Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1587
About the role of input-output balance in government regulation of the economy
Статья научная
March 30, 2017, a notable event took place in Russia: the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) published the basic input-output balance (IOB) for the national economy for 2011 and the tables that show the resources and utilization of products for 2012-2014. Economists have been waiting for this event for more than 20 years. The latest IOB was made in 1995. The present paper summarizes theoretical foundations of input-output balance and basic methodological approaches to its construction. It is shown that input-output balance is the basis for government regulation of the economy in industrialized countries. The paper evaluates the situation with the availability of necessary statistical information to build the “input - output” tables for the Russian economy. The author highlights possible areas, in which input-output balance can be used in government regulation of the economy. It is proved that input-output balance contains all the main macroeconomic indicators of the country (region) in its sectoral and national economic context...
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About the “learning organizations” and corporate education in the context of innovation
Статья научная
The current state-financed system of continuing professional education is often unable to catch up with the real needs of production and labor market in advanced training and professional retraining of staff. Corporate (internal) education is being developed as an alternative. It competes successfully with state educational systems, since it has a specific purpose - to train an employee for productive work specifically in his/her organization and for its benefit. Companies that are developing internal continuing education become “learning organizations” and gain obvious competitive advantages.
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Acceleration programs in the ecosystem of social entrepreneurship support
Статья научная
The development of social entrepreneurship in Russia belongs to the topical areas of state policy and is aimed at creating conditions for the formation of the social services market, the participants of which, along with government agencies and non-profit organizations, become social enterprises. Social accelerators are a new tool for their development that requires systemic understanding. The article reveals the role of acceleration programs in the emerging ecosystem of social entrepreneurship support institutions initiated by the state, shows their common and specific features. The empirical basis of the study was formed by the data posted on the websites of Russian foundations supporting social entrepreneurship. We consider the general scheme of acceleration programs of the Social Projects Support Fund, Social Investment Fund, The Foundation of regional social programs “Our Future” and RAISE University Accelerator (RANEPA), including an analysis of the basic events organized for the participants of accelerators. This article presents systematized data on such interrelated elements of social acceleration as training, mentoring, partner and client networking, local community of social entrepreneurs, direct and indirect funding, and information support. The programs we analyzed followed the same pattern. They include a set of segments, each with a specific function for the development of promising social enterprises. We have identified the problems of exaggerated selection criteria for the acceleration cycle, the lack of direct financing as an element of Russian acceleration programs, which reduces the potential for participation of interested target groups, and weak information support for existing programs. Thus, the results of this study contribute to the study of the strategic advantages and limitations of social acceleration.
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Accessibility and quality of medical service in the context of health care modernization
Статья научная
Assessment of access to health care is a complicated scientific and practical problem. The solution can not be limited to formal indicators of state and departmental statistics. Existing solely for the purpose to preserve the citizens’ health, the health care system must be based and reconstructed on the opinion of its customers, the territory’s residents who receive medical services under the state guarantees program. That is why, the necessary, if not the most important, component to assess the health care access is sociological data analysis. The Institute of Socio-Economic Development of Territories of the Russian Academy of Sciences has carried out the measurement and analysis of the Vologda Oblast population’s estimates of the access to medical services and its quality, provided by regional health institutions. This study is especially important because a number of reforms and the Program of Health Care Modernization have been implemented in the Russian health care over the last years. The authors have found out that the reforms improved the provision of the medical institutions with equipment, but the problem of staff shortage was not solved. What is more, the region’s residents are still concerned about ethics violations, medical workers’ rude behavior and difficulty to make an appointment at the doctor’s. These problems remain acute.
