Branch-wise economy. Рубрика в журнале - Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast
Статья научная
The relevance of the study is due to the increasing risks of bankruptcy of chemical industry enterprises in the context of global socio-economic instability. The aim of the work is to design forecast scenarios for the dynamics of the probability of chemical industry enterprises bankruptcy, taking into account the influence of internal and external factors. The paper uses a methodological approach to forecasting the probability of enterprises bankruptcy, which combines discriminant analysis according to the modified Altman method, multiple least squares regression analysis, assessing the impact of internal and external factors on the probability of enterprises bankruptcy, as well as autoregressive modeling with a moving average (ARIMA/ARMA) to build forecast scenarios (inertial, extremely pessimistic and optimistic) for the probability of bankruptcy. The study uses data from the primary reporting of chemical industry enterprises in the Sverdlovsk Region for the period from 1999 to 2023 and statistical data from Rosstat. The study has found that large and small chemical enterprises are more susceptible to bankruptcy risks than midsize ones due to high creditworthiness, insufficient amount of stock and own working capital. We identify main factors influencing the probability of bankruptcy for each group of chemical industry enterprises: for large enterprises, it is the provision of own working capital, profitability of non-current assets, number of economically active population in the Sverdlovsk Region, amount of costs for innovative activities of organizations in the region; for midsize enterprises, it is the provision of total capital and profitability of current assets; for small enterprises, it is the provision of own working capital and inventory turnover. The projected scenario forecasts allow us to establish a low probability of bankruptcy for midsize chemical enterprises, an increased probability for large enterprises and a significant probability for small enterprises. Our approach to scenario modeling and forecasting the probability of bankruptcy, taking into account the influence of various factors, tested on the example of chemical enterprises, can be used to develop strategic plans and measures of state support for industry enterprises aimed at reducing the risks of financial insolvency and increasing their financial stability.
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Sectoral and territorial specifics of value-added chains in Russia: the input-output approach
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This paper shows the growing role of domestic demand in the development of the modern economy. We consider the capacity of domestic markets of the largest countries of the world. We prove that the low volume of domestic demand inhibits economic dynamics and worsens the quality of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation. We consider that a promising direction for expanding domestic consumer and investment demand is the implementation of state policy to increase the incomes of the population, companies and the state in the framework of lengthening their own value-added chains that produce goods and services for final use. In this regard, the goal of this study is to analyze the existing value-added chains, assess the degree of their fragmentation, sectoral and territorial specifics. The input-output theory serves as a methodological basis for our study. The information source is represented by basic input-output tables and the data of the Unified Interdepartmental Statistical Information System. The novelty of the research consists in adjusting the multidisciplinary approach to the assessment of fragmentation of production to suit the needs of the regional level and in identifying modern patterns in the functioning of Russian value-added chains on the basis of the approbation of the approach on the materials of Russian regions. According to the results of the calculations we reveal the average position of 125 branches of the Russian economy in the supply and sales chains. We substantiate the degree of fragmentation of production chains of various industries; we substantiate the factors that determine the length of a production process. We calculate the average distance along the sales chain, which the goods cover to the moment of their use by the end consumer. We consider regional fragmentation of production in Russia. We reveal a number of statistically significant dependencies between the position of regions in the value-added chains and their socio-economic development performance.
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Spatial aspects of electric power industry development in Russia's European North
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The article deals with the Karelian-Kola and Dvina-Pechora parts of the electric power system located in Russia’s European North (REN) as the structures of trans-regional level. A comparative system analysis of these objects revealed their common and distinctive features, and the problems of their spatial organization. As a result, important factors of enhancing integration ties have been determined. Besides, the article highlights the main directions of spatial development of REN power supply system.
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Статья научная
The specifics of agricultural development management in the remote northern territories should be always taken into consideration; otherwise modernization processes in the agricultural sector would be impeded. The article defines the concept of agriculture modernization and highlights its necessity. It reveals the peculiarities, opportunities and limitations of technological and socio-economic development of agriculture in the peripheral northern rural territories of the Komi Republic. The article studies agriculture modernization for the period of the 1960s-1980s, and under market reforms. It shows the impact of market reforms on the change of economic and social conditions of agriculture in the peripheral areas of the northern region. For stimulating agricultural production modernization, the authors propose a target-programme method of managing the agriculture in peripheral territories.
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Статья научная
The article substantiates the necessity of modernization and the role of highly qualified personnel in the technological and socio-economic development of the agrarian sector in the Komi Republic. The article considers the provision of agriculture with personnel in the pre-reform period and describes the current situation concerning the professional level of managers, specialists of agricultural enterprises and workers of mass professions. The factors impeding the retaining of personnel in rural areas have been revealed. Besides, the article proposes a set of managerial, organizational and economic measures for the staffing of modernization and innovation development of agricultural production.
