Статьи журнала - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Все статьи: 1587
Статья научная
Urban agglomerations currently play an important role in the spatial development of most countries, since they are key centers of economic growth, generation and diffusion of innovations. In theoretical and practical terms, as a rule, the greatest attention is paid to studying the largest and large urban agglomerations (under current legislation, in Russia these include agglomerations with a population of more than 1,000 and 500 thousand people, accordingly), while insufficient attention is paid to the real prerequisites and features of the development of other emerging/potential agglomerations (the so-called “second-tier” agglomerations). In this regard, the aim of the study is to identify features and challenges related to the intensification of agglomeration processes in Russia’s regions, taking into account the provision of positive effects. To achieve the goal, we use a wide range of general scientific (analysis, synthesis, systems) and applied economic and statistical methods (index, correlation analysis). Scientific significance of the study lies in the development of methodological approaches and tools for assessing agglomeration processes, determining their specifics in Russian agglomerations of the “second tier”. We reveal that the continuing concentration of a significant share of regional production, investment and population in the agglomerations under consideration is the key feature in their development. At the same time, in fact, agglomeration processes extend only to the core of the agglomeration and the territory closest to it; this is manifested in the convergence of their growth rates in key socio-economic indicators. These facts indicate a rather low development of the satellite zone of “second-tier” agglomerations and a weak transmission of positive effects to the periphery, as well as an excessive development of the core, which in the future may be a threat to the stable development of such agglomerations. In the final part of the work, we substantiate priority directions to increase the internal integration of urban agglomerations as open socio-economic systems that will ensure the generation of positive externalities and turn “second-tier” agglomerations into growth points at the macro and regional levels.
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Agricultural consulting in the system of innovative agriculture development of the north
Статья научная
The formation and development of agricultural consulting in Northern and Arctic territories requires consideration of peculiarities of agriculture functioning. The article reviews the essence and specific features of agricultural consulting services. The author presents her definition of the relevant service, justifies the socio-economic background of the agricultural consulting system, explains the key role of this system in innovation development and transfer in the agricultural sector. The article studies the regional features of formation of information-consulting service in the agricultural sector of the Komi Republic influenced by types of agricultural structures, human and scientific-educational potential, innovative activity of agricultural enterprises and private farms. The author analyzes current activities of consulting services and factors constraining its development. To increase the coverage of the information-consulting service for agricultural producers and rural population, disseminate innovation for medium and small agricultural structures, the author has developed directions of the agricultural consulting system development and suggested the scheme of location and maintenance of inter-municipal agricultural consulting centers, their provision with specialist and financial resources...
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Agricultural modernization and sustainable development under resource and environmental constraints
Статья научная
The agricultural modernization of any country must be considered in the light of its national conditions, its population, resources and economic and social conditions. China’s government clearly expresses the desire to promote agricultural modernization at the same pace with the in-depth development of industrialization, information technology, and urbanization, which is a major task for the construction of a moderately prosperous society and for the achievement of modernization. Due to the growing resource and environmental constraints, promoting the agricultural modernization must take the way of achieving its sustainable development based on the status quo of the environment and basic national conditions.
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Agriculture of the Vologda oblast on the eve of Russia's accession to the world trade organization
Статья научная
This article presents the main problems of the Vologda Oblast agricultural development, the rapid solution of which becomes even more important in the conditions of joining WTO. The authors also consider the region’s opportunities of food security provision. In general, the problems raised in the article, highlight the main directions of the necessary activities of the regional authorities and handling the threats that may emerge in the agricultural sector of the Oblast economy.
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Agriculture on the European north: All-Russian agricultural census results
Статья научная
On the basis of All-Russian agricultural census results of 2006 the analysis of the objects, resource potential and agriculture pattern of the European North of Russia is given in the article. The census results allow us to draw up a number of concrete guidelines on the development of government's agricultural policy.