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Статья научная
One of the integral methods for assessing resource efficiency is the adjustment of net savings. It happens due to many indicators, including the assessment of specially protected natural territories. The author’s opinion is associated with the assessment of tourism activities at these sites and consideration of the value of regulating ecosystem territories’ services. The objectives of the study are the identification of approaches and assessment of protected areas; selection of “profitable” ecosystem services in regional protected areas; and submission of proposals for the effective usage of these territories. The calculation involves a combination of two methods: assessment of the gross value added of tourist destinations in protected areas and the value of regulatory ecosystem services. Tourism efficiency from the position of creating value chains destinations reflects the rate of gross value added, which is calculated as the difference between the proceeds from sales of tourist services entities and their material costs. To determine the economic value of regulatory services, the methods of market indirect assessment and compensation costs were used. During the calculation of ecosystem services, we selected those with beneficiaries located in the region. Increasing efficiency of facilities requires conditions for the development of recreation and new activities. These conditions are shown in the strengthening of interaction between administrations of protected areas with service companies that provide a quality factor of infrastructure, availability of facilities and food services. The economic contribution of specially protected natural areas from the usage of regulating ecosystem services and tourist and recreational activities amounted to 20.4 billion rubles, or 3.2% of gross regional product, in 2018. The proposed approach allows us to show the socio-economic and environmental contribution of specially protected natural areas to the economy of the Komi Republic.
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Accounting of multiplier effect as a required element in assessing the effects of social programs
Статья научная
The article substantiates the importance of taking into account indirect effects of the programs, projects, activities (mainly social) when deciding on the need to implement them. The problem of providing society with decent living conditions is studied. The article proves that in spite of some positive trends in the Russian construction market the issues of housing availability do not lose their significance. It notes that a variety of approaches to solving this problem have been developed, that is why it is critical to assess the effectiveness of each solution in order to choose the most suitable one. One of the tools for alleviating this problem - a program of housing construction savings - is discussed in detail; by means of the specially designed universal computational model we determine fiscal effectiveness of this program application in the Sverdlovsk Oblast. The analysis shows that the accounting of multiplier effect reveals the full range of possible effects of the program that can significantly affect the adoption of the decision to initiate actions necessary for their implementation.
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Статья научная
The article presents the comparative analysis of the conclusions of the Accounts Chamber on the draft laws on the federal budget, executed in 2013 and 2012. The specifics of the conclusion on the draft law on the federal budget for 2014-2016 are characterized. The article highlights critical remarks of the Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation on the given draft law, in particular with regard to the economic and financial parameters associated with the implementation of the Decrees of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2012.
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Actors of rural autonomous household: meanings and results
Статья научная
The article examines the main areas of life of self-employed in agriculture from the position of the meanings of life, defined as the goals - principles of life activity. The self-employed include those heads of households who, having passed the initial adjustment and relying on their human potential, use the reserves of new household forms in the local environment, having partially or completely terminated their labor relations with an agricultural enterprise. They have no farm land, they do not have the status of farmers, nevertheless they live and operate according to similar technology. In terms of material wellbeing they surpass their fellow villagers, who are limited to work in an agricultural enterprise. In the context of free employment choice, these actors adhere to certain attitudes and guidelines, conforming (with varying degrees of completeness) to the norms and requirements of the institutions surrounding them. We have described the problems that arise in families whose lifestyle is determined by the objects of their household - plant and animal life. On the basis of our research we have defined the contours of the self-employment actors' creativity and the opportunity limitations of implementing the meanings of household, which is explained by the violation of conjugations in interaction with large agricultural entities, destruction of connections and relations in the production and sale of products. We have found that depending on the changes in a family life, with the transformation of such indicators as age, health, achievement of ultimate goals (for example, the completion of children's education in universities or, on the contrary, their return to the village), the head and family members constantly cross the formal and essential boundaries of the pre-established status, the scale of activity and, in general, the space mastered and not mastered by them. The study of the social experience of autonomous family household contributes to a deeper comprehensive understanding of the deployment of modernization in the village in the context of the conjunction of innovative and traditional trends.
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Actual problems of small business development in the Khantia-Mansia autonomous okrug - Ugra
Статья научная
The article examines the dynamics of the main indicators characterizing the activity of the small-scale enterprises in the Khantia-Mansia Autonomous Okrug. The article identifies the main problems of small-scale business in Ugra and determines the trends of the small businesses development in the okrug.
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Acute issues of Russia's socio-cultural modernization
Статья научная
The need of socio-economic modernization is one of the main challenges of the 21st century facing the government, business and population of many countries. The solution to modernization tasks is unique for each country and is stipulated by a particular situation. Of special importance for Russia is the issue concerning the gap between population living standards in different, sometimes neighbouring, regions and, an overall significant lag in the living conditions of Russians compared with the inhabitants of developed countries. A necessary condition for successful modernization policy is the elaboration of specific national modernization strategies, considering the specifics of socio-cultural development of not only the whole Russia, but of each region.