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Статья научная
The article discusses the current state and the main trends in the development of agriculture (on the example of agricultural enterprises in the Vologda Oblast). Nowadays there is a trend of decline in the production of basic agricultural products. The insufficient financing of agricultural enterprises is one of the key reasons for this situation. Internal and external sources of funding can be such tools. As world practice shows, the largest share in the funds, which are at the disposal of agricultural enterprises, accounts for direct budgetary financing. However, in the Russian Federation there is another trend: over the last decades there is noticeable reduction in direct state support of agricultural producers. In addition, in the framework of Russia's accession to the WTO there will be further decline in such support and simultaneous transfer of financial burden onto agricultural enterprises. Therefore, the government faces an acute problem of planning and forecasting volumes of state support and earnings of agricultural enterprises...
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Статья научная
The main goal of the present study is to consider the specifics of current state and strategic management of development of enterprises within the military-industrial complex in the dynamic environment of the global market and determine the most effective ways of their development on the example of Russian helicopter industry. Methodology and tools of the study are based on the comparison and comparative evaluation of major Russian and foreign corporations engaged in development and production of helicopters. The authors analyze current state and strategic management of the helicopter industry on the basis of information available in the public domain. The source of the main problems of functioning of military-industrial complex enterprises, in particular, in the helicopter industry, can be found in the specifics of strategic management of its development, which is determined by major holdings under the close supervision of the government. One of the most important ways to develop enterprises of this industry is to diversify civil production in order to increase the output and improve the financial situation and, on the other hand, to reduce the dependence of enterprises on the state defense order...
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Strengthening the tourism appeal of Russian territories: current trends and management practices
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The article is devoted to an acute issue of regional governance - the development of tourism appeal of Russian territories. The article discusses the concept of “tourism appeal”, substantiates the author's viewpoint in relation to its content. The research methods by the author include document analysis and the sociological survey of experts (heads of local authorities). Statistical and sociological data served as the basis for determining the specifics and problems of tourism development in the Russian Federation reflected in the objective and subjective indicators of tourism infrastructure performance. The article determines the malfunctions of modern management practices in tourism development in the Russian Federation; it also reveals the main problems related to the implementation of program-target management methods in modern government and regional policy. The authors make a conclusion that the implementation of program-target methods of development of the tourism appeal of territories is associated with a number of drawbacks that limit their effectiveness; they distinguish the following main problems that emerge in the implementation of the federal target program “Development of domestic and inbound tourism in the Russian Federation (2011-2018)”: financial risks; the declarative principle of selection of regions for participation in the federal target program; focus on the achievement of economic indicators - these problems make it difficult to assess the long-term prospects of aspects of tourism appeal such as the creation and/or development of unique tourist attractions, the image of a territory, high threshold values of co-financing of expenditure obligations to implement the programs for regional budgets...
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Structural changes in the economy: searching for sectoral drivers of growth
Статья научная
In the conditions of a system-wide economic crisis and destabilization of the external environment, the economy of the Russian Federation and its regions is experiencing structural limitations, which are associated with its imbalance. As a result, domestic demand for manufactured products is reducing; such a situation does not encourage enterprises to increase their output. This makes it necessary to search for the ways to eliminate structural disproportions and provide economic growth in modern economic conditions. One of such ways is to promote sectoral drivers of growth, that is, those industries and sectors of the national economy, the increase in demand for products in which has a significant positive impact on the economy. In this regard, the goal of this article is to identify and scientifically substantiate the need to stimulate the production of goods and services in economic sectors so as to promote structural changes in the economy at the national and regional levels. In this study, we consider mechanical engineering, information and communication technologies and tourism as drivers, which have a large multiplier effect and contribute to economic growth. The article assesses the consequences of stimulating the selected sectors of the economy in the context of structural changes both at the nationwide level and in the territorial context; this provision forms the scientific novelty of the study. The findings of the study reveal problems in development of mechanical engineering, information and communication technologies and tourism, confirm the importance of their development for the economy; the importance is expressed in a significant increase in the main economic indicators due to the increase in the production of goods and services. We use general scientific methods such as analysis, synthesis, comparison, generalization, and the tools based on the input-output methodology. In the future, we plan to continue our work aimed at determining the correspondence of the parameters of development of these sectors contained in the strategic documents and the results obtained in the study for a deeper understanding of the problems of structural adjustment of the economy.