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Alleviation of pensioners’ poverty - a key task for the state and society in contemporary Russia
Статья научная
Russia is shifting to market economy under the lingering post-crisis stagnation, and the aggravation of economic stratification of its population creates additional risks to the pension system that is in a state of constant reforming. The relevance of the research is substantiated by the fact that in scientific terms the issue of poverty has been studied very poorly: there are no socially and economically reasonable criteria and indicators for assessing poverty and welfare in specific categories of the population; the factors influencing the formation of conditions for poverty have not been revealed; there are no tools of the long-term government policy to overcome poverty, etc.
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An approach to modeling the investment attractiveness of the industry in the regional aspect
Статья научная
At present, attracting investments in Russia’s strategically important sectors remains a critical issue in the development of the domestic economy. Under the current sanctions pressure against the Russian Federation, the development of manufacturing industries is becoming the leading task in ensuring nationwide economic growth. The aim of the study is to develop a methodology for calculating the aggregated factor coefficient of investment attractiveness for a complex of manufacturing industries in the regions, based on econometric modeling. The investment attractiveness of a complex of manufacturing industries is understood as a set of significant factors that determine the inflow of investments into a complex of manufacturing industries. As a result of the study, we revealed that at the moment there is no unified generally accepted methodology for assessing the investment attractiveness of manufacturing industries; factors determining their investment attractiveness are not systematized; there are no studies devoted to identifying statistically significant factors for this type of economic activity. In this regard, a model was developed for selecting significant factors promoting investment attractiveness of a complex of manufacturing industries in Russia’s regions. According to the methodology, the final aggregated factor coefficient is formed on the basis of private indicators that were combined into groups of factors, which allows us to identify the most important factors affecting the investment attractiveness ofthe manufacturing industry in a particular region and identify strategies to improve their investment attractiveness. The analysis of the aggregated factor coefficient will help potential investors to determine in which regions the complex of manufacturing industries is most promising for investment, as well as what measures need to be taken to improve the investment attractiveness of the complex of manufacturing industries in regions with a low coefficient value. The evaluation results showed that the most significant factors are production, labor, and innovation factors promoting investment attractiveness of the manufacturing industry. Our approach and the results we obtained can be used by public and private investors to make a decision on the expediency of investments in the industry and by authorities when forming investment policy, taking into account regional industry specifics.
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Статья научная
The aim of the work is to assess the activities of entrepreneurs in the regions of the Republic of Belarus affected by the Chernobyl disaster. We use statistical analysis and findings of sociological studies to assess entrepreneurial activity in the context of the following new challenges: the need to move to the sixth technological paradigm based on a highly competitive socio-economic system of a mixed type combining elements of state planning and market relations; preserving the social structure of the Belarusian society amid unprecedented wealth stratification in other countries; overcoming the consequences of man-made disasters. The empirical basis includes the data of sociological questionnaire surveys conducted in 2021 and 2022 by the Center for Social and Humanities Studies of the Belarus State Economic University in collaboration with the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, within the framework of the research project “To carry out a sociological assessment of the entrepreneurial potential of the territories affected by the Chernobyl accident”. The findings of the research show considerable unity of moral and value priorities of entrepreneurs and the population. This reveals the degree of adaptability of the country’s socio-economic system to the challenges associated with the formation of a mixed economic model, in which elements of market management are new to Belarusians. We prove that entrepreneurs can be the vanguard of a mixed economy as the most competitive type for Belarus to shift to a society of the sixth technological paradigm, since they have qualities adequate to modern challenges: self-reliance, relying on one’s own capabilities, competencies, what everyone can do personally, on their own. One of the main advantages of business activity in Belarus is the low degree of cronyism, which helps to avoid the challenges of oligarchic capitalism and related unprecedented social stratification on a material basis. It is shown that entrepreneurs adequately assess the conditions for a successful start in various business areas. To a greater extent, a request has been formed to launch a business in the service sector, followed by the areas of specialized services - legal, medical spheres, production of goods, processing of products.