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Adaptation of companies in the Republic of Karelia to the economic recession in Russia in 2014-2015
Статья научная
Regional companies in Russia found themselves in unique conditions of negative consequences of sanctions and reducing resource revenues in resource-driven Russian economy. Regional companies are not ready to the new economic reality, which makes it a hallmark of the economic recession in 2014- 2015. Our study captures the reaction of regional companies to sharp market changes and selection of new adaptive patterns of behavior aimed at developing and sustaining business. The purpose for the study is to assess the impact of the economic recession in Russia in 2014-2015 on the adaptation of companies in the Republic of Karelia to recession conditions. The impact of events was recorded directly from the estimates and intentions of management in the process of conducting half-formalized in-depth interviews with companies' leaders. Based on the method of quota arrangement, we selected key stakeholder companies in 3 regions in the Republic of Karelia and made a list of special respondents occupying leading positions in the companies...
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Administration of regional budgets in 2016: the crisis has not been overcome
Статья научная
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev speaking in the State Duma with the report on the work of the Russian Government claimed that regional budget shortage has been eliminated and the number of regions with public debt exceeding revenues has been reduced [4]. This discussion makes the problem of proper assessment of sub-federal budgets relevant. Their deficit administration and accumulation of debts have become a steady trend in recent years. The past year has been marked by increased revenues and spending cuts, but even under these conditions most regions were unable to implement balanced budget policy: 54 constituent entities of the Russian Federation were running deficits with debts exceeding half their own revenues, which caused the weakening of investment and consumer demand. The situation is exacerbated by the decline in energy prices, destabilization of the Federal budget and a general decline in business activity in the country. The federal policy is also tightening: since 2014, there has been a steady decrease in financial support for territories, which forces regional authorities to address the issues of financing through local sources of revenues...
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Agent-based modeling in the formation of an effective territorial network of forest roads
Статья научная
The paper considers conceptual and methodological aspects in creating computer simulation agent-based models which provide decision-making on the formation of an effective territorial network of forest roads. The key aim of the research is to interpret and test a service-oriented approach to building such models. The approach is based on the principle of interaction between the following objects distributed in space: service providers and consumers. We consider issues related to constructing and operating a network of forest roads used for forest harvesting processes. Complexity in solving these problems is due to a large number of interacting elements and estimated parameters that differ in their impact on the system depending on a particular territory. Thus, such problems are solved using simulation modeling methods, in particular, the agent-based approach, which is one of the most promising ones among them. At the same time, it is determined that they are constructed without using a formalized methodological framework, which does not allow us to interpret the results obtained here as a unified concept of formation of agent-based models in the subject area. To fill this niche, we propose our own concept based on the service-oriented approach. We present main fragments of formal description of the approach and describe some aspects of its applied interpretation using a prototype of game agentbased model in AnyLogic environment. We use general scientific methods: formalization, abstraction, generalization; methods of system analysis and agent-based modeling. As a result of the work we developed and tested our own concept of agent-based modeling of effective territorial transport infrastructure of the harvesting system. The novelty of the concept lies in the use of service-oriented approach. In addition, the concept can be used as a universal basis for building the models in question. This will require the development of methodological aspects of its application, a full-scale interpretation of the possible uses, as well as practical testing on real systems.