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Статья научная
The research subject in the article is the correlation between evaluation indicators of primary energy resources in the fuel and energy sector in the Northwestern Federal District of the country. The purpose for the study is to evaluate the primary energy resources of the fuel and energy sector in the Northwestern Federal District in terms of economic, technological, energy, social, and environmental parameters with the use of balanced scorecard (BSC) for sustainable development of the sector in the Northwestern Federal District as a whole. Methods. The article proposes the methodology for territorial decomposition of the balanced scorecard for evaluating primary energy resources in the Northwestern Federal District. The region's balanced scorecard decomposition of evaluation of primary energy resources in the case of the Arkhangelsk Oblast fuel and energy sector, including Nenets Autonomous Okrug, is determined; the authors identify the degree of stability of the fuel land energy sector in the Arkhangelsk Oblast, according to the following parameters of sustainable development of the energy sector in the Northwestern Federal District: economic, technological, energy, social, environmental...
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The agricultural sector of the Pechora-Ural North
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The article reveals the rural sector’s role in food supply of the population of the Komi Republic arctic and subarctic territories (the Pechora-Ural North). It considers conditions, analyses resources, organizational-legal management forms in agricultural production. The study indicates the agriculture status in the pre-reform (1960-1980) and market upgrade periods (since 1992) and the reforms’ impact on socio-economic processes in the industry. The article investigates obstacles to the agricultural sector development. It proposes development directions of reindeer and cattle breeding. It recommends to accelerate the development and adoption of the law “On reindeer breeding in the Russian Federation”, a federal target program for the reindeer breeding development, and it also proposes to enhance inter-regional relations in the field of joint systems of pastures control. The research highlights the necessity to strengthen the material and technological base of the dual purpose cattle breeding, to increase financial support of traditional Northern branches.
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The current state and specifics of small business development in Russia
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The formation of the small business sector is one of the most promising areas of the country's socio-economic development. In this regard, assessing formation dynamics and determining the problems and areas of development of the sector is of particular relevance. The purpose for the research is to analyze the current state and identify the peculiarities of small business development in Russia. To achieve this purpose the following statistical research methods have been used: data summary and grouping, calculation of integrative indicators (absolute, relative values), construction of dynamics series. The author also used general scientific methods such as generalization, induction, analysis and synthesis, etc. Based on statistical data with the use of these methods, the author analyzed tendencies of small businesses development in the context of indicators characterizing the dynamics of a number of small enterprises and their territorial distribution, sectoral structure, employment in the small business sector, enterprise financial and economic activity, their lending, etc...
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Статья научная
The aim of the study is to assess the impact of geographical factors on trade in the Asia-Pacific region. We show that physical distance is the key parameter in assessing the influence of geographical factors on trade within the framework of gravity dependence. The estimates obtained confirm the validity of the hypothesis concerning a long-term reduction in the negative impact of physical distance calculated in various ways on trade in the Asia-Pacific region, indicating the invariance in the choice of values of this parameter to determine the general trend of the influence of geographical factors on commodity exchange in the subglobal region. It is determined that the use of an arithmetic mean physical distance is more acceptable for obtaining correct estimates of the influence of geographical factors on trade in the Asia-Pacific region in terms of compliance with formal criteria for gravitational modeling. The negative impact of physical distance on trade in the Asia-Pacific region has decreased by almost 13% by 2021 compared to 1993, indicating a high intensity of commodity exchange in the subglobal region. The estimates obtained confirm the assumption that the land border has a positive impact on trade turnover in the Asia-Pacific region, which increased by 56% in 1993-2021. We find that the presence of a land border contributed to the expansion of trade between border economies in comparison with other countries of the Asia-Pacific region by 208.3% in 2021. The assessment shows the absence of a statistically significant impact of other factors - the colonial past and linguistic community - on trade in the Asia-Pacific region; this indicates the leveling of ties formed in the past due to the dominance of gravitational attraction between economies in terms of reducing barriers in interactions between them. It is shown that against the background of a decrease in comparative transport costs in the Asia-Pacific region, the current sanctions against Russia are able to limit the geographical distribution of Russian exports, reducing it to the neighborhood markets of the subglobal region, where the Russian economy will experience an increasing gravitational pull from China.