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An open letter of academician Zh.I. Alferov to the president of the Russian Federationv.V. Putin
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Статья научная
The article considers the main trends in the diversification of the global food system. The author proves that at the present time the dynamic development and globalization in the modern world economy require diversification of Belarusian agro-food complex in order to achieve its independence from crises, reduce risks of the external environment uncertainty, unforeseen circumstances (export embargoes and restrictions) and changes in consumer preferences and, ultimately, boost competitiveness and strengthen economic immunity and stability. At the same time, the pressure of the abundant food supply in the world market segments, ensured by consumer demand, makes the manufacturers follow the principle “from fork to farm”. Thus, it is consumers’ preferences that are often drivers of contradictory and competing shifts in the transformation of food systems. The survey shows that two opposite driving forces - the consumers’ desire for ready-to-use food products with the deep level of processing and the growing elite interest in the natural healthy diet - determine the progressive development of productive forces in the agricultural complex in the direction of innovative search of diverse, adapted to consumer demand, high-tech schemes of production, processing and distribution of food...
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Analysis and forecast of competitiveness of Russian investment equipment in the foreign markets
Статья научная
The conducted research was aimed at developing and advancing methods of studying the impact of investments with a high share of costs of machines and equipment, scientific studies and developments for competitiveness dynamics of Russian investment equipment and construction of forecast options for its export. The studied groups of investment equipment were formed from high-tech, technically complex, and expensive types of products. The object of the study is the competitiveness of domestic investment equipment in the foreign markets. We considered the expansion of the export geography, which allowed exploring the competitiveness in the main (traditional) markets and in the growing (including new ones) markets of the far abroad countries. The authors have assessed the demand stability. The tasks, achieved in the reported study, are aimed at identifying the dependencies of quantitative assessments of competitiveness on quantitative assessments of investment factors, impact of which determines the pace and efficiency of the development of investment equipment production at Russian enterprises. The developed system of indicators allows obtaining quantitative, voluminous, and price estimates of investment equipment exports to the foreign countries and to assess and predict on its basis the pace of high-tech and technological development of this important branch of domestic engineering. The results of the study show a necessity to significantly increase spending on research and update of production equipment. The growth of knowledge-intensive investments will make it possible to expand the range of investment equipment with technological competitiveness on the global market. The conducted research has shown that the tools, existing and applied in the Russian Federation, allow us to ensure the constructive dynamics of factors affecting the competitiveness of mechanical engineering and its products. However, the resources that determine the impact of these tools are still insufficient.
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Analysis of deindustrialization trends in Turkiye from an international comparative perspective
Статья научная
In this study, deindustrialization was examined within the international political economy approach, and comparative analyzes were made to explain the deindustrialization trends in selected countries, especially in Turkiye. According to the results, deindustrialization, as a developed country phenomenon that started to decline at the peak of industrial productivity and caused an increase in the service sector, spread to developing countries mainly after the 1990s, with the global restructuring of labor through the neoliberalizm. It has created an effect of industrialization in some of the developing economies and deindustrialization in others. It can be argued that the global effects of deindustrialization in developing countries are closely related to the economic policies of the nations before they entered the deindustrialization process. For example, Turkiye’s main distinguishing aspect is the rapid transition from import substitution policies to a free market economy, while industrial development is still ongoing. As a result, it can be argued that Turkiye entered the process of premature deindustrialization in employment in terms of a direct transition from agriculture to the service sector and the inability of the service sector to absorb the labor force emerging from agriculture and industry, but this is a non-structural phase that can be overcome with alternative socioeconomic and spatial planning.