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Статья научная
The article addresses the task concerning the development of techniques for formalizing the behavior of agents-users of medical services in agent-based models designed to support decision-making on the spatial layout of health infrastructure facilities in the region. We analyze approaches to determining the behavior patterns of consumers of medical services and, on this basis, develop the structure of agents' behavior model. We consider the implementation of the proposed model with the help of fuzzy neural networks. While forming the network, we use the results of a sociological survey conducted by Vologda Research Center in the territory of the Vologda Oblast in 2020. Practical implementation of the network is carried out in the Microsoft Access environment. Using this tool, we conduct a number of experiments to determine residents' medical activity based on the initial data of the sociological survey. We use general scientific methods of formalization, abstraction, generalization, methods of system analysis, mathematical statistics, and fuzzy logic. The results of our work consist in designing the structure of behavior model for agents-consumers of medical services and methods for its implementation. Scientific novelty of our findings consists in the proposed structure of behavior model of agents-consumers of medical services and its practical implementation with the use of fuzzy neural networks in relation to the manifestation of medical activity. Practical significance of the results lies in the fact that the instrumental approaches proposed and partially tested in it will allow us to develop agent-based models of regional healthcare adequate to objective environmental conditions, taking into account citizens' attitudes and behavior motives in interaction with medical services. In the future, this will help us to put forward and adjust measures to improve the efficiency of spatial layout and functioning of networks. Further work will be related to the improvement of the proposed methods in the following areas: determining ways to train the developed fuzzy neural network and finding ways to implement the remaining elements of the developed model for agent behavior.
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Agent-based supercomputer demographic model of Russia: approbation analysis
Статья научная
The article presents an agent-based demographic model of Russia designed to run on supercomputers. The technologies used in the model allow researchers to create an artificial society with the number of agents up to 109 and effectively parallelize the work of the simulator. The software package designed to implement the model combines separate subsystems written in programming languages of different levels. On the one hand, this provides effective load balancing between computing processes and messaging between agents (implemented in C++), and on the other hand, this simplifies the development of model blocks that implement the simulation of demographic processes (implemented in C#). The demographic processes in the model are simulated based on the actions of individual agents, taking into account their family ties, which they maintain by exchanging messages. Key features of the demographic agent-based models are the following: a) dynamic change in the size and composition of populations of agents - removal of part of the agents (their “death”) and the emergence of new ones (“birth”); and b) separation of actions performed at the simulation step in stages, each of which can cause the revision of the general settings that are specific to regions or groups of agents, and/or exchange of messages between agents. In the course of computer experiments, the model has been tested on real data and has shown good results at testing for the following parameters: a) the quality of recreating the age-sex structure of the population for the country as a whole and in the regions with the use of the population of agents; b) the stability of the model and a low margin of error of the results of forecasting the main demographic indicators in comparison with the variants of Rosstat’s official forecast; c) efficiency of parallelization of the program code when running on supercomputers. The model is the basic one for an integrated regional simulation model that is currently being developed; however, the model can be useful as an independent forecasting tool.
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Agents of social change: determining identification criteria and designing an indicator model
Статья научная
Modern Russian society is undergoing major changes. The concept of social change has a long history of theoretical understanding; usually, two approaches, the evolutionary and the revolutionary, are distinguished. We consider this concept within the framework of a new post-modernist or organizational-activity paradigm, when the “social agent” plays an active transformative role. The problem is of a complex interdisciplinary nature, directly related to the theory of social change, social and human capital, and the creative class. We try to find out which social groups of Russian society support changes and can become their agent-guides, what distinguishes them from other people, what their share is in the modern social structure of society, region, city. The article provides a justification for the relevance of identifying agents of social change as a social basis for the transformation and development of the territory. Based on the analysis of foreign and domestic research experience, we design our own notion of For citation: Vorobeva I.N., Mekhova A.A. (2022). Agents of the term “agents of social change”, define the criteria for their identification, create an indicator model for empirical identification of the share of agents of social change in the social structure of the urban community. Theoretical judgments and conclusions are supported by empirical data from a sociological survey of Cherepovets residents. The choice of the city for approbation of the model is not accidental. Cherepovets has the status of a territory of advanced socio-economic development and is in dire need of agents of social change. According to an empirical study, in Cherepovets the core of social change is 4.6%, and the periphery of the core, which we designate as activists, is 17.4%. A comparison of the empirical results of our study and studies of leading Russian authors on the topic of social participation shows that Cherepovets, on average, reflects the general trend in Russia. The population as a whole has rather pronounced attitudes towards activity, while the behavioral practices expressed in our model in various forms of social participation are lagging behind significantly. We prove the validity of the developed model for studying the stated problem and empirically confirm that the development potential of the territory is largely determined by the presence of agents of social change in the social structure.
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