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Статья научная
The instability of market economy development causes continuous changes in the activity of higher educational establishments. The article deals with the processes, taking place in the system of higher professional education in the Russian Federation in recent decades. On the basis of the analysis of statistical data and normative acts of the Government and Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, the key global and national trends in higher education are identified: increasing demand for higher education, resulted in its considerable offer (the growth of quantitative indicators is not always accompanied by improvement of higher education quality); reduction in the total number of students due to the demographic situation worsening; transition to a multi-level system of higher education under the Bologna process; change in specialties patterns and directions of training specialists with higher professional education due to the economy structural reforms and labor market needs; aggravation of competition. The tendencies lead to the emergence of demographic, political and economic risks. To reduce negative impact of the external risks to the universities' activity it is necessary to develop corresponding state educational policy in the sphere of higher education and risk management in universities.
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The issues of asymmetry of corporate and public interests in the food market
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The article analyzes the present-day condition of Russia’s food market from the viewpoint of coordination of interests of population and corporate interests of producers. The author points out that the provisions of the existing legal documents regulating the quality and safety of foodstuffs facilitate the growth of asymmetry in these interests. The article considers the manifestation of imbalance and the consequences of consumption of foodstuffs, produced with the use of new technology and receipts. It proposes the ways to smooth the asymmetry of interests by enhancing the role of experts in drafting the state decisions on the development the national food market from the standpoint of complying with the principles of food products safety.
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Статья научная
The eastern regions of Russia are the convenient zone in which Russia cooperates with the actively developing Asian region. The key states of North-East Asia such as China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea are the largest participants in world trade at the present stage. The servicing of large-scale commodity flows with the European Union and the U.S. is provided by the market of transport services, by means of which the most effective schemes of delivery are built. Under these conditions, the transport system of the East of Russia has objective prerequisites for integration into the international transport system. The goal of our present study is to assess the potential of integration of the transport system of the Far East in the market of transport services in North-East Asia. At the same time, we assess integration opportunities with the help of dividing the territory of the East of Russia into districts based on the results of cluster analysis. Considering the achievement of the research goal, this approach is a new one. The need for division is due to the fact that the Far East is quite a large region, extremely heterogeneous in its internal composition, economic-geographical and socio-economic characteristics. Constituent entities of the Russian Federation as part of the Far Eastern Federal District have, among other things, different integration potential and level of development of the transport system. In the course of cluster analysis we use indicators of transport network development and the scale of foreign economic activity as the criteria for division. As a result of our calculations, we divide the Far East into five regions that differ in the potential of integration interaction of the transport system with the market of transport services in North-East Asia. The paper presents specific features of the selected areas, characteristics of transport systems and prospects for participation in the international transport market. In the future, it is possible to conduct a study taking into account the projects for development of the transport system of the Far East, which adjust the prospects for integration interactions.
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The problems of financing of higher education in modern Russia
Статья научная
The article deals with the financing of higher education in the current conditions on the materials of state universities in the Russian Federation. The author proves that education in general, including higher education, cannot be considered as a commercial service sector and universities as commercial organizations. He believes that it is a sphere of intellectual and spiritual activities that creates public goods, which must be provided by the state on a par with other public goods (ensuring of the state and social security, social security of the population, environmental security, etc.). This article presents the problems in the improvement of education expenditure planning and financing according to the objectives of modernizing the country at the new stage of its development.
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The role of conventional and alternative energy in the regions of the North
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The article considers the specifics of energy supply in the Northern regions of Russia, the advantages and disadvantages of conventional and alternative energy. It is shown that large power plants will focus on conventional sources of energy for a long time. Alternative energy can play an important role in supplying power to small decentralized consumers. The development of alternative energy is also necessary to test new power generation technologies.
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The role of industrial production localization in the import substitution policy
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The article is devoted to defining the role of localization of industrial production in the implementation of the import substitution policy. The methodological framework of the research consists of the system approach, methods of structural, object, functional, and statistical analysis, as well as the method of expert estimations. The article reviews the concept of “import substitution” and “localization”; it is concluded that the implementation of the import substitution policy is inextricably linked with the localization. It provides examples of successful localization policy in individual industries (automotive, pharmaceutical and railway engineering), proves its effectiveness in creating high-tech industries for industrial output. The mechanism of localization in the railway engineering sector, whose competitiveness is currently provided largely by imported technology, is discussed in the case of locomotive engineering and rolling stock manufacturing for high-speed operation...
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The role of the fuel sector of subarctic regions in the Komi Republic economy
Статья научная
The article considers the approach towards the improvement of the management of regional development, which is based on determining the character and direction of the influence of a number of factors on regional development by applying the method of principal components. The approbation of the suggested approach to the statistical data of Russian regions for 2000-2010 in terms of the region’s major subsystems indicated the absence of progressive development tendencies, as well as made it possible to determine the character and the direction of the influence of the investigated factors, which in the regional management practice permit taking the regions to the sustainable development pathway, to be determined.
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