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Analysis of innovation potential of northern Russian regions
Статья научная
The purpose of the study is to improve theoretical and methodological techniques for assessing innovation potential and determine the main areas of scientific and technological development of Northern Russian regions. The theoretical part of the article reveals the essence of innovative potential and provides the author's classification of approaches to its measurement. It demonstrates that the majority of modern domestic and foreign studies are aimed at assessing the territory's innovative potential through the calculation of the integrated index; however, this leads to the merging of diverse characteristics into a unified scale. The paper describes the features and limitations of factor analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis of the phenomenon under study, monitoring of specific profile and inward similarities of the analyzed objects. Factor analysis has revealed five most important characteristics which determine innovative development of Northern Russian regions: level of scientific development of the regions, level of inventive activity, human capacity, level of financing of innovation, ICT development...
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Analysis of migration flows of the population of the Vologda oblast districts
Статья научная
The article presents the research on the main directions and scale of migration in municipal districts of the Vologda Oblast and considers the main types of migration and the specifics of their statistical accounting. The data by Rosstat served as a basis upon which a general analysis of migration dynamics in the Vologda Oblast districts was carried out; and the article presents its periodization. Three main periods are defined: the “migration shock” of 1991-1999 after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the migration stability of 2000-2008 and the post-crisis rural out-migration that began in 2009 and is increasing year by year. At the same time, gross migration indicators have shown high sensitivity to significant socio-economic change, in particular, to the economic crises of 1999 and 2008. The article describes the main age and gender characteristics of migrants, it has been determined that the most active migrants are girls aged 15-29, who move from rural to urban settlements...
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Analysis of tariff regulation in housing and utilities economy (in case of the city of Vologda)
Статья научная
The issues of tariff regulation in the housing and communal services in Vologda are considered in the article. On the basis of collected data about public payments for housing and communal services the growth of rates for these services has been identified. State authorities regulating tariffs and their competence are defined. A scheme of tariff, their characteristics and activities restraining growth of tariffs for public utilities are considered.
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Статья научная
Labor resource is the necessary productive factor in regional economic development, and one of important indexes to evaluate regional economic competitiveness. The great economic achievement brought by the 30-year reform and opening up of China is due to the fact that China brought the backward advantage of “demographic dividend” into play, promoted the fast development of industrialization and urbanization, and became the second largest economy in the world. The entity of “demographic dividend” is the non-agricultural migrant population, i.e., migrant workers. The transfer employment of migrant workers has typical regional liquidity, and the imbalance of regional economy causes the flow of many migrant workers. In order to achieve harmonious development and coordinated development, underdeveloped areas must understand the character and regulation, adopt positive industrial policy and supportive policy, guide the reasonable flow of migrant workers, and realize the transfer of local employment and citizenization of migrant workers, which can enhance regional economic competitiveness.
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Статья научная
Transaction costs emerge in different types of logistics activities and influence the material flow and the accompanying financial and information flows; due to this fact, the information support and assessment are important tasks for the enterprise. The paper analyzes transaction costs in logistics for automotive manufacturers; according to the analysis, the level of these costs in any functional area of “logistics supply” ranges from 1.5 to 20%. These are only the official figures of transaction costs of enterprises that do not take into consideration implicit costs. Despite the growing interest in transaction costs in logistics in the latest fifteen years, this topic is covered rather poorly in Russian literature; the definition of “transaction costs” is unclear, there is no technique of their information reflection and assessment. We have developed the methods for information reflection of transaction costs that can be used by automotive enterprises. Each enterprise will have an opportunity to choose the most suitable technique for information reflection of transaction costs or to compare the level of transaction costs when using different techniques...
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Analysis of trends and development forecast of small enterprises in Russia
Статья научная
This article describes the researching results of trends and development tendencies of small enterprises in Russia and its regions. It presents a number of developed economic and mathematical models that describe the structure and distribution of small-scale enterprises depending on the number of employees. Some indicators of small business according to the types of economic activity are presented here. The author considers the production functions reflecting the dependence of turnover on two factors and describes the forecast results of the main indicators of small business in 2030.
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