts, and analyze results shown in specific changes of social assessments and attitudes. In the context of a comparative analysis of dynamics of public opinion in the key countries of Western Europe, we describe the trends of subjective assessments of the population in the Russian Federation. The authors conclude that many negative consequences of the purposeful policy of global elites (in particular, ones related to the destruction of the system of traditional values and norms) exist in Russia, which requires increased attention and active state policy in matters related to the development of ideology and overcoming the soullessness of the ruling elites as a natural attribute of the historical period of postmodernity. The study is based on respected international sources of official statistical information (World Bank) and sociological measurements (European Social Survey, Edeleman Trust Barometer), as well as on the results of Russian and regional public opinion polls.
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Статья научная
The article is devoted to the topical issues of trade and economic integration of the Northwestern Federal District of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. It studies the trends in the development of trade and economic activity in their regions. The article describes the mathematical tool of gravity modelling of the trade and economic cooperation, approved by the materials of statistical reporting of NWFD regions and the Republic of Belarus. A forecast of development of trade and economic activity in these regions has been elaborated.
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Forecasting of indicators of the region's socio-economic development
Статья научная
The article analyses the statistical data on the volumes of investment in different spheres of the socio-economic system of the Udmurt Republic in the 1996-2010 period. The values of production and human capitals are predicted for the next five years with regard to the forecasting of the dynamics of investment volume based on economic and mathematical models. The article resolves the task of modeling dynamics of the gross regional product in the Udmurt Republic by applying production function constructed on the basis of statistical methods of correlation and regression analysis, and the issue concerning the forecasting of the dynamics of production and human capitals.
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Forecasting the dissemination of norms and values in Russia with the use of an agent-based approach
Статья научная
The paper presents an agent-based model for dissemination of norms and values and the experience of its use for forecasting the dynamics of opinions in Russian society, taking into account the influence of digital media and deterioration of the economic situation in the country. The chosen modeling method helps to predict the dynamics of population, economy and political system, taking into account their mutual influence. Each agent is assigned an appropriate set of norms and values and a model is designed showing how they change under the influence of the agent’s standard of living, communication with acquaintances and impact of the media. The model we present differs from its known analogues due to its connection with the model of artificial society, reflecting the population and economy of Russia on the basis of current data. The behavior of agents in the model is based on the concept of a social agent, which includes the principles of dividing agents into clusters of social activity, a way to represent the norms and values of the agent in the form of a set of options with varying frequency and the function of constructing subjective assessments of the standard of living based on the comparison of the agent with its environment. Information content of the model is based on the analysis of the results of the seventh wave of the World Values Survey concerning the relationship between the income level, assessment of the work of the political system and the norms of social responsibility, which showed a significant degree of correlation between incomes, political assessments and the norms of residents. On the basis of the developed model, we carried out scenario calculations so as to build a forecast of the likely dynamics of public sentiment in various economic conditions. The results obtained indicate a rather significant relationship between the economic situation and the satisfaction of residents with the actions of the government. In the developed model, the change in a person’s beliefs is limited to their inner world; therefore, implementing new aspirations in attempts to change one’s own life or society is an important direction for future research.
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Forecasting the effects of raising the retirement age on Russia's demographic structure
Статья научная
The paper assesses the possibility of raising the retirement age to mitigate the effects of ageing on the pension system of Russia. The authors make demographic forecasts based on hypotheses about the presence of global demographic trends in population reproduction and manifestations of development features specific for Russia. The demographic forecast is based on the age shifting method according to three scenarios. The forecast takes into account the provisions of a draft law that has already been approved and that provides for a gradual increase in age limit for civil servants, both men and women, to 65 years (by six months each year). The following assumption is made for the purpose of studying the effects of raising the retirement age to 65 years for all categories of Russian citizens. The increase in the retirement age begins in 2016 at the rate of 6 months per year, and it will end for men in 2026 and for women - in 2036. Thus, by 2036, the official retirement age will be 65 years for both sexes...
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Статья научная
The article investigates uneven spatial development of livestock industry in Russia’s regions. It is caused by many factors, including the volume of attracted investments, human resources; and it endangers the food security of territories. The purpose of the study is to assess spatial heterogeneity in the development of the livestock industry in the Sverdlovsk Oblast. To achieve the goal, we set the following tasks: to conduct a spatial autocorrelation analysis of the development of the livestock industry in Sverdlovsk Oblast municipal entities, investigate the impact of human resources investments and costs on the development of spatial heterogeneity in the region’s livestock industry, assess the spatial effects of livestock industry development in territorial systems, design forecast scenarios for its development in the region’s municipal entities up to 2025. Having reviewed theoretical and methodological approaches to assessing spatial heterogeneity at the regional and municipal levels we find out that Russian and foreign researchers use a variety of methods. Their application does not contribute to the comprehensive assessment of spatial heterogeneity in the development of the livestock industry. To solve the problem, we propose a methodological approach, whose novelty consists in the comprehensive application of spatial autocorrelation analysis methods using various matrices of spatial weights, regression analysis using panel data and ARIMA modeling which, when combined, make it possible to determine the impact of investments and other factors on heterogeneity in the development of the livestock industry in the region’s municipalities and design a system of various forecast scenarios. The regression models we constructed have confirmed the differentiated impact of investments and human resources on spatial heterogeneity in the livestock sector in the Sverdlovsk Oblast and outlined the prospects for its development.
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Foreign direct investment in the economy of the Russian Far East
Статья научная
The article considers the trends and patterns of foreign direct investment in the Russian economy in the context of mega-regions, the features of attracting and spatial distribution of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the regions of the Far East. The purpose for the study is to assess the economic effects generated by foreign investment in the Far East. The hypothesis is the assumption that attracting foreign investment in the region is to a greater extent a tool to maximize the economy of scale, rather than eliminating financial imbalances. The initial data of the study are statistical materials of the Central Bank, as well as macroeconomic indicators published by federal and regional statistical agencies. The methodological framework of the study is the concept of modern general theory of foreign direct investment, in particular the concept of spatial distribution of foreign investment. The article presents the assessment results of spatial performance and modification of the spatial-sectoral structure of foreign investment in the Far East, and the macroeconomic effects of their application...
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